arXiv subjects

Clayton Miller

Publications and source records attributed to Clayton Miller.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Cohort comfort models -- Using occupants' similarity to predict personal thermal preference with less data

We introduce Cohort Comfort Models, a new framework for predicting how new occupants would perceive their thermal environment. Cohort Comfort Models leverage historical data collected from a sample population, who have some underlying preference similarity, to predict thermal preference responses of new occupants. Our framework is capable of exploiting available background information such as physical characteristics and one-time on-boarding surveys (satisfaction with life scale, highly sensitive person scale, the Big Five personality traits) from the new occupant as well as physiological and environmental sensor measurements paired with thermal preference responses. We implemented our framework in two publicly available datasets containing longitudinal data from 55 people, comprising more than 6,000 individual thermal comfort surveys. We observed that, a Cohort Comfort Model that uses background information provided very little change in thermal preference prediction performance but uses none historical data. On the other hand, for half and one third of each dataset occupant population, using Cohort Comfort Models, with less historical data from target occupants, Cohort Comfort Models increased their thermal preference prediction by 8~\% and 5~\% on average, and up to 36~\% and 46~\% for some occupants, when compared to general-purpose models trained on the whole population of occupants. The framework is presented in a data and site agnostic manner, with its different components easily tailored to the data availability of the occupants and the buildings. Cohort Comfort Models can be an important step towards personalization without the need of developing a personalized model for each new occupant.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Smartwatch-based ecological momentary assessments for occupant wellness and privacy in buildings

This paper describes the adaptation of an open-source ecological momentary assessment smart-watch platform with three sets of micro-survey wellness-related questions focused on i) infectious disease (COVID-19) risk perception, ii) privacy and distraction in an office context, and iii) triggers of various movement-related behaviors in buildings. This platform was previously used to collect data for thermal comfort, and this work extends its use to other domains. Several research participants took part in a proof-of-concept experiment by wearing a smartwatch to collect their micro-survey question preferences and perception responses for two of the question sets. Participants were also asked to install an indoor localization app on their phone to detect where precisely in the building they completed the survey. The experiment identified occupant information such as the tendencies for the research participants to prefer privacy in certain spaces and the difference between infectious disease risk perception in naturally versus mechanically ventilated spaces.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

Pulsar skips: Understanding variations in the regular periods of rotating neutron stars

Pulsars are spinning neutron stars with very regular periods. These pulsars have, however, had instances where they exhibit a change in their periods. Older theories have shown that older pulsars have a tendency to skip and speed up. Newer theories have been created, due to the discovery that younger X-ray pulsars exhibit the same skips. The older theories explain that the core of the pulsar is a superfluid with a differential rotation and the core will occasionally exhibit solid properties to catch the crust of the pulsar and speed it up. The newer quantum mechanical theory states that quantum particle packets, called the strange nuggets, slam into the side of the pulsar to add angular momentum to the pulsar and then release it later.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Targeting occupant feedback using digital twins: Adaptive spatial-temporal thermal preference sampling to optimize personal comfort models

Collecting intensive longitudinal thermal preference data from building occupants is emerging as an innovative means of characterizing the performance of buildings and the people who use them. These techniques have occupants giving subjective feedback using smartphones or smartwatches frequently over the course of days or weeks. The intention is that the data will be collected with high spatial and temporal diversity to best characterize a building and the occupant's preferences. But in reality, leaving the occupant to respond in an ad-hoc or fixed interval way creates unneeded survey fatigue and redundant data. This paper outlines a scenario-based (virtual experiment) method for optimizing data sampling using a smartwatch to achieve comparable accuracy in a personal thermal preference model with fewer data. This method uses BIM-extracted spatial data and Graph Neural Network-based (GNN) modeling to find regions of similar comfort preference to identify the best scenarios for triggering the occupant to give feedback. This method is compared to two baseline scenarios that use conventional zoning and a generic 4x4 square meter grid method from two field-based data sets. The results show that the proposed Build2Vec method has an 18-23\% higher overall sampling quality than the spaces-based and square-grid-based sampling methods. The Build2Vec method also performs similar to the baselines when removing redundant occupant feedback points but with better scalability potential.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Limitations of machine learning for building energy prediction: ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III Kaggle competition error analysis

