arXiv subjects

C. Möstl

Publications and source records attributed to C. Möstl.

32 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

The Influence of Coronal Mass Ejections on the Mass-loss Rates of Hot-Jupiters

Hot-Jupiters are subject to extreme radiation and plasma flows coming from their host stars. Past ultraviolet Hubble Space Telescope observations, supported by hydrodynamic models, confirmed that these factors lead to the formation of an extended envelope, part of which lies beyond the Roche lobe. We use gas-dynamic simulations to study the impact of time variations in the parameters of the stellar wind, namely that of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on the envelope of the typical hot-Jupiter HD 209458b. We consider three CMEs characterized by different velocities and densities, taking their parameters from typical CMEs observed for the Sun. The perturbations in the ram-pressure of the stellar wind during the passage of each CME tear off most of the envelope that is located beyond the Roche lobe. This leads to a substantial increase of the mass-loss rates during the interaction with the CME. We find that the mass lost by the planet during the whole crossing of a CME is of ${\approx}10^{15}$ g, regardless of the CME taken into consideration. We also find that over the course of 1 Gyr, the mass lost by the planet because of CME impacts is comparable to that lost because of high-energy stellar irradiation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Prediction of Geomagnetic Storm Strength from Inner Heliospheric In Situ Observations

Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, Bz. Predicting the strength and duration of Bz inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, which forms the so-called Bz problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, Bz and the resulting Dst index at Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (< 1AU). On 2012 June 12-16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed the by the STEREO imagers, and by Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 AU, 6 degree away from the Sun Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA-Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed at Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: -96 and -114 nT (from 2 Dst models), observed: -71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 +- 23 km s-1, observed: 488 +- 30 km s-1) and timing (6 +- 1 hours after actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hours. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth, or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun--Earth line.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Long-Term Tracking of Corotating Density Structures using Heliospheric Imaging

The systematic monitoring of the solar wind in high-cadence and high-resolution heliospheric images taken by the Solar-Terrestrial Relation Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft permits the study of the spatial and temporal evolution of variable solar wind flows from the Sun out to 1~AU, and beyond. As part of the EU Framework 7 (FP7) Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) project, we have generated a catalogue listing the properties of 190 corotating structures well-observed in images taken by the Heliospheric Imager instruments on-board STEREO-A. We present here one of very few long-term analyses of solar wind structures advected by the background solar wind. This analysis confirms that most of the corotating density structures detected by the heliospheric imagers comprises a series of density inhomogeneities advected by the slow solar wind that eventually become entrained by stream interaction regions. We have derived the spatial-temporal evolution of each of these corotating density structures by using a well-established fitting technique. The mean radial propagation speed of the corotating structures is found to be $311 \pm 31$ km~s$^{-1}$. We predicted the arrival time of each corotating density structure at different probes. We show that the speeds of the corotating density structures derived using our fitting technique track well the long-term variation of the radial speed of the slow solar wind during solar minimum years (2007--2008). Furthermore, we demonstrate that these features originate near the coronal neutral line that eventually becomes the heliospheric current sheet.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Comparison of magnetic properties in a magnetic cloud and its solar source on April 11-14 2013

In the context of Sun-Earth connection of coronal mass ejections and magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), we studied the solar active region (AR) and the magnetic properties of magnetic cloud (MC) event during April 14-15, 2013. We use in-situ observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer and source AR measurements from the Solar Dynamic Observatory. The MCs magnetic structure is reconstructed from the Grad-Shafranov method which reveals a northern component of the axial field with left-handed helicity. The MC invariant axis is highly inclined to the ecliptic plane pointing northward and is rotated by $117^o$ with respect to the source region PIL. The net axial flux and current in the MC are comparatively higher than from the source region. Linear force-free alpha distribution ($10^{-7}-10^{-6}$ m$^{-1}$) at the sigmoid leg matches the range of twist number in the MC of 1-2 AU MFR. The MFR is non-linear force-free with decreasing twist from the axis (9 turns/AU) towards the edge. Therefore Gold-Hoyle (GH) configuration, assuming a constant twist, is more consistent with the MC structure than the Lundquist configuration of increasing twist from the axis to boundary. As an indication to that, the GH configuration yields better fitting to the global trend of in-situ magnetic field components, in terms of rms, than the Lundquist model. These cylindrical configurations improved the MC fitting results when considered the effect of self-similar expansion of MFR. For such twisting behaviour, this study suggests an alternative fitting procedure to better characterise the MC magnetic structure and its source region links.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Propagation of the 7 January 2014 CME and Resulting Geomagnetic Non-Event

