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Chan Park

Publications and source records attributed to Chan Park.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Sliced $L^p$ Distributional Balancing

A popular class of causal inference methods addresses confounding through weighting, which reweights treated and control groups to balance their covariate distributions without using outcome information, thereby preserving a design-based perspective. In this paper, we propose sliced $L^p$ distributional balancing (SLDB), a family indexed by $p\in[1,\infty)$ that measures imbalance by averaging squared $L^p$ distances between the cumulative distribution functions of one-dimensional linear projections. The Cram\'er--Wold device ensures that this criterion identifies equality of multivariate distributions, while projection reduces its computation to sorting-based one-dimensional operations. Because our method lies outside the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) framework underlying many existing distributional balancing methods, their theoretical and computational tools do not directly apply. We therefore develop a computationally efficient projected subgradient descent algorithm for estimating balancing weights, offering improved computational complexity over MMD-based methods. Furthermore, we establish a novel theoretical framework for SLDB-based causal effect estimation and prove, under suitable conditions, $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality, with the asymptotic variance attaining the semiparametric efficiency bound. Finally, we develop inferential procedures that do not require augmentation with an outcome model, thereby retaining the design-based principle. Simulation studies and a real-world application demonstrate that SLDB performs competitively with existing methods.

stat.ME

3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope Mission White Paper IV. Key Scientific Mission: Solar-System Small Bodies and Planetary Defense

The baseline 0.2--1.5 $\mu$m observatory provides rapid-response astrometry, visible and near-infrared taxonomy, rotation and phase curves, recovery, and long-arc orbit improvement for near-Earth objects and other small bodies. The instrument study also evaluates calibrated throughput to 2.70 $\mu$m with a 3.0 $\mu$m operational band-edge goal. A reduction to 2.5 $\mu$m remains the formal engineering off-ramp if thermal, detector, cooling, mass, power, or cost constraints require it. The 3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope does not carry a mid-infrared channel. Coordinated ground-based mid-infrared telescopes provide the thermal fluxes required to infer diameter and albedo, while the space mission supplies contemporaneous reflected-light measurements and observing geometry. The program combines recovery, physical characterization, orbit refinement, and covariance-based hazard assessment. Its CODES dynamics system and OGFinder-to-OpenOrb processing path connect measured astrometry to reproducible orbit solutions and close-approach predictions.

astro-ph.IM

3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope Mission White Paper V. Key Scientific Mission: Compact-Object Time-Domain Science

An isolated compact object retains the point-source resolving power of the space-based slitless spectrograph. The baseline wavelength range is 0.2--1.5 $\mu$m. The planning baseline uses $R \simeq 1000$ for broad and faint transient spectra and reserves selectable bands at $R \simeq 5000$ for accretion-disk profiles, velocity structure, and precision line ratios. Broad features can be measured after binning the native $R \simeq 5000$ data to lower resolution. Rapid-response spectroscopy follows gravitational-wave counterparts and kilonovae from hours to days. Repeated spectra of dwarf novae and compact binaries trace accretion state and orbital phase, while uninterrupted imaging of white dwarfs measures pulsation frequencies. The program combines mission-based monitoring with external alerts, including KGMT transient detections. The instrument study must preserve calibrated throughput to 2.70 $\mu$m and evaluate a 3.0 $\mu$m operational band edge, with 2.5 $\mu$m retained as the formal engineering off-ramp. Mid-infrared imaging is not part of the adopted compact-object baseline.

astro-ph.IM

3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope Mission White Paper I. Overall Architecture and Scientific Mission

A 3.5-meter segmented-mirror robotic space telescope is under study as a space-based observatory for precision astrophysical observations and rapid-response transient astronomy in the 0.2-1.5 micron wavelength range. The telescope adopts a Cassegrain optical configuration optimized to deliver diffraction-limited performance across a wide, flat focal plane, achieving a Strehl ratio greater than 0.8 at 633 nm. The proposed scientific payload includes a Wide-field Camera (WC), a spectroscopic instrument, and an optional Exoplanet Imaging Coronagraph. The Wide-field Camera (WC) provides multi-wavelength imaging and high-cadence time-series photometry over a field of view ranging from 10'X10' to 30'X30'. The spectroscopic configuration and resolving power remain under study to accommodate the requirements of the principal science programs. An optional Exoplanet Imaging Coronagraph is being investigated for high-contrast imaging of nearby planetary systems, with performance goals extending toward raw contrasts of approximately 10^(-8) and improved post-processed performance. Candidate orbital configurations, including Earth orbit and the Sun-Earth L2 region, are currently being evaluated. Planned investigations include gravitational-wave counterparts, rapidly evolving transients, Type Ia supernova cosmology, direct imaging of exoplanets, and exoplanet atmospheric spectroscopy. Although driven by these core scientific objectives, the observatory is conceived as a general-purpose facility providing open-access observing time to the international scientific community. This paper presents the preliminary architecture, performance goals, and scientific mission of the proposed 3.5-meter space telescope.

