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Daniel Apai

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Apai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The Interstellar Laser Beacons Hypothesis and the Cosmic Lighthouses Project

In this paper, we argue that in a realistic, resource-limited scenario senders whose intent is to maximize successful communication at the lowest cost will utilize very long-lived, pulsed beacons. Further, we argue that mass-producible laser beacons with simpler technology ($\mu$s or ms pulses instead of ultrashort fs pulses) are more optimal if placed on interstellar orbits. Our extensive, existing surveys are mostly blind to the $\mu$s/ms-second universe and to such beacons. We show, however, that the convergence of three technologies (massively parallel processing, ultra high-speed CMOS detectors, and broadband, mass-producible diffractive-refractive lenses) now offer an exciting opportunity for a low-cost survey of the $\mu$second sky. Such survey would be astrophysically compelling and, with even low-cost telescopes, could place volume-complete constraints on interstellar beacons within twenty parsecss.

astro-ph.IM

Asymmetric nightside CO2 features, inefficient heat transport, and precise evolutionary constraints: Spectroscopic phase curves reveal the past and present of a white dwarf-brown dwarf binary

We present the first JWST phase curve of a white dwarf-brown dwarf binary, a NIRSpec PRISM observation of ZTFJ0038+2030. Short-period white dwarf-brown dwarf binaries provide unique laboratories to probe substellar atmospheres. Tidal locking drives hot Jupiter-like atmospheric dynamics in the brown dwarf. The system's formation history offers a window into planetary systems around post-main-sequence stars. We obtain a full-orbit phase curve of ZTF0038, including a total eclipse of the white dwarf, which enables us to separate the two components' emission throughout the entire orbit, and we model the brown dwarf's phase-resolved emission spectra using substellar atmosphere forward models and atmospheric retrievals. The PRISM spectrum covers ~80% of the brown dwarf's bolometric emission, enabling a nearly model-independent energy balance calculation, which yields a day-to-nightside heat transport efficiency of <10%. Inefficient heat redistribution is further supported by the phase curve shape and the nightside spectrum closely resembling non-irradiated mid-to-late T dwarfs. The spectroscopic phase curves reveal a stark nightside asymmetry associated with a strong CO2 absorption feature at 4.2 um, while the retrieved abundances indicate a longitudinally homogeneous distribution of CO2 as well as all other key species detected in the atmosphere. The precise internal luminosity measurement of the brown dwarf informs both the age of the WD-BD system (7.5-8.8 Gyr) and indicates a low common-envelope ejection efficiency. These data illustrate the exquisite opportunity to probe the three-dimensional processes of substellar atmospheres, connect substellar and exoplanet atmospheres, and probe the evolution of post-main-sequence planetary systems using WD-BDs.

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Mapping Stellar Heterogeneities with the Nautilus Space Observatory

Stellar photospheric heterogeneities, such as starspots and faculae, are a fundamental limitation for exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. Inhomogeneous surfaces can imprint wavelength-dependent signals during transits that may mimic or mask atmospheric absorption features, especially for planets orbiting cool low-mass stars. Recent work has shown that the information content of transmission spectroscopy observations can be sufficient to correct for stellar contamination, but only if stellar photosphere and active-region models have adequate fidelity. This requires empirical benchmarking with observations that validate next-generation stellar models and identify which spectral diagnostics best encode heterogeneity properties as a function of spectral type, activity level, and time. We propose a two-generation Nautilus program that leverages the scalable architecture of the observatory concept. Generation 1 would use broad-wavelength time-series observations of transiting exoplanet systems to connect starspot-crossing events and out-of-transit variability to localized and disk-integrated heterogeneity properties. Generation 2 would use the optimized spectral diagnostics identified in Generation 1 to conduct slitless spectroscopic monitoring of large samples of GKM stars on different timescales. Generation 2 instrumentation would include activity tracers of both the photosphere and chromosphere. This program would provide the benchmark data and population-level framework needed to turn stellar contamination into a calibrated input for exoplanet atmospheric retrievals.

