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arXiv · 2605.05468

A single power law for the TRAPPIST-1 flare distribution across four orders of magnitude in energy

Valeriy Vasilyev·Alexander I. Shapiro·Nadiia Kostogryz·Chia-Lung Lin·Greg Kopp·Benjamin V. Rackham·Astrid M. Veronig·Olivia Lim·Julien de Wit·Daniel Apai·Laurent Gizon·Sami K. Solanki·Sara Seager
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Abstract

TRAPPIST-1 is an ultra-cool dwarf that flares frequently. These flares shape the surrounding planets' high-energy irradiation environments, with consequences for atmospheric chemistry and escape, and they can contaminate transmission spectroscopy of those planets. A quantitative flare-frequency distribution (FFD) spanning the full energy range is therefore essential for both interpreting JWST spectra and modeling the planets' irradiation histories. Here we present a unified FFD over four orders of magnitude in energy by jointly analyzing $\approx$87\,hr of JWST/NIRISS and JWST/NIRSpec time-series spectroscopy together with $\approx$74\,days of \textit{Kepler}/K2 photometry. To enable a consistent comparison across these heterogeneous datasets, we convert all events to energies in the TESS bandpass. For the Kepler-to-TESS conversion we adopt a cooler flare continuum appropriate for ultra-cool dwarfs ($T_{\rm flare}=3500$\,K). After correcting for flare-detection sensitivities, the combined JWST+K2 cumulative FFD is consistent with a single power law, $N(\ge E_\mathrm{TESS})\propto E_\mathrm{TESS}^{-\beta}$, with $\beta=0.753$ over $E_{\rm TESS}\simeq10^{29}$-$10^{33}$\,erg. The slope of the distribution indicates that the time-averaged flare energy budget is dominated by rare, high-energy events rather than by the more numerous low-energy flares. Moreover, we found that strong flares with energies $E_\mathrm{TESS} > 10^{32}$~erg occur once every 25 days, about an order of magnitude more frequently than inferred from previous TRAPPIST-1/analog FFD estimates. This elevated rate of energetic flares has important implications for atmospheric escape, photochemistry, and habitability assessments of the TRAPPIST-1 planets.

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Valeriy Vasilyev, Alexander I. Shapiro, Nadiia Kostogryz, Chia-Lung Lin, Greg Kopp, Benjamin V. Rackham, Astrid M. Veronig, Olivia Lim, Julien de Wit, Daniel Apai, Laurent Gizon, Sami K. Solanki, Sara Seager. 2026-05-06. A single power law for the TRAPPIST-1 flare distribution across four orders of magnitude in energy. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05468

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