astro-ph.IM

3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope Mission White Paper II. Key Scientific Mission: Wide-Field Cosmology and Galaxy Evolution

The 3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope uses an image slicer for all spectroscopic observations. The planning baseline uses $R \simeq 1000$ for the wide survey and retains selectable $R \simeq 5000$ bands for precision line measurements. The central science case is a dense emission-line galaxy redshift survey for baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions. Supernova and quasar programs exploit the stability, multiplexing, and repeatability of space operations. The supernova tier measures rest-frame U and near-ultraviolet magnitudes that separate optical twins at subgroup precision to $z \simeq 0.9$--$1.1$ in standard visits and to $z \simeq 1.3$--$1.5$ in ten-hour stacks. Every wide-survey tile receives three spectroscopic orientations, and a joint scene reconstruction uses their different overlap geometries to recover the spectra. The flagship survey covers 100--300 deg$^2$ and targets $10^6$--$3 \times 10^6$ emission-line galaxies. A deep pencil-beam tier and a supernova time-domain tier complement the wide survey. The same observations provide a census of ultra-diffuse and low-surface-brightness galaxies, map intracluster light, and test cold, self-interacting, and fuzzy dark matter through dwarf-galaxy structure and low-mass halo abundance.

astro-ph.IM

3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope Mission White Paper III. Key Scientific Mission: Exoplanet Science with a Coronagraph

This volume defines the exoplanet science program enabled by the dedicated high-contrast coronagraph in the baseline science payload of the 3.5-meter Segmented-Mirror Robotic Space Telescope. The observatory architecture incorporates the optical interfaces, wavefront sensing and control, pointing stability, and operations software required for coronagraphic observations from the outset. The observing strategy gives priority to the nearest stellar systems because they provide the most accessible laboratories for planetary exploration and the most likely destinations of future interstellar missions. The diffraction limit sets a reflected-light horizon of roughly 10--15 pc for planets at 1 AU and roughly 50--80 pc for Jupiter analogs. Within those horizons, the telescope can image nearby giant planets, obtain reflected-light spectra of their atmospheres, survey young systems and circumstellar disks, and support the habitability and biosignature programs that larger future missions will pursue. The wide-field imager complements the coronagraph through transit photometry, occurrence-rate statistics, and long-term monitoring of stellar magnetic activity. A systematic census of the nearest stellar neighbors provides a lasting reference for exoplanet science and future space exploration.

astro-ph.IM

The Roasting Marshmallows Program with IGRINS on Gemini South V: Atmosphere of MASCARA-1b is Enriched in Refractory Elements

Ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs; $T_{\rm eq} \gtrsim 2000$ K) enable simultaneous detection of volatile (ice-forming) and refractory (rock-forming) species in planetary atmospheres, providing a powerful diagnostic of planet formation and atmospheric processing. We present a comprehensive high-resolution cross-correlation spectroscopy (HRCCS) analysis of the UHJ MASCARA-1b ($T_{\rm eq} \approx 2600$ K) using the IGRINS and IGRINS-2 spectrographs. We detect robust (SNR$>$4) signals from H$_2$O, CO, OH, Fe I, Mg I, Ca I, and Ti I, marking the most complete atmospheric inventory of MASCARA-1b to date. Using a chemically consistent atmospheric inference framework, we constrain elemental abundances to a typical precision of $\approx$0.2 dex, retrieving a solar atmospheric metallicity ([M/H]$_\odot$ $= 0.07^{+0.17}_{-0.13}$ $\approx 1.2\times$ solar), a C/O ratio (C/O $= 0.65^{+0.08}_{-0.08}$) consistent with solar value (C/O $=$ 0.59), an enhanced refractory abundance ([R/H]$_\odot$ $= 0.40^{+0.23}_{-0.17} \approx 2.5\times$ solar; $\approx 3.8\times$ stellar), and a moderately super-solar refractory-to-volatile ratio ([R/V]$_\odot$ $= 0.36^{+0.11}_{-0.09}$ $\approx 2.3\times$ solar). Comparison with formation models suggests that MASCARA-1b most likely accreted material between the soot-H$_2$O or H$_2$O-CO snowlines (at 68$\%$ confidence). We additionally find stellar values for atmospheric Ti/Mg and Ca/Mg ratios (at 68$\%$ confidence). The Mg/Fe is also found to be consistent with stellar value at 95$\%$ confidence. Therefore, we do not find strong indication of nightside cold trapping in MASCARA-1b. As homogeneous refractory-to-volatile measurements expand across the UHJ population, particularly with upcoming Extremely Large Telescopes, these diagnostics will enable statistically robust tests of emerging trends in giant planet formation and atmospheric evolution.

