arXiv subjects

Caterina Scoglio

Publications and source records attributed to Caterina Scoglio.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering Estimation of Ebola Progression in West Africa

We use a multivariate formulation of sequential Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola virus propagation and available incidence data to simultaneously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters. This method has the advantage of performing the inference online as the new data becomes available and estimates the evolution of basic reproductive ratio $R_0(t)$ of the Ebola outbreak through time. Our analysis identifies a peak in the basic reproductive ratio close to the time when Ebola cases were reported in Europe and the USA.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Numerical Investigation of Metrics for Epidemic Processes on Graphs

This study develops the epidemic hitting time (EHT) metric on graphs measuring the expected time an epidemic starting at node $a$ in a fully susceptible network takes to propagate and reach node $b$. An associated EHT centrality measure is then compared to degree, betweenness, spectral, and effective resistance centrality measures through exhaustive numerical simulations on several real-world network data-sets. We find two surprising observations: first, EHT centrality is highly correlated with effective resistance centrality; second, the EHT centrality measure is much more delocalized compared to degree and spectral centrality, highlighting the role of peripheral nodes in epidemic spreading on graphs.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Maximizing Algebraic Connectivity in Interconnected Networks

Algebraic connectivity, the second eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, is a measure of node and link connectivity on networks. When studying interconnected networks it is useful to consider a multiplex model, where the component networks operate together with inter-layer links among them. In order to have a well-connected multilayer structure, it is necessary to optimally design these inter-layer links considering realistic constraints. In this work, we solve the problem of finding an optimal weight distribution for one-to-one inter-layer links under budget constraint. We show that for the special multiplex configurations with identical layers, the uniform weight distribution is always optimal. On the other hand, when the two layers are arbitrary, increasing the budget reveals the existence of two different regimes. Up to a certain threshold budget, the second eigenvalue of the supra-Laplacian is simple, the optimal weight distribution is uniform, and the Fiedler vector is constant on each layer. Increasing the budget past the threshold, the optimal weight distribution can be non-uniform. The interesting consequence of this result is that there is no need to solve the optimization problem when the available budget is less than the threshold, which can be easily found analytically.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Epidemic Threshold of an SIS Model in Dynamic Switching Networks

In this paper, we analyze dynamic switching networks, wherein the networks switch arbitrarily among a set of topologies. For this class of dynamic networks, we derive an epidemic threshold, considering the SIS epidemic model. First, an epidemic probabilistic model is developed assuming independence between states of nodes. We identify the conditions under which the epidemic dies out by linearizing the underlying dynamical system and analyzing its asymptotic stability around the origin. The concept of joint spectral radius is then used to derive the epidemic threshold, which is later validated using several networks (Watts-Strogatz, Barabasi-Albert, MIT reality mining graphs, Regular, and Gilbert). A simplified version of the epidemic threshold is proposed for undirected networks. Moreover, in the case of static networks, the derived epidemic threshold is shown to match conventional analytical results. Then, analytical results for the epidemic threshold of dynamic networksare proved to be applicable to periodic networks. For dynamic regular networks, we demonstrate that the epidemic threshold is identical to the epidemic threshold for static regular networks. An upper bound for the epidemic spread probability in dynamic Gilbert networks is also derived and verified using simulation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Exact Coupling Threshold for Structural Transition in Interconnected Networks

Interconnected networks are mathematical representation of systems where two or more simple networks are coupled to each other. Depending on the coupling weight between the two components, the interconnected network can function in two regimes: one where the two networks are structurally distinguishable, and one where they are not. The coupling threshold--denoting this structural transition--is one of the most crucial concepts in interconnected networks. Yet, current information about the coupling threshold is limited. This letter presents an analytical expression for the exact value of the coupling threshold and outlines network interrelation implications.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

