arXiv subjects

D. E. Holz

Publications and source records attributed to D. E. Holz.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Datasets?

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light-curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of $10^3 \rm{Gpc}^{-3}/\rm{year}$, consistent with the $1$ event found so far. Examining past and current datasets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and $0.3$. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be: 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling / Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and Core-collapse supernovae: after light-curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just 2 events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency, and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

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arXiv2017

A Search for Kilonovae in the Dark Energy Survey

The coalescence of a binary neutron star (BNS) pair is expected to produce gravitational waves (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation, both of which may be detectable with currently available instruments. We describe a search for a theoretically predicted r-process optical transient from these mergers, dubbed the kilonova (KN), using griz broadband data from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN). Some models predict KNe to be redder, shorter-lived, and dimmer than supernovae (SNe), but at present the event rate of KNe is poorly constrained. We simulate observations of KN and SN light curves with the Monte-Carlo simulation code SNANA to optimize selection requirements, determine search efficiency, and predict SN backgrounds. We also perform an analysis using fake point sources on images to account for anomalous efficiency losses from difference-imaging on bright low-redshift galaxies. Our analysis of the first two seasons of DES-SN data results in 0 events, and is consistent with our prediction of 1.1 background events based on simulations of SN. Given our simulation prediction, there is a 33 percent chance of finding 0 events in the data. Assuming no underlying galaxy flux, our search sets 90 percent upper limits on the KN volumetric rate of $1.0\times10^7$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for the dimmest KN model we consider (peak i-band absolute magnitude $M_i=-11.4$ mag) and $2.4\times10^4$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ for the brightest ($M_i=-16.2$ mag). Accounting for efficiency loss from host galaxy Poisson noise, these limits are 1.1 times higher; accounting for anomalous subtraction artifacts on bright galaxies, these limits are ~3 times higher. While previous KN searches were based on triggered follow-up, this analysis is the first untriggered optical KN search and informs selection requirements and strategies for future KN searches and GW follow-up observations.

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arXiv2016

Supplement: Going the Distance: Mapping Host Galaxies of LIGO and Virgo Sources in Three Dimensions Using Local Cosmography and Targeted Follow-up

This is a supplement to the Letter of Singer et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.07333), in which we demonstrated a rapid algorithm for obtaining joint 3D estimates of sky location and luminosity distance from observations of binary neutron star mergers with Advanced LIGO and Virgo. We argued that combining the reconstructed volumes with positions and redshifts of possible host galaxies can provide large-aperture but small field of view instruments with a manageable list of targets to search for optical or infrared emission. In this Supplement, we document the new HEALPix-based file format for 3D localizations of gravitational-wave transients. We include Python sample code to show the reader how to perform simple manipulations of the 3D sky maps and extract ranked lists of likely host galaxies. Finally, we include mathematical details of the rapid volume reconstruction algorithm.

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arXiv2016

Going the Distance: Mapping Host Galaxies of LIGO and Virgo Sources in Three Dimensions Using Local Cosmography and Targeted Follow-up

The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) discovered gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary black hole merger in 2015 September and may soon observe signals from neutron star mergers. There is considerable interest in searching for their faint and rapidly fading electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, though GW position uncertainties are as coarse as hundreds of square degrees. Because LIGO's sensitivity to binary neutron stars is limited to the local universe, the area on the sky that must be searched could be reduced by weighting positions by mass, luminosity, or star formation in nearby galaxies. Since GW observations provide information about luminosity distance, combining the reconstructed volume with positions and redshifts of galaxies could reduce the area even more dramatically. A key missing ingredient has been a rapid GW parameter estimation algorithm that reconstructs the full distribution of sky location and distance. We demonstrate the first such algorithm, which takes under a minute, fast enough to enable immediate EM follow-up. By combining the three-dimensional posterior with a galaxy catalog, we can reduce the number of galaxies that could conceivably host the event by a factor of 1.4, the total exposure time for the Swift X-ray Telescope by a factor of 2, the total exposure time for a synoptic optical survey by a factor of 2, and the total exposure time for a narrow-field optical telescope by a factor of 3. This encourages us to suggest a new role for small field of view optical instruments in performing targeted searches of the most massive galaxies within the reconstructed volumes.

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arXiv2016

A DECam Search for an Optical Counterpart to the LIGO Gravitational Wave Event GW151226

We report the results of a Dark Energy Camera (DECam) optical follow-up of the gravitational wave (GW) event GW151226, discovered by the Advanced LIGO detectors. Our observations cover 28.8 deg$^2$ of the localization region in the $i$ and $z$ bands (containing 3% of the BAYESTAR localization probability), starting 10 hours after the event was announced and spanning four epochs at $2-24$ days after the GW detection. We achieve $5σ$ point-source limiting magnitudes of $i\approx21.7$ and $z\approx21.5$, with a scatter of $0.4$ mag, in our difference images. Given the two day delay, we search this area for a rapidly declining optical counterpart with $\gtrsim 3σ$ significance steady decline between the first and final observations. We recover four sources that pass our selection criteria, of which three are cataloged AGN. The fourth source is offset by $5.8$ arcsec from the center of a galaxy at a distance of 187 Mpc, exhibits a rapid decline by $0.5$ mag over $4$ days, and has a red color of $i-z\approx 0.3$ mag. These properties roughly match the expectations for a kilonova. However, this source was detected several times, starting $94$ days prior to GW151226, in the Pan-STARRS Survey for Transients (dubbed as PS15cdi) and is therefore unrelated to the GW event. Given its long-term behavior, PS15cdi is likely a Type IIP supernova that transitioned out of its plateau phase during our observations, mimicking a kilonova-like behavior. We comment on the implications of this detection for contamination in future optical follow-up observations.

