arXiv subjects

Cláudia Soares

Publications and source records attributed to Cláudia Soares.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Statistical Learning of Conjunction Data Messages Through a Bayesian Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process

Current approaches for collision avoidance and space traffic management face many challenges, mainly due to the continuous increase in the number of objects in orbit and the lack of scalable and automated solutions. To avoid catastrophic incidents, satellite owners/operators must be aware of their assets' collision risk to decide whether a collision avoidance manoeuvre needs to be performed. This process is typically executed through the use of warnings issued in the form of CDMs which contain information about the event, such as the expected TCA and the probability of collision. Our previous work presented a statistical learning model that allowed us to answer two important questions: (1) Will any new conjunctions be issued in the next specified time interval? (2) When and with what uncertainty will the next CDM arrive? However, the model was based on an empirical Bayes homogeneous Poisson process, which assumes that the arrival rates of CDMs are constant over time. In fact, the rate at which the CDMs are issued depends on the behaviour of the objects as well as on the screening process performed by third parties. Thus, in this work, we extend the previous study and propose a Bayesian non-homogeneous Poisson process implemented with high precision using a Probabilistic Programming Language to fully describe the underlying phenomena. We compare the proposed solution with a baseline model to demonstrate the added value of our approach. The results show that this problem can be successfully modelled by our Bayesian non-homogeneous Poisson Process with greater accuracy, contributing to the development of automated collision avoidance systems and helping operators react timely but sparingly with satellite manoeuvres.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Taxonomy for Resident Space Objects in LEO: A Deep Learning Approach

The increasing number of RSOs has raised concerns about the risk of collisions and catastrophic incidents for all direct and indirect users of space. To mitigate this issue, it is essential to have a good understanding of the various RSOs in orbit and their behaviour. A well-established taxonomy defining several classes of RSOs is a critical step in achieving this understanding. This taxonomy helps assign objects to specific categories based on their main characteristics, leading to better tracking services. Furthermore, a well-established taxonomy can facilitate research and analysis processes by providing a common language and framework for better understanding the factors that influence RSO behaviour in space. These factors, in turn, help design more efficient and effective strategies for space traffic management. Our work proposes a new taxonomy for RSOs focusing on the low Earth orbit regime to enhance space traffic management. In addition, we present a deep learning-based model that uses an autoencoder architecture to reduce the features representing the characteristics of the RSOs. The autoencoder generates a lower-dimensional space representation that is then explored using techniques such as Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection to identify fundamental clusters of RSOs based on their unique characteristics. This approach captures the complex and non-linear relationships between the features and the RSOs' classes identified. Our proposed taxonomy and model offer a significant contribution to the ongoing efforts to mitigate the overall risks posed by the increasing number of RSOs in orbit.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Achieving Constraints in Neural Networks: A Stochastic Augmented Lagrangian Approach

Regularizing Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) is essential for improving generalizability and preventing overfitting. Fixed penalty methods, though common, lack adaptability and suffer from hyperparameter sensitivity. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to DNN regularization by framing the training process as a constrained optimization problem. Where the data fidelity term is the minimization objective and the regularization terms serve as constraints. Then, we employ the Stochastic Augmented Lagrangian (SAL) method to achieve a more flexible and efficient regularization mechanism. Our approach extends beyond black-box regularization, demonstrating significant improvements in white-box models, where weights are often subject to hard constraints to ensure interpretability. Experimental results on image-based classification on MNIST, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100 datasets validate the effectiveness of our approach. SAL consistently achieves higher Accuracy while also achieving better constraint satisfaction, thus showcasing its potential for optimizing DNNs under constrained settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Extreme Multilabel Classification for Specialist Doctor Recommendation with Implicit Feedback and Limited Patient Metadata

Recommendation Systems (RS) are often used to address the issue of medical doctor referrals. However, these systems require access to patient feedback and medical records, which may not always be available in real-world scenarios. Our research focuses on medical referrals and aims to predict recommendations in different specialties of physicians for both new patients and those with a consultation history. We use Extreme Multilabel Classification (XML), commonly employed in text-based classification tasks, to encode available features and explore different scenarios. While its potential for recommendation tasks has often been suggested, this has not been thoroughly explored in the literature. Motivated by the doctor referral case, we show how to recast a traditional recommender setting into a multilabel classification problem that current XML methods can solve. Further, we propose a unified model leveraging patient history across different specialties. Compared to state-of-the-art RS using the same features, our approach consistently improves standard recommendation metrics up to approximately $10\%$ for patients with a previous consultation history. For new patients, XML proves better at exploiting available features, outperforming the benchmark in favorable scenarios, with particular emphasis on recall metrics. Thus, our approach brings us one step closer to creating more effective and personalized doctor referral systems. Additionally, it highlights XML as a promising alternative to current hybrid or content-based RS, while identifying key aspects to take into account when using XML for recommendation tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Low-Resource White-Box Semantic Segmentation of Supporting Towers on 3D Point Clouds via Signature Shape Identification

