arXiv subjects

Carlos Lima Azevedo

Publications and source records attributed to Carlos Lima Azevedo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dynamic multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based pricing and incentivization approach in multimodal transportation networks

In multimodal transportation systems, shared mobility services (SMSs) are promoted for their potential to enhance flexibility and reduce congestion. However, SMS demand is often concentrated in high-density areas, which can limit the effectiveness and accessibility for various commuter groups. This uneven integration challenges transportation system efficiency, especially in terms of emissions and spatial equity. Addressing these issues requires coordination among multiple stakeholders whose objectives frequently conflict. Whereas authorities aim to ensure sustainable and equitable mobility, SMS providers focus on revenue maximization, and travelers seek to minimize personal travel costs. This paper proposes a multi-agent deep reinforcement learning framework that captures these interactions through dynamic pricing and incentivization strategies for SMSs and public transport. The framework integrates two reinforcement learning (RL) agents: (i) a public authority that allocates spatio-temporal public transport incentives to improve equity, emissions, and efficiency, and (ii) an SMS provider that dynamically adjusts fares to optimize revenue. The agents interact with the transportation system and adapt strategies in response to evolving demand, congestion, and network conditions. Numerical experiments conducted over a three-hour morning peak period show that dynamic incentivization effectively reduces congestion peaks, lowers commuters' costs by around 20% and emissions by approximately 10%, while nearly doubling public transport profit and supporting a more equitable distribution of benefits. When combined with dynamic SMS pricing, the two RL agents demonstrate the ability to balance conflicting objectives between private providers and public authorities. The proposed approach provides a decision-support tool for sustainable and equitable multimodal mobility planning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Urban Spaces: Interpolating Citywide Traffic Volume

Graph Neural Networks have shown strong performance in traffic volume forecasting, particularly on highways and major arterial networks. Applying them to urban settings, however, presents unique challenges: urban networks exhibit greater structural diversity, traffic volumes are highly overdispersed with many zeros, the best way to account for spatial dependencies remains unclear, and sensor coverage is often very sparse. We introduce the Graph Neural Network for Urban Interpolation (GNNUI), a novel urban traffic volume estimation approach. GNNUI employs a masking algorithm to learn interpolation, integrates node features to capture functional roles, and uses a loss function tailored to zero-inflated traffic distributions. In addition to the model, we introduce two new open, large-scale urban traffic volume benchmarks, covering different transportation modes: Strava cycling data from Berlin and New York City taxi data. GNNUI outperforms recent, some graph-based, interpolation methods across metrics (MAE, RMSE, true-zero rate, Kullback-Leibler divergence) and remains robust from 90% to 1% sensor coverage. For example, on the Strava dataset, the MAE increases only from 7.1 to 10.5, and on the Taxi dataset, from 23.0 to 40.4. These results demonstrate that GNNUI maintains strong performance despite extreme data scarcity, a common condition in real-world urban settings. We also examine how graph connectivity choices influence model accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Robustness of Reinforcement Learning-Based Traffic Signal Control under Incidents: A Comparative Study

Reinforcement learning-based traffic signal control (RL-TSC) has emerged as a promising approach for improving urban mobility. However, its robustness under real-world disruptions such as traffic incidents remains largely underexplored. In this study, we introduce T-REX, an open-source, SUMO-based simulation framework for training and evaluating RL-TSC methods under dynamic, incident scenarios. T-REX models realistic network-level performance considering drivers' probabilistic rerouting, speed adaptation, and contextual lane-changing, enabling the simulation of congestion propagation under incidents. To assess robustness, we propose a suite of metrics that extend beyond conventional traffic efficiency measures. Through extensive experiments across synthetic and real-world networks, we showcase T-REX for the evaluation of several state-of-the-art RL-TSC methods under multiple real-world deployment paradigms. Our findings show that while independent value-based and decentralized pressure-based methods offer fast convergence and generalization in stable traffic conditions and homogeneous networks, their performance degrades sharply under incident-driven distribution shifts. In contrast, hierarchical coordination methods tend to offer more stable and adaptable performance in large-scale, irregular networks, benefiting from their structured decision-making architecture. However, this comes with the trade-off of slower convergence and higher training complexity. These findings highlight the need for robustness-aware design and evaluation in RL-TSC research. T-REX contributes to this effort by providing an open, standardized and reproducible platform for benchmarking RL methods under dynamic and disruptive traffic scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multi-Graph Inductive Representation Learning for Large-Scale Urban Rail Demand Prediction under Disruptions

