arXiv subjects

Chung-Pei Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Chung-Pei Ma.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Analytical Estimates of Gravitational Wave Background Anisotropies from Shot Noise and Large-Scale Structure in Pulsar Timing Arrays

An important next step for pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) is to measure anisotropies in the gravitational wave background (GWB) at $\sim$ nano-Hz frequencies. We calculate the expected GWB anisotropies using empirically calibrated models for the merger rates of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). The anisotropies reflect both shot-noise in the discrete SMBHB populations while also tracing, in part, the large-scale structure (LSS) of the universe. The shot-noise term is sensitive to the high-mass end of the merging SMBH mass function, depends somewhat on the low-redshift tail of the merger distribution, and is a strong function of observing frequency. The precise frequency dependence provides a test of SMBHB residence times. In our models, the mean shot-noise anisotropy typically lies close to or above the broad frequency-band NANOGrav upper limits. Consequently, near-future PTA data, and potentially re-analyses of existing measurements using frequency-dependent shot-noise anisotropy templates, should be capable of detecting this signal or placing meaningful constraints on SMBHB merger models. A full interpretation, however, will require modeling the probability distribution of shot-noise amplitudes rather than relying solely on ensemble-averaged predictions. The LSS-induced anisotropies are at least two to three orders of magnitude smaller. Although the LSS contribution contains valuable information regarding the redshift distribution and clustering bias of the merging SMBHBs, detecting this component will be challenging.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Pulsar Timing Array Sensitivity to Anisotropy: Empirical Sensitivity Curves, Scaling Relations, and the Multi-Resolution Pixel Basis

We quantify pulsar timing array (PTA) sensitivity to anisotropy in the gravitational wave background using the cross-correlation based Fisher information matrix in the pixel and spherical harmonic bases. We use a set of simulations to empirically determine scaling relations of a PTA's sensitivity to anisotropy with the number of pulsars $N_\mathrm{psr}$ in the array, the error $δt$ on the times of arrival, the frequency $f_\mathrm{GW}$ of the gravitational waves, and the angular scale $ΔΩ$ of the anisotropy. The sensitivity scales approximately as $N_\mathrm{psr}^{0.8}$, $δt^{-0.08}$, and $ΔΩ^{1.6}-ΔΩ^{2.1}$ (depending on the ranges of $\ell$ and $m$ under consideration). In addition, we use realistic simulations to project the NANOGrav PTA sensitivity to a 30-year baseline and quantify the growth in sensitivity at several timeslices. Except at the lowest frequencies, we find negligible effect on sensitivity through increasing the observation duration only. Finally, we introduce a multi-resolution pixel basis motivated by the large dependence of the sensitivity on sky location, and demonstrate the operation of the basis through a set of injections and recoveries.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Realization Variance of Gravitational Wave Background Anisotropies from Shot Noise for Pulsar Timing Arrays

Shot-noise anisotropies in the nHz gravitational wave background (GWB) are a promising target for pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). If the nHz GWB is sourced by merging supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), as current evidence suggests, the shot-noise signal is expected to be large, potentially of order unity at observing frequencies of $f \sim 1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. In this regime, the signal is dominated by rare bright binaries, and Poisson fluctuations in the discrete SMBHB population produce significant spatial anisotropies. Here, we use Monte Carlo simulations to model the realization-to-realization scatter in the shot-noise, sampling from empirically calibrated models of the SMBHB source populations. We find that the probability distribution of shot-noise amplitudes is broad, spanning a factor of $\sim 50$ (95\% interval) at fixed frequency, with a long tail towards high amplitudes. The most probable and median amplitudes lie significantly below the ensemble means by factors of $\sim 2-3$, implying that the shot-noise in typical realizations is smaller than the mean. The ensemble-averaged shot-noise also differs from simple estimates based on moments of the strain, $\langle h^4 \rangle/\langle h^2 \rangle^2$, because the average of a ratio is not equal to the ratio of the averages (i.e., $\langle X/Y \rangle \ne \langle X \rangle/\langle Y \rangle$). This difference is a factor of $\sim 3$ at $f = 0.1 \, \rm{yr}^{-1}$, growing to larger than two orders of magnitude by $f \sim 1 \, \rm{yr}^{-1}$, where the GWB is dominated by low abundance, high-strain sources. Shot-noise nevertheless provides a powerful diagnostic for understanding the GWB and SMBHB populations; interpreting PTA measurements, however, requires modeling its full probability distribution.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Impacts of Customized Chromatic Noise Models on Gravitational Wave Analyses