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Nautilus Space Observatory: The Evolution of Planets and their Atmospheres

We are just beginning to explore the billion-year evolution from nascent planets in disks to mature planetary systems. Recent discoveries hint at demographic and atmospheric differences between young planets and their Gyr-old counterparts, but current facilities are limited - particularly in their ability to conduct statistical atmospheric studies over a broad period range. This white paper outlines compelling science achievable with the Nautilus Space Observatory, a proposed constellation of large-diameter space telescopes. We identify four primary scientific objectives: (1) determining the timescales over which planets evolve into sub-Neptunes and super-Earths; (2) tracking the temporal evolution of atmospheric mass-loss rates; (3) characterizing the evolution of the atmospheric mean molecular weight and C/O ratio; and (4) identifying the emergence of Helium-dominated worlds. Answering these questions requires the high spatial resolution, broad-wavelength coverage, large effective area, and parallelized multiple units that Nautilus provides. By isolating the physical processes that govern the evolution of planets and their atmospheres, these science objectives directly support NASA's Cosmic Origins and Exoplanet Exploration Programs.

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A single power law for the TRAPPIST-1 flare distribution across four orders of magnitude in energy

TRAPPIST-1 is an ultra-cool dwarf that flares frequently. These flares shape the surrounding planets' high-energy irradiation environments, with consequences for atmospheric chemistry and escape, and they can contaminate transmission spectroscopy of those planets. A quantitative flare-frequency distribution (FFD) spanning the full energy range is therefore essential for both interpreting JWST spectra and modeling the planets' irradiation histories. Here we present a unified FFD over four orders of magnitude in energy by jointly analyzing $\approx$87\,hr of JWST/NIRISS and JWST/NIRSpec time-series spectroscopy together with $\approx$74\,days of \textit{Kepler}/K2 photometry. To enable a consistent comparison across these heterogeneous datasets, we convert all events to energies in the TESS bandpass. For the Kepler-to-TESS conversion we adopt a cooler flare continuum appropriate for ultra-cool dwarfs ($T_{\rm flare}=3500$\,K). After correcting for flare-detection sensitivities, the combined JWST+K2 cumulative FFD is consistent with a single power law, $N(\ge E_\mathrm{TESS})\propto E_\mathrm{TESS}^{-\beta}$, with $\beta=0.753$ over $E_{\rm TESS}\simeq10^{29}$-$10^{33}$\,erg. The slope of the distribution indicates that the time-averaged flare energy budget is dominated by rare, high-energy events rather than by the more numerous low-energy flares. Moreover, we found that strong flares with energies $E_\mathrm{TESS} > 10^{32}$~erg occur once every 25 days, about an order of magnitude more frequently than inferred from previous TRAPPIST-1/analog FFD estimates. This elevated rate of energetic flares has important implications for atmospheric escape, photochemistry, and habitability assessments of the TRAPPIST-1 planets.

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Unlocking HST's Stellar Treasure Trove: Stellar Activity Minima for HAT-P-11 Offer Prime Windows for Transmission Spectroscopy

HAT-P-11 is a well-studied, active K dwarf hosting an eccentric, misaligned transiting sub-Neptune. As part of the HST Stellar Treasure Trove program (HST-AR-17551), we analyze absolutely calibrated out-of-transit \HST{} spectra from \texttt{STIS} and \texttt{WFC3} across the \textsc{G430L}, \textsc{G750L}, \textsc{G102}, and \textsc{G141} bandpasses to constrain the surface heterogeneity of HAT-P-11 and its impact on transmission spectroscopy. Grid-based spectral retrievals using NewEra \texttt{PHOENIX} models robustly favor two-component photospheres in the \texttt{WFC3} G102 and G141 data, with a ${\sim}4950$\,K photospheric component and a cooler ($\sim$3400\,K) component covering 26{--}33\% of the stellar disk. By contrast, retrievals on the \texttt{STIS} optical spectra do not yield a satisfactory fit, reflecting current limitations of stellar atmosphere models in the optical regime compared to the \HST{} observational precision. We contextualize these results using long-term photometric monitoring and chromospheric activity indices. The inferred high spot covering fractions are broadly consistent with the elevated photometric variability observed during the \textit{Kepler} era ($f_{\rm spot}$$\sim$10--20\%) but are in tension with the much lower rotational amplitudes observed from TESS in the mid 2020s ($f_{\rm spot}$$\sim$1--10\%). This secular decline in variability is mirrored by a $\sim$20\% decrease in the Ca\,\textsc{ii} H\&K index. These results imply that HAT-P-11 undergoes comparatively quiescent phases that offer more favorable windows for atmospheric characterization, which serendipitously coincided with some of the recent JWST observations. More generally, our study demonstrates that multi-epoch, space-based stellar spectra provides a physically grounded pathway for mitigating stellar contamination in high-precision transmission spectra in the JWST era.

