arXiv subjects

C. A. L. Bailer-Jones

Publications and source records attributed to C. A. L. Bailer-Jones.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Gaia Early Data Release 3: Acceleration of the solar system from Gaia astrometry

Context. Gaia Early Data Release 3 (Gaia EDR3) provides accurate astrometry for about 1.6 million compact (QSO-like) extragalactic sources, 1.2 million of which have the best-quality five-parameter astrometric solutions. Aims. The proper motions of QSO-like sources are used to reveal a systematic pattern due to the acceleration of the solar system barycentre with respect to the rest frame of the Universe. Apart from being an important scientific result by itself, the acceleration measured in this way is a good quality indicator of the Gaia astrometric solution. Methods. The effect of the acceleration is obtained as a part of the general expansion of the vector field of proper motions in Vector Spherical Harmonics (VSH). Various versions of the VSH fit and various subsets of the sources are tried and compared to get the most consistent result and a realistic estimate of its uncertainty. Additional tests with the Gaia astrometric solution are used to get a better idea on possible systematic errors in the estimate. Results. Our best estimate of the acceleration based on Gaia EDR3 is $(2.32 \pm 0.16) \times 10^{-10}$ m s${}^{-2}$ (or $7.33 \pm 0.51$ km s$^{-1}$ Myr${}^{-1}$) towards $α= 269.1^\circ \pm 5.4^\circ$, $δ= -31.6^\circ \pm 4.1^\circ$, corresponding to a proper motion amplitude of $5.05 \pm 0.35$ $μ$as yr${}^{-1}$. This is in good agreement with the acceleration expected from current models of the Galactic gravitational potential. We expect that future Gaia data releases will provide estimates of the acceleration with uncertainties substantially below 0.1 $μ$as yr${}^{-1}$.

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arXiv2020

Evidence of a dynamically evolving Galactic warp

In a cosmological setting, the disc of a galaxy is expected to continuously experience gravitational torques and perturbations from a variety of sources, which can cause the disc to wobble, flare and warp. Specifically, the study of galactic warps and their dynamical nature can potentially reveal key information on the formation history of galaxies and the mass distribution of their halos. Our Milky Way presents a unique case study for galactic warps, thanks to the detailed knowledge of its stellar distribution and kinematics. Using a simple model of how the warp's orientation is changing with time, we here measure the precession rate of the Milky Way's warp using 12 million giant stars from Gaia Data Release 2, finding that it is precessing at $10.86 \pm 0.03_{stat} \pm 3.20_{sys}$ km/s/kpc in the direction of Galactic rotation, about one third the angular velocity at the Sun's position in the Galaxy. The direction and magnitude of the warp's precession rate favour the scenario that the warp is the results of a recent or ongoing encounter with a satellite galaxy, rather than the relic of the ancient assembly history of the Galaxy.

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arXiv2018

Plausible home stars of the interstellar object 'Oumuamua found in Gaia DR2

The first detected interstellar object 'Oumuamua that passed within 0.25au of the Sun on 2017 September 9 was presumably ejected from a stellar system. We use its newly determined non-Keplerian trajectory together with the reconstructed Galactic orbits of 7 million stars from Gaia DR2 to identify past close encounters. Such an "encounter" could reveal the home system from which 'Oumuamua was ejected. The closest encounter, at 0.60pc (0.53-0.67pc, 90% confidence interval), was with the M2.5 dwarf HIP 3757 at a relative velocity of 24.7km/s, 1Myr ago. A more distant encounter (1.6pc) but with a lower encounter (ejection) velocity of 10.7km/s was with the G5 dwarf HD 292249, 3.8Myr ago. Two more stars have encounter distances and velocities intermediate to these. The encounter parameters are similar across six different non-gravitational trajectories for 'Oumuamua. Ejection of 'Oumuamua by scattering from a giant planet in one of the systems is plausible, but requires a rather unlikely configuration to achieve the high velocities found. A binary star system is more likely to produce the observed velocities. None of the four home candidates have published exoplanets or are known to be binaries. Given that the 7 million stars in Gaia DR2 with 6D phase space information is just a small fraction of all stars for which we can eventually reconstruct orbits, it is a priori unlikely that our current search would find 'Oumuamua's home star system. As 'Oumuamua is expected to pass within 1pc of about 20 stars and brown dwarfs every Myr, the plausibility of a home system depends also on an appropriate (low) encounter velocity.

