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Chun-Liang Li

Publications and source records attributed to Chun-Liang Li.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

WhatIf-Bench: Benchmarking Intervention-Aware Time Series Forecasting

Recent time series foundation models (TSFMs) can consume covariates in-context, extending zero-shot forecasting to problems driven by external factors. This enables scenario analysis: forecasting how a target responds to events that set covariates to chosen future values. Whether they can do this reliably is an open question. We introduce WhatIf-Bench, a benchmark measuring how well forecasters use covariates to forecast a target's response to future events. WhatIf-Bench is semi-synthetic: time series come from mechanistic simulators of data centers, power grids, road traffic, and water networks, with controlled covariate-target relationships grounded in each system. Each task presents a history of events intervening on covariates, then asks to forecast a future event that either replays seen values (Replay) or sets them to unseen ones (Novel). Varying the number of covariates, historical events, and event length yields 37,665 tasks. Evaluating TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and simple regression baselines, we find the LLMs reach the highest skill (improvement over a naive baseline), ahead of the best TSFMs. Every model forecasts well on Replay futures (48 to 85% skill) but drops to -7 to 50% on Novel futures, with the regression baselines falling the most. Skill on Novel futures also falls as events set more covariates jointly. More historical events raise skill on Novel futures across the board, but large differences remain. WhatIf-Bench reveals generalization to Novel futures as the core challenge, and offers a testbed toward arbitrary scenario analysis.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Object-Oriented Harness: Evolving Agent Harnesses through Object-Oriented Design

Agent harnesses are executable code that specifies the prompts, tools, and control flow around a language model. A single global harness can struggle with heterogeneous tasks that require different execution strategies. In this work, we introduce Object-Oriented Harness (OO-Harness), a harness optimization framework that evolves a hierarchy of executable harness classes using object-oriented design. During training, an evolution agent uses execution records to create a family of specialized harnesses, each implemented as a subclass of the base or an existing specialized harness via inheritance. At test time, a harness router uses routing lessons accumulated during training to select a specific harness for each task. Across three long-horizon benchmarks spanning business workflows, workspace tasks, and tool use, OO-Harness achieves the best performance among the compared methods, with an absolute improvement of up to 15% over the base. Extensive ablation studies examine the contributions of its core components.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

TrajTok: Learning Trajectory Tokens enables better Video Understanding

Tokenization in video models, typically through patchification, generates an excessive and redundant number of tokens. This severely limits video efficiency and scalability. While recent trajectory-based tokenizers offer a promising solution by decoupling video duration from token count, they rely on complex external segmentation and tracking pipelines that are slow and task-agnostic. We propose TrajTok, an end-to-end video tokenizer module that is fully integrated and co-trained with video models for a downstream objective, dynamically adapting its token granularity to semantic complexity, independent of video duration. TrajTok contains a unified segmenter that performs implicit clustering over pixels in both space and time to directly produce object trajectories in a single forward pass. By prioritizing downstream adaptability over pixel-perfect segmentation fidelity, TrajTok is lightweight and efficient, yet empirically improves video understanding performance. With TrajTok, we implement a video CLIP model trained from scratch (TrajViT2). It achieves the best accuracy at scale across both classification and retrieval benchmarks, while maintaining efficiency comparable to the best token-merging methods. TrajTok also proves to be a versatile component beyond its role as a tokenizer. We show that it can be seamlessly integrated as either a probing head for pretrained visual features (TrajAdapter) or an alignment connector in vision-language models (TrajVLM) with especially strong performance in long-video reasoning.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

MolmoMotion: Forecasting Point Trajectories in 3D with Language Instruction

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

STRIDE: Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM and dynamically projects its pooled hidden states as a continuous cross-modal prior into the numerical encoder. Jointly optimized via cross-entropy and quantile losses, STRIDE readily attaches to diverse architectures (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1). STRIDE ranks #1 on the GIFT-Eval leaderboard (0.625 MASE, 0.423 CRPS) when ensembled with Synapse. On TFRBench, STRIDE consistently outperforms baselines in both forecasting accuracy and reasoning quality, with ablations confirming gains stem from strategic reasoning. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while improving predictive accuracy.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

RubricEM: Meta-RL with Rubric-guided Policy Decomposition beyond Verifiable Rewards

