arXiv subjects

Caterina Scoglio

Publications and source records attributed to Caterina Scoglio.

43 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2011

Epidemic Spread in Human Networks

One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model has been widely used. In the SIS model, each node can be susceptible, become infected with a given infection rate, and become again susceptible with a given curing rate. In this paper, we add a new compartment to the classic SIS model to account for human response to epidemic spread. Each individual can be infected, susceptible, or alert. Susceptible individuals can become alert with an alerting rate if infected individuals exist in their neighborhood. An individual in the alert state is less probable to become infected than an individual in the susceptible state; due to a newly adopted cautious behavior. The problem is formulated as a continuous-time Markov process on a general static graph and then modeled into a set of ordinary differential equations using mean field approximation method and the corresponding Kolmogorov forward equations. The model is then studied using results from algebraic graph theory and center manifold theorem. We analytically show that our model exhibits two distinct thresholds in the dynamics of epidemic spread. Below the first threshold, infection dies out exponentially. Beyond the second threshold, infection persists in the steady state. Between the two thresholds, the infection spreads at the first stage but then dies out asymptotically as the result of increased alertness in the network. Finally, simulations are provided to support our findings. Our results suggest that alertness can be considered as a strategy of controlling the epidemics which propose multiple potential areas of applications, from infectious diseases mitigations to malware impact reduction.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Topological analysis of the power grid and mitigation strategies against cascading failures

This paper presents a complex systems overview of a power grid network. In recent years, concerns about the robustness of the power grid have grown because of several cascading outages in different parts of the world. In this paper, cascading effect has been simulated on three different networks, the IEEE 300 bus test system, the IEEE 118 bus test system, and the WSCC 179 bus equivalent model, using the DC Power Flow Model. Power Degradation has been discussed as a measure to estimate the damage to the network, in terms of load loss and node loss. A network generator has been developed to generate graphs with characteristics similar to the IEEE standard networks and the generated graphs are then compared with the standard networks to show the effect of topology in determining the robustness of a power grid. Three mitigation strategies, Homogeneous Load Reduction, Targeted Range-Based Load Reduction, and Use of Distributed Renewable Sources in combination with Islanding, have been suggested. The Homogeneous Load Reduction is the simplest to implement but the Targeted Range-Based Load Reduction is the most effective strategy.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2010

Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in rural regions

Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and results of general studies cannot be directly applied since population densities and human mobility factors are very different in rural regions from those in cities. We create a network model of a rural community in Kansas, USA, by collecting data on the contact patterns and computing rates of contact among a sampled population. We model the impact of different mitigation strategies detecting closely connected groups of people and frequently visited locations. Within those groups and locations, we compare the effectiveness of random and targeted vaccinations using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model on the contact network. Our simulations show that the targeted vaccinations of only 10% of the sampled population reduced the size of the epidemic by 34.5%. Additionally, if 10% of the population visiting one of the most popular locations is randomly vaccinated, the epidemic size is reduced by 19%. Our results suggest a new implementation of a highly effective strategy for targeted vaccinations through the use of popular locations in rural communities.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Generalized individual-based epidemic model for vulnerability assessment of correlated scale-free complex networks

Many complex networks exhibit vulnerability to spreading of epidemics, and such vulnerability relates to the viral strain as well as to the network characteristics. For instance, the structure of the network plays an important role in spreading of epidemics. Additionally, properties of previous epidemic models require prior knowledge of the complex network structure, which means the models are limited to only well-known network structures. In this paper, we propose a new epidemiological SIR model based on the continuous time Markov chain, which is generalized to any type of network. The new model is capable of evaluating the states of every individual in the network. Through mathematical analysis, we prove an epidemic threshold exists below which an epidemic does not propagate in the network. We also show that the new epidemic threshold is inversely proportional to the spectral radius of the network. In particular, we employ the new epidemic model as a novel measure to assess the vulnerability of networks to the spread of epidemics. The new measure considers all possible effective infection rates that an epidemic might possess. Next, we apply the measure to correlated networks to evaluate the vulnerability of disassortative and assortative scalefree networks. Ultimately, we verify the accuracy of the theoretical epidemic threshold through extensive numerical simulations. Within the set of tested networks, the numerical results show that disassortative scale-free networks are more vulnerable to spreading of epidemics than assortative scale-free networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2009

Characterizing the Robustness of Complex Networks

With increasingly ambitious initiatives such as GENI and FIND that seek to design the future Internet, it becomes imperative to define the characteristics of robust topologies, and build future networks optimized for robustness. This paper investigates the characteristics of network topologies that maintain a high level of throughput in spite of multiple attacks. To this end, we select network topologies belonging to the main network models and some real world networks. We consider three types of attacks: removal of random nodes, high degree nodes, and high betweenness nodes. We use elasticity as our robustness measure and, through our analysis, illustrate that different topologies can have different degrees of robustness. In particular, elasticity can fall as low as 0.8% of the upper bound based on the attack employed. This result substantiates the need for optimized network topology design. Furthermore, we implement a tradeoff function that combines elasticity under the three attack strategies and considers the cost of the network. Our extensive simulations show that, for a given network density, regular and semi-regular topologies can have higher degrees of robustness than heterogeneous topologies, and that link redundancy is a sufficient but not necessary condition for robustness.

cs.NI↗

arXiv2008

A new metric for robustness with respect to virus spread

The robustness of a network is depending on the type of attack we are considering. In this paper we focus on the spread of viruses on networks. It is common practice to use the epidemic threshold as a measure for robustness. Because the epidemic threshold is inversely proportional to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix, it seems easy to compare the robustness of two networks. We will show in this paper that the comparison of the robustness with respect to virus spread for two networks actually depends on the value of the effective spreading rate tau. For this reason we propose a new metric, the viral conductance, which takes into account the complete range of values tau can obtain. In this paper we determine the viral conductance of regular graphs, complete bi-partite graphs and a number of realistic networks.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2008

ELASTICITY: Topological Characterization of Robustness in Complex Networks

Just as a herd of animals relies on its robust social structure to survive in the wild, similarly robustness is a crucial characteristic for the survival of a complex network under attack. The capacity to measure robustness in complex networks defines the resolve of a network to maintain functionality in the advent of classical component failures and at the onset of cryptic malicious attacks. To date, robustness metrics are deficient and unfortunately the following dilemmas exist: accurate models necessitate complex analysis while conversely, simple models lack applicability to our definition of robustness. In this paper, we define robustness and present a novel metric, elasticity- a bridge between accuracy and complexity-a link in the chain of network robustness. Additionally, we explore the performance of elasticity on Internet topologies and online social networks, and articulate results.

cs.NI↗