arXiv subjects

Chan Park

Publications and source records attributed to Chan Park.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Nonparametric Inference with an Instrumental Variable under a Separable Binary Treatment Choice Model

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which posits that the odds of the probability of taking the treatment, conditional on the instrument and the treatment-free potential outcome, factor into separable components for each variable. While nonparametric identification of smooth functionals of the treatment-free potential outcome among the treated, such as the average treatment effect on the treated, has been established under this model, corresponding nonparametric efficient estimation has proven elusive due to variationally dependent nuisance parameters defined in terms of counterfactual quantities. To address this challenge, we introduce a new variationally independent parameterization based on nuisance functions defined directly from the observed data. This parameterization, coupled with a novel fixed-point argument, enables the use of modern machine learning methods for nuisance function estimation. We characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound for any smooth functional of the treatment-free potential outcome among the treated and construct a corresponding semiparametric efficient estimator without imposing any unnecessary restriction on nuisance functions. Furthermore, we describe a straightforward generative model justifying our identifying assumptions and characterize empirically falsifiable implications of the framework to evaluate our assumptions in practical settings. Our approach seamlessly extends to nonlinear treatment effects, population-level effects, and nonignorable missing data settings. We illustrate our methods through simulation studies and an application to the Job Corps study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A Multiplicative Instrumental Variable Model for Data Missing Not-at-Random

Instrumental variable (IV) methods offer a valuable approach to account for outcome data missing not-at-random. A valid missing data instrument is a measured factor which (i) predicts the nonresponse process and (ii) is independent of the outcome in the underlying population. For point identification, all existing IV methods for missing data including the celebrated Heckman selection model, a priori restrict the extent of selection bias on the outcome scale, therefore potentially understating uncertainty due to missing data. In this work, we introduce an IV framework which allows the degree of selection bias on the outcome scale to remain completely unrestricted. The new approach instead relies for identification on (iii) a key multiplicative selection model, which posits that the instrument and any hidden common correlate of selection and the outcome, do not interact on the multiplicative scale. Interestingly, we establish that any regular statistical functional of the missing outcome is nonparametrically identified under (i)-(iii) via a single-arm Wald ratio estimand reminiscent of the standard Wald ratio estimand in causal inference. For estimation and inference, we characterize the influence function for any functional defined on a nonparametric model for the observed data, which we leverage to develop semiparametric multiply robust IV estimators. Several extensions of the methods are also considered, including the important practical setting of polytomous and continuous instruments. Simulation studies illustrate the favorable finite sample performance of proposed methods, which we further showcase in an HIV study nested within a household health survey study we conducted in Mochudi, Botswana, in which interviewer characteristics are used as instruments to correct for selection bias due to dependent nonresponse in the HIV component of the survey study.

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arXiv2025

Inference on Nonlinear Counterfactual Functionals under a Multiplicative IV Model

Instrumental variable (IV) methods play a central role in causal inference, particularly in settings where treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. IV methods have been extensively developed in recent years and applied across diverse domains, from economics to epidemiology. In this work, we study the recently introduced multiplicative IV (MIV) model and demonstrate its utility for causal inference beyond the average treatment effect. In particular, we show that it enables identification and inference for a broad class of counterfactual functionals characterized by moment equations. This includes, for example, inference on quantile treatment effects. We develop methods for efficient and multiply robust estimation of such functionals, and provide inference procedures with asymptotic validity. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed procedure performs well even with moderate sample sizes.

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arXiv2025

An Early Look at the Performance of IGRINS-2 at Gemini-North with Application to the ultrahot Jupiter, WASP-33 b