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arXiv2018

Gaia Data Release 2: Observational Hertzsprung-Russell diagrams

We highlight the power of the Gaia DR2 in studying many fine structures of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (HRD). Gaia allows us to present many different HRDs, depending in particular on stellar population selections. We do not aim here for completeness in terms of types of stars or stellar evolutionary aspects. Instead, we have chosen several illustrative examples. We describe some of the selections that can be made in Gaia DR2 to highlight the main structures of the Gaia HRDs. We select both field and cluster (open and globular) stars, compare the observations with previous classifications and with stellar evolutionary tracks, and we present variations of the Gaia HRD with age, metallicity, and kinematics. Late stages of stellar evolution such as hot subdwarfs, post-AGB stars, planetary nebulae, and white dwarfs are also analysed, as well as low-mass brown dwarf objects. The Gaia HRDs are unprecedented in both precision and coverage of the various Milky Way stellar populations and stellar evolutionary phases. Many fine structures of the HRDs are presented. The clear split of the white dwarf sequence into hydrogen and helium white dwarfs is presented for the first time in an HRD. The relation between kinematics and the HRD is nicely illustrated. Two different populations in a classical kinematic selection of the halo are unambiguously identified in the HRD. Membership and mean parameters for a selected list of open clusters are provided. They allow drawing very detailed cluster sequences, highlighting fine structures, and providing extremely precise empirical isochrones that will lead to more insight in stellar physics. Gaia DR2 demonstrates the potential of combining precise astrometry and photometry for large samples for studies in stellar evolution and stellar population and opens an entire new area for HRD-based studies.

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arXiv2018

The Galactic warp revealed by Gaia DR2 kinematics

Using Gaia DR2 astrometry, we map the kinematic signature of the Galactic stellar warp out to a distance of 7 kpc from the Sun. Combining Gaia DR2 and 2MASS photometry, we identify, via a probabilistic approach, 599 494 upper main sequence stars and 12 616 068 giants without the need for individual extinction estimates. The spatial distribution of the upper main sequence stars clearly shows segments of the nearest spiral arms. The large-scale kinematics of both the upper main sequence and giant populations show a clear signature of the warp of the Milky Way, apparent as a gradient of 5-6 km/s in the vertical velocities from 8 to 14 kpc in Galactic radius. The presence of the signal in both samples, which have different typical ages, suggests that the warp is a gravitationally induced phenomenon.

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arXiv2018

Estimating distances from parallaxes IV: Distances to 1.33 billion stars in Gaia Data Release 2

For the vast majority of stars in the second Gaia data release, reliable distances cannot be obtained by inverting the parallax. A correct inference procedure must instead be used to account for the nonlinearity of the transformation and the asymmetry of the resulting probability distribution. Here we infer distances to essentially all 1.33 billion stars with parallaxes published in the second \gaia\ data release. This is done using a weak distance prior that varies smoothly as a function of Galactic longitude and latitude according to a Galaxy model. The irreducible uncertainty in the distance estimate is characterized by the lower and upper bounds of an asymmetric confidence interval. Although more precise distances can be estimated for a subset of the stars using additional data (such as photometry), our goal is to provide purely geometric distance estimates, independent of assumptions about the physical properties of, or interstellar extinction towards, individual stars. We analyse the characteristics of the catalogue and validate it using clusters. The catalogue can be queried on the Gaia archive using ADQL at http://gea.esac.esa.int/archive/ and downloaded from http://www.mpia.de/~calj/gdr2_distances.html .

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arXiv2018

New stellar encounters discovered in the second Gaia data release

Passing stars may play an important role in the evolution of our solar system. We search for close stellar encounters to the Sun among all 7.2 million stars in Gaia-DR2 that have six-dimensional phase space data. We characterize encounters by integrating their orbits through a Galactic potential and propagating the correlated uncertainties via a Monte Carlo resampling. After filtering to remove spurious data, we find 694 stars that have median (over uncertainties) closest encounter distances within 5 pc, all occurring within 15 Myr from now. 26 of these have at least a 50% chance of coming closer than 1 pc (and 7 within 0.5 pc), all but one of which are newly discovered here. We further confirm some and refute several other previously-identified encounters, confirming suspicions about their data. The closest encounter in the sample is Gl 710, which has a 95% probability of coming closer than 0.08 pc (17 000 AU). Taking mass estimates from Gaia astrometry and multiband photometry for essentially all encounters, we find that Gl 710 also has the largest impulse on the Oort cloud. Using a Galaxy model, we compute the completeness of the Gaia-DR2 encountering sample as a function of perihelion time and distance. Only 15% of encounters within 5 pc occurring within +/- 5 Myr of now have been identified, mostly due to the lack of radial velocities for faint and/or cool stars. Accounting for the incompleteness, we infer the present rate of encounters within 1 pc to be 19.7 +/- 2.2 per Myr, a quantity expected to scale quadratically with the encounter distance out to at least several pc. Spuriously large parallaxes in our sample from imperfect filtering would tend to inflate both the number of encounters found and this inferred rate. The magnitude of this effect is hard to quantify.