Deep research agents plan, search, evaluate evidence, and synthesize long-form reports. Training these agents with reinforcement learning (RL) is challenging because they operate over long horizons and their outputs lack exact answer verifiers. To this end, we introduce RubricEM, a unified RL framework for deep research that combines stagewise credit assignment with reflection-based meta-RL for experience reuse. Rubrics unify the framework by providing a shared interface for policy execution, judge feedback, and experience reuse. RubricEM first instills a rubric-guided scaffold through supervised fine-tuning, teaching the agent to plan with rubrics and organize its trajectory into semantic stages. Building on this structural prior, we optimize the task policy with Stage-Structured GRPO, using stagewise judge feedback for finer-grained credit assignment. In parallel, we asynchronously train a shared-backbone reflection meta-policy (with meta-RL) to distill completed trajectories into reusable guidance, contributing through both shared-parameter updates and textual memory. The resulting RubricEM-8B model achieves strong performance across four long-form research benchmarks, outperforming existing open models of larger sizes and approaching proprietary deep-research systems. Beyond final performance, we perform thorough controlled analyses to understand the key ingredients of RubricEM.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Context-Aware Time Series Forecasting

Language models have emerged as highly capable reasoners, yet their performance in time series forecasting remains uneven across domains and levels of contextual grounding. This is primarily due to their suboptimal time series reasoning and numerical modeling capabilities. To tackle this, we introduce Nexus, a multimodal forecasting framework that bridges qualitative event reasoning with structural numerical modeling through principled statistical synthesis. Nexus follows three structured stages: (1) Temporal profiling and anchor generation, which distills the multimodal history into a timestamped causal-temporal profile and generates a forecast anchor (2) Dual contextual outlook generation, which produces decoupled macro and micro level forecast trajectories, and (3) Bayesian synthesis, which reconciles the forecasting anchor with both contextual forecast trajectories via closed-form Gaussian updating weighted by empirical error covariances. Evaluated across three diverse forecasting benchmarks constituting eight datasets spanning rich event contexts, abrupt shocks, and purely numerical series, Nexus consistently outperforms leading time-series foundation models and language model baselines, while providing interpretable causal reasoning.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

DuoDiscover: Scaling Autonomous Discovery Beyond the Evaluation Bottleneck

Evaluation has been central to advances in AI, and it is equally critical to autonomous discovery. Yet scaling autonomous discovery to real-world engineering challenges faces a fundamental bottleneck: the cost of evaluating progress. In real settings, a single true evaluation, such as a full benchmark or serving trace, can take hours, so a search can afford only a handful of true evaluations. We present DuoDiscover, a search system that jointly discovers what to optimize and how to evaluate progress efficiently, through three mechanisms. First, each worker in a fleet of coding agents co-discovers an optimization target and a fast, tailored proxy evaluator, which we call a yardstick. The agent then hill-climbs the yardstick rather than the true evaluation. Second, since search can exploit gaps between a yardstick and the true objective, fidelity tests continually recheck each yardstick's ranking and invalidate any that drift. Third, the fleet is bottom-up, with no central decomposition of the problem. A lightweight orchestrator spawns and terminates agents, briefs running ones, and seeds new agents with others' confirmed work. DuoDiscover enables autonomous optimization from software to chip architecture. We demonstrate DuoDiscover on two repository-level benchmarks and four GPU and TPU kernel suites covering hundreds of kernels. On SWE-fficiency, it doubles the average speedup of human experts. On SOL-Exec, it ranks first on 121 of 235 kernels and in the top three on 212. On the heavily optimized vLLM and SQLite engines, DuoDiscover achieves 1.92$\times$ and 1.38$\times$ gains over the base code. On a CPU microarchitecture optimization task with evaluations of up to 28 hours, DuoDiscover surpasses both AlphaEvolve-based ArchAgent v2 and the best human design, with 1.65$\times$ ArchAgent v2's gain in 16.7 days versus more than 40 days, advancing the frontier of autonomous chip design.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

SEER: Self-Evolving Event Reasoning and Retrieval for Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series are frequently driven by exogenous events and structural shifts, rendering conventional forecasting based solely on historical numerical observations insufficient. While language models can retrieve external news, standard retrieval-augmented approaches struggle with high noise, missing signals, and an inability to reason causally about event impacts. We propose SEER (Self-Evolving Event Reasoning and Retrieval), a closed-loop framework that dynamically optimizes event conditioning for time series forecasting. SEER translates prediction errors into two decoupled feedback mechanisms: (i) a reflective retrieval memory that refines subsequent search queries and filters spurious noise, and (ii) a persistent causal knowledge base that distills transferable domain dynamics. SEER enforces strict chronological boundaries across both event retrieval and reflection, preventing look-ahead bias and data leakage. Across six volatile time-series benchmarks, SEER consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time series foundation models and language model baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to real-world forecasting tasks, yet evaluating their true predictive capability remains compromised by pre-training data contamination and look-ahead leakage in automated search. Existing benchmarks either rely on static contexts, restrict evaluations to narrow environments, or fail to audit auxiliary textual events for future information leakage. To establish a rigorous evaluation paradigm, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including trend, event, and time series forecasting. LEAF couples a recursive retrieval agent system with dual-agent cross-validation to gather comprehensive, relevant, and temporally aligned auxiliary context. A comprehensive audit across 500 tasks by 47 domain specialists demonstrates that our pipeline suppresses future information leakage from 8.6% to 1.6%. Across extensive evaluations of 16 frontier proprietary and open-weight models on our benchmark, we show that LLMs effectively extract signals from verified events to boost trend and event forecasting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

