arXiv subjects

Chung-Pei Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Chung-Pei Ma.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data.

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arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background.

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arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

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arXiv2025

A 22-Billion Solar Mass Black Hole in Holmberg 15A with Keck KCWI Spectroscopy and Triaxial Orbit Modeling

Holmberg 15A (H15A), the brightest cluster galaxy of Abell 85, has an exceptionally low central surface brightness even among local massive elliptical galaxies with distinct stellar cores, making it exceedingly challenging to obtain high-quality spectroscopy to detect a supermassive black hole (SMBH) at its center. Aided by the superb sensitivity and efficiency of KCWI at the Keck II Telescope, we have obtained spatially resolved stellar kinematics over a ${\sim}100''\times 100''$ contiguous field of H15A for this purpose. The velocity field exhibits a low amplitude (${\sim}20\mathrm{~km~s}^{-1}$) rotation along a kinematic axis that is prominently misaligned from the photometric major axis, a strong indicator that H15A is triaxially shaped with unequal lengths for the three principal axes. Using 2500 observed kinematic constraints, we perform extensive calculations of stellar orbits with the triaxial Schwarzschild code, TriOS, and search over ${\sim}$40,000 galaxy models to simultaneously determine the mass and intrinsic 3D shape parameters of H15A. We determine a ratio of $p=0.89$ for the middle-to-long principal axes and $q=0.65$ for the short-to-long principal axes. Our best estimate of the SMBH mass, $M_\mathrm{BH}=(2.16^{+0.23}_{-0.18})\times 10^{10}M_{\odot}$, makes H15A -- along with NGC 4889 -- the galaxies hosting the most massive SMBHs known in the local universe. Both SMBHs lie significantly above the mean $M_\mathrm{BH}-σ$ scaling relation. Repeating the orbit modeling with the axisymmetrized version of TriOS produces worse fits to the KCWI kinematics and increases $M_\mathrm{BH}$ to $(2.55\pm 0.20) \times 10^{10}M_{\odot}$, which is still significantly below $M_\mathrm{BH}=(4.0\pm 0.8) \times 10^{10}M_{\odot}$ reported in a prior axisymmetric study of H15A.

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arXiv2024

Identifying Host Galaxies of Supermassive Black Hole Binaries Found by PTAs

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) present us with exciting opportunities for multi-messenger science. These systems are thought to form naturally in galaxy mergers and therefore have the potential to produce electromagnetic (EM) radiation as well as gravitational waves (GWs) detectable with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). Once GWs from individually resolved SMBHBs are detected, the identification of the host galaxy will be a major challenge due to the ambiguity in possible EM signatures and the poor localization capability of PTAs. In order to aid EM observations in choosing which sources to follow up, we attempt to quantify the number of plausible hosts in both realistic and idealistic scenarios. We outline a host galaxy identification pipeline that injects a single-source GW signal into a simulated PTA dataset, uses production-level techniques to recover the signal, quantifies the localization region and number of galaxies contained therein, and finally imposes cuts on the galaxies using the binary parameters estimated from the GW search. In an ideal case, we find that the 90% credible areas span 29 deg^2 to 241 deg^2, containing about 14 to 341 galaxies. After cuts, the number of galaxies remaining ranges from 22 at worst to 1 (the true host) at best. In a more realistic case, if the signal is sufficiently localized, the sky areas range from 287 deg^2 to 530 deg^2 and enclose about 285 to 1238 galaxies. After cuts, the number of galaxies is 397 at worst and 27 at best. While the signal-to-noise ratio is the primary determinant of the localization area of a given source, we find that the size of the area is also influenced by the proximity of nearby pulsars on the sky and the chirp mass of the source.

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arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

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arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 σ- 1.9 σ$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 σ- 2.1 σ$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe.

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arXiv2024

Big Galaxies and Big Black Holes: The Massive Ends of the Local Stellar and Black Hole Mass Functions and the Implications for Nanohertz Gravitational Waves

We construct the $z=0$ galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) by combining the GSMF at stellar masses $M_* \lesssim 10^{11.3} M_\odot$ from the census study of Leja et al. (2020) and the GSMF of massive galaxies at $M_* \gtrsim 10^{11.5} M_\odot$ from the volume-limited MASSIVE galaxy survey. To obtain a robust estimate of $M_*$ for local massive galaxies, we use MASSIVE galaxies with $M_*$ measured from detailed dynamical modeling or stellar population synthesis modeling (incorporating a bottom-heavy initial mass function) with high-quality spatially-resolved spectroscopy. These two independent sets of $M_*$ agree to within ${\sim}7$%. Our new $z=0$ GSMF has a higher amplitude at $M_* \gtrsim 10^{11.5} M_\odot$ than previous studies, alleviating prior concerns of a lack of mass growth in massive galaxies between $z\sim 1$ and 0. We derive a local black hole mass function (BHMF) from this GSMF and the scaling relation of SMBH and galaxy masses. The inferred abundance of local SMBHs above $\sim 10^{10}M_\odot$ is consistent with the number of currently known systems. The predicted amplitude of the nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background is also consistent with the levels reported by Pulsar Timing Array teams. Our $z = 0$ GSMF therefore leads to concordant results in the high-mass regime of the local galaxy and SMBH populations and the gravitational wave amplitude from merging SMBHs. An exception is our BHMF yields a $z=0$ SMBH mass density that is notably higher than the value estimated from quasars at higher redshifts.