astro-ph.EP

Separable Effects in Four-Arm and Two-Arm Designs

Robins and Richardson (2010) reformulated mediation analysis by decomposing treatments into multiple components and examining separable effects of each component. While this approach is increasingly popular, existing work has analyzed ``two-arm'' data, where components are strictly bundled and manipulated simultaneously. However, in practice, four-arm data where components are assigned independently are often available. For example, testing accommodations might strictly bundle extra time with a separate session or allow them to be assigned separately. To address this distinction, we propose a general framework for analyzing separable effects in four-arm and two-arm designs. This framework provides distinct identification and estimation strategies for each design. For estimation, we utilize efficient influence function estimators coupled with machine learning and cross-fitting techniques. Additionally, we introduce two falsification tests for key identification assumptions required in the two-arm design by leveraging four-arm data. We investigate the performance of the proposed estimators via a simulation study and demonstrate their application by studying the effect of extended time accommodations using data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Ultimately, this separable effects analysis enables practitioners to clearly communicate underlying mechanisms and derive informative policy recommendations.

stat.ME

The Multiplicative Quasi-Instrumental Variable Model

We introduce the Multiplicative Quasi-Instrumental Variable (MQIV) model, a framework for causal inference with unmeasured confounding that leverages an instrument that may be imperfectly exogenous. We allow the candidate quasi-instrument to have a direct effect on the outcome not mediated by the treatment, thus violating the standard IV exclusion restriction. We establish nonparametric identification of the population average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) under a treatment model that is multiplicative with respect to the quasi-IV and the hidden confounder (Hernan and Robins, 2006). Such a multiplicative treatment model may arise naturally either when treatment occurs only if two independent instrument-driven and confounder-driven causal mechanisms are present; or alternatively, when an instrument's effect on treatment uptake is inherently heterogeneous and scales with a person's latent propensity, best capturing settings in which it is challenging for a given instrument to overcome a person's inherent lack of preference for the treatment in view. Importantly, as we establish, the MQIV model is simultaneously agnostic to treatment-effect heterogeneity with respect to hidden confounders and violation of the core IV exclusion restriction condition. Identification is achieved via a modified Wald ratio estimand, which corrects the bias due to the exclusion restriction violation, and we propose a new class of estimators that are multiply robust and semiparametric efficient. Finally, we evaluate the approach in extensive simulations and an application to evaluate the causal effect of having three or more children on mothers' labor-market engagement.

stat.ME

Extension of coupling via the Projection of Optimal Transport

In many statistical settings, two types of data are available: coupled data, which preserve the joint structure among variables but are limited in size due to cost or privacy constraints, and marginal data, which are available at larger scales but lack joint structure. Since standard methods require coupled data, marginal information is often discarded. We propose a fully nonparametric procedure that integrates decoupled marginal data with a limited amount of coupled data to improve the downstream analysis. The approach can be understood as an extension of coupling via projection in optimal transport. Specifically, the estimator is a solution for the optimal transport projection over the space of probability measures, which genuinely provides a natural geometric interpretation. Not only is its stability established, but its sample complexity is also derived using recent advances in statistical optimal transport. In addition to this, we present its explicit formula based on ``shadow," a notion introduced by Eckstein and Nutz. Furthermore, the estimator can be approximated in almost linear time and in parallel by entropic shadow, which demonstrates the theoretical and practical strengths of our methods. Lastly, we present experiments with real and synthetic data to justify the performance of our method.

