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Cristian R. Rojas

Publications and source records attributed to Cristian R. Rojas.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Optimal Transport for Correctional Learning

The contribution of this paper is a generalized formulation of correctional learning using optimal transport, which is about how to optimally transport one mass distribution to another. Correctional learning is a framework developed to enhance the accuracy of parameter estimation processes by means of a teacher-student approach. In this framework, an expert agent, referred to as the teacher, modifies the data used by a learning agent, known as the student, to improve its estimation process. The objective of the teacher is to alter the data such that the student's estimation error is minimized, subject to a fixed intervention budget. Compared to existing formulations of correctional learning, our novel optimal transport approach provides several benefits. It allows for the estimation of more complex characteristics as well as the consideration of multiple intervention policies for the teacher. We evaluate our approach on two theoretical examples, and on a human-robot interaction application in which the teacher's role is to improve the robots performance in an inverse reinforcement learning setting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2022

A Unified Approach to Differentially Private Bayes Point Estimation

Parameter estimation in statistics and system identification relies on data that may contain sensitive information. To protect this sensitive information, the notion of \emph{differential privacy} (DP) has been proposed, which enforces confidentiality by introducing randomization in the estimates. Standard algorithms for differentially private estimation are based on adding an appropriate amount of noise to the output of a traditional point estimation method. This leads to an accuracy-privacy trade off, as adding more noise reduces the accuracy while increasing privacy. In this paper, we propose a new Unified Bayes Private Point (UBaPP) approach to Bayes point estimation of the unknown parameters of a data generating mechanism under a DP constraint, that achieves a better accuracy-privacy trade off than traditional approaches. We verify the performance of our approach on a simple numerical example.

math.OC↗
arXiv2022

A Statistical Decision-Theoretical Perspective on the Two-Stage Approach to Parameter Estimation

One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2022

A Teacher-Student Markov Decision Process-based Framework for Online Correctional Learning

A classical learning setting typically concerns an agent/student who collects data, or observations, from a system in order to estimate a certain property of interest. Correctional learning is a type of cooperative teacher-student framework where a teacher, who has partial knowledge about the system, has the ability to observe and alter (correct) the observations received by the student in order to improve the accuracy of its estimate. In this paper, we show how the variance of the estimate of the student can be reduced with the help of the teacher. We formulate the corresponding online problem - where the teacher has to decide, at each time instant, whether or not to change the observations due to a limited budget - as a Markov decision process, from which the optimal policy is derived using dynamic programming. We validate the framework in numerical experiments, and compare the optimal online policy with the one from the batch setting.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Asymptotically Optimal Bandits under Weighted Information

We study the problem of regret minimization in a multi-armed bandit setup where the agent is allowed to play multiple arms at each round by spreading the resources usually allocated to only one arm. At each iteration the agent selects a normalized power profile and receives a Gaussian vector as outcome, where the unknown variance of each sample is inversely proportional to the power allocated to that arm. The reward corresponds to a linear combination of the power profile and the outcomes, resembling a linear bandit. By spreading the power, the agent can choose to collect information much faster than in a traditional multi-armed bandit at the price of reducing the accuracy of the samples. This setup is fundamentally different from that of a linear bandit -- the regret is known to scale as $Θ(\sqrt{T})$ for linear bandits, while in this setup the agent receives a much more detailed feedback, for which we derive a tight $\log(T)$ problem-dependent lower-bound. We propose a Thompson-Sampling-based strategy, called Weighted Thompson Sampling (\WTS), that designs the power profile as its posterior belief of each arm being the best arm, and show that its upper bound matches the derived logarithmic lower bound. Finally, we apply this strategy to a problem of control and system identification, where the goal is to estimate the maximum gain (also called $\mathcal{H}_\infty$-norm) of a linear dynamical system based on batches of input-output samples.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2021