With the expansion of cities over time, URT (Urban Rail Transit) networks have also grown significantly. Demand prediction plays an important role in supporting planning, scheduling, fleet management, and other operational decisions. In this study, we propose an Origin-Destination (OD) demand prediction model called Multi-Graph Inductive Representation Learning (mGraphSAGE) for large-scale URT networks under operational uncertainties. Our main contributions are twofold: we enhance prediction results while ensuring scalability for large networks by relying simultaneously on multiple graphs, where each OD pair is a node on a graph and distinct OD relationships, such as temporal and spatial correlations; we show the importance of including operational uncertainties such as train delays and cancellations as inputs in demand prediction for daily operations. The model is validated on three different scales of the URT network in Copenhagen, Denmark. Experimental results show that by leveraging information from neighboring ODs and learning node representations via sampling and aggregation, mGraphSAGE is particularly suitable for OD demand prediction in large-scale URT networks, outperforming reference machine learning methods. Furthermore, during periods with train cancellations and delays, the performance gap between mGraphSAGE and other methods improves compared to normal operating conditions, demonstrating its ability to leverage system reliability information for predicting OD demand under uncertainty.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Deep-seeded Clustering for Emotion Recognition from Wearable Physiological Sensors

According to the circumplex model of affect, an emotional response could characterized by a level of pleasure (valence) and intensity (arousal). As it reflects on the autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity, modern wearable wristbands can record non-invasively and during our everyday lives peripheral end-points of this response. While emotion recognition from physiological signals is usually achieved using supervised machine learning algorithms that require ground truth labels for training, collecting it is cumbersome and particularly unfeasible in naturalistic settings, and extracting meaningful insights from these signals requires domain knowledge and might be prone to bias. Here, we propose and test a deep-seeded clustering algorithm that automatically extracts and classifies features from those physiological signals with minimal supervision - combining an autoencoder (AE) for unsupervised feature representation and c-means clustering for fine-grained classification. We also show that the model obtains good performance results across three different datasets frequently used in affective computing studies (accuracies of 80.7% on WESAD, 64.2% on Stress-Predict and 61.0% on CEAP360-VR).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Day-to-day Dynamic Tolling in Tradable Credit Schemes

Tradable credit schemes (TCS) are an increasingly studied alternative to congestion pricing, given their revenue neutrality and ability to address issues of equity through the initial credit allocation. Modeling TCS to aid future design and implementation is associated with challenges involving user and market behaviors, demand-supply dynamics, and control mechanisms. In this paper, we focus on the latter and address the day-to-day dynamic tolling problem under TCS, which is formulated as a discrete-time Markov Decision Process and solved using reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Our results indicate that RL algorithms achieve travel times and social welfare comparable to the Bayesian optimization benchmark, with generalization across varying capacities and demand levels. We further assess the robustness of RL under different hyperparameters and apply regularization techniques to mitigate action oscillation, which generates practical tolling strategies that are transferable under day-to-day demand and supply variability. Finally, we discuss potential challenges such as scaling to large networks, and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to improve computational efficiency and facilitate the practical deployment of RL-based TCS solutions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Scenario Discovery for Urban Planning: The Case of Green Urbanism and the Impact on Stress

Urban environments significantly influence mental health outcomes, yet the role of an effective framework for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) for optimizing urban policies for stress reduction remains underexplored. While existing research has demonstrated the effects of urban design on mental health, there is a lack of systematic scenario-based analysis to guide urban planning decisions. This study addresses this gap by applying Scenario Discovery (SD) in urban planning to evaluate the effectiveness of urban vegetation interventions in stress reduction across different urban environments using a predictive model based on emotional responses collected from a neuroscience-based outdoor experiment in Lisbon. Combining these insights with detailed urban data from Copenhagen, we identify key intervention thresholds where vegetation-based solutions succeed or fail in mitigating stress responses. Our findings reveal that while increased vegetation generally correlates with lower stress levels, high-density urban environments, crowding, and individual psychological traits (e.g., extraversion) can reduce its effectiveness. This work showcases our Scenario Discovery framework as a systematic approach for identifying robust policy pathways in urban planning, opening the door for its exploration in other urban decision-making contexts where uncertainty and design resiliency are critical.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Choice Sets and Smart Card Data In Public Transport Route Choice Models: Generated vs. Empirical Sets