Research is needed to explore the limitations and potential for improvement of machine learning for building energy prediction. With this aim, the ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) Kaggle competition was launched in 2019. This effort was the largest building energy meter machine learning competition of its kind, with 4,370 participants who submitted 39,403 predictions. The test data set included two years of hourly whole building readings from 2,380 meters in 1,448 buildings at 16 locations. This paper analyzes the various sources and types of residual model error from an aggregation of the competition's top 50 solutions. This analysis reveals the limitations for machine learning using the standard model inputs of historical meter, weather, and basic building metadata. The errors are classified according to timeframe, behavior, magnitude, and incidence in single buildings or across a campus. The results show machine learning models have errors within a range of acceptability (RMSLE_scaled =< 0.1) on 79.1% of the test data. Lower magnitude (in-range) model errors (0.1 < RMSLE_scaled =< 0.3) occur in 16.1% of the test data. These errors could be remedied using innovative training data from onsite and web-based sources. Higher magnitude (out-of-range) errors (RMSLE_scaled > 0.3) occur in 4.8% of the test data and are unlikely to be accurately predicted.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Gradient boosting machines and careful pre-processing work best: ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III lessons learned

The ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) competition was held in late 2019 as one of the largest machine learning competitions ever held focused on building performance. It was hosted on the Kaggle platform and resulted in 39,402 prediction submissions, with the top five teams splitting $25,000 in prize money. This paper outlines lessons learned from participants, mainly from teams who scored in the top 5% of the competition. Various insights were gained from their experience through an online survey, analysis of publicly shared submissions and notebooks, and the documentation of the winning teams. The top-performing solutions mostly used ensembles of Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) tree-based models, with the LightGBM package being the most popular. The survey participants indicated that the preprocessing and feature extraction phases were the most important aspects of creating the best modeling approach. All the survey respondents used Python as their primary modeling tool, and it was common to use Jupyter-style Notebooks as development environments. These conclusions are essential to help steer the research and practical implementation of building energy meter prediction in the future.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Using Google Trends as a proxy for occupant behavior to predict building energy consumption

In recent years, the availability of larger amounts of energy data and advanced machine learning algorithms has created a surge in building energy prediction research. However, one of the variables in energy prediction models, occupant behavior, is crucial for prediction performance but hard-to-measure or time-consuming to collect from each building. This study proposes an approach that utilizes the search volume of topics (e.g., education} or Microsoft Excel) on the Google Trends platform as a proxy of occupant behavior and use of buildings. Linear correlations were first examined to explore the relationship between energy meter data and Google Trends search terms to infer building occupancy. Prediction errors before and after the inclusion of the trends of these terms were compared and analyzed based on the ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) competition dataset. The results show that highly correlated Google Trends data can effectively reduce the overall RMSLE error for a subset of the buildings to the level of the GEPIII competition's top five winning teams' performance. In particular, the RMSLE error reduction during public holidays and days with site-specific schedules are respectively reduced by 20-30% and 2-5%. These results show the potential of using Google Trends to improve energy prediction for a portion of the building stock by automatically identifying site-specific and holiday schedules.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Personal thermal comfort models using digital twins: Preference prediction with BIM-extracted spatial-temporal proximity data from Build2Vec

Conventional thermal preference prediction in buildings has limitations due to the difficulty in capturing all environmental and personal factors. New model features can improve the ability of a machine learning model to classify a person's thermal preference. The spatial context of a building can provide information to models about the windows, walls, heating and cooling sources, air diffusers, and other factors that create micro-environments that influence thermal comfort. Due to spatial heterogeneity, it is impractical to position sensors at a high enough resolution to capture all conditions. This research aims to build upon an existing vector-based spatial model, called Build2Vec, for predicting spatial-temporal occupants' indoor environmental preferences. Build2Vec utilizes the spatial data from the Building Information Model (BIM) and indoor localization in a real-world setting. This framework uses longitudinal intensive thermal comfort subjective feedback from smart watch-based ecological momentary assessments (EMA). The aggregation of these data is combined into a graph network structure (i.e., objects and relations) and used as input for a classification model to predict occupant thermal preference. The results of a test implementation show 14-28% accuracy improvement over a set of baselines that use conventional thermal preference prediction input variables.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Balancing thermal comfort datasets: We GAN, but should we?