AIM: Agentic Idea Management for Automated Research

Frontier LLMs are increasingly used to automate scientific research through iterative search. We distinguish idea-driven search from solution-driven search and identify three core challenges: organizing evolving research ideas, selecting promising directions, and maintaining alignment between ideas and their implementations. To address these challenges, we introduce the Agentic Idea Manager (AIM), a fully autonomous framework for managing and exploring research directions in idea-driven automated research. Inspired by Bayesian optimization, AIM uses an Agentic Surrogate and an Agentic Acquisition mechanism to organize discovered ideas and guide their selection. A Solution Auditor maintains idea-solution integrity, while a Resource Planner adaptively allocates the remaining experimental budget across parallel search branches. Experiments on 10 AutoLab benchmark tasks show that AIM surpasses the strongest baseline by 1.6 percentage points on System Optimization tasks and 4.9 percentage points on long-horizon Model Development & CUDA tasks. Notably, AIM reaches the best baseline performance up to 3.1x faster in wall-clock time. We further provide a theoretical analysis of when searching over ideas becomes beneficial. Our analysis shows that explicit idea-level allocation makes semantic coverage directly controllable, and that broader coverage becomes increasingly valuable when competitive research directions are sparse among many plausible alternatives. Project Page: https://imhgchoi.github.io/agentic-idea-manager/

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

PreviewDiff: Multimodal Critic-Guided Search over Diffusion Latents

Diffusion models can produce striking images and videos, but they still struggle with the compositional details that make a generation faithful to a prompt, such as object counts, attribute binding, spatial relations, and temporally grounded actions. A common way to improve prompt satisfaction is to spend more compute at test time through Best-of-N sampling, but final-sample selection is fixed. Best-of-N can only choose among completed outputs and cannot repair a promising trajectory before it fails. We introduce PreviewDiff, a training-free test-time search method that turns diffusion sampling from scalar search into a multimodal critic-guided search over intermediate latents. At selected denoising checkpoints, PreviewDiff decodes a partial preview, asks a multimodal judge to score and critique it, and uses the resulting natural-language feedback to branch over semantic prompt edits and locally re-noised latent continuations. These branches are then scored and selectively rolled forward, allowing verifier compute to guide generation while the sample is still editable. Across image and video generation benchmarks, PreviewDiff consistently improves over budget-matched Best-of-N selection and strong scalar-search baselines. Ablations show that earlier interventions and increased search width provide the largest gains, while deeper search and additional semantic variants offer complementary improvements. PreviewDiff demonstrates that multimodal feedback is most useful not only as a final verifier, but as an active controller inside the denoising process.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

LEAP: Supercharging LLMs for Formal Mathematics with Agentic Frameworks

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong informal mathematical reasoning but struggle to generate mechanically verifiable proofs in formal languages like Lean. We present LEAP, an agentic framework that enables general-purpose foundation models to achieve state-of-the-art performance on automated formal theorem proving. LEAP leverages foundation model capabilities, such as informal reasoning, instruction following, and iterative self-refinement. By decomposing complex problems into smaller units, the system bridges formal proof construction with informal blueprints through continuous interaction with the Lean compiler. To provide a rigorous evaluation beyond increasingly saturated benchmarks, we introduce Lean-IMO-Bench, a benchmark of IMO-style problems formalized in Lean, with short statements yet highly non-routine and multi-step proofs across a wide range of difficulty levels. Empirically, on the latest 2025 Putnam Competition, an annual mathematics competition for undergraduate students in North America, LEAP solves all 12 problems, matching recent breakthroughs by frontier formal mathematical models. On Lean-IMO-Bench, LEAP boosts the one-shot formal solve rate of general-purpose LLMs from below 10% to 70%, notably surpassing the 48% benchmark set by a specialized, gold-medal-caliber IMO system. Furthermore, we demonstrate LEAP's research-level utility by autonomously formalizing complex proofs for open combinatorial challenges, including a verified proof for a key subproblem in Knuth's Hamiltonian decomposition of even-order Cayley graphs.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