This study evaluates path sets generation for route choice models in multimodal public transportation networks, using both conventional (network algorithms) and empirical (smart card data driven) methods. While the empirical approach can present limitations with a short observation period, it improves substantially with more data, offering a computational efficiency advantage over conventional methods. In such approach, while incorporating real-world delays increased travel time variability, it still aligned with planned travel times, and relaxing access/egress assumptions further enhanced coverage. Work is undergoing on the evaluation of the impact of different choice sets in bias and efficiency of route choice parameter estimates.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Assessing the impacts of tradable credit schemes through agent-based simulation

Tradable credit schemes (TCS) have been attracting interest from the transportation research community as an appealing alternative to congestion pricing, due to the advantages of revenue neutrality and equity. Nonetheless, existing research has largely employed network and market equilibrium approaches with simplistic characterizations of transportation demand, supply, credit market operations, and market behavior. Agent- and activity-based simulation affords a natural means to comprehensively assess TCS by more realistically modeling demand, supply, and individual market interactions. We propose an integrated simulation framework for modeling a TCS, and implements it within the state-of-the-art open-source urban simulation platform SimMobility, including: (a) a flexible TCS design that considers multiple trips and explicitly accounts for individual trading behaviors; (b) a simulation framework that captures the complex interactions between a TCS regulator, the traveler, and the TCS market itself, with the flexibility to test future TCS designs and relevant mobility models; and (c) a set of simulation experiments on a large mesoscopic multimodal network combined with a Bayesian Optimization approach for TCS optimal design. The experiment results indicate network and market performance to stabilize over the day-to-day process, showing the alignment of our agent-based simulation with the known theoretical properties of TCS. We confirm the efficiency of TCS in reducing congestion under the adopted market behavioral assumptions and open the door for simulating different individual behaviors. We measure how TCS impacts differently the local network, heterogeneous users, the different travel behaviors, and how testing different TCS designs can avoid negative market trading behaviors.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Which cycling environment appears safer? Learning cycling safety perceptions from pairwise image comparisons

Cycling is critical for cities to transition to more sustainable transport modes. Yet, safety concerns remain a critical deterrent for individuals to cycle. If individuals perceive an environment as unsafe for cycling, it is likely that they will prefer other means of transportation. Yet, capturing and understanding how individuals perceive cycling risk is complex and often slow, with researchers defaulting to traditional surveys and in-loco interviews. In this study, we tackle this problem. We base our approach on using pairwise comparisons of real-world images, repeatedly presenting respondents with pairs of road environments and asking them to select the one they perceive as safer for cycling, if any. Using the collected data, we train a siamese-convolutional neural network using a multi-loss framework that learns from individuals' responses, learns preferences directly from images, and includes ties (often discarded in the literature). Effectively, this model learns to predict human-style perceptions, evaluating which cycling environments are perceived as safer. Our model achieves good results, showcasing this approach has a real-life impact, such as improving interventions' effectiveness. Furthermore, it facilitates the continuous assessment of changing cycling environments, permitting short-term evaluations of measures to enhance perceived cycling safety. Finally, our method can be efficiently deployed in different locations with a growing number of openly available street-view images.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Applied metamodelling for ATM performance simulations