An estimation of cattle movement parameters in the Central States of the US

The characterization of cattle demographics and especially movements is an essential component in the modeling of dynamics in cattle systems, yet for cattle systems of the United States (US), this is missing. Through a large-scale maximum entropy optimization formulation, we estimate cattle movement parameters to characterize the movements of cattle across $10$ Central States and $1034$ counties of the United States. Inputs to the estimation problem are taken from the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service database and are pre-processed in a pair of tightly constrained optimization problems to recover non-disclosed elements of data. We compare stochastic subpopulation-based movements generated from the estimated parameters to operation-based movements published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For future Census of Agriculture distributions, we propose a series of questions that enable improvements for our method without compromising the privacy of cattle operations. Our novel method to estimate cattle movements across large US regions characterizes county-level stratified subpopulations of cattle for data-driven livestock modeling. Our estimated movement parameters suggest a significant risk level for US cattle systems.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2014

Robustness surfaces of complex networks

Despite the robustness of complex networks has been extensively studied in the last decade, there still lacks a unifying framework able to embrace all the proposed metrics. In the literature there are two open issues related to this gap: (a) how to dimension several metrics to allow their summation and (b) how to weight each of the metrics. In this work we propose a solution for the two aforementioned problems by defining the $R^*$-value and introducing the concept of \emph{robustness surface} ($Ω$). The rationale of our proposal is to make use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We firstly adjust to 1 the initial robustness of a network. Secondly, we find the most informative robustness metric under a specific failure scenario. Then, we repeat the process for several percentage of failures and different realizations of the failure process. Lastly, we join these values to form the robustness surface, which allows the visual assessment of network robustness variability. Results show that a network presents different robustness surfaces (i.e., dissimilar shapes) depending on the failure scenario and the set of metrics. In addition, the robustness surface allows the robustness of different networks to be compared.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Epidemic and Cascading Survivability of Complex Networks

Our society nowadays is governed by complex networks, examples being the power grids, telecommunication networks, biological networks, and social networks. It has become of paramount importance to understand and characterize the dynamic events (e.g. failures) that might happen in these complex networks. For this reason, in this paper, we propose two measures to evaluate the vulnerability of complex networks in two different dynamic multiple failure scenarios: epidemic-like and cascading failures. Firstly, we present \emph{epidemic survivability} ($ES$), a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Secondly, we propose \emph{cascading survivability} ($CS$), which characterizes how potentially injurious a node is according to a cascading failure scenario. Then, we show that by using the distribution of values obtained from $ES$ and $CS$ it is possible to describe the vulnerability of a given network. We consider a set of 17 different complex networks to illustrate the suitability of our proposals. Lastly, results reveal that distinct types of complex networks might react differently under the same multiple failure scenario.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Unveiling Potential Failure Propagation Scenarios in Core Transport Networks

The contemporary society has become more dependent on telecommunication networks. Novel services and technologies supported by such networks, such as cloud computing or e-Health, hold a vital role in modern day living. Large-scale failures are prone to occur, thus being a constant threat to business organizations and individuals. To the best of our knowledge, there are no publicly available reports regarding failure propagation in core transport networks. Furthermore, Software Defined Networking (SDN) is becoming more prevalent in our society and we can envision more SDN-controlled Backbone Transport Networks (BTNs) in the future. For this reason, we investigate the main motivations that could lead to epidemic-like failures in BTNs and SDNTNs. To do so, we enlist the expertise of several research groups with significant background in epidemics, network resiliency, and security. In addition, we consider the experiences of three network providers. Our results illustrate that Dynamic Transport Networks (DTNs) are prone to epidemic-like failures. Moreover, we propose different situations in which a failure can propagate in SDNTNs. We believe that the key findings will aid network engineers and the scientific community to predict this type of disastrous failure scenario and plan adequate survivability strategies.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2013

May the Best Meme Win!: New Exploration of Competitive Epidemic Spreading over Arbitrary Multi-Layer Networks

