arXiv subjects

Carlos Lima Azevedo

Publications and source records attributed to Carlos Lima Azevedo.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

QTIP: Quick simulation-based adaptation of Traffic model per Incident Parameters

Current data-driven traffic prediction models are usually trained with large datasets, e.g. several months of speeds and flows. Such models provide very good fit for ordinary road conditions, but often fail just when they are most needed: when traffic suffers a sudden and significant disruption, such as a road incident. In this work, we describe QTIP: a simulation-based framework for quasi-instantaneous adaptation of prediction models upon traffic disruption. In a nutshell, QTIP performs real-time simulations of the affected road for multiple scenarios, analyzes the results, and suggests a change to an ordinary prediction model accordingly. QTIP constructs the simulated scenarios per properties of the incident, as conveyed by immediate distress signals from affected vehicles. Such real-time signals are provided by In-Vehicle Monitor Systems, which are becoming increasingly prevalent world-wide. We experiment QTIP in a case study of a Danish motorway, and the results show that QTIP can improve traffic prediction in the first critical minutes of road incidents.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

A blockchain-based user-centric emission monitoring and trading system for multi-modal mobility

Since the transport sector accounts for one of the highest shares of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, several existing proposals state the idea to control the by the transportation sector caused GHG emissions through an Emission Trading Systems (ETS). However, most existing approaches integrate GHG emissions through the fuel consumption and car registration, limiting the tracing of emissions in more complex modes e.g. shared vehicles, shared rides and even public transportation. This paper presents a new design of a user-centric ETS and its implementation as a carbon Blockchain framework for Smart Mobility Data-market (cBSMD). The cBSMD allows for the seamless transactions of token-equivalent GHG emissions when realizing a trip, or an emission trading action as well as the transaction of individual, service or system-wide emission performance data. We demonstrate an instance of the cBSMD implementation for the transactions of an ETS where all travellers receive a certain amount of emission credits in the form of tokens, linked to the GHG price and a total emission cap. Travellers use their tokens each time they emit GHG when travelling in a multi-modal network, purchase tokens for a given trip when they have an insufficient token amount or sell when having a surplus of tokens due to a lower amount of emitted GHG. This instance of cBSMD is then applied to a case-study of 24hours of mobility of 3,186 travellers from Oakville, Ontario, Canada, where we showcase different cBSMD transactions and analyze token usage and emission performance.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Towards Robust Deep Reinforcement Learning for Traffic Signal Control: Demand Surges, Incidents and Sensor Failures

Reinforcement learning (RL) constitutes a promising solution for alleviating the problem of traffic congestion. In particular, deep RL algorithms have been shown to produce adaptive traffic signal controllers that outperform conventional systems. However, in order to be reliable in highly dynamic urban areas, such controllers need to be robust with the respect to a series of exogenous sources of uncertainty. In this paper, we develop an open-source callback-based framework for promoting the flexible evaluation of different deep RL configurations under a traffic simulation environment. With this framework, we investigate how deep RL-based adaptive traffic controllers perform under different scenarios, namely under demand surges caused by special events, capacity reductions from incidents and sensor failures. We extract several key insights for the development of robust deep RL algorithms for traffic control and propose concrete designs to mitigate the impact of the considered exogenous uncertainties.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Road safety of passing maneuvers: a bivariate extreme value theory approach under non-stationary conditions

Observed accidents have been the main resource for road safety analysis over the past decades. Although such reliance seems quite straightforward, the rare nature of these events has made safety difficult to assess, especially for new and innovative traffic treatments. Surrogate measures of safety have allowed to step away from traditional safety performance functions and analyze safety performance without relying on accident records. In recent years, the use of extreme value theory (EV) models in combination with surrogate safety measures to estimate accident probabilities has gained popularity within the safety community. In this paper we extend existing efforts on EV for accident probability estimation for two dependent surrogate measures. Using detailed trajectory data from a driving simulator, we model the joint probability of head-on and rear-end collisions in passing maneuvers. In our estimation we account for driver specific characteristics and road infrastructure variables. We show that accounting for these factors improve the head-on collision probability estimation. This work highlights the importance of considering driver and road heterogeneity in evaluating related safety events, of relevance to interventions both for in-vehicle and infrastructure-based solutions. Such features are essential to keep up with the expectations from surrogate safety measures for the integrated analysis of accident phenomena.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Probabilistic Safety Analysis using Traffic Microscopic Simulation

Traffic microscopic simulation applications are a common tool in road transportation analysis and several attempts to perform road safety assessments have recently been carried out. However, these approaches often ignore causal relationships between different levels of vehicle interactions and/or accident types and they lack a physical representation of the accident phenomena itself. In this paper, a new generic probabilistic safety assessment framework for traffic microscopic simulation tools is proposed. The probability of a specific accident occurring is estimated by an accident propensity function that consists of a deterministic safety score component and a random component. The formulation of the safety score depends on the type of occurrence, on detailed vehicle interactions and maneuvers and on its representation in a simulation environment. This generic model is applied to the case of an urban motorway and specified to four types of outcomes: non-accident events and three types of accidents in a nested structure: rear-end, lane-changing, and run-off-road accidents. The model was estimated and validated using simulated microscopic data. To obtained the consistent simulated data, a two-step simulation calibration procedure was adopted: (1) using real trajectories collected on site for detailed behavior representation; and (2) using aggregate data from each event used in safety model estimation. The final estimated safety model is able to identify and interpret several simulated vehicle interactions. The fact that these outcomes were extracted from simulated analysis shows the real potential of calibrated traffic microscopic simulation for detailed safety assessments.

cs.CE↗