Research in 3D semantic segmentation has been increasing performance metrics, like the IoU, by scaling model complexity and computational resources, leaving behind researchers and practitioners that (1) cannot access the necessary resources and (2) do need transparency on the model decision mechanisms. In this paper, we propose SCENE-Net, a low-resource white-box model for 3D point cloud semantic segmentation. SCENE-Net identifies signature shapes on the point cloud via group equivariant non-expansive operators (GENEOs), providing intrinsic geometric interpretability. Our training time on a laptop is 85~min, and our inference time is 20~ms. SCENE-Net has 11 trainable geometrical parameters and requires fewer data than black-box models. SCENE--Net offers robustness to noisy labeling and data imbalance and has comparable IoU to state-of-the-art methods. With this paper, we release a 40~000 Km labeled dataset of rural terrain point clouds and our code implementation.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

EAMDrift: An interpretable self retrain model for time series

The use of machine learning for time series prediction has become increasingly popular across various industries thanks to the availability of time series data and advancements in machine learning algorithms. However, traditional methods for time series forecasting rely on pre-optimized models that are ill-equipped to handle unpredictable patterns in data. In this paper, we present EAMDrift, a novel method that combines forecasts from multiple individual predictors by weighting each prediction according to a performance metric. EAMDrift is designed to automatically adapt to out-of-distribution patterns in data and identify the most appropriate models to use at each moment through interpretable mechanisms, which include an automatic retraining process. Specifically, we encode different concepts with different models, each functioning as an observer of specific behaviors. The activation of the overall model then identifies which subset of the concept observers is identifying concepts in the data. This activation is interpretable and based on learned rules, allowing to study of input variables relations. Our study on real-world datasets shows that EAMDrift outperforms individual baseline models by 20% and achieves comparable accuracy results to non-interpretable ensemble models. These findings demonstrate the efficacy of EAMDrift for time-series prediction and highlight the importance of interpretability in machine learning models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Probabilistic Registration for Gaussian Process 3D shape modelling in the presence of extensive missing data

We propose a shape fitting/registration method based on a Gaussian Processes formulation, suitable for shapes with extensive regions of missing data. Gaussian Processes are a proven powerful tool, as they provide a unified setting for shape modelling and fitting. While the existing methods in this area prove to work well for the general case of the human head, when looking at more detailed and deformed data, with a high prevalence of missing data, such as the ears, the results are not satisfactory. In order to overcome this, we formulate the shape fitting problem as a multi-annotator Gaussian Process Regression and establish a parallel with the standard probabilistic registration. The achieved method SFGP shows better performance when dealing with extensive areas of missing data when compared to a state-of-the-art registration method and current approaches for registration with pre-existing shape models. Experiments are conducted both for a 2D small dataset with diverse transformations and a 3D dataset of ears.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

A Majorization-Minimization Based Method for Nonconvex Inverse Rig Problems in Facial Animation: Algorithm Derivation

Automated methods for facial animation are a necessary tool in the modern industry since the standard blendshape head models consist of hundreds of controllers and a manual approach is painfully slow. Different solutions have been proposed that produce output in real-time or generalize well for different face topologies. However, all these prior works consider a linear approximation of the blendshape function and hence do not provide a high-enough level of details for modern realistic human face reconstruction. We build a method for solving the inverse rig in blendshape animation using quadratic corrective terms, which increase accuracy. At the same time, due to the proposed construction of the objective function, it yields a sparser estimated weight vector compared to the state-of-the-art methods. The former feature means lower demand for subsequent manual corrections of the solution, while the latter indicates that the manual modifications are also easier to include. Our algorithm is iterative and employs a Majorization Minimization paradigm to cope with the increased complexity produced by adding the corrective terms. The surrogate function is easy to solve and allows for further parallelization on the component level within each iteration. This paper is complementary to an accompanying paper, Racković et al. (2023), where we provide detailed experimental results and discussion, including highly-realistic animation data, and show a clear superiority of the results compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

High-fidelity Interpretable Inverse Rig: An Accurate and Sparse Solution Optimizing the Quartic Blendshape Model

