arXiv subjects

C. A. L. Bailer-Jones

Publications and source records attributed to C. A. L. Bailer-Jones.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Close encounters of the stellar kind

Stars which pass close to the Sun can perturb the Oort cloud, injecting comets into the inner solar system where they may collide with the Earth. Using van Leeuwen's re-reduction of the Hipparcos data complemented by the original Hipparcos and Tycho-2 catalogues, along with recent radial velocity surveys, I integrate the orbits of over 50 000 stars through the Galaxy to look for close encounters. The search uses a Monte Carlo simulation over the covariance of the data in order to properly characterize the uncertainties in the times, distances, and speeds of the encounters. I show that modelling stellar encounters by assuming instead a linear relative motion produces, for many encounters, inaccurate and biased results. I find 42, 14, and 4 stars which have encounter distances below 2, 1, and 0.5 pc respectively, although some of these stars have questionable data. Of the 14 stars coming within 1 pc, 5 were found by at least one of three previous studies (which found a total of 7 coming within 1 pc). The closest encounter appears to be Hip 85605, a K or M star, which has a 90% probability of coming between 0.04 and 0.20 pc between 240 and 470 kyr from now (90% Bayesian confidence interval). However, its astrometry may be incorrect, in which case the closest encounter found is the K7 dwarf GL 710, which has a 90% probability of coming within 0.10-0.44 pc in about 1.3 Myr. A larger perturbation may have been caused by gamma Microscopii, a G6 giant with a mass of about 2.5 Msol, which came within 0.35-1.34 pc (90% confidence interval) around 3.8 Myr ago.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Search for free-floating planetary-mass objects in the Pleiades

(Abridged) We aim at identifying the least massive population of the solar metallicity, young (120 Myr), nearby (133.5 pc) Pleiades star cluster with the ultimate goal of understanding the physical properties of intermediate-age, free-floating, low-mass brown dwarfs and giant planetary-mass objects, and deriving the cluster substellar mass function across the deuterium-burning mass limit at ~0.012 Msol. We performed a deep photometric and astrometric J- and H-band survey covering an area of ~0.8 deg^2. The images with completeness and limiting magnitudes of J,H ~ 20.2 and ~ 21.5 mag were acquired ~9 yr apart (proper motion precision of +/-6 mas/yr). J- and H-band data were complemented with Z, K, and mid-infrared magnitudes up to 4.6 micron coming from UKIDSS, WISE, and follow-up observations of our own. Pleiades member candidates were selected to have proper motions compatible with that of the cluster, and colors following the known Pleiades sequence in the interval J = 15.5-8.8 mag, and Z_UKIDSS - J > 2.3 mag or Z nondetections for J > 18.8 mag. We found a neat sequence of astrometric and photometric Pleiades substellar member candidates in the intervals J = 15.5-21.2 mag and ~0.072-0.008 Msol. The faintest objects show very red near- and mid-infrared colors exceeding those of field high-gravity dwarfs by >0.5 mag. The Pleiades photometric sequence does not show any color turn-over because of the presence of photospheric methane absorption down to J = 20.3 mag, which is about 1 mag fainter than predicted by the color-computed models. Pleiades brown dwarfs have a proper motion dispersion of 6.4-7.5 mas/yr and are dynamically relaxed at the age of the cluster. The Pleiades mass function extends down to the deuterium burning-mass threshold, with a slope fairly similar to that of other young star clusters and stellar associations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Exploring the role of the Sun's motion in terrestrial comet impacts

The cratering record on the Earth and Moon shows that our planet has been exposed to high velocity impacts for much or all of its existence. Some of these craters were produced by the impact of long period comets (LPCs). These probably originated in the Oort cloud, and were put into their present orbits through gravitational perturbations arising from the Galactic tide and stellar encounters, both of which are modulated by the solar motion about the Galaxy. Here we construct dynamicalmodels of these mechanisms in order to predict the time-varying impact rate of LPCs and the angular distribution of their perihelia (which is observed to be non-uniform). Comparing the predictions of these dynamical models with other models, we conclude that cometary impacts induced by the solar motion contribute only a small fraction of terrestrial impact craters over the past 250 Myr. Over this time scale the apparent cratering rate is dominated by a secular increase towards the present, which might be the result of the disruption of a large asteroid. Our dynamical models, together with the solar apex motion, predict a non-uniform angular distribution of the perihelia, without needing to invoke the existence of a massive body in the outer Oort cloud. Our results are reasonably robust to changes in the parameters of the Galaxy model, Oort cloud, and stellar encounters.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

