arXiv subjects

Chenghao Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Chenghao Liu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Post-Training in Time Series Foundation Models: A Unifying Framework

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as general-purpose models for time series analysis, but pretraining alone is often insufficient for reliable downstream deployment. Bridging this gap requires further intervention to handle domain shift, task heterogeneity, limited supervision, and computational constraints, which motivates post-training as a broad class of methods to adapt, augment, compose, calibrate, or specialize pretrained TSFMs for downstream tasks. In this work, we analyze TSFM post-training methods based on their locus of intervention in the prediction pipeline, yielding five categories: parameter adaptation, context augmentation, model composition, output processing and uncertainty control, and compression and specialization. Within each category, we study main representative methods and discuss their current limitations. We further identify future directions toward controlled adaptation, reliable context construction, uncertainty-aware model composition, calibrated output processing, and deployment-aware specialization. Overall, by providing a unifying framework for the emerging TSFM post-training landscape, this work aims to support future research to navigate the design space between a pretrained TSFM and its reliable downstream deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LLM Agents for Time-Series: A Survey

LLM-based agents are increasingly being developed for time-series problems, but their design choices vary substantially across task settings. This survey adopts a problem-driven taxonomy that organizes these systems by the time-series problems they address rather than by isolated technical components. We group existing systems into four categories: forecasting and reasoning, augmentation and synthesis, anomaly detection and diagnosis, and decision support. Within each category, we examine how task requirements shape agent architecture, tool use, and memory design. We further summarize representative datasets and environments, and compare reported model performance under shared or closely related settings. Overall, this survey offers a task-oriented guide to designing LLM-based agents for time-series problems and identifies open gaps for future work.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

MOSS-VL Technical Report

We present MOSS-VL, an open vision-language model family that treats real-time interaction -- perceiving while it speaks -- as a first-class capability. It is co-designed across the stack: the language decoder attends to vision only through gated cross-attention, so the model can naturally see incoming frames while generating; a synthesized interaction corpus supervises when to speak, when to stay silent, and when to revise; and a staged curriculum concentrates all real-time-specific training in one light final stage over a strong offline foundation. Offline, MOSS-VL-Instruct is competitive at comparable scale and leads temporal-reasoning video sets. Across four streaming benchmarks, MOSS-VL-Realtime posts the best average on three (second on the fourth) among open-source streaming models, sweeping the three subsets that squarely test proactive behavior -- 66.0 vs. 37.5 for the best baseline on OmniMMI Proactive Alerting. With 11.3B parameters but visual tokens outside the decoded sequence, MOSS-VL widens its time-to-first-token advantage over same-backbone Qwen3-VL-8B from 2.8x to 5.1x as visual context grows. We release all five checkpoints, the training curriculum, and the real-time inference code at https://github.com/OpenMOSS/MOSS-VL.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

OATS: Online Data Augmentation for Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are a powerful paradigm for time series analysis and are often enhanced by synthetic data augmentation to improve the training data quality. Existing augmentation methods, however, typically rely on heuristics and static paradigms. Motivated by dynamic data optimization, which shows that the contribution of samples varies across training stages, we propose OATS (Online Data Augmentation for Time Series Foundation Models), a principled strategy that generates synthetic data tailored to different training steps. OATS leverages valuable training samples as principled guiding signals and dynamically generates high-quality synthetic data conditioned on them. We further design a diffusion-based framework to produce realistic time series and introduce an explore-exploit mechanism to balance efficiency and effectiveness. Experiments on TSFMs demonstrate that OATS consistently outperforms regular training and yields substantial performance gains over static data augmentation baselines across six validation datasets and two TSFM architectures. The code is available at the link https://github.com/microsoft/TimeCraft.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MemOPD: On-Policy Distillation through Memory State Alignment for Long-Horizon Agents

