arXiv subjects

Bryon Aragam

Publications and source records attributed to Bryon Aragam.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Learning latent causal graphs via mixture oracles

We study the problem of reconstructing a causal graphical model from data in the presence of latent variables. The main problem of interest is recovering the causal structure over the latent variables while allowing for general, potentially nonlinear dependence between the variables. In many practical problems, the dependence between raw observations (e.g. pixels in an image) is much less relevant than the dependence between certain high-level, latent features (e.g. concepts or objects), and this is the setting of interest. We provide conditions under which both the latent representations and the underlying latent causal model are identifiable by a reduction to a mixture oracle. These results highlight an intriguing connection between the well-studied problem of learning the order of a mixture model and the problem of learning the bipartite structure between observables and unobservables. The proof is constructive, and leads to several algorithms for explicitly reconstructing the full graphical model. We discuss efficient algorithms and provide experiments illustrating the algorithms in practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Efficient Bayesian network structure learning via local Markov boundary search

We analyze the complexity of learning directed acyclic graphical models from observational data in general settings without specific distributional assumptions. Our approach is information-theoretic and uses a local Markov boundary search procedure in order to recursively construct ancestral sets in the underlying graphical model. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that for certain graph ensembles, a simple forward greedy search algorithm (i.e. without a backward pruning phase) suffices to learn the Markov boundary of each node. This substantially improves the sample complexity, which we show is at most polynomial in the number of nodes. This is then applied to learn the entire graph under a novel identifiability condition that generalizes existing conditions from the literature. As a matter of independent interest, we establish finite-sample guarantees for the problem of recovering Markov boundaries from data. Moreover, we apply our results to the special case of polytrees, for which the assumptions simplify, and provide explicit conditions under which polytrees are identifiable and learnable in polynomial time. We further illustrate the performance of the algorithm, which is easy to implement, in a simulation study. Our approach is general, works for discrete or continuous distributions without distributional assumptions, and as such sheds light on the minimal assumptions required to efficiently learn the structure of directed graphical models from data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Tradeoffs of Linear Mixed Models in Genome-wide Association Studies

Motivated by empirical arguments that are well-known from the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) literature, we study the statistical properties of linear mixed models (LMMs) applied to GWAS. First, we study the sensitivity of LMMs to the inclusion of a candidate SNP in the kinship matrix, which is often done in practice to speed up computations. Our results shed light on the size of the error incurred by including a candidate SNP, providing a justification to this technique in order to trade-off velocity against veracity. Second, we investigate how mixed models can correct confounders in GWAS, which is widely accepted as an advantage of LMMs over traditional methods. We consider two sources of confounding factors, population stratification and environmental confounding factors, and study how different methods that are commonly used in practice trade-off these two confounding factors differently.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2021

NOTMAD: Estimating Bayesian Networks with Sample-Specific Structures and Parameters

Context-specific Bayesian networks (i.e. directed acyclic graphs, DAGs) identify context-dependent relationships between variables, but the non-convexity induced by the acyclicity requirement makes it difficult to share information between context-specific estimators (e.g. with graph generator functions). For this reason, existing methods for inferring context-specific Bayesian networks have favored breaking datasets into subsamples, limiting statistical power and resolution, and preventing the use of multidimensional and latent contexts. To overcome this challenge, we propose NOTEARS-optimized Mixtures of Archetypal DAGs (NOTMAD). NOTMAD models context-specific Bayesian networks as the output of a function which learns to mix archetypal networks according to sample context. The archetypal networks are estimated jointly with the context-specific networks and do not require any prior knowledge. We encode the acyclicity constraint as a smooth regularization loss which is back-propagated to the mixing function; in this way, NOTMAD shares information between context-specific acyclic graphs, enabling the estimation of Bayesian network structures and parameters at even single-sample resolution. We demonstrate the utility of NOTMAD and sample-specific network inference through analysis and experiments, including patient-specific gene expression networks which correspond to morphological variation in cancer.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Structure learning in polynomial time: Greedy algorithms, Bregman information, and exponential families

Greedy algorithms have long been a workhorse for learning graphical models, and more broadly for learning statistical models with sparse structure. In the context of learning directed acyclic graphs, greedy algorithms are popular despite their worst-case exponential runtime. In practice, however, they are very efficient. We provide new insight into this phenomenon by studying a general greedy score-based algorithm for learning DAGs. Unlike edge-greedy algorithms such as the popular GES and hill-climbing algorithms, our approach is vertex-greedy and requires at most a polynomial number of score evaluations. We then show how recent polynomial-time algorithms for learning DAG models are a special case of this algorithm, thereby illustrating how these order-based algorithms can be rigourously interpreted as score-based algorithms. This observation suggests new score functions and optimality conditions based on the duality between Bregman divergences and exponential families, which we explore in detail. Explicit sample and computational complexity bounds are derived. Finally, we provide extensive experiments suggesting that this algorithm indeed optimizes the score in a variety of settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A polynomial-time algorithm for learning nonparametric causal graphs