3D Galactic dust extinction mapping with multi-band photometry

We present a method to simultaneously infer the interstellar extinction parameters $A_0$ and $R_0$, stellar effective temperature $T_{\rm eff}$, and distance modulus $μ$ in a Bayesian framework. Using multi-band photometry from SDSS and UKIDSS, we train a forward model to emulate the colour-change due to physical properties of stars and the interstellar medium for temperatures from 4000 to 9000 K and extinctions from 0 to 5 mag. We introduce a Hertzsprung-Russel diagram prior to account for physical constraints on the distribution of stars in the temperature-absolute magnitude plane. This allows us to infer distances probabilistically. Influences of colour information, priors and model parameters are explored. Residual mean absolute errors (MAEs) on a set of objects for extinction and temperature are 0.2 mag and 300 K, respectively, for $R_0$ fixed to 3.1. For variable $R_0$, we obtain MAEs of 0.37 mag, 412.9 K and 0.74 for $A_0$, $T_{\rm eff}$ and $R_0$, respectively. Distance moduli are accurate to approximately 2 mag. Quantifying the precisions of individual parameter estimates with $68\%$ confidence interval of the posterior distribution, we obtain 0.05 mag, 66 K, 2 mag and 0.07 for $A_0$, $T_{\rm eff}$, $μ$ and $R_0$, respectively, although we find that these underestimate the accuracy of the model. We produce two-dimensional maps in extinction and $R_0$ that are compared to previous work. Furthermore we incorporate the inferred distance information to compute fully probabilistic distance profiles for individual lines of sight. The individual stellar AP estimates, combined with inferred 3D information will make possible many Galactic science and modelling applications. Adapting our method to work with other surveys, such as Pan-STARRS and Gaia, will allow us to probe other regions of the Galaxy.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2013

The Gaia astrophysical parameters inference system (Apsis). Pre-launch description

The Gaia satellite will survey the entire celestial sphere down to 20th magnitude, obtaining astrometry, photometry, and low resolution spectrophotometry on one billion astronomical sources, plus radial velocities for over one hundred million stars. Its main objective is to take a census of the stellar content of our Galaxy, with the goal of revealing its formation and evolution. Gaia's unique feature is the measurement of parallaxes and proper motions with hitherto unparalleled accuracy for many objects. As a survey, the physical properties of most of these objects are unknown. Here we describe the data analysis system put together by the Gaia consortium to classify these objects and to infer their astrophysical properties using the satellite's data. This system covers single stars, (unresolved) binary stars, quasars, and galaxies, all covering a wide parameter space. Multiple methods are used for many types of stars, producing multiple results for the end user according to different models and assumptions. Prior to its application to real Gaia data the accuracy of these methods cannot be assessed definitively. But as an example of the current performance, we can attain internal accuracies (RMS residuals) on F,G,K,M dwarfs and giants at G=15 (V=15-17) for a wide range of metallicites and interstellar extinctions of around 100K in effective temperature (Teff), 0.1mag in extinction (A0), 0.2dex in metallicity ([Fe/H]), and 0.25dex in surface gravity (logg). The accuracy is a strong function of the parameters themselves, varying by a factor of more than two up or down over this parameter range. After its launch in November 2013, Gaia will nominally observe for five years, during which the system we describe will continue to evolve in light of experience with the real data.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2013

What will Gaia tell us about the Galactic disk?

Gaia will provide parallaxes and proper motions with accuracy ranging from 10 to 1000 microarcsecond on up to one billion stars. Most of these will be disk stars: for an unreddened K giant at 6 kpc, it will measure the distance accurate to 15% and the transverse velocity to an accuracy of about 1 km/s. Gaia will observe tracers of Galactic structure across the whole HR diagram, including Cepheids, RR Lyrae, white dwarfs, F dwarfs and HB stars. Onboard low resolution spectrophotometry will permit -- in addition to a Teff estimate -- dwarf/giant discrimination, metallicity measurement and extinction determination. For the first time, then, Gaia will provide us with a 3D spatial/properties map and at least a 2D velocity map of these tracers (RVs will be obtained too for brighter stars.) This will be a goldmine of information from which to learn about the origin and evolution of the Galactic disk. I briefly review the Gaia mission, and then show how the expected astrometric accuracies translate into distance and velocity accuracies and statistics. I examine the impact Gaia should have on a few scientific areas relevant to the Galactic disk. I discuss how a better determination of the spiral arm locations and pattern speed, plus a better reconstruction of the Sun's orbit over the past billion years (from integration through the Gaia-measured gravitational potential) will allow us to assess the possible role of spiral arm crossings in ice ages and mass extinctions on the Earth.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2013