Consistency Analysis of the Closed-loop SRIVC Estimator

The Consistency of the Closed-Loop Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable method for Continuous-time system (CLSRIVC) is analysed based on sampled data. It is proven that the CLSRIVC estimator is not consistent when a continuous-time controller is used in the closed-loop.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2021

Non-causal regularized least-squares for continuous-time system identification with band-limited input excitations

In continuous-time system identification, the intersample behavior of the input signal is known to play a crucial role in the performance of estimation methods. One common input behavior assumption is that the spectrum of the input is band-limited. The sinc interpolation property of these input signals yields equivalent discrete-time representations that are non-causal. This observation, often overlooked in the literature, is exploited in this work to study non-parametric frequency response estimators of linear continuous-time systems. We study the properties of non-causal least-square estimators for continuous-time system identification, and propose a kernel-based non-causal regularized least-squares approach for estimating the band-limited equivalent impulse response. The proposed methods are tested via extensive numerical simulations.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2021

Consistent identification of continuous-time systems under multisine input signal excitation

For many years, the Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable method for Continuous-time systems (SRIVC) has been widely used for identification. The intersample behaviour of the input plays an important role in this method, and it has been shown recently that the SRIVC estimator is not consistent if an incorrect assumption on the intersample behaviour is considered. In this paper, we present an extension of the SRIVC algorithm that is able to deal with continuous-time multisine signals, which cannot be interpolated exactly through hold reconstructions. The proposed estimator is generically consistent for any input reconstructed through zero or first-order-hold devices, and we show that it is generically consistent for continuous-time multisine inputs as well. The statistical performance of the proposed estimator is compared to the standard SRIVC estimator through extensive simulations.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2020

Cooperative System Identification via Correctional Learning

We consider a cooperative system identification scenario in which an expert agent (teacher) knows a correct, or at least a good, model of the system and aims to assist a learner-agent (student), but cannot directly transfer its knowledge to the student. For example, the teacher's knowledge of the system might be abstract or the teacher and student might be employing different model classes, which renders the teacher's parameters uninformative to the student. In this paper, we propose correctional learning as an approach to the above problem: Suppose that in order to assist the student, the teacher can intercept the observations collected from the system and modify them to maximize the amount of information the student receives about the system. We formulate a general solution as an optimization problem, which for a multinomial system instantiates itself as an integer program. Furthermore, we obtain finite-sample results on the improvement that the assistance from the teacher results in (as measured by the reduction in the variance of the estimator) for a binomial system.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2020

Efficiency Analysis of the Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable Method for Continuous-time Systems

In this paper, we derive the asymptotic Cramér-Rao lower bound for the continuous-time output error model structure and provide an analysis of the statistical efficiency of the Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable method for Continuous-time systems (SRIVC) based on sampled data.It is shown that the asymptotic Cramér-Rao lower bound is independent of the intersample behaviour of the noise-free system output and hence only depends on the intersample behaviour of the system input. We have also shown that, at the converging point of the SRIVC algorithm, the estimates do not depend on the intersample behaviour of the measured output. It is then proven that the SRIVC estimator is asymptotically efficient for the output error model structure under mild conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to verify the asymptotic Cramér-Rao lower bound and the asymptotic covariance of the SRIVC estimates.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2020

Finite sample deviation and variance bounds for first order autoregressive processes

In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by at least a positive $\varepsilon$ from its true value. Our results consider both stable and unstable processes. Afterwards, we obtain problem-dependent non-asymptotic bounds on the variance of this estimator, valid for sample sizes greater than or equal to seven. Via simulations we analyze the conservatism of our bounds, and show that they reliably capture the true behavior of the quantities of interest.

math.ST↗
arXiv2020

A Finite-Sample Deviation Bound for Stable Autoregressive Processes

In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR($n$) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for $χ^2$ distributed variables, we provide a concentration bound for the sample covariance matrix of the process output. With this, we present a problem-dependent finite-time bound on the deviation probability of any fixed linear combination of the estimated parameters of the AR$(n)$ process. We discuss extensions and limitations of our approach.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2020