We propose a method to fit arbitrarily accurate blendshape rig models by solving the inverse rig problem in realistic human face animation. The method considers blendshape models with different levels of added corrections and solves the regularized least-squares problem using coordinate descent, i.e., iteratively estimating blendshape weights. Besides making the optimization easier to solve, this approach ensures that mutually exclusive controllers will not be activated simultaneously and improves the goodness of fit after each iteration. We show experimentally that the proposed method yields solutions with mesh error comparable to or lower than the state-of-the-art approaches while significantly reducing the cardinality of the weight vector (over 20 percent), hence giving a high-fidelity reconstruction of the reference expression that is easier to manipulate in the post-production manually. Python scripts for the algorithm will be publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Accurate and Interpretable Solution of the Inverse Rig for Realistic Blendshape Models with Quadratic Corrective Terms

We propose a new model-based algorithm solving the inverse rig problem in facial animation retargeting, exhibiting higher accuracy of the fit and sparser, more interpretable weight vector compared to SOTA. The proposed method targets a specific subdomain of human face animation - highly-realistic blendshape models used in the production of movies and video games. In this paper, we formulate an optimization problem that takes into account all the requirements of targeted models. Our objective goes beyond a linear blendshape model and employs the quadratic corrective terms necessary for correctly fitting fine details of the mesh. We show that the solution to the proposed problem yields highly accurate mesh reconstruction even when general-purpose solvers, like SQP, are used. The results obtained using SQP are highly accurate in the mesh space but do not exhibit favorable qualities in terms of weight sparsity and smoothness, and for this reason, we further propose a novel algorithm relying on a MM technique. The algorithm is specifically suited for solving the proposed objective, yielding a high-accuracy mesh fit while respecting the constraints and producing a sparse and smooth set of weights easy to manipulate and interpret by artists. Our algorithm is benchmarked with SOTA approaches, and shows an overall superiority of the results, yielding a smooth animation reconstruction with a relative improvement up to 45 percent in root mean squared mesh error while keeping the cardinality comparable with benchmark methods. This paper gives a comprehensive set of evaluation metrics that cover different aspects of the solution, including mesh accuracy, sparsity of the weights, and smoothness of the animation curves, as well as the appearance of the produced animation, which human experts evaluated.

cs.GR↗

arXiv2023

Conjunction Data Messages for Space Collision Behave as a Poisson Process

Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators is to estimate when fresh information will arrive so that they can react timely but sparingly with satellite maneuvers. We propose a statistical learning model of the message arrival process, allowing us to answer two important questions: (1) Will there be any new message in the next specified time interval? (2) When exactly and with what uncertainty will the next message arrive? The average prediction error for question (2) of our Bayesian Poisson process model is smaller than the baseline in more than 4 hours in a test set of 50k close encounter events.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Distributed Solution of the Inverse Rig Problem in Blendshape Facial Animation

The problem of rig inversion is central in facial animation as it allows for a realistic and appealing performance of avatars. With the increasing complexity of modern blendshape models, execution times increase beyond practically feasible solutions. A possible approach towards a faster solution is clustering, which exploits the spacial nature of the face, leading to a distributed method. In this paper, we go a step further, involving cluster coupling to get more confident estimates of the overlapping components. Our algorithm applies the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, sharing the overlapping weights between the subproblems. The results obtained with this technique show a clear advantage over the naive clustered approach, as measured in different metrics of success and visual inspection. The method applies to an arbitrary clustering of the face. We also introduce a novel method for choosing the number of clusters in a data-free manner. The method tends to find a clustering such that the resulting clustering graph is sparse but without losing essential information. Finally, we give a new variant of a data-free clustering algorithm that produces good scores with respect to the mentioned strategy for choosing the optimal clustering.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

A Temporal Fusion Transformer for Long-term Explainable Prediction of Emergency Department Overcrowding

Emergency Departments (EDs) are a fundamental element of the Portuguese National Health Service, serving as an entry point for users with diverse and very serious medical problems. Due to the inherent characteristics of the ED; forecasting the number of patients using the services is particularly challenging. And a mismatch between the affluence and the number of medical professionals can lead to a decrease in the quality of the services provided and create problems that have repercussions for the entire hospital, with the requisition of health care workers from other departments and the postponement of surgeries. ED overcrowding is driven, in part, by non-urgent patients, that resort to emergency services despite not having a medical emergency and which represent almost half of the total number of daily patients. This paper describes a novel deep learning architecture, the Temporal Fusion Transformer, that uses calendar and time-series covariates to forecast prediction intervals and point predictions for a 4 week period. We have concluded that patient volume can be forecasted with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.90% for Portugal's Health Regional Areas (HRA) and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 84.4102 people/day. The paper shows empirical evidence supporting the use of a multivariate approach with static and time-series covariates while surpassing other models commonly found in the literature.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Robust Localization with Bounded Noise: Creating a Superset of the Possible Target Positions via Linear-Fractional Representations