Evidence for periodicities in the extinction record? Response to Melott & Bambach [arXiv:1307.1884]

In a recent paper, we applied time series analysis methods to study the possible influence of the solar motion through the Galaxy on terrestrial extinction (Feng & Bailer-Jones 2013). We drew conclusions about the relative probabilities of how well different models explain the geological extinction record. We found no strong evidence for either a periodicity in the extinction record or for a link between the solar orbit and this extinction record. In response to this, Melott & Bambach (2013) dedicate the majority of their article to criticizing our analysis. Their main objection is to evidence-based model comparison. Here we deal with their criticisms one by one, and show that they are largely misplaced, leaving our conclusions unaffected. The bottom line is that although one can get a periodic model at some period to fit the extinction data, there are other models which explain the data better.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Assessing the influence of the solar orbit on terrestrial biodiversity

The terrestrial fossil record shows a significant variation in the extinction and origination rates of species during the past half billion years. Numerous studies have claimed an association between this variation and the motion of the Sun around the Galaxy, invoking the modulation of cosmic rays, gamma rays and comet impact frequency as a cause of this biodiversity variation. However, some of these studies exhibit methodological problems, or were based on coarse assumptions (such as a strict periodicity of the solar orbit). Here we investigate this link in more detail, using a model of the Galaxy to reconstruct the solar orbit and thus a predictive model of the temporal variation of the extinction rate due to astronomical mechanisms. We compare these predictions as well as those of various reference models with paleontological data. Our approach involves Bayesian model comparison, which takes into account the uncertainties in the paleontological data as well as the distribution of solar orbits consistent with the uncertainties in the astronomical data. We find that various versions of the orbital model are not favored beyond simpler reference models. In particular, the distribution of mass extinction events can be explained just as well by a uniform random distribution as by any other model tested. Although our negative results on the orbital model are robust to changes in the Galaxy model, the Sun's coordinates and the errors in the data, we also find that it would be very difficult to positively identify the orbital model even if it were the true one. (In contrast, we do find evidence against simpler periodic models.) Thus while we cannot rule out there being some connection between solar motion and biodiversity variations on the Earth, we conclude that it is difficult to give convincing positive conclusions of such a connection using current data.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2013

A history of the gamma-ray burst flux at the Earth from Galactic globular clusters

Nearby gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have represented a significant threat to life on the Earth. Recent observations suggest that a significant source of such bursts is compact binary mergers in globular clusters. This link between globular clusters and GRBs offers the possibility to find time intervals in the past with higher probabilities of a nearby burst, by tracing globular cluster orbits back in time. Here we show that the expected flux from such bursts is not flat over the past 550 Myr but rather exhibits three broad peaks, at 70, 180 and 340 Myr ago. The main source for nearby GRBs for all three time intervals is the globular cluster 47 Tuc, a consequence of its large mass and high stellar encounter rate, as well as the fact that it is one of the globular clusters which comes quite close to the Sun. Mass extinction events indeed coincide with all three time intervals found in this study, although a chance coincidence is quite likely. Nevertheless, the identified time intervals can be used as a guide to search for specific signatures of GRBs in the geological record around these times.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2012