Ground-based high-resolution spectroscopy enables precise molecular detections and velocity-resolved atmospheric dynamics, offering a distinct advantage over low-resolution methods for exoplanetary atmospheric studies. IGRINS-2, the successor to IGRINS, features improved throughput and enhanced sensitivity to carbon monoxide by shifting its $\textit{K}$-band coverage by 36 nm to longer wavelengths. IGRINS is a near-infrared high-resolution spectrograph mounted at McDonald, Lowell, and Gemini-South observatories. Our order-drop test shows this added range improves the CO cross-correlation signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) by 2$-$3%, confirming a measurable but modest sensitivity gain. To evaluate its performance, we attempt to investigate the atmospheric characteristics of WASP-33 b. Observations were conducted on 2024 January 7 for a total of 2.43 hours; This includes 1.46 hours in the pre-eclipse phase to capture the planet's thermal emission spectrum. We successfully detect clear cross-correlation signals from molecular species in the dayside atmosphere of WASP-33 b with a combined SNR of 7.4. More specifically, we capture CO, H$_{2}$O, and OH with SNRs of 6.3, 4.7, and 4.2, respectively. These results are consistent with previous studies and demonstrate that IGRINS-2 is well-suited for detailed investigation of exoplanetary atmospheres. We anticipate that future observations with IGRINS-2 will further advance our understanding of exoplanetary atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy with IGRINS-2 for Studying Multiple Stellar Populations in Globular Clusters

Recent advancements in near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy have opened new opportunities for studying multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs), particularly for newly discovered clusters in the inner Milky Way. While optical spectroscopy has traditionally played a primary role in detailed chemical abundance studies of GCs, the increasing discovery of GCs in highly reddened environments underscores the need for robust NIR spectroscopic methods. To evaluate the utility of high-resolution NIR spectroscopy for studying multiple stellar populations, we observed six stars in M5, a well-studied halo GC, using the recently commissioned IGRINS-2 spectrograph on the Gemini-North telescope. Our chemical abundance measurements in the NIR wavelength range show good agreement with those derived from high-resolution optical spectroscopy, with minor systematic offsets in elements such as Na and Mg. In addition, the measured chemical abundance ratios clearly reproduce the distinctive patterns of multiple stellar populations, including the Na-O anti-correlation. The ability of NIR spectroscopy to measure C, N, and O abundances with high precision further enhances its utility for studying chemical properties of stars and GCs. Our findings demonstrate that IGRINS-2 and similar instruments have significant potential to advance our understanding of GC formation, stellar chemical evolution, and the evolutionary history of the Milky Way.

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arXiv2025

10 Years of Archival High-Resolution NIR Spectra: The Raw and Reduced IGRINS Spectral Archive (RRISA)

The Immersion GRating INfrared Spectrometer (IGRINS) is a compact, high-resolution (R~45,000) near-infrared spectrograph spanning 1.45 to 2.45 um in a single exposure. We introduce the Raw and Reduced IGRINS Spectral Archive (RRISA), which provides public data access for all non-proprietary IGRINS data taken at McDonald Observatory's Harlan J. Smith Telescope, the Lowell Discovery Telescope (formerly Discovery Channel Telescope), and Gemini South. RRISA provides access to raw files, reduced data products, and cross-matched IGRINS targets with the SIMBAD, 2MASS, Gaia DR3, APOGEE2 DR17, and PASTEL catalogs. We also introduce version 3 of the IGRINS data reduction pipeline, IGRINS PLP v3, which implements an improved cosmic ray correction, pattern noise removal, and a new flexure correction that reduces telluric residuals. RRISA and supporting information can be found at http://igrinscontact.github.io.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Single Proxy Synthetic Control

Synthetic control methods are widely used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in time-series settings. A common approach to estimate synthetic control weights is to regress the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome and covariates' time series measurements on those of untreated units via ordinary least squares. However, this approach can perform poorly if the pre-treatment fit is not near perfect, whether the weights are normalized or not. In this paper, we introduce a single proxy synthetic control approach, which views the outcomes of untreated units as proxies of the treatment-free potential outcome of the treated unit, a perspective we leverage to construct a valid synthetic control. Under this framework, we establish an alternative identification strategy and corresponding estimation methods for synthetic controls and the treatment effect on the treated unit. Notably, unlike existing proximal synthetic control methods, which require two types of proxies for identification, ours relies on a single type of proxy, thus facilitating its practical relevance. Additionally, we adapt a conformal inference approach to perform inference about the treatment effect, obviating the need for a large number of post-treatment observations. Lastly, our framework can accommodate time-varying covariates and nonlinear models. We demonstrate the proposed approach in a simulation study and a real-world application.