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arXiv2024

The Black Hole Explorer: Motivation and Vision

We present the Black Hole Explorer (BHEX), a mission that will produce the sharpest images in the history of astronomy by extending submillimeter Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) to space. BHEX will discover and measure the bright and narrow "photon ring" that is predicted to exist in images of black holes, produced from light that has orbited the black hole before escaping. This discovery will expose universal features of a black hole's spacetime that are distinct from the complex astrophysics of the emitting plasma, allowing the first direct measurements of a supermassive black hole's spin. In addition to studying the properties of the nearby supermassive black holes M87* and Sgr A*, BHEX will measure the properties of dozens of additional supermassive black holes, providing crucial insights into the processes that drive their creation and growth. BHEX will also connect these supermassive black holes to their relativistic jets, elucidating the power source for the brightest and most efficient engines in the universe. BHEX will address fundamental open questions in the physics and astrophysics of black holes that cannot be answered without submillimeter space VLBI. The mission is enabled by recent technological breakthroughs, including the development of ultra-high-speed downlink using laser communications, and it leverages billions of dollars of existing ground infrastructure. We present the motivation for BHEX, its science goals and associated requirements, and the pathway to launch within the next decade.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

The MASSIVE survey -- XIX. Molecular gas measurements of the supermassive black hole masses in the elliptical galaxies NGC 1684 and NGC 0997

Supermassive black hole (SMBH) masses can be measured by observing their dynamical effects on tracers, such as molecular gas. We present high angular resolution Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations of the $^{12}$CO(2-1) line emission of the early-type galaxies (ETGs) NGC 1684 and NGC 0997, obtained as part of the MASSIVE survey, a volume-limited integral-field spectroscopic study of the most massive local ETGs. NGC 1684 has a regularly-rotating central molecular gas disc, with a spatial extent of $\approx 6 "$ ($\approx1.8$ kpc) in radius and a central hole slightly larger than the expected SMBH sphere of influence. We forward model the data cube in a Bayesian framework with the Kinematic Molecular Simulation (KinMS) code and infer a SMBH mass of $1.40^{+0.44}_{-0.39}\times10^9$ M$_\odot$ ($3σ$ confidence interval) and a F110W-filter stellar mass-to-light ratio of $(2.50\pm0.05)$ M$_\odot/\text{L}_{\odot,\text{F110W}}$. NGC 0997 has a regularly-rotating central molecular gas disc, with a spatial extent of $\approx5 "$ ($\approx2.2$ kpc) in radius and a partially-filled central hole much larger than the expected SMBH sphere of influence, thus preventing a robust SMBH mass determination. With the same modelling method, we nevertheless constrain the SMBH mass to be in the range $4.0\times10^7$ to $1.8\times10^9$ M$_\odot$ and the F160W-filter stellar mass-to-light ratio to be $(1.52\pm0.11)$ M$_\odot/\text{L}_{\odot,\text{F160W}}$. Both SMBH masses are consistent with the SMBH mass -- stellar velocity dispersion ($M_{\text{BH}}$ -- $σ_\text{e}$) relation, suggesting that the over-massive SMBHs present in other very massive ETGs are fairly uncommon.

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arXiv2024

TriOS Schwarzschild Orbit Modeling: Robustness of Parameter Inference for Masses and Shapes of Triaxial Galaxies with Supermassive Black Holes

Evidence for the majority of the supermassive black holes in the local universe has been obtained dynamically from stellar motions with the Schwarzschild orbit superposition method. However, there have been only a handful of studies using simulated data to examine the ability of this method to reliably recover known input black hole masses $M_{BH}$ and other galaxy parameters. Here we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the reliability of the triaxial Schwarzschild method at $\textit{simultaneously}$ determining $M_{BH}$, stellar mass-to-light ratio $M^{*}/L$, dark matter mass, and three intrinsic triaxial shape parameters of simulated galaxies. For each of 25 rounds of mock observations using simulated stellar kinematics and the $\texttt{TriOS}$ code, we derive best-fitting parameters and confidence intervals after a full search in the 6D parameter space with our likelihood-based model inference scheme. The two key mass parameters, $M_{BH}$ and $M^{*}/L$, are recovered within the 68% confidence interval, and other parameters are recovered between 68% and 95% confidence intervals. The spatially varying velocity anisotropy of the stellar orbits is also well recovered. We explore whether the goodness-of-fit measure used for galaxy model selection in our pipeline is biased by variable complexity across the 6D parameter space. In our tests, adding a penalty term to the likelihood measure either makes little difference, or worsens the recovery in some cases.

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arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: A computationally efficient eccentric binary search pipeline and constraints on an eccentric supermassive binary candidate in 3C 66B

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $η>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $η>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations.

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arXiv2023

How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Background

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year data set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-Wave Background

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

The MASSIVE Survey. XVIII. Deep Wide-Field $K$-band Photometry and Local Scaling Relations for Massive Early-Type Galaxies

We present wide-field, deep $K$-band photometry of 98 luminous early-type galaxies (ETGs) from the MASSIVE survey based on observations taken with the WIRCam instrument on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Using these images, we extract accurate total $K$-band luminosities ($L_K$) and half-light radii ($R_e$) for this sample of galaxies. We use these new values to explore the size-luminosity and Faber-Jackson relations for massive ETGs. Within this volume-limited sample, we find clear evidence for curvature in both relations, indicating that the most luminous galaxies tend to have larger sizes and smaller velocity dispersions than expected from a simple power-law fit to less luminous galaxies. Our measured relations are qualitatively consistent with the most massive elliptical galaxies forming largely through dissipationless mergers. When the sample is separated into fast and slow rotators, we find the slow rotators to exhibit similar changes in slope with increasing $L_K$, suggesting that low-mass and high-mass slow rotators have different formation histories. The curvatures in the $R_e-L_K$ and $σ-L_K$ relations cancel, leading to a relation between dynamical mass and luminosity that is well described by a single power-law: $R_eσ^2 \propto {L_K}^b$ with $b \approx 1.2$. This is consistent with the tilt of the fundamental plane observed in lower mass elliptical galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations.

astro-ph.HE↗