Locating a target is key in many applications, namely in high-stakes real-world scenarios, like detecting humans or obstacles in vehicular networks. In scenarios where precise statistics of the measurement noise are unavailable, applications require localization methods that assume minimal knowledge on the noise distribution. We present a scalable algorithm delimiting a tight superset of all possible target locations, assuming range measurements to known landmarks, contaminated with bounded noise and unknown distributions. This superset is of primary interest in robust statistics since it is a tight majorizer of the set of Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimates parametrized by noise densities respecting two main assumptions: (1) the noise distribution is supported on a ellipsoidal uncertainty region and (2) the measurements are non-negative with probability one. We create the superset through convex relaxations that use Linear Fractional Representations (LFRs), a well-known technique in robust control. For low noise regimes the supersets created by our method double the accuracy of a standard semidefinite relaxation. For moderate to high noise regimes our method still improves the benchmark but the benefit tends to be less significant, as both supersets tend to have the same size (area).

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

From noisy point clouds to complete ear shapes: unsupervised pipeline

Ears are a particularly difficult region of the human face to model, not only due to the non-rigid deformations existing between shapes but also to the challenges in processing the retrieved data. The first step towards obtaining a good model is to have complete scans in correspondence, but these usually present a higher amount of occlusions, noise and outliers when compared to most face regions, thus requiring a specific procedure. Therefore, we propose a complete pipeline taking as input unordered 3D point clouds with the aforementioned problems, and producing as output a dataset in correspondence, with completion of the missing data. We provide a comparison of several state-of-the-art registration methods and propose a new approach for one of the steps of the pipeline, with better performance for our data.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Decentralized EM to Learn Gaussian Mixtures from Datasets Distributed by Features

Expectation Maximization (EM) is the standard method to learn Gaussian mixtures. Yet its classic, centralized form is often infeasible, due to privacy concerns and computational and communication bottlenecks. Prior work dealt with data distributed by examples, horizontal partitioning, but we lack a counterpart for data scattered by features, an increasingly common scheme (e.g. user profiling with data from multiple entities). To fill this gap, we provide an EM-based algorithm to fit Gaussian mixtures to Vertically Partitioned data (VP-EM). In federated learning setups, our algorithm matches the centralized EM fitting of Gaussian mixtures constrained to a subspace. In arbitrary communication graphs, consensus averaging allows VP-EM to run on large peer-to-peer networks as an EM approximation. This mismatch comes from consensus error only, which vanishes exponentially fast with the number of consensus rounds. We demonstrate VP-EM on various topologies for both synthetic and real data, evaluating its approximation of centralized EM and seeing that it outperforms the available benchmark.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

A Cluster-Based Trip Prediction Graph Neural Network Model for Bike Sharing Systems

Bike Sharing Systems (BSSs) are emerging as an innovative transportation service. Ensuring the proper functioning of a BSS is crucial given that these systems are committed to eradicating many of the current global concerns, by promoting environmental and economic sustainability and contributing to improving the life quality of the population. Good knowledge of users' transition patterns is a decisive contribution to the quality and operability of the service. The analogous and unbalanced users' transition patterns cause these systems to suffer from bicycle imbalance, leading to a drastic customer loss in the long term. Strategies for bicycle rebalancing become important to tackle this problem and for this, bicycle traffic prediction is essential, as it allows to operate more efficiently and to react in advance. In this work, we propose a bicycle trips predictor based on Graph Neural Network embeddings, taking into consideration station groupings, meteorology conditions, geographical distances, and trip patterns. We evaluated our approach in the New York City BSS (CitiBike) data and compared it with four baselines, including the non-clustered approach. To address our problem's specificities, we developed the Adaptive Transition Constraint Clustering Plus (AdaTC+) algorithm, eliminating shortcomings of previous work. Our experiments evidence the clustering pertinence (88% accuracy compared with 83% without clustering) and which clustering technique best suits this problem. Accuracy on the Link Prediction task is always higher for AdaTC+ than benchmark clustering methods when the stations are the same, while not degrading performance when the network is upgraded, in a mismatch with the trained model.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Clustering of the Blendshape Facial Model

Digital human animation relies on high-quality 3D models of the human face -- rigs. A face rig must be accurate and, at the same time, fast to compute. One of the most common rigging models is the blendshape model. We present a novel approach for learning the inverse rig parameters at increased accuracy and decreased computational cost at the same time. It is based on a two-fold clustering of the blendshape face model. Our method focuses exclusively on the underlying space of deformation and produces clusters in both the mesh space and the controller space -- something that was not investigated in previous literature. This segmentation finds intuitive and meaningful connections between groups of vertices on the face and deformation controls, and further these segments can be observed independently. A separate model for solving the inverse rig problem is then learned for each segment. Our method is completely unsupervised and highly parallelizable.

cs.GR↗