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NASA's Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-Infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4--0.7 $\mu$m) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9--1.6 $\mu$m) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora's year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora's anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD~209458~b, HD~189733~b, WASP-80~b, HAT-P-18~b, and K2-18~b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as $\sim$1.0\,dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H$_2$O and CH$_4$. Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the near-infrared can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

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Characterizing the Time Variability of 2M1207 A+b with JWST NIRSpec/PRISM

We present JWST NIRSpec/PRISM IFU time-resolved observations of 2M1207 A and b (TWA 27), a $\sim 10$ Myr binary system consisting of a $\sim 2500$ K sub-stellar primary hosting a $\sim 1300$ K companion. Our data provide 20 time-resolved spectra over an observation spanning 12.56 hours. We provide an empirical characterization for the spectra of both objects across time. For 2M1207 A, non-linear trend models are statistically favored within the ranges 0.6-2.3 $\mu$m and 3.8-5.3 $\mu$m. However, most of the periods constrained from sinusoidal models exceed the observing window, setting a lower limit of 12.56 hours. We find the data at H$\alpha$ and beyond 4.35 $\mu$m show a moderate time correlation, as well as a pair of light curves at 0.73-0.80 $\mu$m and 3.36-3.38 $\mu$m. For 2M1207 b, light curves integrated across 0.86-1.77 $\mu$m and 3.29-4.34 $\mu$m support linear trend models. Following the interpretation of Zhang et. al. (2025), we model the 2M1207 b data with two 1D atmospheric components, both with silicate and iron condensates. The model of time variability as changes to the cloud filling factor shows broad consistency with the variability amplitudes derived from our data. Our amplitudes, however, disagree with the models at $\approx$0.86-1 $\mu$m. While an additional model component such as rainout chemistry may be considered here, our analysis is limited by a low signal-to-noise ratio. Our results demonstrate the capability of JWST to simultaneously monitor the spectral variability of a planetary-mass companion and host at low contrast.

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Bioverse: Assessing the Ability of Direct Imaging Surveys to Empirically Constrain the Habitable Zone via Trends in Albedo

Will future direct imaging missions such as NASA's upcoming Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) be able to understand Earth-sized planets as a population? In this study, we simulate the ability of space-based coronagraphy missions to uncover trends in planetary albedo as a function of instellation, and potentially constrain the boundaries of the habitable zone. We adapt the Bioverse statistical comparative planetology framework to simulate the scientific output of possible designs for HWO. With this tool, we generate a synthetic planetary population with injected population-level trends in albedo and simulate the observability of planets. We then determine the statistical power to which these trends can be recovered as a function of the strength of the injected trend and the sample size of Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone (exoEarths). The strongest trends in albedo require a sample size of roughly 25-30 exoEarths to recover with high confidence. However, for weaker albedo trends, the required number of planets increases rapidly. If a mission is designed to meet the Decadal Survey's requirement of 25 exoEarths, it would be able to recover very strong trends in albedo associated with the habitable zone, but would struggle to confidently detect weaker trends. We explore multiple strategies to increase one's ability to recover weak trends, such as reducing the uncertainties in observables, incorporating additional observables such as planet colors, and obtaining direct constraints on planetary albedo from full spectral retrievals.

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Wide Separation Planets In Time (WISPIT): Discovery of a Gap H$\alpha$ Protoplanet WISPIT 2b with MagAO-X