Long-horizon agents accumulate growing contexts during interaction, impairing performance and stability. Compact memory mitigates this problem by compressing and rewriting the history retained between model invocations. Learning what to retain typically relies on proximal policy optimization (PPO) with final task rewards, but sparse rewards provide little guidance for individual memory updates. This limitation motivates on-policy distillation (OPD), which supplies dense teacher supervision on student rollouts. For such supervision to be valid, the teacher must evaluate each sampled action under the same state in which it was generated. However, the context rewriting performed during memory compression can break this alignment. When sampled responses are retained and re-encoded for later invocations, flattening the interaction into a persistent history may cause the teacher to score the action under a state that the student never visited during rollout. The action therefore remains on-policy by provenance, but not necessarily by state. We therefore propose Memory-Aligned On-Policy Distillation (MemOPD). MemOPD records the inputs and sampled outputs of each model invocation, restores its original token positions and causal visibility, and packs the reconstructed invocations for efficient teacher scoring. The teacher provides full-vocabulary supervision at the sampled action positions, while PPO preserves the final task objective. Experiments verify state alignment across several context updates and show that it improves F1 by 7.0% over persistent-history teacher scoring in a matched control. Overall, MemOPD-3B improves F1 over PPO by up to 416.2%, while packing yields up to a 1.63x speedup in actor computation during training. The code for this work is publicly available at: https://github.com/TPssp/MemOPD.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

VFEAgent: A Multimodal Agent Framework for End-to-End Automated Finite Element Analysis

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) serves as the cornerstone of modern engineering design. However, its workflow is inherently complex and relies heavily on domain expertise. Although recent efforts have integrated Large Language Models (LLMs) into FEA, existing approaches face limitations in handling multimodal inputs and executing complex tasks. To address these limitations, we propose VFEAgent, an end-to-end multi-agent system designed to automate FEA modeling and simulation directly from input images and problem descriptions. Our methodology integrates two core components: (1) a multimodal vision-language multi-agent pipeline that employs ReAct-driven reasoning to extract structured FEA specifications from heterogeneous inputs and (2) a verification-first code synthesis framework, incorporating robust self-debugging and fallback mechanisms to ensure executability and physical validity. We systematically evaluated the system across various engineering mechanics scenarios. The results demonstrate that VFEAgent achieves a high success rate in generating complete and physically valid simulations, outperforming LLM-based baseline methods in reliability and correctness. These findings validate the feasibility of automating the complete FEA workflow, highlighting the framework's potential to liberate engineers from tedious manual analysis.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

PACE: Phase-Aware Chunk Execution for Robot Policies with Action Chunking

Recent vision-language-action and diffusion-based robot policies often use action chunking, where each policy query predicts a sequence of future actions and the robot executes an open-loop prefix before re-querying. While this interface improves local motion continuity, deployment still requires choosing the execution horizon: how much of each predicted chunk should be executed before acquiring a new observation. However, our experiments show that success is strongly task-dependent and non-monotonic with respect to the execution horizon, making a single constant horizon an unreliable deployment rule. We propose PACE (Phase-Aware Chunk Execution), a training-free test-time execution method that selects the execution horizon online from the predicted chunk itself. PACE exploits the phase-dependent kinematic structure of manipulation trajectories by identifying low-speed transition points in the predicted speed profile and using them as candidate replanning boundaries. Because PACE uses only the predicted action chunk, it is plug-and-play and requires no retraining or access to policy internals. We validate PACE through large-scale evaluations in both simulation and real-robot settings. On 50 RoboTwin2.0 tasks, PACE raises the average success rate from 57.8% to 64.2%. In real-robot experiments on bimanual ALOHA and single-arm Franka platforms, PACE improves the average task score from 60.7 to 77.7 and the average success rate from 50.7% to 70.4%. Ablations and rollout-level analyses show that PACE adapts execution horizons across manipulation phases, shortening near transitions while preserving longer execution during coherent motion.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Generative Retrieval via Diffusion Transformer with Metric-Ordered Sequence Training and Hybrid-Policy Preference Optimization

