Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Chenghao Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Chenghao Liu.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

What Frozen VLAs Already Know About Success: A Probing Study of Value-Like Structure in Foundation Robot Policies

Vision--language--action (VLA) policies are trained to imitate actions; their loss never asks them to estimate reward, progress, or future success. Their frozen representations nevertheless carry such information, and it can be read out and used to guide action choice without retraining the policy. From mixed successful and failed manipulation trajectories on LIBERO-Goal, we recover Monte-Carlo outcome targets using lightweight linear probes on frozen features. The targets are consistently predictable from OpenVLA, Pi0.5, DINOv2, and CLIP features, and substantially less so from baselines built on progress, time-to-go, task identity, or proprioception. To rule out task and temporal shortcuts, we evaluate the probes under same-task, same-timestep matched comparisons: Pi0.5 probes still reach roughly 92% pairwise ordering accuracy, while label-shuffled controls stay at chance. Used as a test-time selector over sampled Pi0.5 action prefixes, the same probe turns this offline finding into behavior: on push-plate, success rises from 26.7% under greedy decoding to 44.3%, with a second positive case on wine-rack. The gains are not universal and require additional inference compute, but the underlying finding is clean: frozen VLAs already encode information about success that their imitation objective never explicitly demands.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

GDformer: Going Beyond Subsequence Isolation for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

Unsupervised anomaly detection of multivariate time series is a challenging task, given the requirements of deriving a compact detection criterion without accessing the anomaly points. The existing methods are mainly based on reconstruction error or association divergence, which are both confined to isolated subsequences with limited horizons, hardly promising unified series-level criterion. In this paper, we propose the Global Dictionary-enhanced Transformer (GDformer) with a renovated dictionary-based cross attention mechanism to cultivate the global representations shared by all normal points in the entire series. Accordingly, the cross-attention maps reflect the correlation weights between the point and global representations, which naturally leads to the representation-wise similarity-based detection criterion. To foster more compact detection boundary, prototypes are introduced to capture the distribution of normal point-global correlation weights. GDformer consistently achieves state-of-the-art unsupervised anomaly detection performance on five real-world benchmark datasets. Further experiments validate the global dictionary has great transferability among various datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TSFMAudit: Data Contamination Auditing in Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly pretrained on large corpora, raising concerns that evaluation datasets may have been exposed during pretraining and thus yield overly optimistic performance estimates. Auditing such contamination is challenging in time series because signals are continuous and heterogeneous, and often lack corpus documentation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to study pretraining contamination auditing for TSFMs. We formalize the problem of pretraining contamination auditing for TSFMs and propose TSFMAudit, a method based on probe adaptation dynamics. Our key intuition is that contamination manifests as unusually efficient adaptation: after a fine tuning probe, contaminated datasets tend to exhibit faster loss reduction with smaller backbone movement. We evaluate TSFMAudit on 6 TSFMs and 187 datasets using documented training source evidence as supervision, and compare against 10 competitive baselines adapted from the LLM literature.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ARFBench: Benchmarking Time Series Question Answering Ability for Software Incident Response

Time series question-answering (TSQA), in which we ask natural language questions to infer and reason about properties of time series, is a promising yet underexplored capability of foundation models. In this work, we present ARFBench, a TSQA benchmark that evaluates the understanding of multimodal foundation models (FMs) on time series anomalies prevalent in software incident data. ARFBench consists of 750 questions across 142 time series and 5.38M data points from 63 production incidents sourced exclusively from internal telemetry at Datadog. We evaluate leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and time series FMs and observe that frontier VLMs perform markedly better than existing baselines; the leading model (GPT-5) achieves a 62.7% accuracy and 51.9% F1. We next demonstrate the promise of specialized multimodal approaches. We develop a novel TSFM + VLM hybrid prototype which we post-train on a small set of synthetic and real data that yields comparable overall F1 and accuracy with frontier models. Lastly, we find models and human domain experts exhibit complementary strengths. We define a model-expert oracle, a best-of-2 oracle selector over model and expert answers, yielding 82.8% F1 and 87.2% accuracy and establishing a new superhuman frontier for future TSQA models. The benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Datadog/ARFBench.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