We report updated nHz gravitational wave (GW) significance, characterization, and interpretations using the customized chromatic-noise models (CNMs) developed in Larsen, Baier et al. (2026). for the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find increased evidence for the Hellings-Downs (HD) correlation signature of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), with a Bayes factor of $1571\pm14$ for HD-correlations over a common uncorrelated red-noise process using a power-law model with $14$ Fourier modes. We find this $\sim8\times$ increase in Bayes factor from Agazie et al. (2023a) is a result of improved noise mitigation. Assuming an analytic null distribution for the frequentist interpulsar correlation statistic, this corresponds to a slightly more significant measurement from $3.16σ$ to $3.32σ$ against the no-correlation scenario. Spectral inference with CNMs brings the power-law GWB amplitude down to $A_{\rm GWB} = 2.1^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\times10^{-15}$ at fixed $γ_{\rm GWB} = 13/3$. In a varied-$γ$ analysis, the spectral index increases to $γ_{\rm GWB}=3.5^{+0.7}_{-0.6}$. We report updates on an all-sky continuous gravitational wave (CW) search as well as select targeted searches and calculate a $3.2\times$ larger detection volume for the NANOGrav detector. With CNMs, we find reduced evidence for a non-Einsteinian, scalar-transverse mode of gravity. Finally, we reinterpret the GWB first with the assumption of an astrophysical background sourced by SMBHBs and then assuming the more exotic origins of cosmic inflation, a first-order cosmological phase transition, and stable cosmic strings. Under both the SMBHB hypothesis and the cosmological hypotheses, we see only marginal shifts in model parameter posteriors which are consistent with the slightly quieter and steeper power-law GWB spectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The MASSIVE SURVEY XXI: Local Variations in the Stellar Initial Mass Function of MASSIVE Early-Type Galaxies

Extensive evidence suggests that the stellar initial mass function (IMF) varies among early-type galaxies (ETGs), but spatially resolved studies within individual galaxies are limited in sample size. We investigate radial variations in the low-mass ($\leq1M_{\odot}$) IMF and its connection to stellar populations in 37 nearby massive ETGs from the MASSIVE survey. Using high-quality Magellan/LDSS-3 long-slit spectroscopy spanning $0.4μ$m$-1.01μ$m, we extract spectra in radial bins reaching outermost radii of 0.2-1.1Re across the sample. We find that the IMF becomes less bottom-heavy with increasing radius in most galaxies. The sample-averaged IMF mismatch parameter, $α_{\rm IMF}=(M/L)/(M/L)_{\rm Kroupa}$, decreases from 2.16 within Re/8 to 1.74 in the Re/4-Re/2 bin, with galaxy-to-galaxy scatters of 0.50 and 0.42, respectively. Thus, the average IMF remains more bottom-heavy than Kroupa and approximately Salpeter-like or more bottom-heavy over these radii. The radial gradients of $\log(α_{\rm IMF})$ anti-correlate with the central value of $α_{\rm IMF}$, indicating that galaxies with more bottom-heavy central IMFs decline more steeply toward less bottom-heavy, approximately Salpeter-like values at larger radii. We find mild positive local correlations between $α_{\rm IMF}$ and stellar metallicity, but no significant local correlation with [Mg/Fe] or [Na/Fe]. Together with the approximately flat profiles of several [$α$/Fe], this suggests that IMF variation in massive ETGs is more closely linked to metallicity than to the star-formation timescale traced by [$α$/Fe]. Finally, the radial variation in stellar $M/L_r$ is dominated by the IMF gradient rather than by the stellar-population gradient. A fixed Kroupa IMF underestimates stellar masses by factors of 1.7 and 1.5 within Re/2 and Re in massive ETGs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational Wave Measurement of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ Intrinsic Scatter at High Redshift