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SQUIDPOL: Seoul National University QUadruple Imaging Device for POLarimetry

We present SQUIDPOL, a low-cost, multi-channel optical imaging polarimeter that performs simultaneous linear polarization measurements using a rotating half-wave plate, a non-polarizing beam splitter, and four wire-grid filters. We show that the off-the-shelf non-polarizing beam splitter introduces measurable polarization-dependent systematics, which can bias polarimetric measurements if left uncorrected. We quantify this effect for both transmitted and reflected beams and incorporate a correction scheme into the data-analysis pipeline. On-sky validation demonstrates stable and reproducible performance, achieving a polarization accuracy of about 0.15 percent for bright polarized standard stars. Mounted on the 60-cm Ritchey-Chretien telescope (focal length 4200 mm, f/7) at the Pyeongchang Observatory of Seoul National University, SQUIDPOL provides an effective common field of view of 13.5 by 8.2 arcminutes with a pixel scale of 0.45 arcseconds per pixel and supports standard B, V, R_C, and I_C filters.

astro-ph.IM

Nonparametric Inference with an Instrumental Variable under a Separable Binary Treatment Choice Model

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which posits that the odds of the probability of taking the treatment, conditional on the instrument and the treatment-free potential outcome, factor into separable components for each variable. While nonparametric identification of smooth functionals of the treatment-free potential outcome among the treated, such as the average treatment effect on the treated, has been established under this model, corresponding nonparametric efficient estimation has proven elusive due to variationally dependent nuisance parameters defined in terms of counterfactual quantities. To address this challenge, we introduce a new variationally independent parameterization based on nuisance functions defined directly from the observed data. This parameterization, coupled with a novel fixed-point argument, enables the use of modern machine learning methods for nuisance function estimation. We characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound for any smooth functional of the treatment-free potential outcome among the treated and construct a corresponding semiparametric efficient estimator without imposing any unnecessary restriction on nuisance functions. Furthermore, we describe a straightforward generative model justifying our identifying assumptions and characterize empirically falsifiable implications of the framework to evaluate our assumptions in practical settings. Our approach seamlessly extends to nonlinear treatment effects, population-level effects, and nonignorable missing data settings. We illustrate our methods through simulation studies and an application to the Job Corps study.

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Distributional Balancing for Causal Inference: A Unified Framework via Characteristic Function Distance

Weighting methods are essential tools for estimating causal effects in observational studies, with the goal of balancing pre-treatment covariates across treatment groups. Traditional approaches pursue this objective indirectly, for example, via inverse propensity score weighting or by matching a finite number of covariate moments, and therefore do not guarantee balance of the full joint covariate distributions. Recently, distributional balancing methods have emerged as robust, nonparametric alternatives that directly target alignment of entire covariate distributions, but they lack a unified framework, formal theoretical guarantees, and valid inferential procedures. We introduce a unified framework for nonparametric distributional balancing based on the characteristic function distance (CFD) and show that widely used discrepancy measures, including the maximum mean discrepancy and energy distance, arise as special cases. Our theoretical analysis establishes conditions under which the resulting CFD-based weighting estimator achieves $\sqrt{n}$-consistency. Since the standard bootstrap may fail for this estimator, we propose subsampling as a valid alternative for inference. We further extend our approach to an instrumental variable setting to address potential unmeasured confounding. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our method through simulation studies and a real-world application, where the proposed estimator performs well and exhibits results consistent with our theoretical predictions.

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Spectrum Tuning: Post-Training for Distributional Coverage and In-Context Steerability

Language model post-training has enhanced instruction-following and performance on many downstream tasks, but also comes with an often-overlooked cost on tasks with many possible valid answers. On many tasks such as creative writing, synthetic data generation, or steering to diverse preferences, models must cover an entire distribution of outputs, rather than a single correct answer. We characterize three desiderata for conditional distributional modeling: in-context steerability, valid output space coverage, and distributional alignment, and document across three model families how current post-training can reduce these properties. In particular, we disambiguate between two kinds of in-context learning: ICL for eliciting existing underlying knowledge or capabilities, and in-context steerability, where a model must use in-context information to override its priors and steer to a novel data generating distribution. To better evaluate and improve these desiderata, we introduce Spectrum Suite, a large-scale resource compiled from >40 data sources and spanning >90 tasks requiring models to steer to and match diverse distributions ranging from varied human preferences to numerical distributions and more. We find that while current post-training techniques elicit underlying capabilities and knowledge, they hurt models' ability to flexibly steer in-context. To mitigate these issues, we propose Spectrum Tuning, a post-training method using Spectrum Suite to improve steerability and distributional coverage. We find that Spectrum Tuning often improves over pretrained and typical instruction-tuned models, enhancing steerability, spanning more of the output space, and improving distributional alignment on held-out datasets.