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arXiv2018

Gaia Data Release 2: using Gaia parallaxes

The second Gaia data release (GDR2) provides precise five-parameter astrometric data (positions, proper motions and parallaxes) for an unprecedented amount of sources (more than $1.3$ billion, mostly stars). The use of this wealth of astrometric data comes with a specific challenge: how does one properly infer from these data the astrophysical parameters of interest? The main - but not only - focus of this paper is the issue of the estimation of distances from parallaxes, possibly combined with other information. We start with a critical review of the methods traditionally used to obtain distances from parallaxes and their shortcomings. Then we provide guidelines on how to use parallaxes more efficiently to estimate distances by using Bayesian methods. In particular also we show that negative parallaxes, or parallaxes with relatively larger uncertainties still contain valuable information. Finally, we provide examples that show more generally how to use astrometric data for parameter estimation, including the combination of proper motions and parallaxes and the handling of covariances in the uncertainties. The paper contains examples based on simulated Gaia data to illustrate the problems and the solutions proposed. Furthermore, the developments and methods proposed in the paper are linked to a set of tutorials included in the Gaia archive documentation that provide practical examples and a good starting point for the application of the recommendations to actual problems. In all cases the source code for the analysis methods is provided. Our main recommendation is to always treat the derivation of (astro-) physical parameters from astrometric data, in particular when parallaxes are involved, as an inference problem which should preferably be handled with a full Bayesian approach.

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arXiv2018

Gaia Data Release 2. Summary of the contents and survey properties

We present the second Gaia data release, Gaia DR2, consisting of astrometry, photometry, radial velocities, and information on astrophysical parameters and variability, for sources brighter than magnitude 21. In addition epoch astrometry and photometry are provided for a modest sample of minor planets in the solar system. A summary of the contents of Gaia DR2 is presented, accompanied by a discussion on the differences with respect to Gaia DR1 and an overview of the main limitations which are still present in the survey. Recommendations are made on the responsible use of Gaia DR2 results. Gaia DR2 contains celestial positions and the apparent brightness in G for approximately 1.7 billion sources. For 1.3 billion of those sources, parallaxes and proper motions are in addition available. The sample of sources for which variability information is provided is expanded to 0.5 million stars. This data release contains four new elements: broad-band colour information in the form of the apparent brightness in the $G_\mathrm{BP}$ (330--680 nm) and $G_\mathrm{RP}$ (630--1050 nm) bands is available for 1.4 billion sources; median radial velocities for some 7 million sources are presented; for between 77 and 161 million sources estimates are provided of the stellar effective temperature, extinction, reddening, and radius and luminosity; and for a pre-selected list of 14000 minor planets in the solar system epoch astrometry and photometry are presented. Finally, Gaia DR2 also represents a new materialisation of the celestial reference frame in the optical, the Gaia-CRF2, which is the first optical reference frame based solely on extragalactic sources. There are notable changes in the photometric system and the catalogue source list with respect to Gaia DR1, and we stress the need to consider the two data releases as independent.

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arXiv2018

Three-dimensional dust mapping in the Orion Complex, combining Gaia-TGAS, 2MASS, and WISE

We present a map of the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of dust in the Orion complex. Orion is the closest site of high-mass star formation, making it an excellent laboratory for studying the interstellar medium and star formation. We use data from the Gaia-TGAS catalogue combined with photometry from 2MASS and WISE to get the distances and extinctions of individual stars in the vicinity of the Orion complex. We adopt the non-parametric method of Rezaei Kh. et al. (2017) to infer the probability distribution function of the dust densities at arbitrary points throughout the region. We map the dust distribution towards different parts of the Orion complex and find the distance and depth of the cloud compatible with other recent works which show the ability of the method to be applicable on the local molecular clouds to map their 3D dust distribution. We also demonstrate the danger of only using colours of stars to derive their extinctions without considering further physical constraints like the colour-magnitude diagram (CMD).