The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$) on models of the nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches local observations, we find that the amplitude of GWB models increases to be consistent with the low-frequency end of the GWB spectrum. This amplitude increase is not uniform across frequencies, a strongly evolving scatter preferentially increases the number density of the most massive SMBHs which, in the GWB spectrum, minimizes the strength of the low-frequency turnover. Our models with positively evolving intrinsic scatter can reproduce the electromagnetically observed overmassive SMBHs at $4 < z < 6$ without changing the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ normalization though we find that including moderate normalization evolution marginally improves fits to the GWB data. We conclude that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation which best describes the available GWB and electromagnetic data sets has intrinsic scatter that evolves as $\varepsilon(z) = \varepsilon_0 + (0.56 \pm 0.4) \log_{10}(1 + z)$ and normalization that evolves as $α(z) = α_0 (1 + z)^{0.84 \pm 0.35}$. The results of this work imply that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation we see today is not universal throughout cosmic time and that a diversity of seeding models and growth mechanisms may be at play in the early stages of SMBH-galaxy evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Prospects of resolving and localising individual supermassive black hole binaries with pulsar timing arrays: the host ranking challenge

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) are soon expected to detect individually resolved supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, opening the possibility for multi-messenger discoveries. The biggest challenge will be to pinpoint the host galaxy in a large localisation area. We simulate realistic binary populations consistent with the gravitational wave (GW) background, projecting the PTA sensitivity for the next 0-10 years. We inject the loudest binary on top of the background and use one of the standard detection pipelines to constrain its properties. We cross-match the localisation areas with comprehensive all-sky galaxy catalogues and estimate the number of candidate hosts in the localisation area assessing, for the first time, the number of missing galaxies due to incomplete coverage. We develop a ranking system that excludes galaxies with properties inconsistent with the GW posteriors, and prioritizes the remaining galaxies for follow-up observations. We find a $\approx$21, $\approx$38 and $\approx$51 percent probability of resolving a binary in the next 0, 5 and 10 years, respectively, reduced to 0.3, 3.8 and 14.1 percent if we require potentially well-constrained localisation areas. The localisation areas span hundreds of square degrees, but shrink significantly with the addition of more data. They contain on average $\approx$190,000 early type galaxies and $\approx$40,000 active galactic nuclei, with $\approx$25,000 missing candidate hosts. Our ranking method can exclude about half of the potential hosts and efficiently rank those remaining when the galaxy catalogue provides SMBH masses and redshifts, but becomes more inefficient when we rely on apparent magnitudes.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Expectations for the first supermassive black-hole binary resolved by PTAs I: Model efficacy

One of the most promising targets for Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) is identifying an individual supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) out of the population of binaries theorized to produce a gravitational wave background (GWB). In this work, we emulate realistic PTA datasets, complete with an increasing number of pulsars and timing baseline, in which we inject a single binary on top of a Gaussian GWB. We vary the binary's source parameters, including sky position and frequency, and create ten noise realizations for each source/PTA combination to synthesize an ensemble of datasets to assess current Bayesian binary search techniques. We develop a novel, cross-correlation based model, Spike Pixel (SP), tuned for the frequency-specific anisotropy induced by an individual SMBHB and compare its binary detection and characterization capabilities to two waveform-based template models. We find that a template-based search including the full gravitational-wave signal structure (i.e., both the Earth and pulsar effects of an incident GW) returns the highest Bayes Factors (BF) and the most robust parameter estimation. SP attains a realization-median BF>10 at source strengths (S/N)~7-15. Interestingly, despite being a deterministic model, the Earth-term template struggles to identify and characterize low-frequency binaries (i.e., 5 nHz). These binaries require higher source strengths (S/N)~16-19 to reach the same BF threshold. This is likely due to neglected confusion effects between the pulsar and Earth terms. By contrast, SP shows promise for parameter estimation despite treating a binary's GW signal as excess directional GW power without phase modeling. Sky location and frequency parameter constraints returned by SP are only surpassed by the Earth term template model at (S/N)~12-13. Milestones for a first detection using the full-signal GW model are included in a companion paper Petrov et al. 2026.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