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arXiv2025

Personalized Two-sided Dose Interval

In fields such as medicine and social sciences, the goal of treatment is often to maintain the outcome of interest within a desirable range rather than to optimize its value. To achieve this, it may be more practical to recommend a treatment dose interval rather than a single fixed level for a study unit. Since individuals may respond differently to the same treatment level, the recommended dose interval should be personalized based on their unique characteristics. Iterative procedures have been proposed to jointly learn the lower and upper bounds of personalized dose intervals, but they lack theoretical justification. To fill this gap, we propose a method to learn personalized two-sided dose intervals based on empirical risk minimization using a novel loss function. The proposed loss function is designed to be well-defined over a tensor product function space, eliminating the need for iterative procedures. In addition, the loss function is doubly-robust to the misspecification of nuisance functions. We establish statistical properties of the estimated dose interval in terms of excess risk by leveraging the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory. Our simulation study and real-world applications in warfarin dosing and the Job Corps program show that our proposed direct estimation method outperforms competing methods, including indirect regression-based methods.

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arXiv2024

Modeling Interference Via Symmetric Treatment Decomposition

Classical causal inference assumes treatments meant for a given unit do not have an effect on other units. This assumption is violated in interference problems, where new types of spillover causal effects arise, and causal inference becomes much more difficult. In addition, interference introduces a unique complication where variables may transmit treatment influences to each other, which is a relationship that has some features of a causal one, but is symmetric. In this paper, we develop a new approach to decomposing the spillover effect into unit-specific components that extends the DAG based treatment decomposition approach to mediation of Robins and Richardson to causal models that admit stable symmetric relationships among variables in a network. We discuss two interpretations of such models: a network structural model interpretation, and an interpretation based on equilibrium of structural equation models discussed in (Lauritzen and Richardson, 2002). We show that both interpretations yield identical identification theory, and give conditions for components of the spillover effect to be identified. We discuss statistical inference for identified components of the spillover effect, including a maximum likelihood estimator, and a doubly robust estimator for the special case of two interacting outcomes. We verify consistency and robustness of our estimators via a simulation study, and illustrate our method by assessing the causal effect of education attainment on depressive symptoms using the data on households from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.

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arXiv2024

Electromagnetic field in a cavity induced by gravitational waves

The detection method of gravitational waves (GW) using electromagnetic (EM) cavities has garnered significant attention in recent years. This paper thoroughly examines the analysis for the perturbation of the EM field and raises some issues in the existing literature. Our work demonstrates that the rigidity condition imposed on the material, as provided in the literature, is inappropriate due to its reliance on a gauge-dependent quantity that cannot be controlled experimentally. Instead, we incorporate elasticity into the material and revise the governing equations for the electric field induced by GWs, expressing them solely in terms of gauge-invariant quantities. Applying these equations to cylindrical cavities, we present the GW antenna patterns for the detector.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

SPECtrophotometer for TRansmission spectroscopy of exoplanets (SPECTR)

The SPECtrophotometer for TRansmission spectroscopy of exoplanets (SPECTR) is a new low-resolution optical (3800 Å - 6850 Å) spectrophotometer installed at the Bohyunsan Optical Astronomy Observatory (BOAO) 1.8 m telescope. SPECTR is designed for observing the transmission spectra of transiting exoplanets. Unique features of SPECTR are its long slit length of 10 arcminutes which facilitates observing the target and the comparison star simultaneously, and its wide slit width to minimize slit losses. SPECTR will be used to survey exoplanets, such as those identified by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), providing information about their radii across the wavelength range. In this paper, we present the design of SPECTR and the observational results of the partial transit of HD 189733 b and a full transit of Qatar-8 b. Analyses show the SPECTR's capability on the white light curves with an accuracy of one ppt. The transmission spectrum of HD 189733 b shows general agreement with previous studies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Regression-Based Proximal Causal Inference