Thermal comfort assessment for the built environment has become more available to analysts and researchers due to the proliferation of sensors and subjective feedback methods. These data can be used for modeling comfort behavior to support design and operations towards energy efficiency and well-being. By nature, occupant subjective feedback is imbalanced as indoor conditions are designed for comfort, and responses indicating otherwise are less common. This situation creates a scenario for the machine learning workflow where class balancing as a pre-processing step might be valuable for developing predictive thermal comfort classification models with high-performance. This paper investigates the various thermal comfort dataset class balancing techniques from the literature and proposes a modified conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), $\texttt{comfortGAN}$, to address this imbalance scenario. These approaches are applied to three publicly available datasets, ranging from 30 and 67 participants to a global collection of thermal comfort datasets, with 1,474; 2,067; and 66,397 data points, respectively. This work finds that a classification model trained on a balanced dataset, comprised of real and generated samples from $\texttt{comfortGAN}$, has higher performance (increase between 4% and 17% in classification accuracy) than other augmentation methods tested. However, when classes representing discomfort are merged and reduced to three, better imbalanced performance is expected, and the additional increase in performance by $\texttt{comfortGAN}$ shrinks to 1-2%. These results illustrate that class balancing for thermal comfort modeling is beneficial using advanced techniques such as GANs, but its value is diminished in certain scenarios. A discussion is provided to assist potential users in determining which scenarios this process is useful and which method works best.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Humans-as-a-sensor for buildings: Intensive longitudinal indoor comfort models

Evaluating and optimising human comfort within the built environment is challenging due to the large number of physiological, psychological and environmental variables that affect occupant comfort preference. Human perception could be helpful to capture these disparate phenomena and interpreting their impact; the challenge is collecting spatially and temporally diverse subjective feedback in a scalable way. This paper presents a methodology to collect intensive longitudinal subjective feedback of comfort-based preference using micro ecological momentary assessments on a smartwatch platform. An experiment with 30 occupants over two weeks produced 4,378 field-based surveys for thermal, noise, and acoustic preference. The occupants and the spaces in which they left feedback were then clustered according to these preference tendencies. These groups were used to create different feature sets with combinations of environmental and physiological variables, for use in a multi-class classification task. These classification models were trained on a feature set that was developed from time-series attributes, environmental and near-body sensors, heart rate, and the historical preferences of both the individual and the comfort group assigned. The most accurate model had multi-class classification F1 micro scores of 64%, 80% and 86% for thermal, light, and noise preference, respectively. The discussion outlines how these models can enhance comfort preference prediction when supplementing data from installed sensors. The approach presented prompts reflection on how the building analysis community evaluates, controls, and designs indoor environments through balancing the measurement of variables with strategically asking for occupant preferences in an intensive longitudinal way.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

The Building Data Genome Project 2, energy meter data from the ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III competition

This paper describes an open data set of 3,053 energy meters from 1,636 non-residential buildings with a range of two full years (2016 and 2017) at an hourly frequency (17,544 measurements per meter resulting in approximately 53.6 million measurements). These meters were collected from 19 sites across North America and Europe, with one or more meters per building measuring whole building electrical, heating and cooling water, steam, and solar energy as well as water and irrigation meters. Part of these data were used in the Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) competition hosted by the ASHRAE organization in October-December 2019. GEPIII was a machine learning competition for long-term prediction with an application to measurement and verification. This paper describes the process of data collection, cleaning, and convergence of time-series meter data, the meta-data about the buildings, and complementary weather data. This data set can be used for further prediction benchmarking and prototyping as well as anomaly detection, energy analysis, and building type classification.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

The ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III competition: Overview and results

In late 2019, ASHRAE hosted the Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) machine learning competition on the Kaggle platform. This launch marked the third energy prediction competition from ASHRAE and the first since the mid-1990s. In this updated version, the competitors were provided with over 20 million points of training data from 2,380 energy meters collected for 1,448 buildings from 16 sources. This competition's overall objective was to find the most accurate modeling solutions for the prediction of over 41 million private and public test data points. The competition had 4,370 participants, split across 3,614 teams from 94 countries who submitted 39,403 predictions. In addition to the top five winning workflows, the competitors publicly shared 415 reproducible online machine learning workflow examples (notebooks), including over 40 additional, full solutions. This paper gives a high-level overview of the competition preparation and dataset, competitors and their discussions, machine learning workflows and models generated, winners and their submissions, discussion of lessons learned, and competition outputs and next steps. The most popular and accurate machine learning workflows used large ensembles of mostly gradient boosting tree models, such as LightGBM. Similar to the first predictor competition, preprocessing of the data sets emerged as a key differentiator.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Build2Vec: Building Representation in Vector Space

In this paper, we represent a methodology of a graph embeddings algorithm that is used to transform labeled property graphs obtained from a Building Information Model (BIM). Industrial Foundation Classes (IFC) is a standard schema for BIM, which is utilized to convert the building data into a graph representation. We used node2Vec with biased random walks to extract semantic similarities between different building components and represent them in a multi-dimensional vector space. A case study implementation is conducted on a net-zero-energy building located at the National University of Singapore (SDE4). This approach shows promising machine learning applications in capturing the semantic relations and similarities of different building objects, more specifically, spatial and spatio-temporal data.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

EnergyStar++: Towards more accurate and explanatory building energy benchmarking

Building energy performance benchmarking has been adopted widely in the USA and Canada through the Energy Star Portfolio Manager platform. Building operations and energy management professionals have long used a simple 1-100 score to understand how their building compares to its peers. This single number is easy to use, but is created by inaccurate linear regression (MLR) models. This paper proposes a methodology that enhances the existing Energy Star calculation method by increasing accuracy and providing additional model output processing to help explain why a building is achieving a certain score. We propose and test two new prediction models: multiple linear regression with feature interactions (MLRi) and gradient boosted trees (GBT). Both models have better average accuracy than the baseline Energy Star models. The third order MLRi and GBT models achieve 4.9% and 24.9% increase in adjusted R2, respectively, and 7.0% and 13.7% decrease in normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE), respectively, on average than MLR models for six building types. Even more importantly, a set of techniques is developed to help determine which factors most influence the score using SHAP values. The SHAP force visualization in particular offers an accessible overview of the aspects of the building that influence the score that non-technical users can readily interpret. This methodology is tested on the 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS)(1,812 buildings) and public data sets from the energy disclosure programs of New York City (11,131 buildings) and Seattle (2,073 buildings).

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Spacematch: Using environmental preferences to match occupants to suitable activity-based workspaces

The activity-based workspace (ABW) paradigm is becoming more popular in commercial office spaces. In this strategy, occupants are given a choice of spaces to do their work and personal activities on a day-to-day basis. This paper shows the implementation and testing of the Spacematch platform that was designed to improve the allocation and management of ABW. An experiment was implemented to test the ability to characterize the preferences of occupants to match them with suitable environmentally-comfortable and spatially-efficient flexible workspaces. This approach connects occupants with a catalog of available work desks using a web-based mobile application and enables them to provide real-time environmental feedback. In this work, we tested the ability for this feedback data to be merged with indoor environmental values from Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors to optimize space and energy use by grouping occupants with similar preferences. This paper outlines a case study implementation of this platform on two office buildings. This deployment collected 1,182 responses from 25 field-based research participants over a 30-day study. From this initial data set, the results show that the ABW occupants can be segmented into specific types of users based on their accumulated preference data, and matching preferences can be derived to build a recommendation platform.

cs.CY↗