EIDOS: Latent-Space Predictive Learning for Time Series Foundation Models

Most time series foundation models are pretrained by directly predicting future observations, which often yields weakly structured latent representations that capture surface noise rather than coherent and predictable temporal dynamics. In this work, we introduce EIDOS, a foundation model family that shifts pretraining from future value prediction to latent-space predictive learning. We train a causal Transformer to predict the evolution of latent representations, encouraging the emergence of structured and temporally coherent latent states. To ensure stable targets for latent-space learning, we design a lightweight aggregation branch to construct target representations. EIDOS is optimized via a joint objective that integrates latent-space alignment, observational grounding to anchor representations to the input signal, and direct forecasting supervision. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, EIDOS mitigates structural fragmentation in the representation space and achieves state-of-the-art performance. These results demonstrate that constraining models to learn predictable latent dynamics is a principled step toward more robust and reliable time series foundation models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting

We introduce Moirai 2.0, a decoder-only time-series foundation model trained on a new corpus of 36M series. The model adopts quantile forecasting and multi-token prediction, improving both probabilistic accuracy and inference efficiency. On the Gift-Eval benchmark, it ranks among the top pretrained models while achieving a strong trade-off between accuracy, speed, and model size. Compared to Moirai 1.0, Moirai 2.0 replaces masked-encoder training, multi-patch inputs, and mixture-distribution outputs with a simpler decoder-only architecture, single patch, and quantile loss. Ablation studies isolate these changes -- showing that the decoder-only backbone along with recursive multi-quantile decoding contribute most to the gains. Additional experiments show that Moirai 2.0 outperforms larger models from the same family and exhibits robust domain-level results. In terms of efficiency and model size, Moirai 2.0 is twice as fast and thirty times smaller than its prior best version, Moirai 1.0-Large, while also performing better. Model performance plateaus with increasing parameter count and declines at longer horizons, motivating future work on data scaling and long-horizon modeling. We release code and evaluation details to support further research.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Achieving Time Series Reasoning Requires Rethinking Model Design, Tasks Formulation, and Evaluation

Understanding time series data is fundamental to many real-world applications. Recent work explores multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to enhance time series understanding with contextual information beyond numerical signals. This area has grown from 7 papers in 2023 to over 580 in 2025, yet existing methods struggle in real-world settings. We analyze 20 influential works from 2025 across model design, task formulation, and evaluation, and identify critical gaps: methods adapt NLP techniques with limited attention to core time series properties; tasks remain restricted to traditional prediction and classification; and evaluations emphasize benchmarks over robustness, interpretability, or decision relevance. We argue that achieving time series reasoning requires rethinking model design, task formulation, and evaluation together. We define time series reasoning, outline challenges and future directions, and call on researchers to develop unified frameworks for robust, interpretable, and decision-relevant reasoning in real-world applications. The material is available at https://github.com/Eleanorkong/Awesome-Time-Series-Reasoning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data

Diffusion models have been widely used in time series and spatio-temporal data, enhancing generative, inferential, and downstream capabilities. These models are applied across diverse fields such as healthcare, recommendation, climate, energy, audio, and traffic. By separating applications for time series and spatio-temporal data, we offer a structured perspective on model category, task type, data modality, and practical application domain. This study aims to provide a solid foundation for researchers and practitioners, inspiring future innovations that tackle traditional challenges and foster novel solutions in diffusion model-based data mining tasks and applications. For more detailed information, we have open-sourced a repository at https://github.com/yyysjz1997/Awesome-TimeSeries-SpatioTemporal-Diffusion-Model.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

