arXiv subjects

C. Möstl

Publications and source records attributed to C. Möstl.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

ARCANE -- Early Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are major drivers of space weather disturbances, posing risks to both technological infrastructure and human activities. Automatic detection of ICMEs in solar wind in situ data is essential for early warning systems. While several methods have been proposed to identify these structures in time series data, robust real-time detection remains a significant challenge. In this work, we present ARCANE - the first framework explicitly designed for early ICME detection in streaming solar wind data under realistic operational constraints, enabling event identification without requiring observation of the full structure. Our approach evaluates the strengths and limitations of detection models by comparing a machine learning-based method to a threshold-based baseline. The ResUNet++ model, previously validated on science data, significantly outperforms the baseline, particularly in detecting high-impact events, while retaining solid performance on lower-impact cases. Notably, we find that using real-time solar wind (RTSW) data instead of high-resolution science data leads to only minimal performance degradation. Despite the challenges of operational settings, our detection pipeline achieves an F1-Score of 0.37, with an average detection delay of 24.5% of the event's duration while processing only a minimal portion of the event data. As more data becomes available, the performance increases significantly. These results mark a substantial step forward in automated space weather monitoring and lay the groundwork for enhanced real-time forecasting capabilities.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

The impact of electron precipitation on Earth's thermospheric NO production and the drag of LEO satellites

We investigate the response of space weather events on Earth's upper atmosphere over the polar regions by studying their effect on the drag of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. Increasing solar activity that results in heating and the expansion of the upper atmosphere threatens low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Auroral events are closely related to the stellar energy deposition of solar EUV radiation and precipitating energetic electrons, which influence photochemical processes such as the production of nitric oxide (NO) in the upper atmosphere. To study the production of NO molecules and their influence on the thermospheric structure and satellite drag, we first model Earth's background thermosphere with the 1D upper atmosphere model Kompot by considering the incident X-ray, EUV, and IR radiation during selected space weather events. To investigate the effect of electron precipitation in the production of NO molecules in the polar thermosphere, we apply a Monte Carlo model accounting for the stochastic nature of collisional scattering of auroral electrons in collisions with the surrounding N$_2$-O$_2$ atmosphere, including the production of suprathermal N atoms. The observed effect of the atmospheric drag on CHAMP and GRACE during the two studied events indicates that a sporadic enhancement of NO molecule production in the polar thermosphere and its IR-cooling capability, which counteracts thermospheric expansion and can lead to an ``overcooling'' with decreased density after the space weather event, can have a protective effect on LEO satellites. Their production efficiency, however, is highly dependent on the energy flux of the precipitating electrons. Our results have direct implications for empirical satellite orbit prediction models, as our simulations highlight the need to consider precipitation-induced NO production to improve the predictive power of these models.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Using Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor for real time space weather predictions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internal structure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In this study, we take advantage of a rare opportunity to use Solar Orbiter, at 0.5\,AU upstream of Earth, as an upstream solar wind monitor. We were able to use real time science quality magnetic field measurements, taken only 12 minutes earlier, to predict the arrival time of a CME prior to reaching Earth. We used measurements at Solar Orbiter to constrain an ensemble of simulation runs from the ELEvoHI model, reducing the uncertainty in arrival time from 10.4\,hours to 2.5\,hours. There was also an excellent agreement in the $B_z$ profile between Solar Orbiter and Wind spacecraft, despite being separated by 0.5\,AU and 10$^{\circ}$ longitude. Therefore, we show that it is possible to predict not only the arrival time of a CME, but the sub-structure of the magnetic field within it, over a day in advance. The opportunity to use Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor will repeat once a year, which should further help assess the efficacy upstream in-situ measurements in real time space weather forecasting.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Turbulence Properties of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in the Inner Heliosphere: Dependence on Proton Beta and Flux Rope Structure