How to Protect Your Privacy? A Framework for Counter-Adversarial Decision Making

We consider a counter-adversarial sequential decision-making problem where an agent computes its private belief (posterior distribution) of the current state of the world, by filtering private information. According to its private belief, the agent performs an action, which is observed by an adversarial agent. We have recently shown how the adversarial agent can reconstruct the private belief of the decision-making agent via inverse optimization. The main contribution of this paper is a method to obfuscate the private belief of the agent from the adversary, by performing a suboptimal action. The proposed method optimizes the trade-off between obfuscating the private belief and limiting the increase in cost accrued due to taking a suboptimal action. We propose a probabilistic relaxation to obtain a linear optimization problem for solving the trade-off. In numerical examples, we show that the proposed methods enable the agent to obfuscate its private belief without compromising its cost budget.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2020

Inverse Filtering for Hidden Markov Models with Applications to Counter-Adversarial Autonomous Systems

Bayesian filtering deals with computing the posterior distribution of the state of a stochastic dynamic system given noisy observations. In this paper, motivated by applications in counter-adversarial systems, we consider the following inverse filtering problem: Given a sequence of posterior distributions from a Bayesian filter, what can be inferred about the transition kernel of the state, the observation likelihoods of the sensor and the measured observations? For finite-state Markov chains observed in noise (hidden Markov models), we show that a least-squares fit for estimating the parameters and observations amounts to a combinatorial optimization problem with non-convex objective. Instead, by exploiting the algebraic structure of the corresponding Bayesian filter, we propose an algorithm based on convex optimization for reconstructing the transition kernel, the observation likelihoods and the observations. We discuss and derive conditions for identifiability. As an application of our results, we illustrate the design of counter-adversarial systems: By observing the actions of an autonomous enemy, we estimate the accuracy of its sensors and the observations it has received. The proposed algorithms are evaluated in numerical examples.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2019

Bayesian Model Selection for Change Point Detection and Clustering

We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a family of models indexed over the collection of partitions of the design points and propose a computationally efficient algorithm to approximately solve it. Statistically, minimizing such a penalized criterion yields an approximation to the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimator. The criterion is then analyzed and an oracle inequality is derived using a Gaussian concentration inequality. The oracle inequality is used to derive on one hand conditions for consistency and on the other hand an adaptive upper bound on the expected square risk of the estimator, which statistically motivates our approximation. Finally, we apply our algorithm to simulated data to experimentally validate the statistical guarantees and illustrate its behavior.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2019

Finite impulse response models: A non-asymptotic analysis of the least squares estimator

We consider a finite impulse response system with centered independent sub-Gaussian design covariates and noise components that are not necessarily identically distributed. We derive non-asymptotic near-optimal estimation and prediction bounds for the least-squares estimator of the parameters. Our results are based on two concentration inequalities on the norm of sums of dependent covariate vectors and on the singular values of their covariance operator that are of independent value on their own and where the dependence arises from the time shift structure of the time series. These results generalize the known bounds for the independent case.

math.ST↗
arXiv2019

What Did Your Adversary Believe? Optimal Filtering and Smoothing in Counter-Adversarial Autonomous Systems

We consider fixed-interval smoothing problems for counter-adversarial autonomous systems. An adversary deploys an autonomous filtering and control system that i) measures our current state via a noisy sensor, ii) computes a posterior estimate (belief) and iii) takes an action that we can observe. Based on such observed actions and our knowledge of our state sequence, we aim to estimate the adversary's past and current beliefs -- this forms a foundation for predicting, and counteracting against, future actions. We derive the optimal smoother for the adversary's beliefs (we treat the problem in a Bayesian framework). Moreover, we demonstrate how the smoother can be computed for discrete systems even though the corresponding backward variables do not admit a finite-dimensional characterization. Finally, we illustrate our results in numerical simulations.

eess.SY↗