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arXiv2017

The completeness-corrected rate of stellar encounters with the Sun from the first Gaia data release

I report on close encounters of stars to the Sun found in the first Gaia data release (GDR1). Combining Gaia astrometry with radial velocities of around 320 000 stars drawn from various catalogues, I integrate orbits in a Galactic potential to identify those stars which pass within a few parsecs. Such encounters could influence the solar system, for example through gravitational perturbations of the Oort cloud. 16 stars are found to come within 2 pc (although a few of these have dubious data). This is fewer than were found in a similar study based on Hipparcos data, even though the present study has many more candidates. This is partly because I reject stars with large radial velocity uncertainties (>10 km/s), and partly because of missing stars in GDR1 (especially at the bright end). The closest encounter found is Gl 710, a K dwarf long-known to come close to the Sun in about 1.3 Myr. The Gaia astrometry predict a much closer passage than pre-Gaia estimates, however: just 16 000 AU (90% confidence interval: 10 000 to 21 000 AU), which will bring this star well within the Oort cloud. Using a simple model for the spatial, velocity, and luminosity distributions of stars, together with an approximation of the observational selection function, I model the incompleteness of this Gaia-based search as a function of the time and distance of closest approach. Applying this to a subset of the observed encounters (excluding duplicates and stars with implausibly large velocities), I estimate the rate of stellar encounters within 5 pc averaged over the past and future 5 Myr to be 545 +/- 59 per Myr. Assuming a quadratic scaling of the rate within some encounter distance (which my model predicts), this corresponds to 87 +/- 9 per My within 2 pc. A more accurate analysis and assessment will be possible with future Gaia data releases.

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arXiv2017

Gaia Data Release 1. Testing the parallaxes with local Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars

Parallaxes for 331 classical Cepheids, 31 Type II Cepheids and 364 RR Lyrae stars in common between Gaia and the Hipparcos and Tycho-2 catalogues are published in Gaia Data Release 1 (DR1) as part of the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS). In order to test these first parallax measurements of the primary standard candles of the cosmological distance ladder, that involve astrometry collected by Gaia during the initial 14 months of science operation, we compared them with literature estimates and derived new period-luminosity ($PL$), period-Wesenheit ($PW$) relations for classical and Type II Cepheids and infrared $PL$, $PL$-metallicity ($PLZ$) and optical luminosity-metallicity ($M_V$-[Fe/H]) relations for the RR Lyrae stars, with zero points based on TGAS. The new relations were computed using multi-band ($V,I,J,K_{\mathrm{s}},W_{1}$) photometry and spectroscopic metal abundances available in the literature, and applying three alternative approaches: (i) by linear least squares fitting the absolute magnitudes inferred from direct transformation of the TGAS parallaxes, (ii) by adopting astrometric-based luminosities, and (iii) using a Bayesian fitting approach. TGAS parallaxes bring a significant added value to the previous Hipparcos estimates. The relations presented in this paper represent first Gaia-calibrated relations and form a "work-in-progress" milestone report in the wait for Gaia-only parallaxes of which a first solution will become available with Gaia's Data Release 2 (DR2) in 2018.

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arXiv2017

Gaia Data Release 1. Open cluster astrometry: performance, limitations, and future prospects

Context. The first Gaia Data Release contains the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS). This is a subset of about 2 million stars for which, besides the position and photometry, the proper motion and parallax are calculated using Hipparcos and Tycho-2 positions in 1991.25 as prior information. Aims. We investigate the scientific potential and limitations of the TGAS component by means of the astrometric data for open clusters. Methods. Mean cluster parallax and proper motion values are derived taking into account the error correlations within the astrometric solutions for individual stars, an estimate of the internal velocity dispersion in the cluster, and, where relevant, the effects of the depth of the cluster along the line of sight. Internal consistency of the TGAS data is assessed. Results. Values given for standard uncertainties are still inaccurate and may lead to unrealistic unit-weight standard deviations of least squares solutions for cluster parameters. Reconstructed mean cluster parallax and proper motion values are generally in very good agreement with earlier Hipparcos-based determination, although the Gaia mean parallax for the Pleiades is a significant exception. We have no current explanation for that discrepancy. Most clusters are observed to extend to nearly 15 pc from the cluster centre, and it will be up to future Gaia releases to establish whether those potential cluster-member stars are still dynamically bound to the clusters. Conclusions. The Gaia DR1 provides the means to examine open clusters far beyond their more easily visible cores, and can provide membership assessments based on proper motions and parallaxes. A combined HR diagram shows the same features as observed before using the Hipparcos data, with clearly increased luminosities for older A and F dwarfs.

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arXiv2016

Inferring the three-dimensional distribution of dust in the Galaxy with a non-parametric method: Preparing for Gaia

We present a non-parametric model for inferring the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of dust density in the Milky Way. Our approach uses the extinction measured towards stars at different locations in the Galaxy at approximately known distances. Each extinction measurement is proportional to the integrated dust density along its line-of-sight. Making simple assumptions about the spatial correlation of the dust density, we can infer the most probable 3D distribution of dust across the entire observed region, including along sight lines which were not observed. This is possible because our model employs a Gaussian Process to connect all lines-of-sight. We demonstrate the capability of our model to capture detailed dust density variations using mock data as well as simulated data from the Gaia Universe Model Snapshot. We then apply our method to a sample of giant stars observed by APOGEE and Kepler to construct a 3D dust map over a small region of the Galaxy. Due to our smoothness constraint and its isotropy, we provide one of the first maps which does not show the "fingers of god" effect.