A Bayesian method for the analysis of deterministic and stochastic time series

I introduce a general, Bayesian method for modelling univariate time series data assumed to be drawn from a continuous, stochastic process. The method accommodates arbitrary temporal sampling, and takes into account measurement uncertainties for arbitrary error models (not just Gaussian) on both the time and signal variables. Any model for the deterministic component of the variation of the signal with time is supported, as is any model of the stochastic component on the signal and time variables. Models illustrated here are constant and sinusoidal models for the signal mean combined with a Gaussian stochastic component, as well as a purely stochastic model, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The posterior probability distribution over model parameters is determined via Monte Carlo sampling. Models are compared using the "cross-validation likelihood", in which the posterior-averaged likelihood for different partitions of the data are combined. In principle this is more robust to changes in the prior than is the evidence (the prior-averaged likelihood). The method is demonstrated by applying it to the light curves of 11 ultra cool dwarf stars, claimed by a previous study to show statistically significant variability. This is reassessed here by calculating the cross-validation likelihood for various time series models, including a null hypothesis of no variability beyond the error bars. 10 of 11 light curves are confirmed as being significantly variable, and one of these seems to be periodic, with two plausible periods identified. Another object is best described by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a conclusion which is obviously limited to the set of models actually tested.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2012

The expected performance of stellar parametrization with Gaia spectrophotometry

Gaia will obtain astrometry and spectrophotometry for essentially all sources in the sky down to a broad band magnitude limit of G=20, an expected yield of 10^9 stars. Its main scientific objective is to reveal the formation and evolution of our Galaxy through chemo-dynamical analysis. In addition to inferring positions, parallaxes and proper motions from the astrometry, we must also infer the astrophysical parameters of the stars from the spectrophotometry, the BP/RP spectrum. Here we investigate the performance of three different algorithms (SVM, ILIUM, Aeneas) for estimating the effective temperature, line-of-sight interstellar extinction, metallicity and surface gravity of A-M stars over a wide range of these parameters and over the full magnitude range Gaia will observe (G=6-20mag). One of the algorithms, Aeneas, infers the posterior probability density function over all parameters, and can optionally take into account the parallax and the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram to improve the estimates. For all algorithms the accuracy of estimation depends on G and on the value of the parameters themselves, so a broad summary of performance is only approximate. For stars at G=15 with less than two magnitudes extinction, we expect to be able to estimate Teff to within 1%, logg to 0.1-0.2dex, and [Fe/H] (for FGKM stars) to 0.1-0.2dex, just using the BP/RP spectrum (mean absolute error statistics are quoted). Performance degrades at larger extinctions, but not always by a large amount. Extinction can be estimated to an accuracy of 0.05-0.2mag for stars across the full parameter range with a priori unknown extinction between 0 and 10mag. Performance degrades at fainter magnitudes, but even at G=19 we can estimate logg to better than 0.2dex for all spectral types, and [Fe/H] to within 0.35dex for FGKM stars, for extinctions below 1mag.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2011

The Photometric Classification Server for Pan-STARRS1

The Pan-STARRS1 survey is obtaining multi-epoch imaging in 5 bands (gps rps ips zps yps) over the entire sky North of declination -30deg. We describe here the implementation of the Photometric Classification Server (PCS) for Pan-STARRS1. PCS will allow the automatic classification of objects into star/galaxy/quasar classes based on colors, the measurement of photometric redshifts for extragalactic objects, and constrain stellar parameters for stellar objects, working at the catalog level. We present tests of the system based on high signal-to-noise photometry derived from the Medium Deep Fields of Pan-STARRS1, using available spectroscopic surveys as training and/or verification sets. We show that the Pan-STARRS1 photometry delivers classifications and photometric redshifts as good as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometry to the same magnitude limits. In particular, our preliminary results, based on this relatively limited dataset down to the SDSS spectroscopic limits and therefore potentially improvable, show that stars are correctly classified as such in 85% of cases, galaxies in 97% and QSOs in 84%. False positives are less than 1% for galaxies, ~19% for stars and ~28% QSOs. Moreover, photometric redshifts for 1000 luminous red galaxies up to redshift 0.5 are determined to 2.4% precision with just 0.4% catastrophic outliers and small (-0.5%) residual bias. PCS will create a value added catalog with classifications and photometric redshifts for eventually many millions sources.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2011

A semi-empirical library of galaxy spectra for Gaia classification based on SDSS data and PEGASE models