The use of Air traffic management (ATM) simulators for planing and operations can be challenging due to their modelling complexity. This paper presents XALM (eXplainable Active Learning Metamodel), a three-step framework integrating active learning and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values into simulation metamodels for supporting ATM decision-making. XALM efficiently uncovers hidden relationships among input and output variables in ATM simulators, those usually of interest in policy analysis. Our experiments show XALM's predictive performance comparable to the XGBoost metamodel with fewer simulations. Additionally, XALM exhibits superior explanatory capabilities compared to non-active learning metamodels. Using the `Mercury' (flight and passenger) ATM simulator, XALM is applied to a real-world scenario in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, extending an arrival manager's range and scope by analysing six variables. This case study illustrates XALM's effectiveness in enhancing simulation interpretability and understanding variable interactions. By addressing computational challenges and improving explainability, XALM complements traditional simulation-based analyses. Lastly, we discuss two practical approaches for reducing the computational burden of the metamodelling further: we introduce a stopping criterion for active learning based on the inherent uncertainty of the metamodel, and we show how the simulations used for the metamodel can be reused across key performance indicators, thus decreasing the overall number of simulations needed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Scoring Cycling Environments Perceived Safety using Pairwise Image Comparisons

Today, many cities seek to transition to more sustainable transportation systems. Cycling is critical in this transition for shorter trips, including first-and-last-mile links to transit. Yet, if individuals perceive cycling as unsafe, they will not cycle and choose other transportation modes. This study presents a novel approach to identifying how the perception of cycling safety can be analyzed and understood and the impact of the built environment and cycling contexts on such perceptions. We base our work on other perception studies and pairwise comparisons, using real-world images to survey respondents. We repeatedly show respondents two road environments and ask them to select the one they perceive as safer for cycling. We compare several methods capable of rating cycling environments from pairwise comparisons and classify cycling environments perceived as safe or unsafe. Urban planning can use this score to improve interventions' effectiveness and improve cycling promotion campaigns. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the continuous assessment of changing cycling environments, allows for a short-term evaluation of measures, and is efficiently deployed in different locations or contexts.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Attitudes and Latent Class Choice Models using Machine learning

Latent Class Choice Models (LCCM) are extensions of discrete choice models (DCMs) that capture unobserved heterogeneity in the choice process by segmenting the population based on the assumption of preference similarities. We present a method of efficiently incorporating attitudinal indicators in the specification of LCCM, by introducing Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to formulate latent variables constructs. This formulation overcomes structural equations in its capability of exploring the relationship between the attitudinal indicators and the decision choice, given the Machine Learning (ML) flexibility and power in capturing unobserved and complex behavioural features, such as attitudes and beliefs. All of this while still maintaining the consistency of the theoretical assumptions presented in the Generalized Random Utility model and the interpretability of the estimated parameters. We test our proposed framework for estimating a Car-Sharing (CS) service subscription choice with stated preference data from Copenhagen, Denmark. The results show that our proposed approach provides a complete and realistic segmentation, which helps design better policies.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Active Learning with Fully Bayesian Gaussian Processes

The bias-variance trade-off is a well-known problem in machine learning that only gets more pronounced the less available data there is. In active learning, where labeled data is scarce or difficult to obtain, neglecting this trade-off can cause inefficient and non-optimal querying, leading to unnecessary data labeling. In this paper, we focus on active learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs). For the GP, the bias-variance trade-off is made by optimization of the two hyperparameters: the length scale and noise-term. Considering that the optimal mode of the joint posterior of the hyperparameters is equivalent to the optimal bias-variance trade-off, we approximate this joint posterior and utilize it to design two new acquisition functions. The first one is a Bayesian variant of Query-by-Committee (B-QBC), and the second is an extension that explicitly minimizes the predictive variance through a Query by Mixture of Gaussian Processes (QB-MGP) formulation. Across six simulators, we empirically show that B-QBC, on average, achieves the best marginal likelihood, whereas QB-MGP achieves the best predictive performance. We show that incorporating the bias-variance trade-off in the acquisition functions mitigates unnecessary and expensive data labeling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Market Design for Tradable Mobility Credits

