arXiv subjects

C. J. Henney

Publications and source records attributed to C. J. Henney.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

NASA/NOAA MOU Annex Final Report: Evaluating Model Advancements for Predicting CME Arrival Time

The purpose of this project was to assess improvements in CME arrival time forecasts at Earth using the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model driven by data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) ground observatories. These outputs are then fed into the coupled Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) - ENLIL model and compared to an operational version of WSA-ENLIL (without ADAPT). SWPC selected a set of 38 historical events over the period of five years from 2012--2014 (33 events) and 2017--2019 (5 events). The overall three-year project consisted of multiple simulation validation studies for the entire event set (1292 simulations): (a) benchmark single map (operational version prior to May 2019) (b) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving WSA-ENLIL with 4 different model settings (c) single test simulation of a time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (d) single GONG map driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (e) time-dependent sequence of GONG maps driving ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL. We report that for all 38 events, within each model version/settings combination, the CME arrival time error decreased by 0.2 to 0.9 hours when using a sequence of time-dependent zero-point corrected magnetograms compared to using single magnetogram input. Overall, for all events, when using the older uncorrected magnetograms, the CME arrival time error increased for all new model versions/settings combination compared to the benchmark. Notably for the 5 events in the period 2017--2019 when more reliable zero-point corrected magnetograms were available, the ADAPT-WSA-ENLIL (median arrival realization) CME arrival time error decreased against all benchmarks. In this report we also discuss replicating the operational model, challenges in detecting CME arrival in simulations, and comparing zero-point corrected and uncorrected magnetogram inputs.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Ground-based Synoptic Studies of the Sun

Ground-based synoptic solar observations provide critical contextual data used to model the large-scale state of the heliosphere. The next decade will see a combination of ground-based telescopes and space missions that will study our Sun's atmosphere microscopic processes with unprecedented detail. This white paper describes contextual observations from a ground-based network needed to fully exploit this new knowledge of the underlying physics that leads to the magnetic linkages between the heliosphere and the Sun. This combination of a better understanding of small-scale processes and the appropriate global context will enable a physics-based approach to Space Weather comparable to Terrestrial Weather forecasting.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Seismic Monitoring of the Sun's Far Hemisphere: A Crucial Component in Future Space Weather Forecasting (A White Paper Submitted to the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) -- SSPH 2024-2033)

The purpose of this white paper is to put together a coherent vision for the role of helioseismic monitoring of magnetic activity in the Sun's far hemisphere that will contribute to improving space weather forecasting as well as fundamental research in the coming decade. Our goal fits into the broader context of helioseismology in solar research for any number of endeavors when helioseismic monitors may be the sole synoptic view of the Sun's far hemisphere. It is intended to foster a growing understanding of solar activity, as realistically monitored in both hemispheres, and its relationship to all known aspects of the near-Earth and terrestrial environment. Some of the questions and goals that can be fruitfully pursued through seismic monitoring of farside solar activity in the coming decade include: What is the relationship between helioseismic signatures and their associated magnetic configurations, and how is this relationship connected to the solar EUV irradiance over the period of a solar rotation?; How can helioseismic monitoring contribute to data-driven global magnetic-field models for precise space weather forecasting?; What can helioseismic monitors tell us about prospects of a flare, CME or high-speed stream that impacts the terrestrial environment over the period of a solar rotation?; How does the inclusion of farside information contribute to forecasts of interplanetary space weather and the environments to be encountered by human crews in interplanetary space? Thus, it is crucial for the development of farside monitoring of the Sun be continued into the next decade either through ground-based or space-borne observations.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Using gradient boosting regression to improve ambient solar wind model predictions

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth's magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are used to output the solar wind conditions near the Earth. The results are compared to observations and existing models in a comprehensive validation analysis, and the new model outperforms existing models in almost all measures. In addition, this approach offers a new perspective to discuss the role of different input data to ambient solar wind modeling, and what this tells us about the underlying physical processes. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well-validated and open-source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Predicting the Solar Wind at Parker Solar Probe Using an Empirically Driven MHD Model