Negative controls are increasingly used to evaluate the presence of potential unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Beyond the use of negative controls to detect the presence of residual confounding, proximal causal inference (PCI) was recently proposed to de-bias confounded causal effect estimates, by leveraging a pair of treatment and outcome negative control or confounding proxy variables. While formal methods for statistical inference have been developed for PCI, these methods can be challenging to implement as they involve solving complex integral equations that are typically ill-posed. We develop a regression-based PCI approach, employing two-stage generalized linear regression models (GLMs) to implement PCI, which obviates the need to solve difficult integral equations. The proposed approach has merit in that (i) it is applicable to continuous, count, and binary outcomes cases, making it relevant to a wide range of real-world applications, and (ii) it is easy to implement using off-the-shelf software for GLMs. We establish the statistical properties of regression-based PCI and illustrate their performance in both synthetic and real-world empirical applications.

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arXiv2024

Single Proxy Control

Negative control variables are sometimes used in non-experimental studies to detect the presence of confounding by hidden factors. A negative control outcome (NCO) is an outcome that is influenced by unobserved confounders of the exposure effects on the outcome in view, but is not causally impacted by the exposure. Tchetgen Tchetgen (2013) introduced the Control Outcome Calibration Approach (COCA) as a formal NCO counterfactual method to detect and correct for residual confounding bias. For identification, COCA treats the NCO as an error-prone proxy of the treatment-free counterfactual outcome of interest, and involves regressing the NCO on the treatment-free counterfactual, together with a rank-preserving structural model which assumes a constant individual-level causal effect. In this work, we establish nonparametric COCA identification for the average causal effect for the treated, without requiring rank-preservation, therefore accommodating unrestricted effect heterogeneity across units. This nonparametric identification result has important practical implications, as it provides single proxy confounding control, in contrast to recently proposed proximal causal inference, which relies for identification on a pair of confounding proxies. For COCA estimation we propose three separate strategies: (i) an extended propensity score approach, (ii) an outcome bridge function approach, and (iii) a doubly-robust approach. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methods in an application evaluating the causal impact of a Zika virus outbreak on birth rate in Brazil.

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arXiv2023

A superconducting tensor detector for mid-frequency gravitational waves: its multi-channel nature and main astrophysical targets

Mid-frequency band gravitational-wave detectors will be complementary for the existing Earth-based detectors (sensitive above 10 Hz or so) and the future space-based detectors such as LISA, which will be sensitive below around 10 mHz. A ground-based superconducting omnidirectional gravitational radiation observatory (SOGRO) has recently been proposed along with several design variations for the frequency band of 0.1 to 10 Hz. For three conceptual designs of SOGRO (e.g., pSOGRO, SOGRO and aSOGRO), we examine their multi-channel natures, sensitivities and science cases. One of the key characteristics of the SOGRO concept is its six detection channels. The response functions of each channel are calculated for all possible gravitational wave polarizations including scalar and vector modes. Combining these response functions, we also confirm the omnidirectional nature of SOGRO. Hence, even a single SOGRO detector will be able to determine the position of a source and polarizations of gravitational waves, if detected. Taking into account SOGRO's sensitivity and technical requirements, two main targets are most plausible: gravitational waves from compact binaries and stochastic backgrounds. Based on assumptions we consider in this work, detection rates for intermediate-mass binary black holes (in the mass range of hundreds up to $10^{4}$ $M_\odot$) are expected to be $0.0014-2.5 \,\, {\rm yr}^{-1}$. In order to detect stochastic gravitational wave background, multiple detectors are required. Two aSOGRO detector networks may be able to put limits on the stochastic background beyond the indirect limit from cosmological observations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Minimum Resource Threshold Policy Under Partial Interference