On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of $\approx$49 hours and a $K_{\rm P}$ geomagnetic index of only $3-$. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We explore a series of simulations to isolate the effects of the background solar wind solution, CME shape, tilt, location, size, and speed, and the results are compared with observed in-situ arrivals at Venus, Earth, and Mars. Our results show that a tilted ellipsoid CME shape improves the initial real-time prediction to better reflect the observed in-situ signatures and the geomagnetic storm strength. CME parameters from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model used as input to WSA--ENLIL+Cone, along with a tilted ellipsoid cloud shape, improve the arrival-time error by 14.5, 18.7, 23.4 hours for Venus, Earth, and Mars respectively. These results highlight that CME orientation and directionality with respect to observatories play an important role in understanding the propagation of this CME, and for forecasting other glancing CME arrivals. This study also demonstrates the importance of three-dimensional CME fitting made possible by multiple viewpoint imaging.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 \: km \: s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 \pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 \pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$Φ$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 \pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 \pm 288 \: km \: s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 \pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 \pm 50 \: km \: s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Magnetic Field Configuration Models and Reconstruction Methods for Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

This study aims to provide a reference to different magnetic field models and reconstruction methods for interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). In order to understand the differences in the outputs of those models and codes, we analyze 59 events from the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) list, using four different magnetic field models and reconstruction techniques; force-free fitting (Goldstein,1983,Burlaga,1988,Lepping et al.,1990), magnetostatic reconstruction using a numerical solution to the Grad-Shafranov equation (Hu and Sonnerup, 2001), fitting to a self-similarly expanding cylindrical configuration (Marubashi and Lepping, 2007) and elliptical, non-force free fitting (Hidalgo,2003). The resulting parameters of the reconstructions for the 59 events are compared statistically, as well as in selected case studies. The ability of a method to fit or reconstruct an event is found to vary greatly: the Grad-Shafranov reconstruction is successful for most magnetic clouds (MCs) but for less than 10% of the non-MC ICMEs; the other three methods provide a successful fit for more than 65% of all events. The differences between the reconstruction and fitting methods are discussed, and suggestions are proposed as to how to reduce them. We find that the magnitude of the axial field is relatively consistent across models but not the orientation of the axis of the ejecta. We also find that there are a few cases for which different signs of the magnetic helicity are found for the same event when we do not fix the boundaries, illustrating that this simplest of parameters is not necessarily always well constrained by fitting and reconstruction models. Finally, we look at three unique cases in depth to provide a comprehensive idea of the different aspects of how the fitting and reconstruction codes work.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Multi-point shock and flux rope analysis of multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections around 2010 August 1 in the inner heliosphere

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory/ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory) monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degree in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE and ARTEMIS near Earth, and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (~ -100 nT), caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

The Deflection of the Two Interacting Coronal Mass Ejections of 2010 May 23-24 as Revealed by Combined In situ Measurements and Heliospheric Imaging

In 2010 May 23-24, SDO observed the launch of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which were subsequently tracked by the SECCHI suite onboard STEREO. Using the COR2 coronagraphs and the heliospheric imagers (HIs), the initial direction of both CMEs is determined to be slightly west of the Sun-Earth line. We derive the CME kinematics, including the evolution of the CME expansion until 0.4 AU. We find that, during the interaction, the second CME decelerates from a speed above 500 km/s to 380 km/s the speed of the leading edge of the first CME. STEREO observes a complex structure composed of two different bright tracks in HI2-A but only one bright track in HI2-B. In situ measurements from Wind show an "isolated" ICME, with the geometry of a flux rope preceded by a shock. Measurements in the sheath are consistent with draping around the transient. By combining remote-sensing and in situ measurements, we determine that this event shows a clear instance of deflection of two CMEs after their collision, and we estimate the deflection of the first CME to be about 10 degrees towards the Sun-Earth line. The arrival time, arrival speed and radius at Earth of the first CME are best predicted from remote-sensing observations taken before the collision of the CMEs. Due to the over-expansion of the CME after the collision, there are few, if any, signs of interaction in in situ measurements. This study illustrates that complex interactions during the Sun-to-Earth propagation may not be revealed by in situ measurements alone.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2012