We establish finite-sample guarantees for a polynomial-time algorithm for learning a nonlinear, nonparametric directed acyclic graphical (DAG) model from data. The analysis is model-free and does not assume linearity, additivity, independent noise, or faithfulness. Instead, we impose a condition on the residual variances that is closely related to previous work on linear models with equal variances. Compared to an optimal algorithm with oracle knowledge of the variable ordering, the additional cost of the algorithm is linear in the dimension $d$ and the number of samples $n$. Finally, we compare the proposed algorithm to existing approaches in a simulation study.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Automated Dependence Plots

In practical applications of machine learning, it is necessary to look beyond standard metrics such as test accuracy in order to validate various qualitative properties of a model. Partial dependence plots (PDP), including instance-specific PDPs (i.e., ICE plots), have been widely used as a visual tool to understand or validate a model. Yet, current PDPs suffer from two main drawbacks: (1) a user must manually sort or select interesting plots, and (2) PDPs are usually limited to plots along a single feature. To address these drawbacks, we formalize a method for automating the selection of interesting PDPs and extend PDPs beyond showing single features to show the model response along arbitrary directions, for example in raw feature space or a latent space arising from some generative model. We demonstrate the usefulness of our automated dependence plots (ADP) across multiple use-cases and datasets including model selection, bias detection, understanding out-of-sample behavior, and exploring the latent space of a generative model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Data

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Learning Sparse Nonparametric DAGs

We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to a fully continuous program for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this algebraic characterization to nonparametric SEM by leveraging nonparametric sparsity based on partial derivatives, resulting in a continuous optimization problem that can be applied to a variety of nonparametric and semiparametric models including GLMs, additive noise models, and index models as special cases. Unlike existing approaches that require specific modeling choices, loss functions, or algorithms, we present a completely general framework that can be applied to general nonlinear models (e.g. without additive noise), general differentiable loss functions, and generic black-box optimization routines. The code is available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Identifiability of Nonparametric Mixture Models and Bayes Optimal Clustering

Motivated by problems in data clustering, we establish general conditions under which families of nonparametric mixture models are identifiable, by introducing a novel framework involving clustering overfitted \emph{parametric} (i.e. misspecified) mixture models. These identifiability conditions generalize existing conditions in the literature, and are flexible enough to include for example mixtures of Gaussian mixtures. In contrast to the recent literature on estimating nonparametric mixtures, we allow for general nonparametric mixture components, and instead impose regularity assumptions on the underlying mixing measure. As our primary application, we apply these results to partition-based clustering, generalizing the notion of a Bayes optimal partition from classical parametric model-based clustering to nonparametric settings. Furthermore, this framework is constructive so that it yields a practical algorithm for learning identified mixtures, which is illustrated through several examples on real data. The key conceptual device in the analysis is the convex, metric geometry of probability measures on metric spaces and its connection to the Wasserstein convergence of mixing measures. The result is a flexible framework for nonparametric clustering with formal consistency guarantees.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Learning Sample-Specific Models with Low-Rank Personalized Regression

Modern applications of machine learning (ML) deal with increasingly heterogeneous datasets comprised of data collected from overlapping latent subpopulations. As a result, traditional models trained over large datasets may fail to recognize highly predictive localized effects in favour of weakly predictive global patterns. This is a problem because localized effects are critical to developing individualized policies and treatment plans in applications ranging from precision medicine to advertising. To address this challenge, we propose to estimate sample-specific models that tailor inference and prediction at the individual level. In contrast to classical ML models that estimate a single, complex model (or only a few complex models), our approach produces a model personalized to each sample. These sample-specific models can be studied to understand subgroup dynamics that go beyond coarse-grained class labels. Crucially, our approach does not assume that relationships between samples (e.g. a similarity network) are known a priori. Instead, we use unmodeled covariates to learn a latent distance metric over the samples. We apply this approach to financial, biomedical, and electoral data as well as simulated data and show that sample-specific models provide fine-grained interpretations of complicated phenomena without sacrificing predictive accuracy compared to state-of-the-art models such as deep neural networks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

On perfectness in Gaussian graphical models

Knowing when a graphical model is perfect to a distribution is essential in order to relate separation in the graph to conditional independence in the distribution, and this is particularly important when performing inference from data. When the model is perfect, there is a one-to-one correspondence between conditional independence statements in the distribution and separation statements in the graph. Previous work has shown that almost all models based on linear directed acyclic graphs as well as Gaussian chain graphs are perfect, the latter of which subsumes Gaussian graphical models (i.e., the undirected Gaussian models) as a special case. However, the complexity of chain graph models leads to a proof of this result which is indirect and mired by the complications of parameterizing this general class. In this paper, we directly approach the problem of perfectness for the Gaussian graphical models, and provide a new proof, via a more transparent parametrization, that almost all such models are perfect. Our approach is based on, and substantially extends, a construction of Lněnička and Matúš showing the existence of a perfect Gaussian distribution for any graph.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