Embedding-based retrieval ranks items by their similarity to a query in a shared vector space and usually aims to return the highest-scoring items. In many production settings this is not what is wanted: given a seed set that expresses a fine-grained pattern, one needs more items that both satisfy a target attribute and stay within that pattern. We formalize this as pattern-preserving attribute retrieval. The two goals pull against each other: averaging the seeds preserves the pattern but stays in a low-attribute region, while global attribute retrieval drifts to unrelated patterns. We approach the task with continuous generative retrieval, where a model reads a sequence of item embeddings and generates query embeddings for nearest-neighbor search. We propose MO-DiT+HPPO, a staged framework with raw-sequence pretraining, multi-domain metric-ordered continuation pretraining, tail-centroid fine-tuning, and HPPO. Metric-ordered training turns sparse online retrieval labels into in-pattern trajectories ordered from low to high predicted attribute density, teaching one model the metric-improvement direction across domains. HPPO aligns the generated query distribution with the true online objective by labeling a hybrid candidate pool with the online intersection metric and applying reference-anchored preference optimization. A Pareto pair filter keeps only winner pairs that do not lower same-pattern purity, raising the attribute metric without sacrificing the pattern. Across four attribute domains under item- and pattern-holdout protocols, metric-ordered DiT improves the intersection metric over a pretrained generative retriever, and HPPO improves it further, with significant gains on seven of eight domain-split cells and a marginal tie on the hardest split. Metric-predictor validation, order ablations, CPT/SFT comparisons, and a candidate-policy ablation show where the gains come from.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CloudCons: A Comprehensive End-to-End Benchmark for Cloud Resource Consolidation

Driven by conservative over-provisioning to guarantee service reliability, resource utilization in cloud data centers remains at low levels. To mitigate this, the forecast-then-optimize paradigm has emerged to optimize consolidation by anticipating future demands. While emerging time series foundation models promise to enhance this paradigm through zero-shot generalization, existing benchmarks focus solely on prediction error metrics. The actual decision utility of these advanced models remains unverified, rendering their practical value for downstream tasks uncertain. To bridge this gap, we propose CloudCons, a comprehensive end-to-end benchmark designed to evaluate forecasting models within the specific context of cloud resource consolidation. We build high-quality datasets that cover diverse workloads from Huawei Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Google Borg, capturing distinct service characteristics ranging from synchronized diurnal rhythms to stochastic, pulse-like bursts and high-frequency noise. We conduct an extensive evaluation of statistical, deep learning, and foundation models. Our experiments reveal a pivotal finding: while foundation models demonstrate superior zero-shot forecasting accuracy, this advantage does not inherently translate into better decision utility. Of practical significance, we systematically analyze how the selection of predictive quantiles acts as a critical lever. We provide actionable guidelines for calibrating these selections to balance the trade-off between resource efficiency and service reliability, offering vital insights for real-world deployment decisions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

MOSS-Audio Technical Report

MOSS-Audio is a unified audio-language model for speech, environmental sound, and music understanding, supporting audio captioning, time-aware question answering, timestamped transcription, and audio-grounded reasoning. MOSS-Audio couples a dedicated audio encoder with a modality adapter and a large language model: the encoder produces 12.5 Hz temporal representations, the adapter projects them into the decoder space, and the decoder generates autoregressive text outputs. Two design choices are central to the system: DeepStack cross-layer feature injection, which exposes the decoder to acoustic information from multiple encoder depths, and time markers, which provide explicit temporal cues by inserting timestamp markers into the audio-token stream. At the data level, we design an event-preserving audio annotation pipeline that segments raw audio at coherent event boundaries, applies branch-specific annotation to speech, music, and general audio, and merges the results into unified captions for pretraining. The intermediate branch-specific captions are further retained to support the construction of task-oriented SFT data. The model is pretrained on large-scale audio-language data, with time-aware objectives incorporated to support temporal grounding, and then undergoes multi-stage post-training to enhance instruction following and audio-grounded reasoning. We release 4B and 8B variants in both Instruct and Thinking configurations. MOSS-Audio achieves strong performance across general audio understanding, speech captioning, ASR, and timestamped ASR, positioning it as a promising understanding foundation for future voice agents.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2026