Since the launch on 2018/08/12, Parker Solar Probe (PSP) has completed its first and second orbits around the Sun, having reached down to 35.7 solar radii at each perihelion. In anticipation of the exciting new data at such unprecedented distances, we have simulated the global 3D heliosphere using an MHD model coupled with a semi-empirical coronal model using the best available photospheric magnetograms as input. We compare our heliospheric MHD simulation results with in situ measurements along the PSP trajectory from its launch to the completion of the second orbit, with particular emphasis on the solar wind structure around the first two solar encounters. Furthermore, we show our model prediction for the third perihelion, which occurred on 2019/09/01. Comparison of the MHD results with PSP observations provides a new insight on the solar wind acceleration. Moreover, PSP observations reveal how accurately the ADAPT-WSA predictions work throughout the inner heliosphere.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

The Slowly Varying Corona. II. The Components of F $_{10.7}$ and Their Use in EUV Proxies

Using four years of full-disk-integrated coronal differential emission measures calculated in Schonfeld et al. (2017), we investigate the relative contribution of bremsstrahlung and gyroresonance emission in observations of F$_{10.7}$, the 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) solar microwave spectral flux density and commonly used activity proxy. We determine that the majority of coronal F$_{10.7}$ is produced by the bremsstrahlung mechanism, but the variability observed over individual solar rotations is often driven by gyroresonance sources rotating across the disk. Our analysis suggests that the chromosphere may contribute significantly to F$_{10.7}$ variability and that coronal bremsstrahlung emission accounts for 14.2 $\pm$ 2.1 sfu ($\sim20\%$) of the observed solar minimum level. The bremsstrahlung emission has a power-law relationship to the total F$_{10.7}$ at high activity levels, and this combined with the observed linearity during low activity yields a continuously differentiable piecewise fit for the bremsstrahlung component as a function of F$_{10.7}$. We find that the bremsstrahlung component fit, along with the Mg II index, correlates better with the observed 5-37 nm spectrum than the common 81 day averaged F$_{10.7}$ proxy. The bremsstrahlung component of F$_{10.7}$ is also well approximated by the moderate-strength photospheric magnetic field parameterization from Henney et al. (2012), suggesting that it could be forecast for use in both atmospheric research and operational models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Validation of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with Observations from the Low Corona to 1 AU

We perform a validation study of the latest version of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). To do so, we compare the simulation results of the model with a comprehensive suite of observations for Carrington rotations representative of the solar minimum conditions extending from the solar corona to the heliosphere up to the Earth. In the low corona ($r < 1.25$ \Rs), we compare with EUV images from both STEREO-A/EUVI and SDO/AIA and to three-dimensional (3-D) tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density based on these same data. We also compare the model to tomographic reconstructions of the electron density from SOHO/LASCO observations ($2.55 < r < 6.0$\Rs). In the heliosphere, we compare model predictions of solar wind speed with velocity reconstructions from InterPlanetary Scintillation (IPS) observations. For comparison with observations near the Earth, we use OMNI data. Our results show that the improved AWSoM model performs well in quantitative agreement with the observations between the inner corona and 1 AU. The model now reproduces the fast solar wind speed in the polar regions. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, proton temperature and density. AWSoM offers an extensive application to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere in concert with current and future solar missions as well as being well suited for space weather predictions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Estimating Total Open Heliospheric Magnetic Flux