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arXiv2016

Dust in three dimensions in the Galactic Plane

We present three dimensional maps in monochromatic extinction $A_{\rm 0}$ and the extinction parameter $R_0$ within a few degrees of the Galactic plane. These are inferred using photometry from the Pan-STARRS1 and Spitzer Glimpse surveys of nearly $20$ million stars located in the region $l = 0-250^{\circ}$ and from $b = -4.5^{\circ}$ to $b=4.5^{\circ}$. Given the available stellar number density, we use an angular resolution of $7' \times 7'$ and steps of $1{\rm mag}$ in distance modulus. We simultaneously estimate distance modulus and effective temperature $T_{\rm eff}$ alongside the other parameters for stars individually using the method of \citet{Hanson2014} before combining these estimates to a complete map. The full maps are available via the MNRAS website.

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arXiv2015

Finding the imprints of stellar encounters in long period comets

The solar system's Oort cloud can be perturbed by the Galactic tide and by individual passing stars. These perturbations can inject Oort cloud objects into the inner parts of the solar system, where they may be observed as the long-period comets (periods longer than 200 years). Using dynamical simulations of the Oort cloud under the perturbing effects of the tide and 61 known stellar encounters, we investigate the link between long-period comets and encounters. We find that past encounters were responsible for injecting at least 5% of the currently known long-period comets. This is a lower limit due to the incompleteness of known encounters. Although the Galactic tide seems to play the dominant role in producing the observed long-period comets, the non-uniform longitude distribution of the cometary perihelia suggests the existence of strong -- but as yet unidentified -- stellar encounters or other impulses. The strongest individual future and past encounters are probably HIP 89825 (Gliese 710) and HIP 14473, which contribute at most 8% and 6% to the total flux of long-period comets, respectively. Our results show that the strength of an encounter can be approximated well by a simple proxy, which will be convenient for quickly identifying significant encounters in large data sets. Our analysis also indicates a smaller population of the Oort cloud than is usually assumed, which would bring the mass of the solar nebula into line with planet formation theories.

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arXiv2015

Estimating distances from parallaxes

Astrometric surveys such as Gaia and LSST will measure parallaxes for hundreds of millions of stars. Yet they will not measure a single distance. Rather, a distance must be estimated from a parallax. In this didactic article, I show that doing this is not trivial once the fractional parallax error is larger than about 20%, which will be the case for about 80% of stars in the Gaia catalogue. Estimating distances is an inference problem in which the use of prior assumptions is unavoidable. I investigate the properties and performance of various priors and examine their implications. A supposed uninformative uniform prior in distance is shown to give very poor distance estimates (large bias and variance). Any prior with a sharp cut-off at some distance has similar problems. The choice of prior depends on the information one has available - and is willing to use - concerning, for example, the survey and the Galaxy. I demonstrate that a simple prior which decreases asymptotically to zero at infinite distance has good performance, accommodates non-positive parallaxes, and does not require a bias correction.

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arXiv2015

Obliquity and precession as pacemakers of Pleistocene deglaciations

The Milankovitch theory states that the orbital eccentricity, precession, and obliquity of the Earth influence our climate by modulating the summer insolation at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. Despite considerable success of this theory in explaining climate change over the Pleistocene epoch (2.6 to 0.01 Myr ago), it is inconclusive with regard to which combination of orbital elements paced the 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles over the late Pleistocene. Here we explore the role of the orbital elements in pacing the Pleistocene deglaciations by modeling ice-volume variations in a Bayesian approach. When comparing models, this approach takes into account the uncertainties in the data as well as the different degrees of model complexity. We find that the Earth's obliquity (axial tilt) plays a dominant role in pacing the glacial cycles over the whole Pleistocene, while precession only becomes important in pacing major deglaciations after the transition of the dominant period from 41 kyr to 100 kyr (the mid-Pleistocene transition). We also find that geomagnetic field and orbital inclination variations are unlikely to have paced the Pleistocene deglaciations. We estimate that the mid-Pleistocene transition took place over a 220 kyr interval centered on a time 715 kyr ago, although the data permit a range of 600--1000 kyr. This transition, occurring within just two 100\,kyr cycles, indicates a relatively rapid change in the climate response to insolation.

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