Constraining the Kinematics of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Inner Heliosphere with In-Situ Signatures

We present a new approach to combine remote observations and in situ data by STEREO/HI and Wind, respectively, to derive the kinematics and propagation directions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We used two methods, Fixed-Phi and Harmonic Mean, to convert ICME elongations into distance, and constrained the ICME direction such that the ICME distance-time and velocity-time profiles are most consistent with in situ measurements of the arrival time and velocity. The derived velocity-time functions from the Sun to 1 AU for the three events under study (1-6 June 2008, 13-18 February 2009, 3-5 April 2010) do not show strong differences for the two extreme geometrical assumptions of a wide ICME with a circular front (Harmonic Mean) or an ICME of small spatial extent in the ecliptic (Fixed-Phi). Due to the geometrical assumptions, Harmonic Mean delivers the propagation direction further away from the observing spacecraft with a mean difference of ~25 degree.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Coronal Dimmings and the Early Phase of a CME Observed with STEREO and Hinode/EIS

We investigate the early phase of the 13 February 2009 coronal mass ejection (CME). Observations with the twin STEREO spacecraft in quadrature allow us to compare for the first time in one and the same event the temporal evolution of coronal EUV dimmings, observed simultaneously on-disk and above the limb. We find that these dimmings are synchronized and appear during the impulsive acceleration phase of the CME, with the highest EUV intensity drop occurring a few minutes after the maximum CME acceleration. During the propagation phase two confined, bipolar dimming regions, appearing near the footpoints of a pre-flare sigmoid structure, show an apparent migration away from the site of the CME-associated flare. Additionally, they rotate around the 'center' of the flare site, i.e., the configuration of the dimmings exhibits the same 'sheared-to-potential' evolution as the postflare loops. We conclude that the motion pattern of the twin dimmings reflects not only the eruption of the flux rope, but also the ensuing stretching of the overlying arcade. Finally, we find that: (1) the global-scale dimmings, expanding from the source region of the eruption, propagate with a speed similar to that of the leaving CME front; (2) the mass loss occurs mainly during the period of strongest CME acceleration. Two hours after the eruption Hinode/EIS observations show no substantial plasma outflow, originating from the 'open' field twin dimming regions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

Arrival time calculation for interplanetary coronal mass ejections with circular fronts and application to STEREO observations of the 2009 February 13 eruption

A goal of the NASA STEREO mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape (Fixed-Φ(FP): a point and harmonic Mean (HM): a circle). These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumptions of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km/s) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hours than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hours for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case the ICME has to be tracked to > 30° elongation to get arrival time errors < 5 hours. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2009

The size distribution of magnetic bright points derived from Hinode/SOT observations

Context. Magnetic Bright Points (MBPs) are small-scale magnetic features in the solar photosphere. They may be a possible source of coronal heating by rapid footpoint motions that cause magnetohydrodynamical waves. The number and size distribution are of vital importance in estimating the small scale-magnetic-field energy. Aims. The size distribution of MBPs is derived for G-band images acquired by the Hinode/SOT instrument. Methods. For identification purposes, a new automated segmentation and identification algorithm was developed. Results. For a sampling of 0.108 arcsec/pixel, we derived a mean diameter of (218 +- 48) km for the MBPs. For the full resolved data set with a sampling of 0.054 arcsec/pixel, the size distribution shifted to a mean diameter of (166 +- 31) km. The determined diameters are consistent with earlier published values. The shift is most probably due to the different spatial sampling. Conclusions. We conclude that the smallest magnetic elements in the solar photosphere cannot yet be resolved by G-band observations. The influence of discretisation effects (sampling) has also not yet been investigated sufficiently.

astro-ph.SR↗