Toto 2.0: Time Series Forecasting Enters the Scaling Era

We show that time series foundation models scale: a single training recipe produces reliable forecast-quality improvements from 4M to 2.5B parameters. We release Toto 2.0, a family of five open-weights forecasting models trained under this recipe. The Toto 2.0 family sets a new state of the art on three forecasting benchmarks: BOOM, our observability benchmark; GIFT-Eval, the standard general-purpose benchmark; and the recent contamination-resistant TIME benchmark. This report describes our experimental results and details the design decisions behind Toto 2.0: its architecture and training recipe, training data, and the u-muP hyperparameter transfer pipeline. All five base checkpoints are released under Apache 2.0.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

It's TIME: Towards the Next Generation of Time Series Forecasting Benchmarks

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MOSS-Video-Preview: Toward Real-Time Video Understanding via Cross-Attention

Video understanding is shifting from the offline paradigm -- taking a fully recorded video as input and producing a single answer after it ends -- toward real-time interaction, in which the model perceives new frames while still replying, revises its answer as new evidence appears, and remains silent when there is nothing to say. We present MOSS-Video-Preview to validate this paradigm. Our central claim is that perception must not be blocked by generation; its natural realization is a two-channel architecture. We argue that a cross-attention backbone is better suited to real-time vision-language fusion than the prevailing decoder-only design: visual features enter through a side channel rather than joining the autoregressive sequence, so perception and generation run on separate, non-blocking pathways -- reducing the frequency of visual processing and exposing a clean channel-wise interface for independent compression. We complement this with a data synthesis pipeline that converts dense captions into real-time understanding QA whose answers are revised to match what the model has perceived so far, and we specialize an offline model on these data to elicit real-time behavior. Our model trails the strong Qwen2.5-VL-7B baseline overall -- a gap we attribute primarily to data and scale rather than the architecture -- yet attains competitive offline video and multimodal understanding, remains robust on the spatial and fine-grained temporal reasoning central to real-time use, and acquires behaviors that offline models lack: continuous perception, answer revision, and timely silence. On a single H200 with 256 frames per video, it achieves about a 5x speedup in time to first token and 2.7x higher decoding throughput, with negligible degradation in offline ability. Our study of paradigm, architecture, and data outlines a viable path toward real-time video understanding.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Towards Foundation Models for Zero-Shot Time Series Anomaly Detection: Leveraging Synthetic Data and Relative Context Discrepancy

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a critical task, but developing models that generalize to unseen data in a zero-shot manner remains challenging. Existing foundation models for TSAD often rely on reconstruction-error scoring at inference time, which can miss subtle anomalies that are well reconstructed and can falsely flag complex but normal patterns in unseen domains. We introduce TimeRCD, a foundation model for TSAD built on Relative Context Discrepancy (RCD), a pre-training paradigm that trains the model to detect anomalies by comparing a query pattern with its surrounding context. This relational formulation, implemented with a standard Transformer architecture, enables the model to infer normality from the input context rather than relying on fixed global normal patterns. We further construct a large-scale synthetic corpus with context-dependent anomaly labels to provide supervised pre-training signals for RCD. Experiments across diverse benchmarks show that TimeRCD outperforms existing general-purpose and anomaly-specific foundation models in most zero-shot TSAD settings, while remaining competitive with dataset-specific full-shot baselines. These results provide empirical evidence that RCD is an effective direction for building robust and generalizable TSAD models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

What Frozen VLAs Already Know About Success: A Probing Study of Value-Like Structure in Foundation Robot Policies