TTF-VLA: Temporal Token Fusion via Pixel-Attention Integration for Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models process visual inputs independently at each timestep, discarding valuable temporal information inherent in robotic manipulation tasks. This frame-by-frame processing makes models vulnerable to visual noise while ignoring the substantial coherence between consecutive frames in manipulation sequences. We propose Temporal Token Fusion (TTF), a training-free approach that intelligently integrates historical and current visual representations to enhance VLA inference quality. Our method employs dual-dimension detection combining efficient grayscale pixel difference analysis with attention-based semantic relevance assessment, enabling selective temporal token fusion through hard fusion strategies and keyframe anchoring to prevent error accumulation. Comprehensive experiments across LIBERO, SimplerEnv, and real robot tasks demonstrate consistent improvements: 4.0 percentage points average on LIBERO (72.4\% vs 68.4\% baseline), cross-environment validation on SimplerEnv (4.8\% relative improvement), and 8.7\% relative improvement on real robot tasks. Our approach proves model-agnostic, working across OpenVLA and VLA-Cache architectures. Notably, TTF reveals that selective Query matrix reuse in attention mechanisms enhances rather than compromises performance, suggesting promising directions for direct KQV matrix reuse strategies that achieve computational acceleration while improving task success rates.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

AXIS: Explainable Time Series Anomaly Detection with Large Language Models

Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) increasingly demands explanations that articulate not only if an anomaly occurred, but also what pattern it exhibits and why it is anomalous. Leveraging the impressive explanatory capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), recent works have attempted to treat time series as text for explainable TSAD. However, this approach faces a fundamental challenge: LLMs operate on discrete tokens and struggle to directly process long, continuous signals. Consequently, naive time-to-text serialization suffers from a lack of contextual grounding and representation alignment between the two modalities. To address this gap, we introduce AXIS, a framework that conditions a frozen LLM for nuanced time-series understanding. Instead of direct serialization, AXIS enriches the LLM's input with three complementary hints derived from the series: (i) a symbolic numeric hint for numerical grounding, (ii) a context-integrated, step-aligned hint distilled from a pretrained time-series encoder to capture fine-grained dynamics, and (iii) a task-prior hint that encodes global anomaly characteristics. Furthermore, to facilitate robust evaluation of explainability, we introduce a new benchmark featuring multi-format questions and rationales that supervise contextual grounding and pattern-level semantics. Extensive experiments, including both LLM-based and human evaluations, demonstrate that AXIS yields explanations of significantly higher quality and achieves competitive detection accuracy compared to general-purpose LLMs, specialized time-series LLMs, and time-series Vision Language Models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

ShapeX: Shapelet-Driven Post Hoc Explanations for Time Series Classification Models

Explaining time series classification models is crucial, particularly in high-stakes applications such as healthcare and finance, where transparency and trust play a critical role. Although numerous time series classification methods have identified key subsequences, known as shapelets, as core features for achieving state-of-the-art performance and validating their pivotal role in classification outcomes, existing post-hoc time series explanation (PHTSE) methods primarily focus on timestep-level feature attribution. These explanation methods overlook the fundamental prior that classification outcomes are predominantly driven by key shapelets. To bridge this gap, we present ShapeX, an innovative framework that segments time series into meaningful shapelet-driven segments and employs Shapley values to assess their saliency. At the core of ShapeX lies the Shapelet Describe-and-Detect (SDD) framework, which effectively learns a diverse set of shapelets essential for classification. We further demonstrate that ShapeX produces explanations which reveal causal relationships instead of just correlations, owing to the atomicity properties of shapelets. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ShapeX outperforms existing methods in identifying the most relevant subsequences, enhancing both the precision and causal fidelity of time series explanations.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Multi-Scale Finetuning for Encoder-based Time Series Foundation Models