Excellent (<25 mas) H$_{\alpha}$ images of the star TYC 5709-354-1 led to the discovery of a rare H$_{\alpha}$ protoplanet. This star was discovered by the WISPIT survey to have a large multi-ring transitional disk, and is hereafter WISPIT 2. Our H$_{\alpha}$ images of 2025, April 13 and April 16 discovered an accreting (H$_{\alpha}$ in emission) protoplanet: WISPIT 2b (r=309.43$\pm$1.56 mas; (~54 au deprojected), PA=242.21$\pm$0.41 degrees) likely clearing a dust-free gap between the two brightest dust rings in the transitional disk. Our SNR=12.5 detection gave an H$_{\alpha}$ ASDI contrast of (6.5$\pm$0.5)x10$^{-4}$ and a H$_{\alpha}$ line flux of (1.29$\pm$0.28)x10$^{-15}$ erg/s/cm$^2$. We also present L' photometry from LBT/LMIRcam of the planet (L'=15.30$\pm$0.05 mag) which, when coupled with an age of 5.1$^{+2.4}_{-1.3}$ Myr, yields a planet mass estimate of 5.3$\pm$1.0 Mjup from the DUSTY evolutionary models. WISPIT 2b is accreting at 2.25$^{-0.17}_{+3.75}$x10$^{-12}$ Msun/yr. WISPIT 2b is very similar to the other H$_{\alpha}$ protoplanets in terms of mass, age, flux, and accretion rate. The inclination of the system (${\it i}$=44 degrees) is also, surprisingly, very similar to the other known H$\alpha$ protoplanet systems which all cluster from 37$\leq{\it i}\leq$52 degrees. We argue this clustering has only a ~1.0% (2.6 sigma) probability of occurring randomly, and so we speculate that magnetospherical accretion might have a preferred inclination range (~37-52 degrees) for the direct (cloud free, low extinction) line of sight to the H-alpha line formation/shock region. We also find at 110mas (~15au deprojected) a close companion candidate (CC1) which may be consistent with an inner dusty 9$\pm$4 Mjup planet.

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A Terminology and Quantitative Framework for Assessing the Habitability of Solar System and Extraterrestrial Worlds

The search for extraterrestrial life in the Solar System and beyond is a key science driver in astrobiology, planetary science, and astrophysics. A critical step is the identification and characterization of potential habitats, both to guide the search and to interpret its results. However, a well-accepted, self-consistent, flexible, and quantitative terminology and method of assessment of habitability are lacking. Our paper fills this gap based on a three year-long study by the NExSS Quantitative Habitability Science Working Group. We reviewed past studies of habitability, but find that the lack of a universally valid definition of life prohibits a universally applicable definition of habitability. A more nuanced approach is needed. We introduce a quantitative habitability assessment framework (QHF) that enables self-consistent, probabilistic assessment of the compatibility of two models: First, a habitat model, which describes the probability distributions of key conditions in the habitat. Second, a viability model, which describes the probability that a metabolism is viable given a set of environmental conditions. We provide an open-source implementation of this framework and four examples as a proof of concept: (a) Comparison of two exoplanets for observational target prioritization; (b) Interpretation of atmospheric O2 detection in two exoplanets; (c) Subsurface habitability of Mars; and (d) Ocean habitability in Europa. These examples demonstrate that our framework can self-consistently inform astrobiology research over a broad range of questions. The proposed framework is modular so that future work can expand the range and complexity of models available, both for habitats and for metabolisms.

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Three Years of High-Contrast Imaging of the PDS 70 b and c Exoplanets at H{\alpha} with MagAO-X: Evidence of Strong Protoplanet H{\alpha} Variability and Circumplanetary Dust

We present 3 years of high-contrast imaging of the PDS 70 b and c accreting protoplanets with the new extreme AO system MagAO-X as part of the MaxProtoPlanetS survey of H$\alpha$ protoplanets. In 2023 and 2024 our sharp (25-27 mas FWHM); well AO corrected (20-26% Strehl), deep (2-3.6hr) images detect compact (r~30 mas; r~3 au) circumplanetary disks (CPDs) surrounding both protoplanets. Starlight scattering off the dusty outer edges of these CPDs is the likely source of the bright compact continuum light detected within ~30 mas of both planets in our simultaneously obtained continuum 668 nm filter images. After subtraction of contaminating continuum and PSF residuals with pyKLIP ADI and SDI we obtained high-contrast ASDI H$\alpha$ images of both planets in 2022, 2023 and 2024. We find the H$\alpha$ line flux of planet b fell by (8.1$\pm$1.6)x10$^{-16}$ ergs/s/cm$^2$ a factor of 4.6 drop in flux from 2022 to 2023. In March 2024, planet b continued to be faint with just a slight 1.6x rise to an H$\alpha$ line flux of (3.64$\pm$0.87)x10$^{-16}$ ergs/s/cm$^2$. For c we measure a significant increase of (2.74$\pm$0.51)x10$^{-16}$ ergs/s/cm$^2$ from 2023 to 2024 which is a factor of 2.3x increase. So both protoplanets have recently experienced significant H$\alpha$ variability with ~1 yr sampling. In 2024, planet c is brighter than b: as c is brightening and b generally fading. We also tentatively detect one new point source "CC3" inside the inner disk (~49 mas; at PA~295 deg; 2024) with orbital motion roughly consistent with a ~5.6 au orbit.