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) have low proton beta across a broad range of heliocentric distances and a magnetic flux rope structure at large scales, making them a unique environment for studying solar wind fluctuations. Power spectra of magnetic field fluctuations in 28 ICMEs observed between 0.25 and 0.95 au by Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe have been examined. At large scales, the spectra were dominated by power contained in the flux ropes. Subtraction of the background flux rope fields reduced the mean spectral index from $-5/3$ to $-3/2$ at $kd_i \leq 10^{-3}$. Rope subtraction also revealed shorter correlation lengths in the magnetic field. The spectral index was typically near $-5/3$ in the inertial range at all radial distances regardless of rope subtraction, and steepened to values consistently below $-3$ with transition to kinetic scales. The high-frequency break point terminating the inertial range evolved approximately linearly with radial distance and was closer in scale to the proton inertial length than the proton gyroscale, as expected for plasma at low proton beta. Magnetic compressibility at inertial scales did not show any significant correlation with radial distance, in contrast to the solar wind generally. In ICMEs, the distinctive spectral properties at injection scales appear mostly determined by the global flux rope structure while transition-kinetic properties are more influenced by the low proton beta; the intervening inertial range appears independent of both ICME features, indicative of a system-independent scaling of the turbulence.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

A fast bow shock location predictor-estimator from 2D and 3D analytical models: Application to Mars and the MAVEN mission

We present fast algorithms to automatically estimate the statistical position of the bow shock from spacecraft data, using existing analytical two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) models of the shock surface. We derive expressions of the standoff distances in 2D and 3D and of the normal to the bow shock at any given point on it. Two simple bow shock detection algorithms are constructed, one solely based on a geometrical predictor from existing models, the other using this predicted position to further refine it with the help of magnetometer data, an instrument flown on many planetary missions. Both empirical techniques are applicable to any planetary environment with a defined shock structure. Applied to the Martian environment and the NASA/MAVEN mission, the predicted shock position is on average within 0.15 planetary radius $R_p$ of the bow shock crossing. Using the predictor-corrector algorithm, this estimate is further refined to within a few minutes of the true crossing $\approx$0.05 $R_p$). Between 2014 and 2021, we detect 14,929 clear bow shock crossings, predominantly quasi-perpendicular. Thanks to 2D conic and 3D quadratic fits, we investigate the variability of the shock surface with respect to Mars Years (MY), solar longitude (Ls) and solar EUV flux levels. Although asymmetry in $Y$ and $Z$ Mars Solar Orbital coordinates is on average small, we show that for MY32 and MY35, Ls = [135-225$^\circ$] and high solar flux, it can become particularly noticeable, and is superimposed to the usual North-South asymmetry due in part to the presence of crustal magnetic fields.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Forecasting GICs and geoelectric fields from solar wind data using LSTMs: application in Austria

The forecasting of local GIC effects has largely relied on the forecasting of dB/dt as a proxy and, to date, little attention has been paid to directly forecasting the geoelectric field or GICs themselves. We approach this problem with machine learning tools, specifically recurrent neural networks or LSTMs by taking solar wind observations as input and training the models to predict two different kinds of output: first, the geoelectric field components Ex and Ey; and second, the GICs in specific substations in Austria. The training is carried out on the geoelectric field and GICs modelled from 26 years of one-minute geomagnetic field measurements, and results are compared to GIC measurements from recent years. The GICs are generally predicted better by an LSTM trained on values from a specific substation, but only a fraction of the largest GICs are correctly predicted. This model had a correlation with measurements of around 0.6, and a root-mean-square error of 0.7 A. The probability of detecting mild activity in GICs is around 50%, and 15% for larger GICs.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Multipoint interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind and STEREO-A