ScientistOne: Towards Human-Level Autonomous Research via Chain-of-Evidence

Autonomous research agents produce competitive solutions and professional-looking manuscripts, yet their outputs contain verifiability failures undetectable by surface-level evaluation: fabricated citations, unreproducible scores, and method descriptions that diverge from the implementation. We address this through three contributions. First, Chain-of-Evidence (CoE), a verifiability framework requiring every claim to be traceable to its evidence source. Second, ScientistOne, an end-to-end autonomous research system that maintains evidence chains by construction throughout literature review, solution discovery, and paper writing. Third, CoE Audit, a post-hoc audit whose four integrity checks -- score verification, specification violation, reference verification, and method-code alignment -- apply uniformly to all systems. Across 75 papers spanning five systems and five frontier research tasks, every baseline exhibits at least one systematic failure mode: hallucinated reference rates reach 21%, score verification passes in as few as 42% of papers, and method-code alignment ranges from 20% to 80%. ScientistOne achieves zero hallucinated references (0/337), perfect score verification (12/12), and the highest method-code alignment (14/15), while matching or exceeding human expert performance on all five tasks. ScientistOne further generalizes to six additional tasks spanning medical imaging, fine-grained recognition, 3D perception, and language modeling, achieving state-of-the-art on Parameter Golf and gold medals on MLE-Bench tasks where baselines fail entirely.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Inductive Deductive Synthesis: Enabling AI to Generate Formally Verified Systems

AI agents increasingly excel at generating, testing, and refining code. However, they fall short on tasks requiring formal guarantees of full coverage that testing alone cannot provide. Distributed systems are a prime example: properties such as consistency between reads and writes must hold under every possible interleaving of events. Mechanized formal verification can guarantee such correctness, but typically demands months to years of expert effort. As evidence, even SOTA coding agents (Codex with GPT-5.4 and Claude Code with Opus 4.6) succeed on only 2/7 distributed key-value-store specifications. In this paper, we present the first effective approach to addressing this gap, Inductive Deductive Synthesis (IDS), which jointly and incrementally synthesizes implementation and proof, and learns from failed attempts to systematically try promising strategies. Built as an agentic LLM system, IDS achieves 7/7 in about 6.8 hours and $106 per spec on average, roughly 200x faster than expert effort and 17% cheaper than SOTA agents. IDS further incorporates performance feedback into the same loop, yielding implementations up to 3x faster than published verified systems.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

SkillOS: Learning Skill Curation for Self-Evolving Agents

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed to handle streaming tasks, yet they often remain one-off problem solvers that fail to learn from past interactions. Reusable skills distilled from experience provide a natural substrate for self-evolution, where high-quality skill curation serves as the key bottleneck. Existing approaches either rely on manual skill curation, prescribe heuristic skill operations, or train for short-horizon skill operations. However, they still struggle to learn complex long-term curation policies from indirect and delayed feedback. To tackle this challenge, we propose SkillOS, an experience-driven RL training recipe for learning skill curation in self-evolving agents. SkillOS pairs a frozen agent executor that retrieves and applies skills with a trainable skill curator that updates an external SkillRepo from accumulated experience. To provide learning signals for curation, we design composite rewards and train on grouped task streams based on skill-relevant task dependencies, where earlier trajectories update the SkillRepo, and later related tasks evaluate these updates. Across multi-turn agentic tasks and single-turn reasoning tasks, SkillOS consistently outperforms memory-free and strong memory-based baselines in both effectiveness and efficiency, with the learned skill curator generalizing across different executor backbones and task domains. Further analyses show that the learned curator produces more targeted skill use, while the skills in SkillRepo evolve into more richly structured Markdown files that encode higher-level meta-skills over time.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

VSAS-Bench: Real-Time Evaluation of Visual Streaming Assistant Models

Streaming vision-language models (VLMs) continuously generate responses given an instruction prompt and an online stream of input frames. This is a core mechanism for real-time visual assistants. Existing VLM frameworks predominantly assess models in offline settings. In contrast, the performance of a streaming VLM depends on additional metrics beyond pure video understanding, including proactiveness, which reflects the timeliness of the model's responses, and consistency, which captures the robustness of its responses over time. To address this limitation, we propose VSAS-Bench, a new framework and benchmark for Visual Streaming Assistants. In contrast to prior benchmarks that primarily employ single-turn question answering on video inputs, VSAS-Bench features temporally dense annotations with over 18,000 annotations across diverse input domains and task types. We introduce standardized synchronous and asynchronous evaluation protocols, along with metrics that isolate and measure distinct capabilities of streaming VLMs. Using this framework, we conduct large-scale evaluations of recent video and streaming VLMs, analyzing the accuracy-latency trade-off under key design factors such as memory buffer length, memory access policy, and input resolution, yielding several practical insights. Finally, we show empirically that conventional VLMs can be adapted to streaming settings without additional training, and demonstrate that these adapted models outperform recent streaming VLMs. For example, Qwen3-VL-4B surpasses Dispider, the best streaming VLM on our benchmark, by 3% under the asynchronous protocol. The benchmark and code will be available at https://github.com/apple/ml-vsas-bench.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

TFRBench: A Reasoning Benchmark for Evaluating Forecasting Systems

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. $\sim40.2\%\to56.6\%)$, validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

cs.AI↗