This study extends the SIS epidemic model for single virus propagation over an arbitrary graph to an SI1SI2S epidemic model of two exclusive, competitive viruses over a two-layer network with generic structure, where network layers represent the distinct transmission routes of the viruses. We find analytical results determining extinction, mutual exclusion, and coexistence of the viruses by introducing the concepts of survival threshold and winning threshold. Furthermore, we show the possibility of coexistence in SIS-type competitive spreading over multilayer networks. Not only do we rigorously prove a region of coexistence, we quantitate it via interrelation of central nodes across the network layers. Little to no overlapping of layers central nodes is the key determinant of coexistence. Specifically, we show coexistence is impossible if network layers are identical yet possible if the network layers have distinct dominant eigenvectors and node degree vectors. For example, we show both analytically and numerically that positive correlation of network layers makes it difficult for a virus to survive while in a network with negatively correlated layers survival is easier but total removal of the other virus is more difficult. We believe our methodology has great potentials for application to broader classes of multi-pathogen spreading over multi-layer and interconnected networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

A Convex Framework for Optimal Investment on Disease Awareness in Social Networks

We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary network of contacts by investing on disease awareness throughout the network. We model the effect of agent awareness on the dynamics of an epidemic using the SAIS epidemic model, an extension of the SIS epidemic model that includes a state of "awareness". This model allows to derive a condition to control the spread of an epidemic outbreak in terms of the eigenvalues of a matrix that depends on the network structure and the parameters of the model. We study the problem of finding the cost-optimal investment on disease awareness throughout the network when the cost function presents some realistic properties. We propose a convex framework to find cost-optimal allocation of resources. We validate our results with numerical simulations in a real online social network.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

The network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases

The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between the basic reproduction numbers of two network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem of proving their existences in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the reproduction number is not monotonically increasing or decreasing with the extinction threshold. Key parameters in predicting uncertainty of extinction thresholds are identified using Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

Cascade Failures from Distributed Generation in Power Grids

Power grids are nowadays experiencing a transformation due to the introduction of Distributed Generation based on Renewable Sources. At difference with classical Distributed Generation, where local power sources mitigate anomalous user consumption peaks, Renewable Sources introduce in the grid intrinsically erratic power inputs. By introducing a simple schematic (but realistic) model for power grids with stochastic distributed generation, we study the effects of erratic sources on the robustness of several IEEE power grid test networks with up to 2000 buses. We find that increasing the penetration of erratic sources causes the grid to fail with a sharp transition. We compare such results with the case of failures caused by the natural increasing power demand.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

A hierarchical network approach for modeling Rift Valley fever epidemics with applications in North America

Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne zoonotic disease which causes high morbidity and mortality in livestock. In the event Rift Valley fever virus is introduced to the United States or other non-endemic areas, understanding the potential patterns of spread and the areas at risk based on disease vectors and hosts will be vital for developing mitigation strategies. Presented here is a general network-based mathematical model of Rift Valley fever. Given a lack of empirical data on disease vector species and their vector competence, this discrete time epidemic model uses stochastic parameters following several PERT distributions to model the dynamic interactions between hosts and likely North American mosquito vectors in dispersed geographic areas. Spatial effects and climate factors are also addressed in the model. The model is applied to a large directed asymmetric network of 3,621 nodes based on actual farms to examine a hypothetical introduction to some counties of Texas, an important ranching area in the United States of America (U.S.A.). The nodes of the networks represent livestock farms, livestock markets, and feedlots, and the links represent cattle movements and mosquito diffusion between different nodes. Cattle and mosquito (Aedes and Culex) populations are treated with different contact networks to assess virus propagation. Rift Valley fever virus spread is assessed under various initial infection conditions (infected mosquito eggs, adults or cattle). A surprising trend is fewer initial infectious organisms result in a longer delay before a larger and more prolonged outbreak. The delay is likely caused by a lack of herd immunity while the infections expands geographically before becoming an epidemic involving many dispersed farms and animals almost simultaneously.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