We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter (SolO) data in 2020 April - 2021 April. A data exploration analysis is performed including visualizations of the magnetic field and plasma observations made by the five spacecraft SolO, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe (PSP), Wind and STEREO-A, in connection with coronagraph and heliospheric imaging observations from STEREO-A/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO. We identify ICME events that could be unambiguously followed with the STEREO-A heliospheric imagers during their interplanetary propagation to their impact at the aforementioned spacecraft, and look for events where the same ICME is seen in situ by widely separated spacecraft. We highlight two events: (1) a small streamer blowout CME on 2020 June 23 observed with a triple lineup by PSP, BepiColombo and Wind, guided by imaging with STEREO-A, and (2) the first fast CME of solar cycle 25 ($ \approx 1600$ km s$^{-1}$) on 2020 November 29 observed in situ by PSP and STEREO-A. These results are useful for modeling the magnetic structure of ICMEs and the interplanetary evolution and global shape of their flux ropes and shocks, and for studying the propagation of solar energetic particles. The combined data from these missions are already turning out to be a treasure trove for space weather research and are expected to become even more valuable with an increasing number of ICME events expected during the rise and maximum of solar cycle 25.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Drag-based CME modeling with heliospheric images incorporating frontal deformation: ELEvoHI 2.0

The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study, we present the ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) and introduce a deformable front to this model. ELEvoHI relies on heliospheric imagers (HI) observations to obtain the kinematics of a CME. With the newly developed deformable front, the model is able to react to the ambient solar wind conditions during the entire propagation and along the whole front of the CME. To get an estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions, we make use of three different models: Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation model (HUX), Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time dependence model (HUXt), and EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). We test the deformable front on a CME first observed in STEREO-A/HI on February 3, 2010 14:49 UT. For this case study, the deformable front provides better estimates of the arrival time and arrival speed than the original version of ELEvoHI using an elliptical front. The new implementation enables us to study the parameters influencing the propagation of the CME not only for the apex, but for the entire front. The evolution of the CME front, especially at the flanks, is highly dependent on the ambient solar wind model used. An additional advantage of the new implementation is given by the possibility to provide estimates of the CME mass.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Using gradient boosting regression to improve ambient solar wind model predictions

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth's magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are used to output the solar wind conditions near the Earth. The results are compared to observations and existing models in a comprehensive validation analysis, and the new model outperforms existing models in almost all measures. In addition, this approach offers a new perspective to discuss the role of different input data to ambient solar wind modeling, and what this tells us about the underlying physical processes. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well-validated and open-source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2021

In situ multi-spacecraft and remote imaging observations of the first CME detected by Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo

On 2020 April 19 a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in situ on April 20th by the Wind and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study, as the spacecraft were separated by less than 5$^\circ$ in longitude. The source of the CME, which was launched on April 15th, was an almost entirely isolated streamer blowout. STEREO-A observed the event remotely from -75.1$^\circ$ longitude, which is an exceptionally well suited viewpoint for heliospheric imaging of an Earth directed CME. The configuration of the four spacecraft has provided an exceptionally clean link between remote imaging and in situ observations of the CME. We have used the in situ observations of the CME at Solar Orbiter, Wind, and BepiColombo, and the remote observations of the CME at STEREO-A in combination with flux rope models to determine the global shape of the CME and its evolution as it propagated through the inner heliosphere. A clear flattening of the CME cross-section has been observed by STEREO-A, and further confirmed by comparing profiles of the flux rope models to the in situ data, where the distorted flux rope cross-section qualitatively agrees most with in situ observations of the magnetic field at Solar Orbiter. Comparing in situ observations of the magnetic field between spacecraft, we find that the dependence of the maximum (mean) magnetic field strength decreases with heliocentric distance as $r^{-1.24 \pm 0.50}$ ($r^{-1.12 \pm 0.14}$), in disagreement with previous studies. Further assessment of the axial and poloidal magnetic field strength dependencies suggests that the expansion of the CME is likely neither self-similar nor cylindrically symmetric.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

CMEs in the Heliosphere: III. A Statistical Analysis of the Kinematic Properties Derived from Stereoscopic Geometrical Modelling Techniques Applied to CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2008 to 2014 by STEREO/HI-1