JWST and Keck observations of the off-nuclear tidal disruption event TDE 2025abcr: An evolving reprocessing layer

Off-nuclear tidal disruption events (TDEs) provide a rare probe of massive black holes (MBHs) outside galactic nuclei. Only a handful are known, including five X-ray-selected candidates and two optically selected events. We present observations of TDE 2025abcr, the second optically selected off-nuclear TDE, discovered at a projected offset of $9.08 \pm 0.02$ kpc from the nucleus of its host galaxy. We analyze X-ray, UV, optical, and infrared (IR) data from Swift, Keck, ZTF, and JWST. Broad H and He emission lines in the optical and IR confirm a TDE-H-He classification. From luminosity scaling relations and MOSFiT modeling, we infer a BH mass of $10^{6}$-$10^{7}\,M_{\odot}$, substantially smaller than the $10^{8.35 \pm 0.41}\,M_{\odot}$ BH inferred for the host-galaxy nucleus. We observe velocity evolution in the N III + He II emission complex, shifting from $-500$ km s$^{-1}$ at day $-7$ to $+1000$ km s$^{-1}$ by day $+29$, which we interpret as radiative transfer effects in an evolving reprocessing layer. The IR SED deviates from a thermal blackbody, with $νL_ν \propto λ^{-2.13 \pm 0.04}$, significantly shallower than the Rayleigh-Jeans slope of $λ^{-3}$. We rule out dust as the source of this IR excess. Two possibilities remain: free-free emission from reprocessing gas, or an unresolved stellar cluster at the TDE location. Reprocessed emission provides a natural explanation for the IR excess but an underlying stellar cluster of mass $\log(M_{*}/M_{\odot}) = 7.57 \pm 0.02$ and age $<$2 Gyr is also consistent with the data. If interpreted as a stellar cluster, the inferred mass suggests a stripped remnant of a satellite galaxy. The wandering MBH most likely originated in a minor merger with a smaller galaxy, although dynamical ejection from the host nucleus cannot yet be ruled out.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Expectations for the first supermassive black-hole binary resolved by PTAs II: Milestones for binary characterization

Following the recent evidence for a gravitational wave (GW) background found by pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments, the next major science milestone is resolving individual supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). The detection of these systems could arise via searches using a power-based GW anisotropy model or a deterministic template model. In Schult et al. 2025, we compared the efficacy of these models in constraining the GW signal from a single SMBHB using realistic, near-future PTA datasets, and found that the full-signal deterministic continuous wave (CW) search may achieve detection and characterization first. Here, we continue our analyses using only the CW model given its better performance, focusing now on characterization milestones. We examine the order in which CW parameters are constrained as PTA data are accumulated and the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) grows. We also study how these parameter constraints vary across sources of different sky locations and GW frequencies. We find that the GW frequency and strain are generally constrained at the same time (or S/N), closely followed by the sky location, and later the chirp mass (if the source is highly evolving) and inclination angle. At fixed S/N, sources at higher frequencies generally achieve better precision on the GW frequency, chirp mass, and sky location. The time (and S/N) at which the signal becomes constrained is dependent on the sky location and frequency of the source, with the effects of pulsar terms and PTA geometry playing crucial roles in source detection and localization.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Piecewise Power-Law Reconstruction of the Gravitational-Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data set provides evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) signal at nanohertz frequencies, which is expected to originate either from a cosmic population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries or new particle physics in the early Universe. A firm identification of the source of the NG15 signal requires an accurate reconstruction of its frequency spectrum. In this paper, we provide such a spectral characterization of the NG15 signal based on a piecewise power-law (PPL) ansatz that strikes a balance between existing alternatives in the literature. Our PPL reconstruction is more flexible than the standard constant-power-law model, which describes the GWB spectrum in terms of only two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index gamma. Concurrently, it better approximates physically realistic GWB spectra -- especially those of cosmological origin -- than the free spectral model, since the latter allows for arbitrary variations in the GWB amplitude from one frequency bin to the next. Our PPL reconstruction of the NG15 signal relies on individual PPL models with a fixed number of internal nodes (i.e., constant power law, broken power law, doubly broken power law, etc.) that are ultimately combined in a Bayesian model average. The data products resulting from our analysis provide the basis for fast refits of spectral GWB models.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Mapping the Stellar Kinematics in the Central 240 Parsecs of M87 with the James Webb Space Telescope