The network level reproduction number for infectious diseases with both vertical and horizontal transmission

A wide range of infectious diseases are both vertically and horizontally transmitted. Such diseases are spatially transmitted via multiple species in heterogeneous environments, typically described by complex meta-population models. The reproduction number is a critical metric predicting whether the disease can invade the meta-population system. This paper presents the reproduction number for a generic disease vertically and horizontally transmitted among multiple species in heterogeneous networks, where nodes are locations, and links reflect outgoing or incoming movement flows. The metapopulation model for vertically and horizontally transmitted diseases is gradually formulated from two species, two-node network models. We derived an explicit expression of the reproduction number, which is the spectral radius of a matrix reduced in size with respect to the original next generation matrix. The reproduction number is shown to be a function of vertical and horizontal transmission parameters, and the lower bound is the reproduction number for horizontal transmission. As an application, the reproduction number and its bounds for the Rift Valley fever zoonosis, where livestock, mosquitoes, and humans are the involved species are derived. By computing the reproduction number for different scenarios through numerical simulations, we found the reproduction number is affected by livestock movement rates only when parameters are heterogeneous across nodes. To summarize, our study contributes the reproduction number for vertically and horizontally transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. This explicit expression is easily adaptable to specific infectious diseases, affording insights into disease evolution.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2012

Topological Analysis and Mitigation Strategies for Cascading Failures in Power Grid Networks

Recently, there has been a growing concern about the overload status of the power grid networks, and the increasing possibility of cascading failures. Many researchers have studied these networks to provide design guidelines for more robust power grids. Topological analysis is one of the components of system analysis for its robustness. This paper presents a complex systems analysis of power grid networks. First, the cascading effect has been simulated on three well known networks: the IEEE 300 bus test system, the IEEE 118 bus test system, and the WSCC 179 bus equivalent model. To extend the analysis to a larger set of networks, we develop a network generator and generate multiple graphs with characteristics similar to the IEEE test networks but with different topologies. The generated graphs are then compared to the test networks to show the effect of topology in determining their robustness with respect to cascading failures. The generated graphs turn out to be more robust than the test graphs, showing the importance of topology in the robust design of power grids. The second part of this paper concerns the discussion of two novel mitigation strategies for cascading failures: Targeted Load Reduction and Islanding using Distributed Sources. These new mitigation strategies are compared with the Homogeneous Load Reduction strategy. Even though the Homogeneous Load Reduction is simpler to implement, the Targeted Load Reduction is much more effective. Additionally, an algorithm is presented for the partitioning of the network for islanding as an effort towards fault isolation to prevent cascading failures. The results for island formation are better if the sources are well distributed, else the algorithm leads to the formation of superislands.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Effect of Coupling on the Epidemic Threshold in Interconnected Complex Networks: A Spectral Analysis

In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads through the population and persists in the long run. For a single generic graph representing the contact network of the population under consideration, the epidemic threshold turns out to be equal to the inverse of the spectral radius of the contact graph. However, in a real world scenario it is not possible to isolate a population completely: there is always some interconnection with another network, which partially overlaps with the contact network. Results for epidemic threshold in interconnected networks are limited to homogeneous mixing populations and degree distribution arguments. In this paper, we adopt a spectral approach. We show how the epidemic threshold in a given network changes as a result of being coupled with another network with fixed infection strength. In our model, the contact network and the interconnections are generic. Using bifurcation theory and algebraic graph theory, we rigorously derive the epidemic threshold in interconnected networks. These results have implications for the broad field of epidemic modeling and control. Our analytical results are supported by numerical simulations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

A Network-Based Meta-Population Approach to Model Rift Valley Fever Epidemics

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human health. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations. Finally, the exact value of the reproduction number is numerically computed and upper and lower bounds for the reproduction number are analytically derived in the case of homogeneous populations.

q-bio.OT↗