Aims:This paper is the third in a series implementing a classification system for Gaia observations of unresolved galaxies. The system makes use of template galaxy spectra in order to determine spectral classes and estimate intrinsic astrophysical parameters. In previous work we used synthetic galaxy spectra produced by PEGASE.2 code to simulate Gaia observations and to test the performance of Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers and parametrizers. Here we produce a semi-empirical library of galaxy spectra by fitting SDSS spectra with the previously produced synthetic libraries. We present (1) the semi-empirical library of galaxy spectra, (2) a comparison between the observed and synthetic spectra, and (3) first results of claassification and parametrization experiments with simulated Gaia spectrophotometry of this library. Methods: We use chi2-fitting to fit SDSS galaxy spectra with the synthetic library in order to construct a semi-empirical library of galaxy spectra in which (1) the real spectra are extended by the synthetic ones in order to cover the full wavelength range of Gaia, and (2) astrophysical parameters are assigned to the SDSS spectra by the best fitting synthetic spectrum. The SVM models were trained with and applied to semi-empirical spectra. Tests were performed for the classification of spectral types and the estimation of the most significant galaxy parameters (in particular redshift, mass to light ratio and star formation history). Results: We produce a semi-empirical library of 33670 galaxy spectra covering the wavelength range 250 to 1050 nm at a sampling of 1 nm or less. Using the results of the fitting of the SDSS spectra with our synthetic library, we investigate the range of the input model parameters that produces spectra which are in good agreement with observations. (abridged)

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2011

Bayesian time series analysis of terrestrial impact cratering

Giant impacts by comets and asteroids have probably had an important influence on terrestrial biological evolution. We know of around 180 high velocity impact craters on the Earth with ages up to 2400Myr and diameters up to 300km. Some studies have identified a periodicity in their age distribution, with periods ranging from 13 to 50Myr. It has further been claimed that such periods may be causally linked to a periodic motion of the solar system through the Galactic plane. However, many of these studies suffer from methodological problems, for example misinterpretation of p-values, overestimation of significance in the periodogram or a failure to consider plausible alternative models. Here I develop a Bayesian method for this problem in which impacts are treated as a stochastic phenomenon. Models for the time variation of the impact probability are defined and the evidence for them in the geological record is compared using Bayes factors. This probabilistic approach obviates the need for ad hoc statistics, and also makes explicit use of the age uncertainties. I find strong evidence for a monotonic decrease in the recorded impact rate going back in time over the past 250Myr for craters larger than 5km. The same is found for the past 150Myr when craters with upper age limits are included. This is consistent with a crater preservation/discovery bias modulating an otherwise constant impact rate. The set of craters larger than 35km (so less affected by erosion and infilling) and younger than 400Myr are best explained by a constant impact probability model. A periodic variation in the cratering rate is strongly disfavoured in all data sets. There is also no evidence for a periodicity superimposed on a constant rate or trend, although this more complex signal would be harder to distinguish.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2011

The substellar population of Sigma Orionis: A deep wide survey

We present a deep I,Z photometric survey covering a total area of 1.12 deg^{2} of the Sigma Orionis cluster (Icompl=22 and Zcompl=21.5mag). From I, I-Z color-magnitude diagrams we have selected 153 candidates that fit the previously known sequence of the cluster. Using J-band photometry, we find that 124 of the 151 candidates follow the previously known infrared photometric sequence of the cluster and are probably members. We have studied the spatial distribution of these candidates and found that there are objects located at distances greater than 30 arcmin to the north and west of Sigma Orionis that probably belong to different populations of the Orion's Belt. For the 102 bona fide Sigma Orionis cluster member candidates, we find that the radial surface density can be represented by a decreasing exponential function (sigma = sigma_0 e^{-r/r_0}) with a central density of sigma_0=0.23+/-0.03 object/arcmin^{2} and a characteristic radius of r_0=9.5+/-0.7 arcmin. From a statistical comparison with Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that the spatial distribution of the cluster member candidates is compatible with a Poissonian distribution and, hence, they are not mainly forming aggregations or sub-clustering. Using near-infrared JHK-band data from 2MASS and UKIDSS and mid-infrared data from IRAC/Spitzer, we find that 5-9 % of the brown dwarf candidates in the Sigma Orionis cluster have K-band excesses and 31+/-7 % of them show mid-infrared excesses at wavelengths longer than 5.8 microns, which are probably related to the presence of disks. We have also calculated the initial mass spectrum (dN/dm) of Sigma Orionis from very low mass stars (0.10 Msol) to the deuterium-burning mass limit (0.012-0.013 Msol). This is a rising function toward lower masses and can be represented by a power-law distribution (dN/dm = m^{-alpha}) with an exponent alpha of 0.7+/-0.3 for an age of 3 Myr.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