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The only inflated brown dwarf in an eclipsing white dwarf-brown dwarf binary: WD1032+011B

Due to their short orbital periods and relatively high flux ratios, irradiated brown dwarfs in binaries with white dwarfs offer better opportunities to study irradiated atmospheres than hot Jupiters, which have lower planet-to-star flux ratios. WD1032+011 is an eclipsing, tidally locked white dwarf-brown dwarf binary with a 9950 K white dwarf orbited by a 69.7 M$_{Jup}$ brown dwarf in a 0.09 day orbit. We present time-resolved Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 spectrophotometric data of WD1032+011. We isolate the phase-dependent spectra of WD1032+011B, finding a 210 K difference in brightness temperature between the dayside and nightside. The spectral type of the brown dwarf is identified as L1 peculiar, with atmospheric retrievals and comparison to field brown dwarfs showing evidence for a cloud-free atmosphere. The retrieved temperature of the dayside is $1748^{+66}_{-67}$ K, with a nightside temperature of $1555^{+76}_{-62}$ K, showing an irradiation-driven temperature contrast coupled with inefficient heat redistribution from the dayside to the nightside. The brown dwarf radius is inflated, likely due to the constant irradiation from the white dwarf, making it the only known inflated brown dwarf in an eclipsing white dwarf-brown dwarf binary.

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Scalable, Advanced Machine Learning-based Approaches for Stellar Flare Identification: Application to TESS short-cadence Data and Analysis of a New Flare Catalogue

We apply multi-algorithm machine learning models to TESS 2-minute survey data from Sectors 1-72 to identify stellar flares. Models trained with Deep Neural Network, Random Forest, and XGBoost algorithms, respectively, utilized four flare light curve characteristics as input features. Model performance is evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, all exceeding 94%. Validation against previously reported TESS M dwarf flare identifications showed that our models successfully recovered over 92% of the flares while detecting $\sim2,000$ more small events, thus extending the detection sensitivity of previous work. After processing 1.3 million light curves, our models identified nearly 18,000 flare stars and 250,000 flares. We present an extensive catalog documenting both flare and stellar properties. We find strong correlations in total flare energy and flare amplitude with color, in agreement with previous studies. Flare frequency distributions are analyzed, refining power-law slopes for flare behavior with the frequency uncertainties due to the detection incompleteness of low-amplitude events. We determine rotation periods for $\sim120,000$ stars thus yielding the relationship between rotation period and flare activity. We find that the transition in rotation period between the saturated and unsaturated regimes in flare energy coincides with the same transition in rotation period separating the saturated and unsaturated levels in coronal X-ray emission. We find that X-ray emission increases more rapidly with flare luminosity in earlier-type and unsaturated stars, indicating more efficient coronal heating in these objects. Additionally, we detect flares in white dwarfs and hot subdwarfs that are likely arising from unresolved low-mass companions.

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An Analytic Characterization of the Limb Asymmetry -- Transit Time Degeneracy

Atmospheres are not spatially homogeneous. This is particularly true for hot, tidally locked exoplanets with large day-to-night temperature variations, which can yield significant differences between the morning and evening terminators -- known as limb asymmetry. Current transit observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are precise enough to disentangle the separate contributions of these morning and evening limbs to the overall transmission spectrum in certain circumstances. However, the signature of limb asymmetry in a transit light curve is highly degenerate with uncertainty in the planet's time of conjunction. This raises the question of how precisely transit times must be measured to enable accurate studies of limb asymmetry, in particular with JWST. Although this degeneracy has been discussed in the literature, a general description of it has not been presented. In this work, we show how this degeneracy results from apparent changes in the transit contact times when the planetary disk has asymmetric limb sizes. We derive a general formula relating the magnitude of limb asymmetry to the amount by which it would cause the apparent time of conjunction to vary, which can reach tens of seconds. Comparing our formula to simulated observations, we find that numerical fitting techniques add additional bias to the measured time, of generally less than a second, resulting from the occultation geometry. We also derive an analytical formula for this extra numerical bias. These formulae can be applied to planning new observations or interpreting literature measurements, and we show examples for commonly studied exoplanets.