Over the solar-activity cycle, there are extended periods where significant discrepancies occur between the spacecraft-observed total (unsigned) open magnetic flux and that determined from coronal models. In this article, the total open heliospheric magnetic flux is computed using two different methods and then compared with results obtained from in-situ interplanetary magnetic-field observations. The first method uses two different types of photospheric magnetic-field maps as input to the Wang Sheeley Arge (WSA) model: i) traditional Carrington or diachronic maps, and ii) Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport model synchronic maps. The second method uses observationally derived helium and extreme-ultraviolet coronal-hole maps overlaid on the same magnetic-field maps in order to compute total open magnetic flux. The diachronic and synchronic maps are both constructed using magnetograms from the same source, namely the National Solar Observatory Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and Vector Spectromagnetograph. The results of this work show that the total open flux obtained from observationally derived coronal holes agrees remarkably well with that derived from WSA, especially near solar minimum. This suggests that, on average, coronal models capture well the observed large-scale coronal-hole structure over most of the solar cycle. Both methods show considerable deviations from total open flux deduced from spacecraft data, especially near solar maximum, pointing to something other than poorly determined coronal-hole area specification as the source of these discrepancies.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

The Open Flux Problem

The heliospheric magnetic field is of pivotal importance in solar and space physics. The field is rooted in the Sun's photosphere, where it has been observed for many years. Global maps of the solar magnetic field based on full disk magnetograms are commonly used as boundary conditions for coronal and solar wind models. Two primary observational constraints on the models are (1) the open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes observed in emission, and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. In this study, we calculate both MHD and PFSS solutions using fourteen different magnetic maps produced from five different types of observatory magnetograms, for the time period surrounding July, 2010. We have found that for all of the model/map combinations, models that have coronal hole areas close to observations underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match the interplanetary flux, the modeled open field regions are larger than coronal holes observed in EUV emission. In an alternative approach, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining automatically detected coronal holes for Carrington rotation 2098 with observatory synoptic magnetic maps. This approach also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. Our results imply that either typical observatory maps underestimate the Sun's magnetic flux, or a significant portion of the open magnetic flux is not rooted in regions that are obviously dark in EUV and X-ray emission.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Coronal Sources of the Solar F$_{10.7}$ Radio Flux

We present results from the first solar full-disk F$_{10.7}$ (the radio flux at $10.7$ cm, $2.8$ GHz) image taken with the S-band receivers on the recently upgraded Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) in order to assess the relationship between the F$_{10.7}$ index and solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) emission. To identify the sources of the observed $2.8$ GHz emission, we calculate differential emission measures (DEMs) from EUV images collected by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and use them to predict the bremsstrahlung component of the radio emission. By comparing the bremsstrahlung prediction and radio observation we find that $8.1\pm 0.5\%$ of the variable component of the F$_{10.7}$ flux is associated with the gyroresonance emission mechanism. Additionally, we identify optical depth effects on the radio limb which may complicate the use of F$_{10.7}$ time series as an EUV proxy. Our analysis is consistent with a coronal iron abundance that is $4$ times the photospheric level.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2008

Evidence for polar jets as precursors of polar plume formation

Observations from the Hinode/XRT telescope and STEREO/SECCHI/EUVI are utilized to study polar coronal jets and plumes. The study focuses on the temporal evolution of both structures and their relationship. The data sample, spanning April 7-8 2007, shows that over 90% of the 28 observed jet events are associated with polar plumes. EUV images (STEREO/SECCHI) show plume haze rising from the location of approximately 70% of the polar X-ray (Hinode/XRT) and EUV jets, with the plume haze appearing minutes to hours after the jet was observed. The remaining jets occurred in areas where plume material previously existed causing a brightness enhancement of the latter after the jet event. Short-lived, jet-like events and small transient bright points are seen (one at a time) at different locations within the base of pre-existing long-lived plumes. X-ray images also show instances (at least two events) of collimated-thin jets rapidly evolving into significantly wider plume-like structures that are followed by the delayed appearance of plume haze in the EUV. These observations provide evidence that X-ray jets are precursors of polar plumes, and in some cases cause brightenings of plumes. Possible mechanisms to explain the observed jet and plume relationship are discussed.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

On the Polar Field Distribution as Observed by SOLIS

We use Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) chromospheric full-disk magnetograms, from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) project, to study the distribution of magnetic field flux concentrations within the polar caps. We find that magnetic flux elements preferentially appear toward lower latitudes within the polar caps away from the poles. This has implications on numerous solar phenomena such as the formation and evolution of fine polar coronal structures (i.e., polar plumes). Our results also have implications for the processes carrying the magnetic flux from low to high latitudes (e.g., meridional circulation).