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate impressive zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. However, an important yet underexplored challenge is how to effectively finetune TSFMs on specific downstream tasks. While naive finetuning can yield performance gains, we argue that it falls short of fully leveraging TSFMs' capabilities, often resulting in overfitting and suboptimal performance. Given the diverse temporal patterns across sampling scales and the inherent multi-scale forecasting capabilities of TSFMs, we adopt a causal perspective to analyze finetuning process, through which we highlight the critical importance of explicitly modeling multiple scales and reveal the shortcomings of naive approaches. Focusing on encoder-based TSFMs, we propose Multiscale finetuning (MSFT), a simple yet general framework that explicitly integrates multi-scale modeling into the finetuning process. Experimental results on three different backbones (Moirai, Moment and Units) demonstrate that TSFMs finetuned with MSFT not only outperform naive and typical parameter efficient finetuning methods but also surpass state-of-the-art deep learning methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/zqiao11/MSFT.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

VisionTS++: Cross-Modal Time Series Foundation Model with Continual Pre-trained Vision Backbones

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from vision to time series remains challenging due to three discrepancies: (1) the data-modality gap between structured, bounded image data and unbounded, heterogeneous time series; (2) the multivariate-forecasting gap between fixed RGB-three-channel vision models and time series with arbitrary numbers of variates; and (3) the probabilistic-forecasting gap between the deterministic outputs of vision models and the requirement for uncertainty-aware probabilistic predictions. To bridge these gaps, we propose VisonTS++, a TSFM based on continual pre-training of a vision model on large-scale time series. Our approach introduces three key innovations: (1) vision-model-based filtering to identify high-quality sequences to stabilize pre-training and mitigate modality gap; (2) colorized multivariate conversion, encoding multivariate series as multi-subfigure RGB images to enhance cross-variate modeling; (3) multi-quantile forecasting, using parallel reconstruction heads to generate quantile forecasts without parametric assumptions. Experiments show that VisionTS++ achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution forecasting, outperforming specialized TSFMs by 6%-44% in MSE reduction and ranking first in GIFT-Eval benchmark which comprises 23 datasets across 7 domains. Our work demonstrates that with appropriate adaptation, vision models can effectively generalize to TSF, thus advancing the pursuit of universal TSFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/HALF111/VisionTSpp.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

MSNav: Zero-Shot Vision-and-Language Navigation with Dynamic Memory and LLM Spatial Reasoning

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) requires an agent to interpret natural language instructions and navigate complex environments. Current approaches often adopt a "black-box" paradigm, where a single Large Language Model (LLM) makes end-to-end decisions. However, it is plagued by critical vulnerabilities, including poor spatial reasoning, weak cross-modal grounding, and memory overload in long-horizon tasks. To systematically address these issues, we propose Memory Spatial Navigation(MSNav), a framework that fuses three modules into a synergistic architecture, which transforms fragile inference into a robust, integrated intelligence. MSNav integrates three modules: Memory Module, a dynamic map memory module that tackles memory overload through selective node pruning, enhancing long-range exploration; Spatial Module, a module for spatial reasoning and object relationship inference that improves endpoint recognition; and Decision Module, a module using LLM-based path planning to execute robust actions. Powering Spatial Module, we also introduce an Instruction-Object-Space (I-O-S) dataset and fine-tune the Qwen3-4B model into Qwen-Spatial (Qwen-Sp), which outperforms leading commercial LLMs in object list extraction, achieving higher F1 and NDCG scores on the I-O-S test set. Extensive experiments on the Room-to-Room (R2R) and REVERIE datasets demonstrate MSNav's state-of-the-art performance with significant improvements in Success Rate (SR) and Success weighted by Path Length (SPL).