The supermassive black hole (SMBH) in the giant elliptical galaxy M87 is one of the most well-studied in the local universe, but the stellar- and gas-dynamical SMBH mass measurements disagree. As this galaxy is a key anchor for the upper end of the SMBH mass$-$host galaxy relations, we revisit the central $3''\times 3''$ ($\sim 240\times240$ pc) region of M87 with the Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) integral field unit (IFU) on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We implement several improvements to the reduction pipeline and obtain high signal-to-noise spectra ($S/N \sim 150$) in single $0.''05 $ spaxels across much of the NIRSpec field of view. We measure the detailed shape of the stellar line-of-sight velocity distribution, parameterized by Gauss-Hermite moments up to $h_8$, in $\sim 2800$ spatial bins, substantially improving upon the prior high angular resolution studies of the M87 stellar kinematics. The NIRSpec data reveal velocities with $V \sim \pm 45$ km s$^{-1}$, velocity dispersions that rise sharply to $\sim$$420$ km s$^{-1}$ at a projected radius of 0.$''$45 (36 pc), and a slight elevation in $h_4$ toward the nucleus. We comprehensively test the robustness of the kinematics, including using multiple velocity template libraries and adopting different polynomials to adjust the template spectra. We find that the NIRSpec stellar kinematics seamlessly transition to recently measured large-scale stellar kinematics from optical Keck Cosmic Web Imager (KCWI) IFU data. These combined NIRSpec and KCWI kinematics provide continuous coverage from parsec to kiloparsec scales and will critically constrain future stellar-dynamical models of M87.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The MASSIVE Survey. XX. A Triaxial Stellar Dynamical Measurement of the Supermassive Black Hole Mass and Intrinsic Galaxy Shape of Giant Radio Galaxy NGC 315

We present a new dynamical measurement of the supermassive black hole mass and intrinsic shape of the stellar halo of the massive radio galaxy NGC 315 as part of the MASSIVE survey. High signal-to-noise ratio spectra from integral-field spectrographs at the Gemini and McDonald Observatories provide stellar kinematic measurements in $304$ spatial bins from the central ${\sim}0.3''$ out to $30''$. Using ${\sim} 2300$ kinematic constraints, we perform triaxial stellar orbit modeling with the TriOS code and search over ${\sim}$15,000 galaxy models with a Bayesian scheme to simultaneously measure six mass and intrinsic shape parameters. NGC 315 is triaxial and highly prolate, with middle-to-long and short-to-long axis ratios of $p=0.854$ and $q=0.833$ and a triaxiality parameter of $T=0.89$. The black hole mass inferred from our stellar kinematics is $M_\mathrm{BH} = \left(3.0 {\pm} 0.3\right) {\times} 10^{9}\ M_\odot$, which is higher than $M_\mathrm{BH}=(1.96^{+0.30}_{-0.13}) {\times} 10^{9} M_\odot$ inferred from CO kinematics (scaled to our distance). When the seven galaxies with $M_\mathrm{BH}$ measurements from both stellar and CO kinematics are compared, we find an intrinsic scatter of 0.28 dex in $M_\mathrm{BH}$ from the two tracers and do not detect statistically significant biases between the two methods in the current data. The implied black hole shadow size (${\approx} 4.7\, μ{\rm as}$) and the relatively high millimeter flux of NGC 315 makes this galaxy a prime candidate for future horizon-size imaging studies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data.

astro-ph.HE↗