Vision--language--action (VLA) policies are trained to imitate actions; their loss never asks them to estimate reward, progress, or future success. Their frozen representations nevertheless carry such information, and it can be read out and used to guide action choice without retraining the policy. From mixed successful and failed manipulation trajectories on LIBERO-Goal, we recover Monte-Carlo outcome targets using lightweight linear probes on frozen features. The targets are consistently predictable from OpenVLA, Pi0.5, DINOv2, and CLIP features, and substantially less so from baselines built on progress, time-to-go, task identity, or proprioception. To rule out task and temporal shortcuts, we evaluate the probes under same-task, same-timestep matched comparisons: Pi0.5 probes still reach roughly 92% pairwise ordering accuracy, while label-shuffled controls stay at chance. Used as a test-time selector over sampled Pi0.5 action prefixes, the same probe turns this offline finding into behavior: on push-plate, success rises from 26.7% under greedy decoding to 44.3%, with a second positive case on wine-rack. The gains are not universal and require additional inference compute, but the underlying finding is clean: frozen VLAs already encode information about success that their imitation objective never explicitly demands.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

GDformer: Going Beyond Subsequence Isolation for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

Unsupervised anomaly detection of multivariate time series is a challenging task, given the requirements of deriving a compact detection criterion without accessing the anomaly points. The existing methods are mainly based on reconstruction error or association divergence, which are both confined to isolated subsequences with limited horizons, hardly promising unified series-level criterion. In this paper, we propose the Global Dictionary-enhanced Transformer (GDformer) with a renovated dictionary-based cross attention mechanism to cultivate the global representations shared by all normal points in the entire series. Accordingly, the cross-attention maps reflect the correlation weights between the point and global representations, which naturally leads to the representation-wise similarity-based detection criterion. To foster more compact detection boundary, prototypes are introduced to capture the distribution of normal point-global correlation weights. GDformer consistently achieves state-of-the-art unsupervised anomaly detection performance on five real-world benchmark datasets. Further experiments validate the global dictionary has great transferability among various datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TSFMAudit: Data Contamination Auditing in Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly pretrained on large corpora, raising concerns that evaluation datasets may have been exposed during pretraining and thus yield overly optimistic performance estimates. Auditing such contamination is challenging in time series because signals are continuous and heterogeneous, and often lack corpus documentation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to study pretraining contamination auditing for TSFMs. We formalize the problem of pretraining contamination auditing for TSFMs and propose TSFMAudit, a method based on probe adaptation dynamics. Our key intuition is that contamination manifests as unusually efficient adaptation: after a fine tuning probe, contaminated datasets tend to exhibit faster loss reduction with smaller backbone movement. We evaluate TSFMAudit on 6 TSFMs and 187 datasets using documented training source evidence as supervision, and compare against 10 competitive baselines adapted from the LLM literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

ARFBench: Benchmarking Time Series Question Answering Ability for Software Incident Response

Time series question-answering (TSQA), in which we ask natural language questions to infer and reason about properties of time series, is a promising yet underexplored capability of foundation models. In this work, we present ARFBench, a TSQA benchmark that evaluates the understanding of multimodal foundation models (FMs) on time series anomalies prevalent in software incident data. ARFBench consists of 750 questions across 142 time series and 5.38M data points from 63 production incidents sourced exclusively from internal telemetry at Datadog. We evaluate leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and time series FMs and observe that frontier VLMs perform markedly better than existing baselines; the leading model (GPT-5) achieves a 62.7% accuracy and 51.9% F1. We next demonstrate the promise of specialized multimodal approaches. We develop a novel TSFM + VLM hybrid prototype which we post-train on a small set of synthetic and real data that yields comparable overall F1 and accuracy with frontier models. Lastly, we find models and human domain experts exhibit complementary strengths. We define a model-expert oracle, a best-of-2 oracle selector over model and expert answers, yielding 82.8% F1 and 87.2% accuracy and establishing a new superhuman frontier for future TSQA models. The benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Datadog/ARFBench.

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