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arXiv · 1710.05845

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Datasets?

D. Scolnic·R. Kessler·D. Brout·P. S. Cowperthwaite·M. Soares-Santos·J. Annis·K. Herner·H. -Y. Chen·M. Sako·Z. Doctor·R. E. Butler·A. Palmese·H. T. Diehl·J. Frieman·D. E. Holz·E. Berger·R. Chornock·V. A. Villar·M. Nicholl·R. Biswas·R. Hounsell·R. J. Foley·J. Metzger·A. Rest·J. García-Bellido·A. Möller·P. Nugent·T. M. C. Abbott·F. B. Abdalla·S. Allam·K. Bechtol·A. Benoit-Lévy·E. Bertin·D. Brooks·E. Buckley-Geer·A. Carnero Rosell·M. Carrasco Kind·J. Carretero·F. J. Castander·C. E. Cunha·C. B. D'Andrea·L. N. da Costa·C. Davis·P. Doel·A. Drlica-Wagner·T. F. Eifler·B. Flaugher·P. Fosalba·E. Gaztanaga·D. W. Gerdes·D. Gruen·R. A. Gruendl·J. Gschwend·G. Gutierrez·W. G. Hartley·K. Honscheid·D. J. James·M. W. G. Johnson·M. D. Johnson·E. Krause·K. Kuehn·S. Kuhlmann·O. Lahav·T. S. Li·M. Lima·M. A. G. Maia·M. March·J. L. Marshall·F. Menanteau·R. Miquel·E. Neilsen·A. A. Plazas·E. Sanchez·V. Scarpine·M. Schubnell·I. Sevilla-Noarbe·M. Smith·R. C. Smith·F. Sobreira·E. Suchyta·M. E. C. Swanson·G. Tarle·R. C. Thomas·D. L. Tucker·A. R. Walker·DES Collaboration
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Abstract

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light-curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of $10^3 \rm{Gpc}^{-3}/\rm{year}$, consistent with the $1$ event found so far. Examining past and current datasets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and $0.3$. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be: 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling / Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and Core-collapse supernovae: after light-curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just 2 events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency, and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

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D. Scolnic, R. Kessler, D. Brout, P. S. Cowperthwaite, M. Soares-Santos, J. Annis, K. Herner, H. -Y. Chen, M. Sako, Z. Doctor, R. E. Butler, A. Palmese, H. T. Diehl, J. Frieman, D. E. Holz, E. Berger, R. Chornock, V. A. Villar, M. Nicholl, R. Biswas, R. Hounsell, R. J. Foley, J. Metzger, A. Rest, J. García-Bellido, A. Möller, P. Nugent, T. M. C. Abbott, F. B. Abdalla, S. Allam, K. Bechtol, A. Benoit-Lévy, E. Bertin, D. Brooks, E. Buckley-Geer, A. Carnero Rosell, M. Carrasco Kind, J. Carretero, F. J. Castander, C. E. Cunha, C. B. D'Andrea, L. N. da Costa, C. Davis, P. Doel, A. Drlica-Wagner, T. F. Eifler, B. Flaugher, P. Fosalba, E. Gaztanaga, D. W. Gerdes, D. Gruen, R. A. Gruendl, J. Gschwend, G. Gutierrez, W. G. Hartley, K. Honscheid, D. J. James, M. W. G. Johnson, M. D. Johnson, E. Krause, K. Kuehn, S. Kuhlmann, O. Lahav, T. S. Li, M. Lima, M. A. G. Maia, M. March, J. L. Marshall, F. Menanteau, R. Miquel, E. Neilsen, A. A. Plazas, E. Sanchez, V. Scarpine, M. Schubnell, I. Sevilla-Noarbe, M. Smith, R. C. Smith, F. Sobreira, E. Suchyta, M. E. C. Swanson, G. Tarle, R. C. Thomas, D. L. Tucker, A. R. Walker, DES Collaboration. 2017-10-16. How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Datasets?. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213%2Faa9d82

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