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arXiv2016

The Effect of Pair-Instability Mass Loss on Black Hole Mergers

Mergers of two stellar origin black holes are a prime source of gravitational waves and are under intensive investigations. One crucial ingredient in their modeling has so far been neglected. Pair-instability pulsation supernovae with associated severe mass loss may suppress formation of massive black holes, decreasing black hole merger rates for the highest black hole masses. The mass loss associated with pair-instability pulsation supernovae limits the Population I/II stellar-origin black hole mass to 50 Msun, in tension with earlier predictions that the maximum black hole mass could be as high as 100 Msun. Suppression of double black hole merger rates by pair-instability pulsation supernovae is negligible for our evolutionary channel. Our standard evolutionary model with inclusion of pair-instability pulsation supernovae and with pair-instability supernovae is fully consistent with the LIGO detections of black hole mergers: GW150914, GW151226 and LVT151012. The LIGO observations seem to exclude high (>400 km/s) BH natal kicks. We predict the detection of several up to 60 BH-BH mergers with total mass 10--150 Msun (most likely range: 20--80 Msun) in the forthcoming 60 effective days of LIGO O2 observations.

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arXiv2010

The effect of metallicity on the detection prospects for gravitational waves

Data from the SDSS (300,000 galaxies) indicates that recent star formation (within the last 1 billion years) is bimodal: half the stars form from gas with high amounts of metals (solar metallicity), and the other half form with small contribution of elements heavier than Helium (10-30% solar). Theoretical studies of mass loss from the brightest stars derive significantly higher stellar-origin BH masses (30-80 Msun) than previously estimated for sub-solar compositions. We combine these findings to estimate the probability of detecting gravitational waves (GWs) arising from the inspiral of double compact objects. Our results show that a low metallicity environment significantly boosts the formation of double compact object binaries with at least one BH. In particular, we find the GW detection rate is increased by a factor of 20 if the metallicity is decreased from solar (as in all previous estimates) to a 50-50 mixture of solar and 10% solar metallicity. The current sensitivity of the two largest instruments to NS-NS binary inspirals (VIRGO: 9 Mpc; LIGO: 18) is not high enough to ensure a first detection. However, our results indicate that if a future instrument increased the sensitivity to 50-100 Mpc, a detection of GWs would be expected within the first year of observation. It was previously thought that NS-NS inspirals were the most likely source for GW detection. Our results indicate that BH-BH binaries are 25-times more likely sources than NS-NS systems and that we are on the cusp of GW detection.

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arXiv2009

Low-Energy Astrophysics: Stimulating the Reduction of Energy Consumption in the Next Decade

In this paper we address the consumption of energy by astronomers while performing their professional duties. Although we find that astronomy uses a negligible fraction of the US energy budget, the rate at which energy is consumed by an average astronomer is similar to that of a typical high-flying businessperson. We review some of the ways in which astronomers are already acting to reduce their energy consumption. In the coming decades, all citizens will have to reduce their energy consumption to conserve fossil fuel reserves and to help avert a potentially catastrophic change in the Earth's climate. The challenges are the same for astronomers as they are for everyone: decreasing the distances we travel and investing in energy-efficient infrastructure. The high profile of astronomy in the media, and the great public interest in our field, can play a role in promoting energy-awareness to the wider population. Our specific recommendations are therefore to 1) reduce travel when possible, through efficient meeting organization, and by investing in high-bandwidth video conference facilities and virtual-world software, 2) create energy-efficient observatories, computing centers and workplaces, powered by sustainable energy resources, and 3) actively publicize these pursuits.

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arXiv2007

A New Population of High Redshift Short-Duration Gamma-Ray Bursts

The redshift distribution of the short-duration GRBs is a crucial, but currently fragmentary, clue to the nature of their progenitors. Here we present optical observations of nine short GRBs obtained with Gemini, Magellan, and the Hubble Space Telescope. We detect the afterglows and host galaxies of two short bursts, and host galaxies for two additional bursts with known optical afterglow positions, and five with X-ray positions (<6'' radius). In eight of the nine cases we find that the most probable host galaxies are faint, R~23-26.5 mag, and are therefore starkly different from the first few short GRB hosts with R~17-22 mag and z<0.5. Indeed, we measure spectroscopic redshifts of z~0.4-1.1 for the four brightest hosts. A comparison to large field galaxy samples, as well as the hosts of long GRBs and previous short GRBs, indicates that the fainter hosts likely reside at z>1. Our most conservative limit is that at least half of the five hosts without a known redshift reside at z>0.7 (97% confidence level), suggesting that about 1/3-2/3 of all short GRBs originate at higher redshifts than previously determined. This has two important implications: (i) We constrain the acceptable age distributions to a wide lognormal (sigma>1) with tau~4-8 Gyr, or to a power law, P(tau)~tau^n, with -1<n<0; and (ii) the inferred isotropic energies, E_{gamma,iso}~10^50-10^52 erg, are significantly larger than ~10^48-10^49 erg for the low redshift short GRBs, indicating a large spread in energy release or jet opening angles. Finally, we re-iterate the importance of short GRBs as potential gravitational wave sources and find a conservative Advanced LIGO detection rate of ~2-6 yr^-1.

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