Bayesian inference of stellar parameters and interstellar extinction using parallaxes and multiband photometry

Astrometric surveys provide the opportunity to measure the absolute magnitudes of large numbers of stars, but only if the individual line-of-sight extinctions are known. Unfortunately, extinction is highly degenerate with stellar effective temperature when estimated from broad band optical/infrared photometry. To address this problem, I introduce a Bayesian method for estimating the intrinsic parameters of a star and its line-of-sight extinction. It uses both photometry and parallaxes in a self-consistent manner in order to provide a non-parametric posterior probability distribution over the parameters. The method makes explicit use of domain knowledge by employing the Hertzsprung--Russell Diagram (HRD) to constrain solutions and to ensure that they respect stellar physics. I first demonstrate this method by using it to estimate effective temperature and extinction from BVJHK data for a set of artificially reddened Hipparcos stars, for which accurate effective temperatures have been estimated from high resolution spectroscopy. Using just the four colours, we see the expected strong degeneracy (positive correlation) between the temperature and extinction. Introducing the parallax, apparent magnitude and the HRD reduces this degeneracy and improves both the precision (reduces the error bars) and the accuracy of the parameter estimates, the latter by about 35%. The resulting accuracy is about 200K in temperature and 0.2mag in extinction. I then apply the method to estimate these parameters and absolute magnitudes for some 47000 F,G,K Hipparcos stars which have been cross-matched with 2MASS. The method can easily be extended to incorporate the estimation of other parameters, in particular metallicity and surface gravity, making it particularly suitable for the analysis of the 10^9 stars from Gaia.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2010

The substellar mass function in the central region of the open cluster Praesepe from deep LBT observations

Studies of the mass function (MF) of open clusters of different ages allow us to probe the efficiency with which brown dwarfs (BDs) are evaporated from clusters to populate the field. Surveys in old clusters (age > 100 Myr) do not suffer so severely from several problems encountered in young clusters, such as intra-cluster extinction and large uncertainties in BD models. Here we present the results of a deep photometric survey to study the MF of the old open cluster Praesepe (age 590 Myr and distance 190 pc), down to a 5 sigma detection limit at i~25.6 mag (~40M_Jup). We identify 62 cluster member candidates, of which 40 are substellar, from comparison with predictions from a dusty atmosphere model. The MF rises from the substellar boundary until ~60M_Jup and then declines. This is quite different from the form inferred for other open clusters older than 50 Myr, but seems to be similar to those found in very young open cluster, whose MFs peak at ~10M_Jup. Either Praesepe really does have a different MF from other clusters or they had similar initial MFs but have differed in their dynamical evolution. We further have identified six foreground T dwarf candidates towards Praesepe, which require follow-up spectroscopy to confirm their nature.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2010

The ILIUM forward modelling algorithm for multivariate parameter estimation and its application to derive stellar parameters from Gaia spectrophotometry

I introduce an algorithm for estimating parameters from multidimensional data based on forward modelling. In contrast to many machine learning approaches it avoids fitting an inverse model and the problems associated with this. The algorithm makes explicit use of the sensitivities of the data to the parameters, with the goal of better treating parameters which only have a weak impact on the data. The forward modelling approach provides uncertainty (full covariance) estimates in the predicted parameters as well as a goodness-of-fit for observations. I demonstrate the algorithm, ILIUM, with the estimation of stellar astrophysical parameters (APs) from simulations of the low resolution spectrophotometry to be obtained by Gaia. The AP accuracy is competitive with that obtained by a support vector machine. For example, for zero extinction stars covering a wide range of metallicity, surface gravity and temperature, ILIUM can estimate Teff to an accuracy of 0.3% at G=15 and to 4% for (lower signal-to-noise ratio) spectra at G=20. [Fe/H] and logg can be estimated to accuracies of 0.1-0.4dex for stars with G<=18.5. If extinction varies a priori over a wide range (Av=0-10mag), then Teff and Av can be estimated quite accurately (3-4% and 0.1-0.2mag respectively at G=15), but there is a strong and ubiquitous degeneracy in these parameters which limits our ability to estimate either accurately at faint magnitudes. Using the forward model we can map these degeneracies (in advance), and thus provide a complete probability distribution over solutions. (Abridged)

astro-ph.IM↗