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

On the Latitude Distribution of the Polar Magnetic Flux as Observed by SOLIS-VSM

Magnetograms from the Vector SpectroMagnetograph (VSM) of the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) project are utilized to study the latitude distribution of magnetic flux elements as a function of latitude in the polar solar caps. We find that the density distribution of the magnetic flux normalized by the surface of the polar cap and averaged over months decreases close to the solar poles. This trend is more pronounced when considering only flux elements with relatively large size. The flux density of the latter is relatively flat from the edge of the polar cap up to latitudes of 70$^\circ$--75$^\circ$ and decreases significantly to the solar pole. The density of smaller flux features is more uniformly distributed although the decrease is still present but less pronounced. This result is important in studying meridional flows that bring the magnetic flux from lower to higher solar latitudes resulting in the solar cycle reversal. The results are also of importance in studying polar structures contributing to the fast solar wind, such as polar plumes.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

SOLIS Vector Spectromagnetograph: status and science

The Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) instrument has been recording photospheric and chromospheric magnetograms daily since August 2003. Full-disk photospheric vector magnetograms are observed at least weekly and, since November 2006, area-scans of active regions daily. Quick-look vector magnetic images, plus X3D and FITS formated files, are now publicly available daily. In the near future, Milne-Eddington inversion parameter data will also be available and a typical observing day will include three full-disk photospheric vector magnetograms. Besides full-disk observations, the VSM is capable of high temporal cadence area-scans of both the photosphere and chromosphere. Carrington rotation and daily synoptic maps are also available from the photospheric magnetograms and coronal hole estimate images.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Seething Horizontal Magnetic Fields in the Quiet Solar Photosphere

The photospheric magnetic field outside of active regions and the network has a ubiquitous and dynamic line-of-sight component that strengthens from disk center to limb as expected for a nearly horizontal orientation. This component shows a striking time variation with an average temporal rms near the limb of 1.7 G at ~3" resolution. In our moderate resolution observations the nearly horizontal component has a frequency variation power law exponent of -1.4 below 1.5 mHz and is spatially patchy on scales up to ~15 arcsec. The field may be a manifestation of changing magnetic connections between eruptions and evolution of small magnetic flux elements in response to convective motions. It shows no detectable latitude or longitude variations.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes

An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Magnetically Preferred Solar Longitudes: Reality?

The observed persistence of specific periodicities detected in time series associated with solar surface magnetic activity over several solar cycles has led to numerous papers supporting the existence of preferred longitudes. Recent analysis of the past 120 years of sunspot number data showed that no observed periodicity remained coherent for durations greater than two 11-year solar cycles. Here we address the question: Could the observed periodicities of solar magnetic signals on time scales of two decades be the result of a purely stochastic process? We begin to answer this by comparing phase coherence between observed periodic signals and signals from a model using longitudinally random eruptions. A surprisingly non-negligible likelihood is found, approximately 1 in 3, that observed periodicities from integrated full-disk solar parameters are a chance occurrence for time series on the order of 20 years in duration.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Automated Coronal Hole Detection using He I 1083 nm Spectroheliograms and Photospheric Magnetograms

A method for automated coronal hole detection using He I 1083 nm spectroheliograms and photospheric magnetograms is presented here. The unique line formation of the helium line allows for the detection of regions associated with solar coronal holes with minimal line-of-sight obscuration across the observed solar disk. The automated detection algorithm utilizes morphological image analysis, thresholding and smoothing to estimate the location, boundaries, polarity and flux of candidate coronal hole regions. The algorithm utilizes thresholds based on mean values determined from over 10 years of the Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope daily hand-drawn coronal hole images. A comparison between the automatically created and hand-drawn images for a 11-year period beginning in 1992 is outlined. In addition, the creation of synoptic maps using the daily automated coronal hole images is also discussed.

astro-ph↗