When developing policies for prevention of infectious diseases, policymakers often set specific, outcome-oriented targets to achieve. For example, when developing a vaccine allocation policy, policymakers may want to distribute them so that at least a certain fraction of individuals in a census block are disease-free and spillover effects due to interference within blocks are accounted for. The paper proposes methods to estimate a block-level treatment policy that achieves a pre-defined, outcome-oriented target while accounting for spillover effects due to interference. Our policy, the minimum resource threshold policy (MRTP), suggests the minimum fraction of treated units required within a block to meet or exceed the target level of the outcome. We estimate the MRTP from empirical risk minimization using a novel, nonparametric, doubly robust loss function. We then characterize statistical properties of the estimated MRTP in terms of the excess risk bound. We apply our methodology to design a water, sanitation, and hygiene allocation policy for Senegal with the goal of increasing the proportion of households with no children experiencing diarrhea to a level exceeding a specified threshold. Our policy outperforms competing policies and offers new approaches to design allocation policies, especially in international development for communicable diseases.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

The Horizon Run 5 Cosmological Hydrodynamic Simulation: Probing Galaxy Formation from Kilo- to Giga-parsec Scales

Horizon Run 5 (HR5) is a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation which captures the properties of the Universe on a Gpc scale while achieving a resolution of 1kpc. Inside the simulation box we zoom-in on a high-resolution cuboid region with a volume of $1049\times119\times127\,{\rm cMpc}^3$.The sub-grid physics chosen to model galaxy formation includes radiative heating/cooling, UV background, star formation, supernova feedback, chemical evolution tracking the enrichment of oxygen and iron, the growth of supermassive black holes and feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) in the form of a dual jet-heating mode. For this simulation we implemented a hybrid MPI-OMP version of RAMSES, specifically targeted for modern many-core many thread parallel architectures. In addition to the traditional simulation snapshots, light-cone data was generated on the fly. For the post-processing, we extended the Friends-of-Friend (FoF) algorithm and developed a new galaxy finder PGalF to analyse the outputs of HR5. The simulation successfully reproduces observations, such as the cosmic star formation history and connectivity of galaxy distribution, We identify cosmological structures at a wide range of scales, from filaments with a length of several cMpc, to voids with a radius of ~100 cMpc. The simulation also indicates that hydrodynamical effects on small scales impact galaxy clustering up to very large scales near and beyond the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale. Hence, caution should be taken when using that scale as a cosmic standard ruler: one needs to carefully understand the corresponding biases. The simulation is expected to be an invaluable asset for the interpretation of upcoming deep surveys of the Universe.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

A Groupwise Approach for Inferring Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Causal Inference

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across pre-defined subgroups of study units, which we call the groupwise approach. The paper compares two modern ways to estimate groupwise treatment effects, a nonparametric approach and a semiparametric approach, with the goal of better informing practice. Specifically, we compare (a) the underlying assumptions, (b) efficiency and adaption to the underlying data generating models, and (c) a way to combine the two approaches. We also discuss how to test a key assumption concerning the semiparametric estimator and to obtain cluster-robust standard errors if study units in the same subgroups are correlated. We demonstrate our findings by conducting simulation studies and reanalyzing the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.

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arXiv2023

Universal Difference-in-Differences for Causal Inference in Epidemiology

Difference-in-differences is undoubtedly one of the most widely used methods for evaluating the causal effect of an intervention in observational (i.e., nonrandomized) settings. The approach is typically used when pre- and post-exposure outcome measurements are available, and one can reasonably assume that the association of the unobserved confounder with the outcome has the same absolute magnitude in the two exposure arms, and is constant over time; a so-called parallel trends assumption. The parallel trends assumption may not be credible in many practical settings, including if the outcome is binary, a count, or polytomous, as well as when an uncontrolled confounder exhibits non-additive effects on the distribution of the outcome, even if such effects are constant over time. We introduce an alternative approach that replaces the parallel trends assumption with an odds ratio equi-confounding assumption under which an association between treatment and the potential outcome under no-treatment is identified with a well-specified generalized linear model relating the pre-exposure outcome and the exposure. Because the proposed method identifies any causal effect that is conceivably identified in the absence of confounding bias, including nonlinear effects such as quantile treatment effects, the approach is aptly called Universal Difference-in-differences (UDiD). Both fully parametric and more robust semiparametric UDiD estimators are described and illustrated in a real-world application concerning the causal effects of a Zika virus outbreak on birth rate in Brazil.

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