The neighborhood lattice for encoding partial correlations in a Hilbert space

Neighborhood regression has been a successful approach in graphical and structural equation modeling, with applications to learning undirected and directed graphical models. We extend these ideas by defining and studying an algebraic structure called the neighborhood lattice based on a generalized notion of neighborhood regression. We show that this algebraic structure has the potential to provide an economic encoding of all conditional independence statements in a Gaussian distribution (or conditional uncorrelatedness in general), even in the cases where no graphical model exists that could "perfectly" encode all such statements. We study the computational complexity of computing these structures and show that under a sparsity assumption, they can be computed in polynomial time, even in the absence of the assumption of perfectness to a graph. On the other hand, assuming perfectness, we show how these neighborhood lattices may be "graphically" computed using the separation properties of the so-called partial correlation graph. We also draw connections with directed acyclic graphical models and Bayesian networks. We derive these results using an abstract generalization of partial uncorrelatedness, called partial orthogonality, which allows us to use algebraic properties of projection operators on Hilbert spaces to significantly simplify and extend existing ideas and arguments. Consequently, our results apply to a wide range of random objects and data structures, such as random vectors, data matrices, and functions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a purely \emph{continuous} optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree. Code implementing the proposed algorithm is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Fault Tolerance in Iterative-Convergent Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) training algorithms often possess an inherent self-correcting behavior due to their iterative-convergent nature. Recent systems exploit this property to achieve adaptability and efficiency in unreliable computing environments by relaxing the consistency of execution and allowing calculation errors to be self-corrected during training. However, the behavior of such systems are only well understood for specific types of calculation errors, such as those caused by staleness, reduced precision, or asynchronicity, and for specific types of training algorithms, such as stochastic gradient descent. In this paper, we develop a general framework to quantify the effects of calculation errors on iterative-convergent algorithms and use this framework to design new strategies for checkpoint-based fault tolerance. Our framework yields a worst-case upper bound on the iteration cost of arbitrary perturbations to model parameters during training. Our system, SCAR, employs strategies which reduce the iteration cost upper bound due to perturbations incurred when recovering from checkpoints. We show that SCAR can reduce the iteration cost of partial failures by 78% - 95% when compared with traditional checkpoint-based fault tolerance across a variety of ML models and training algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Sample Complexity of Nonparametric Semi-Supervised Learning

We study the sample complexity of semi-supervised learning (SSL) and introduce new assumptions based on the mismatch between a mixture model learned from unlabeled data and the true mixture model induced by the (unknown) class conditional distributions. Under these assumptions, we establish an $Ω(K\log K)$ labeled sample complexity bound without imposing parametric assumptions, where $K$ is the number of classes. Our results suggest that even in nonparametric settings it is possible to learn a near-optimal classifier using only a few labeled samples. Unlike previous theoretical work which focuses on binary classification, we consider general multiclass classification ($K>2$), which requires solving a difficult permutation learning problem. This permutation defines a classifier whose classification error is controlled by the Wasserstein distance between mixing measures, and we provide finite-sample results characterizing the behaviour of the excess risk of this classifier. Finally, we describe three algorithms for computing these estimators based on a connection to bipartite graph matching, and perform experiments to illustrate the superiority of the MLE over the majority vote estimator.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Learning Large-Scale Bayesian Networks with the sparsebn Package

Learning graphical models from data is an important problem with wide applications, ranging from genomics to the social sciences. Nowadays datasets often have upwards of thousands---sometimes tens or hundreds of thousands---of variables and far fewer samples. To meet this challenge, we have developed a new R package called sparsebn for learning the structure of large, sparse graphical models with a focus on Bayesian networks. While there are many existing software packages for this task, this package focuses on the unique setting of learning large networks from high-dimensional data, possibly with interventions. As such, the methods provided place a premium on scalability and consistency in a high-dimensional setting. Furthermore, in the presence of interventions, the methods implemented here achieve the goal of learning a causal network from data. Additionally, the sparsebn package is fully compatible with existing software packages for network analysis.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Learning Directed Acyclic Graphs with Penalized Neighbourhood Regression

We study a family of regularized score-based estimators for learning the structure of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for a multivariate normal distribution from high-dimensional data with $p\gg n$. Our main results establish support recovery guarantees and deviation bounds for a family of penalized least-squares estimators under concave regularization without assuming prior knowledge of a variable ordering. These results apply to a variety of practical situations that allow for arbitrary nondegenerate covariance structures as well as many popular regularizers including the MCP, SCAD, $\ell_{0}$ and $\ell_{1}$. The proof relies on interpreting a DAG as a recursive linear structural equation model, which reduces the estimation problem to a series of neighbourhood regressions. We provide a novel statistical analysis of these neighbourhood problems, establishing uniform control over the superexponential family of neighbourhoods associated with a Gaussian distribution. We then apply these results to study the statistical properties of score-based DAG estimators, learning causal DAGs, and inferring conditional independence relations via graphical models. Our results yield---for the first time---finite-sample guarantees for structure learning of Gaussian DAGs in high-dimensions via score-based estimation.

math.ST↗