We present an analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on board NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Between August 2008 and April 2014 we identify 273 CMEs that are observed simultaneously, by the HIs on both spacecraft. For each CME, we track the observed leading edge, as a function of time, from both vantage points, and apply the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) technique to infer their propagation throughout the inner heliosphere. The technique is unable to accurately locate CMEs when their observed leading edge passes between the spacecraft, however, we are able to successfully apply the technique to 151, most of which occur once the spacecraft separation angle exceeds 180 degrees, during solar maximum. We find that using a small half-width to fit the CME can result in observed acceleration to unphysically high velocities and that using a larger half-width can fail to accurately locate the CMEs close to the Sun because the method does not account for CME over-expansion in this region. Observed velocities from SSSE are found to agree well with single-spacecraft (SSEF) analysis techniques applied to the same events. CME propagation directions derived from SSSE and SSEF analysis agree poorly because of known limitations present in the latter. This work was carried out as part of the EU FP7 HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service) project (http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Prediction of Dst during solar minimum using in situ measurements at L5

Geomagnetic storms resulting from high-speed streams can have significant negative impacts on modern infrastructure due to complex interactions between the solar wind and geomagnetic field. One measure of the extent of this effect is the Kyoto $Dst$ index. We present a method to predict $Dst$ from data measured at the Lagrange 5 (L5) point, which allows for forecasts of solar wind development 4.5 days in advance of the stream reaching the Earth. Using the STEREO-B satellite as a proxy, we map data measured near L5 to the near-Earth environment and make a prediction of the $Dst$ from this point using the Temerin-Li $Dst$ model enhanced from the original using a machine learning approach. We evaluate the method accuracy with both traditional point-to-point error measures and an event-based validation approach. The results show that predictions using L5 data outperform a 27-day solar wind persistence model in all validation measures but do not achieve a level similar to an L1 monitor. Offsets in timing and the rapidly-changing development of $B_z$ in comparison to $B_x$ and $B_y$ reduce the accuracy. Predictions of $Dst$ from L5 have an RMSE of $9$ nT, which is double the error of $4$ nT using measurements conducted near the Earth. The most useful application of L5 measurements is shown to be in predicting the minimum $Dst$ for the next four days. This method is being implemented in a real-time forecast setting using STEREO-A as an L5 proxy, and has implications for the usefulness of future L5 missions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Self-Similarity of ICME Flux Ropes: Observations by Radially Aligned Spacecraft in the Inner Heliosphere

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are a significant feature of the heliospheric environment and the primary cause of adverse space weather at the Earth. ICME propagation, and the evolution of ICME magnetic field structure during propagation, are still not fully understood. We analyze the magnetic field structures of 18 ICME magnetic flux ropes observed by radially aligned spacecraft in the inner heliosphere. Similarity in the underlying flux rope structures is determined through the application of a simple technique that maps the magnetic field profile from one spacecraft to the other. In many cases, the flux ropes show very strong underlying similarities at the different spacecraft. The mapping technique reveals similarities that are not readily apparent in the unmapped data and is a useful tool when determining whether magnetic field time series observed at different spacecraft are associated with the same ICME. Lundquist fitting has been applied to the flux ropes and the rope orientations have been determined; macroscale differences in the profiles at the aligned spacecraft may be ascribed to differences in flux rope orientation. Assuming that the same region of the ICME was observed by the aligned spacecraft in each case, the fitting indicates some weak tendency for the rope axes to reduce in inclination relative to the solar equatorial plane and to align with the solar east-west direction with heliocentric distance.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

The Magnetic Field Geometry of Small Solar Wind Flux Ropes Inferred from their Twist Distribution