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

Enhancing Cryptocurrency Sentiment Analysis with Multimodal Features

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity, the digital asset marketplace becomes increasingly significant. Understanding social media signals offers valuable insights into investor sentiment and market dynamics. Prior research has predominantly focused on text-based platforms such as Twitter. However, video content remains underexplored, despite potentially containing richer emotional and contextual sentiment that is not fully captured by text alone. In this study, we present a multimodal analysis comparing TikTok and Twitter sentiment, using large language models to extract insights from both video and text data. We investigate the dynamic dependencies and spillover effects between social media sentiment and cryptocurrency market indicators. Our results reveal that TikTok's video-based sentiment significantly influences speculative assets and short-term market trends, while Twitter's text-based sentiment aligns more closely with long-term dynamics. Notably, the integration of cross-platform sentiment signals improves forecasting accuracy by up to 20%.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2025

The Power of Architecture: Deep Dive into Transformer Architectures for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have recently become dominant in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), yet the variations in their architecture, such as encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only designs, raise a crucial question: What Transformer architecture works best for LTSF tasks? However, existing models are often tightly coupled with various time-series-specific designs, making it difficult to isolate the impact of the architecture itself. To address this, we propose a novel taxonomy that disentangles these designs, enabling clearer and more unified comparisons of Transformer architectures. Our taxonomy considers key aspects such as attention mechanisms, forecasting aggregations, forecasting paradigms, and normalization layers. Through extensive experiments, we uncover several key insights: bi-directional attention with joint-attention is most effective; more complete forecasting aggregation improves performance; and the direct-mapping paradigm outperforms autoregressive approaches. Furthermore, our combined model, utilizing optimal architectural choices, consistently outperforms several existing models, reinforcing the validity of our conclusions. We hope these findings offer valuable guidance for future research on Transformer architectural designs in LTSF. Our code is available at https://github.com/HALF111/TSF_architecture.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

MolCLIP: A Molecular-Auxiliary CLIP Framework for Identifying Drug Mechanism of Action Based on Time-Lapsed Mitochondrial Images

Drug Mechanism of Action (MoA) mainly investigates how drug molecules interact with cells, which is crucial for drug discovery and clinical application. Recently, deep learning models have been used to recognize MoA by relying on high-content and fluorescence images of cells exposed to various drugs. However, these methods focus on spatial characteristics while overlooking the temporal dynamics of live cells. Time-lapse imaging is more suitable for observing the cell response to drugs. Additionally, drug molecules can trigger cellular dynamic variations related to specific MoA. This indicates that the drug molecule modality may complement the image counterpart. This paper proposes MolCLIP, the first visual language model to combine microscopic cell video- and molecule-modalities. MolCLIP designs a molecule-auxiliary CLIP framework to guide video features in learning the distribution of the molecular latent space. Furthermore, we integrate a metric learning strategy with MolCLIP to optimize the aggregation of video features. Experimental results on the MitoDataset demonstrate that MolCLIP achieves improvements of 51.2% and 20.5% in mAP for drug identification and MoA recognition, respectively.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

VisionTS: Visual Masked Autoencoders Are Free-Lunch Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters

Foundation models have emerged as a promising approach in time series forecasting (TSF). Existing approaches either repurpose large language models (LLMs) or build large-scale time series datasets to develop TSF foundation models for universal forecasting. However, these methods face challenges due to the severe cross-domain gap or in-domain heterogeneity. This paper explores a new road to building a TSF foundation model from rich, high-quality natural images. Our key insight is that a visual masked autoencoder, pre-trained on the ImageNet dataset, can naturally be a numeric series forecaster. By reformulating TSF as an image reconstruction task, we bridge the gap between image pre-training and TSF downstream tasks. Surprisingly, without further adaptation in the time series domain, the proposed VisionTS could achieve better zero-shot forecast performance than existing TSF foundation models. With fine-tuning for one epoch, VisionTS could further improve the forecasting and achieve state-of-the-art performance in most cases. Extensive experiments reveal intrinsic similarities between images and real-world time series, suggesting that visual models may offer a "free lunch" for TSF and highlight the potential for future cross-modality research. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Keytoyze/VisionTS.

cs.CV↗