Tradable mobility credit (TMC) schemes are an approach to travel demand management that have received significant attention in recent years. This paper proposes and analyzes alternative market models for a TMC system -- focusing on market design aspects such as allocation/expiration of tokens, rules governing trading, transaction fees, and regulator intervention -- and develops a methodology to explicitly model the dis-aggregate behavior of individuals within the market. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted within a combined mode and departure time context for the morning commute problem to compare the performance of the alternative designs relative to congestion pricing and a no-control scenario. The simulation experiments employ a day-to-day assignment framework wherein transportation demand is modeled using a logit-mixture model with income effects and supply is modeled using a standard bottleneck model. The results indicate that small fixed transaction fees can effectively mitigate undesirable behavior in the market without a significant loss in efficiency (total welfare) whereas proportional transaction fees are less effective both in terms of efficiency and in avoiding undesirable market behavior. Further, an allocation of tokens in continuous time can be beneficial in dealing with non-recurrent events and avoiding concentrated trading activity. In the presence of income effects, despite small fixed transaction fees, the TMC system yields a marginally higher social welfare than congestion pricing while attaining revenue neutrality. Further, it is more robust in the presence of forecasting errors and non-recurrent events due to the adaptiveness of the market. Finally, as expected, the TMC scheme is more equitable (when revenues from congestion pricing are not redistributed) although it is not guaranteed to be Pareto-improving when tokens are distributed equally.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Combining Discrete Choice Models and Neural Networks through Embeddings: Formulation, Interpretability and Performance

This study proposes a novel approach that combines theory and data-driven choice models using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In particular, we use continuous vector representations, called embeddings, for encoding categorical or discrete explanatory variables with a special focus on interpretability and model transparency. Although embedding representations within the logit framework have been conceptualized by Pereira (2019), their dimensions do not have an absolute definitive meaning, hence offering limited behavioral insights in this earlier work. The novelty of our work lies in enforcing interpretability to the embedding vectors by formally associating each of their dimensions to a choice alternative. Thus, our approach brings benefits much beyond a simple parsimonious representation improvement over dummy encoding, as it provides behaviorally meaningful outputs that can be used in travel demand analysis and policy decisions. Additionally, in contrast to previously suggested ANN-based Discrete Choice Models (DCMs) that either sacrifice interpretability for performance or are only partially interpretable, our models preserve interpretability of the utility coefficients for all the input variables despite being based on ANN principles. The proposed models were tested on two real world datasets and evaluated against benchmark and baseline models that use dummy-encoding. The results of the experiments indicate that our models deliver state-of-the-art predictive performance, outperforming existing ANN-based models while drastically reducing the number of required network parameters.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Managing network congestion with a tradable credit scheme: a trip-based MFD approach

This study investigates the efficiency and effectiveness of an area-based tradable credit scheme (TCS) using the trip-based Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram model for the morning commute problem. In the proposed TCS, the regulator distributes initial credits to all travelers and designs a time-varying and trip length specific credit tariff. Credits are traded between travelers and the regulator via a credit market, and the credit price is determined by the demand and supply of credits. The heterogeneity of travelers is considered in terms of desired arrival time, trip length and departure-time choice preferences. The TCS is incorporated into a day-to-day modelling framework to examine the travelers' learning process, the evolution of network, and the properties of the credit market. The existence of an equilibrium solution and the uniqueness of the credit price at the equilibrium state are established analytically. Furthermore, an open-source simulation framework is developed to validate the analytical properties of the proposed TCS and compare it with alternative control strategies in terms of mobility, network performance, and social welfare. Bayesian optimization is then adopted to optimize the credit toll scheme. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed TCS outperforms the no-control case and matches the performance of the time-of-day pricing strategy, while maintaining revenue-neutral nature.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2020

Bayesian Optimization of Area-based Road Pricing

This study presents a Bayesian Optimization framework for area- and distance-based time-of-day pricing (TODP) for urban networks. The road pricing optimization problem can reach high level of complexity depending on the pricing scheme considered, its associated detailed network properties and the affected heterogeneous demand features. We consider heterogeneous travellers with individual-specific trip attributes and departure-time choice parameters together with a Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) model for the urban network. Its mathematical formulation is presented and an agent-based simulation framework is constructed as evaluation function for the TODP optimization problem. The latter becomes highly nonlinear and relying on an expensive-to-evaluate objective function. We then present and test a Bayesian Optimization approach to compute different time-of-day pricing schemes by maximizing social welfare. Our proposed method learns the relationship between the prices and welfare within a few iterations and is able to find good solutions even in scenarios with high dimensionality in the decision variables space, setting a path for complexity reduction in more realistic road pricing optimization problems. Furthermore and as expected, the simulation results show that TODP improves the social welfare against the no-pricing case.

cs.MA↗