This work extends recent efforts on the force-free modeling of large flux rope-type structures (magnetic clouds, MCs) to much smaller spatial scales. We first select small flux ropes (SFRs) by eye whose duration is unambiguous and which were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) or Wind spacecraft during solar maximum years. We inquire into which analytical technique is physically most appropriate. We consider three models: (i) linear force-free field ($\bigtriangledown\times$ B = $α(r) $ B) with a specific, prescribed constant $α$ (Lundquist solution), and (ii) with $α$ as a free constant parameter (Lundquist-alpha solution), (iii) uniform twist field (Gold-Hoyle solution). We retain only those cases where the impact parameter is less than one-half the FR radius, $R$, so the results should be robust (29 cases). The SFR radii lie in the range [$\sim$ 0.003, 0.059] AU. Comparing results, we find that the Lundquist-alpha and uniform twist solutions yielded comparable and small normalized $χ^2$ values in most cases. We then use Grad-Shafranov (GS) reconstruction to analyze these events further. We then considered the twist per unit length, $τ$, both its profile through the FR and its absolute value. We find $τ$ to lie in the range [5.6, 34] turns/AU. The GH model-derived $τ$ values are comparable to those obtained from GS reconstruction. We find that twist unit length ($L$) is inversely proportional to $R$, as $τ\sim 0.17/R$. We combine MC and SFR results on $τ(R)$ and give a relation which is approximately valid for both sets. The axial and azimuthal fluxes, $F_z$ and $F_ϕ$, vary as $\approx 2.1 B_0 R^2 \times10^{21}$ Mx and $F_ϕ/L \approx 0.36 B_0 R \times10^{21}$Mx/AU. The relative helicity per unit length, $H/L \approx 0.75 B_0^2 R^3$$\times 10^{42}$ Mx$^2$/AU.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

The influence of stellar flare on dynamical state of the atmosphere of exoplanet HD 209458b

By applying an one-dimensional aeronomic model of the upper atmosphere of the close-in giant planet HD 209458b, we study the reaction of the planetary atmosphere to an additional heating caused by the influence of a stellar flare. It is shown that the absorption of additional energy of the stellar flare in the extreme ultraviolet leads to local atmospheric heating, accompanied by formation of two shock waves, propagating in the atmosphere. We discuss possible observational manifestations of the shocks and feasibility of their detection.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard NASAs twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites don't simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes while, at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Correlation of ICME Magnetic Fields at Radially Aligned Spacecraft

The B-field structures of two ICMEs each observed by a pair of spacecraft close to radial alignment have been analysed. The ICMEs were observed in situ by MESSENGER and STEREO-B in Nov. 2010 and Nov. 2011, while the spacecraft were separated by more than 0.6 AU in heliocentric distance, less than 4° in heliographic longitude, and less than 7° in heliographic latitude. Both ICMEs took around 2 days to travel between the spacecraft. The ICME B-field profiles observed by MESSENGER have been mapped to the heliocentric distance of STEREO-B and compared directly to the profiles observed by STEREO-B. Figures that result from this mapping allow for easy qualitative assessment of similarity in the profiles. Macroscale features in the profiles that varied on timescales of 1 hour, and which corresponded to the underlying flux rope structure of the ICMEs, were well correlated in the solar east-west and north-south directions, with Pearson's correlation coefficients of around 0.85 and 0.95, respectively; microscale features with timescales of 1 minute were uncorrelated. Overall correlation values in the profiles of one ICME were increased when an apparent change in the flux rope axis direction between the observing spacecraft was taken into account. The high degree of similarity seen in the B-field profiles may be interpreted in in two ways. If the spacecraft sampled the same region of each ICME (i.e. if the spacecraft angular separations can be neglected), the similarity indicates that there was little evolution in the underlying structure of the sampled region during propagation. Alternatively, if the spacecraft observed different, nearby regions within the ICMEs, it indicates that there was spatial homogeneity across those different regions. The field structure similarity observed in these ICMEs points to the value of placing in situ space weather monitors well upstream of the Earth.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HI) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI-based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU. In our study we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined-up spacecraft MESSENGER and STEREO-B. Remote data from STEREO-B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth-directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from $3.5 \pm 2.6$ h to $1.6 \pm 1.1$ h at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth-directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally.

astro-ph.SR↗