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Challenge of direct imaging of exoplanets within structures: disentangling real signal from point source from background light

The high contrast and spatial resolution requirements for directly imaging exoplanets requires effective coordination of wavefront control, coronagraphy, observation techniques, and post-processing algorithms. However, even with this suite of tools, identifying and retrieving exoplanet signals embedded in resolved scattered light regions can be extremely challenging due to the increased noise from scattered light off the circumstellar disk and the potential misinterpretation of the true nature of the detected signal. This issue pertains not only to imaging terrestrial planets in habitable zones within zodiacal and exozodiacal emission but also to young planets embedded in circumstellar, transitional, and debris disks. This is particularly true for H{\alpha} detection of exoplanets in transitional disks. This work delves into recent H{\alpha} observations of three transitional disks systems with MagAO-X, an extreme adaptive optics system for the 6.5-meter Magellan Clay telescope. We employed angular differential imaging (ADI) and simultaneous spectral differential imaging (SSDI) in combination with KLIP, a PCA algorithm in post-processing, for optimal starlight suppression and quasi-static noise removal. We discuss the challenges in protoplanet identification with MagAO-X in environments rich with scattered and reflected light from disk structures and explore a potential solution for removing noise contributions from real astronomical objects with current observation and post-processing techniques.

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Sensitivity and Performance of LBTI/NOMIC Spectroscopy: Prospects for 10- and 30-meter class Mid-IR Exoplanet Science

Long wavelength infrared (8-13 $\mu$m) spectroscopy is invaluable for detecting molecular features in the atmospheres of gas giant and terrestrial exoplanets. The nulling-optimized mid-infrared camera (NOMIC) on the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) has a low resolution (R$\sim$200) germanium grism that was previously installed but has not been characterized and commissioned for scientific observations. Using a 1.27 mm slit and broadband filter in combination with the grism, the infrared window between 8-13 $\mu$m can be captured. We describe initial on sky testing of the LBTI/NOMIC grism mode with adaptive optics to study standard stars and binaries. We discuss the impact of observational strategy and telluric calibration on the spectral reduction process. We infer the impact of existing mid-infrared detectors on NOMIC's spectroscopic mode and discuss requirements to enable higher resolution 8-13 $\mu$m spectroscopy on current and future facilities.

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Interior convection regime, host star luminosity, and predicted atmospheric CO2 abundance in terrestrial exoplanets

Terrestrial planets in the Habitable Zone of Sun-like stars are priority targets for detection and observation by the next generation of space telescopes. Earth's long-term habitability may have been tied to the geological carbon cycle, a process critically facilitated by plate tectonics. In the modern Earth, plate motion corresponds to a mantle convection regime called mobile-lid. The alternate, stagnant-lid regime is found on Mars and Venus, which may have lacked strong enough weathering feedbacks to sustain surface liquid water over geological timescales if initially present. Constraining observational strategies able to infer the most common regime in terrestrial exoplanets requires quantitative predictions of the atmospheric composition of planets in either regime. We use endmember models of volcanic outgassing and crust weathering for the stagnant- and mobile-lid convection regimes, that we couple to models of atmospheric chemistry and climate, and ocean chemistry to simulate the atmospheric evolution of these worlds in the Habitable Zone. In our simulations under the two alternate regimes, we find that the fraction of planets possessing climates consistent with surface liquid water is virtually the same. Despite this unexpected similarity, we predict that a mission capable of detecting atmospheric CO2 abundance above 0.1 bar in 25 terrestrial exoplanets is extremely likely (>95% of samples) to infer the dominant interior convection regime in that sample with strong evidence (10:1 odds). This offers guidance for the specifications of the Habitable Worlds Observatory NASA concept mission and other future missions capable of probing samples of habitable exoplanets.

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