cs.CL

A Multiplicative Instrumental Variable Model for Data Missing Not-at-Random

Instrumental variable (IV) methods offer a valuable approach to account for outcome data missing not-at-random. A valid missing data instrument is a measured factor which (i) predicts the nonresponse process and (ii) is independent of the outcome in the underlying population. For point identification, all existing IV methods for missing data including the celebrated Heckman selection model, a priori restrict the extent of selection bias on the outcome scale, therefore potentially understating uncertainty due to missing data. In this work, we introduce an IV framework which allows the degree of selection bias on the outcome scale to remain completely unrestricted. The new approach instead relies for identification on (iii) a key multiplicative selection model, which posits that the instrument and any hidden common correlate of selection and the outcome, do not interact on the multiplicative scale. Interestingly, we establish that any regular statistical functional of the missing outcome is nonparametrically identified under (i)-(iii) via a single-arm Wald ratio estimand reminiscent of the standard Wald ratio estimand in causal inference. For estimation and inference, we characterize the influence function for any functional defined on a nonparametric model for the observed data, which we leverage to develop semiparametric multiply robust IV estimators. Several extensions of the methods are also considered, including the important practical setting of polytomous and continuous instruments. Simulation studies illustrate the favorable finite sample performance of proposed methods, which we further showcase in an HIV study nested within a household health survey study we conducted in Mochudi, Botswana, in which interviewer characteristics are used as instruments to correct for selection bias due to dependent nonresponse in the HIV component of the survey study.

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Inference on Nonlinear Counterfactual Functionals under a Multiplicative IV Model

Instrumental variable (IV) methods play a central role in causal inference, particularly in settings where treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. IV methods have been extensively developed in recent years and applied across diverse domains, from economics to epidemiology. In this work, we study the recently introduced multiplicative IV (MIV) model and demonstrate its utility for causal inference beyond the average treatment effect. In particular, we show that it enables identification and inference for a broad class of counterfactual functionals characterized by moment equations. This includes, for example, inference on quantile treatment effects. We develop methods for efficient and multiply robust estimation of such functionals, and provide inference procedures with asymptotic validity. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed procedure performs well even with moderate sample sizes.

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The Multiplicative Instrumental Variable Model

The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a homogeneity condition such as monotonicity or no unmeasured common effect modifier between the additive effect of the treatment on the outcome, and that of the IV on the treatment. In this work, we introduce the Multiplicative Instrumental Variable Model (MIV), which encodes a condition of no multiplicative interaction between the instrument and an unmeasured confounder in the treatment propensity score model. Thus, the MIV provides a novel formalization of the core IV independence condition interpreted as independent mechanisms of action, by which the instrument and hidden confounders influence treatment uptake, respectively. As we formally establish, MIV provides nonparametric identification of the population average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) via a single-arm version of the classical Wald ratio IV estimand, for which we propose a novel class of estimators that are multiply robust and semiparametric efficient. Finally, we illustrate the methods in extended simulations and an application on the causal impact of a job training program on subsequent earnings.

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Near-Infrared Spectroscopy with IGRINS-2 for Studying Multiple Stellar Populations in Globular Clusters

Recent advancements in near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy have opened new opportunities for studying multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs), particularly for newly discovered clusters in the inner Milky Way. While optical spectroscopy has traditionally played a primary role in detailed chemical abundance studies of GCs, the increasing discovery of GCs in highly reddened environments underscores the need for robust NIR spectroscopic methods. To evaluate the utility of high-resolution NIR spectroscopy for studying multiple stellar populations, we observed six stars in M5, a well-studied halo GC, using the recently commissioned IGRINS-2 spectrograph on the Gemini-North telescope. Our chemical abundance measurements in the NIR wavelength range show good agreement with those derived from high-resolution optical spectroscopy, with minor systematic offsets in elements such as Na and Mg. In addition, the measured chemical abundance ratios clearly reproduce the distinctive patterns of multiple stellar populations, including the Na-O anti-correlation. The ability of NIR spectroscopy to measure C, N, and O abundances with high precision further enhances its utility for studying chemical properties of stars and GCs. Our findings demonstrate that IGRINS-2 and similar instruments have significant potential to advance our understanding of GC formation, stellar chemical evolution, and the evolutionary history of the Milky Way.

astro-ph.GA