arXiv subjects

Daniel E. Holz

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel E. Holz.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Where are LIGO's Big Black Holes?

In LIGO's O1 and O2 observational runs, the detectors were sensitive to stellar mass binary black hole coalescences with component masses up to $100\,M_\odot$, with binaries with primary masses above $40\,M_\odot$ representing $\gtrsim90\%$ of the total accessible sensitive volume. Nonetheless, of the 5.9 detections (GW150914, LVT151012, GW151226, GW170104, GW170608, GW170814) reported by LIGO-Virgo, the most massive binary detected was GW150914 with a primary component mass of $\sim36\,M_\odot$, far below the detection mass limit. Furthermore, there are theoretical arguments in favor of an upper mass gap, predicting an absence of black holes in the mass range $50\lesssim M\lesssim135\,M_\odot$. We argue that the absence of detected binary systems with component masses heavier than $\sim40\,M_\odot$ may be preliminary evidence for this upper mass gap. By allowing for the presence of a mass gap, we find weaker constraints on the shape of the underlying mass distribution of binary black holes. We fit a power-law distribution with an upper mass cutoff to real and simulated BBH mass measurements, finding that the first 3.9 BBHs favor shallow power law slopes $α\lesssim 3$ and an upper mass cutoff $M_\mathrm{max} \sim 40\,M_\odot$. This inferred distribution is entirely consistent with the two recently reported detections, GW170608 and GW170814. We show that with $\sim10$ additional LIGO-Virgo BBH detections, fitting the BH mass distribution will provide strong evidence for an upper mass gap if one exists.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Using spin to understand the formation of LIGO's black holes

With the detection of four candidate binary black hole (BBH) mergers by the Advanced LIGO detectors thus far, it is becoming possible to constrain the properties of the BBH merger population in order to better understand the formation of these systems. Black hole (BH) spin orientations are one of the cleanest discriminators of formation history, with BHs in dynamically formed binaries in dense stellar environments expected to have spins distributed isotropically, in contrast to isolated populations where stellar evolution is expected to induce BH spins preferentially aligned with the orbital angular momentum. In this work we propose a simple, model-agnostic approach to characterizing the spin properties of LIGO's BBH population. Using measurements of the effective spin of the binaries, which is LIGO's best constrained spin parameter, we introduce a simple parameter to quantify the fraction of the population that is isotropically distributed, regardless of the spin magnitude distribution of the population. Once the orientation characteristics of the population have been determined, we show how measurements of effective spin can be used to directly constrain the underlying BH spin magnitude distribution. Although we find that the majority of the current effective spin measurements are too small to be informative, with LIGO's four BBH candidates we find a slight preference for an underlying population with aligned spins over one with isotropic spins (with an odds ratio of 1.1). We argue that it will be possible to distinguish symmetric and anti-symmetric populations at high confidence with tens of additional detections, although mixed populations may take significantly more detections to disentangle. We also derive preliminary spin magnitude distributions for LIGO's black holes, under the assumption of aligned or isotropic populations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Statistical Gravitational Waveform Models: What to Simulate Next?

Models of gravitational waveforms play a critical role in detecting and characterizing the gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary coalescences. Waveforms from numerical relativity (NR), while highly accurate, are too computationally expensive to produce to be directly used with Bayesian parameter estimation tools like Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo and nested sampling. We propose a Gaussian process regression (GPR) method to generate accurate reduced-order-model waveforms based only on existing accurate (e.g. NR) simulations. Using a training set of simulated waveforms, our GPR approach produces interpolated waveforms along with uncertainties across the parameter space. As a proof of concept, we use a training set of IMRPhenomD waveforms to build a GPR model in the 2-d parameter space of mass ratio $q$ and equal-and-aligned spin $χ_1=χ_2$. Using a regular, equally-spaced grid of 120 IMRPhenomD training waveforms in $q\in[1,3]$ and $χ_1 \in [-0.5,0.5]$, the GPR mean approximates IMRPhenomD in this space to mismatches below $4.3\times 10^{-5}$. Our approach can alternatively use training waveforms directly from numerical relativity. Beyond interpolation of waveforms, we also present a greedy algorithm that utilizes the errors provided by our GPR model to optimize the placement of future simulations. In a fiducial test case we find that using the greedy algorithm to iteratively add simulations achieves GPR errors that are $\sim 1$ order of magnitude lower than the errors from using Latin-hypercube or square training grids.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Are LIGO's Black Holes Made From Smaller Black Holes?

One proposed formation channel for stellar mass black holes (BHs) is through hierarchical mergers of smaller BHs. Repeated mergers between comparable mass BHs leave an imprint on the spin of the resulting BH, since the final BH spin is largely determined by the orbital angular momentum of the binary. We find that for stellar mass BHs forming hierarchically the distribution of spin magnitudes is universal, with a peak at $a \sim 0.7$ and little support below $a \sim 0.5$. We show that the spin distribution is robust against changes to the mass ratio of the merging binaries, the initial spin distribution of the first generation of BHs, and the number of merger generations. While we assume an isotropic distribution of initial spin directions, spins that are preferentially aligned or antialigned do not qualitatively change our results. We also consider a "cluster catastrophe" model for BH formation in which we allow for mergers of arbitrary mass ratios and show that this scenario predicts a unique spin distribution that is similar to the universal distribution derived for major majors. We explore the ability of spin measurements from ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors to constrain hierarchical merger scenarios. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model to mock GW data and argue that the fraction of BHs that formed through hierarchical mergers will be constrained with $\mathcal{O}(100)$ LIGO binary black hole detections, while with $\mathcal{O}(10)$ detections we could falsify a model in which all component BHs form hierarchically.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Detecting Ancient Supernovae at z ~ 5 - 12 with CLASH

Supernovae are important probes of the properties of stars at high redshifts because they can be detected at early epochs and their masses can be inferred from their light curves. Finding the first cosmic explosions in the universe will only be possible with the James Webb Space Telescope, the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope and the next generation of extremely large telescopes. But strong gravitational lensing by massive clusters, like those in the Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble (CLASH), could reveal such events now by magnifying their flux by factors of 10 or more. We find that CLASH will likely discover at least 2 - 3 core-collapse supernovae at 5 < z < 12 and perhaps as many as ten. Future surveys of cluster lenses similar in scope to CLASH by the James Webb Space Telescope might find hundreds of these events out to z ~ 15 - 17. Besides revealing the masses of early stars, these ancient supernovae will also constrain cosmic star formation rates in the era of first galaxy formation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Finding the One: Identifying the Host Galaxies of Gravitational-Wave Sources

We explore the localization of compact binary coalescences with ground-based gravitational-wave detector networks. We simulate tens of thousands of binary events, and present the distributions of localization sky areas and localization volumes for a range of sources and network configurations. We show that generically there exists a tail of particularly well-localized events, with 2D and 3D localizations of $<10\,\mbox{deg}^2$ and $<1000\,\mbox{Mpc}^3$ achievable, respectively, starting in LIGO/Virgo's third observing run. Incorporating estimates for the galaxy density and the binary event rates, we argue that future gravitational-wave detector networks will localize a small number of binary systems per year to a sufficiently small volume that the unique host galaxy might be identified. For these golden events, which are generally the closest and loudest ones, the gravitational-wave detector networks will point (in 3D; the length of the finger matters) directly at the source. This will allow for studies of the properties of the host galaxies of compact binary mergers, which may be an important component in exploring the formation channels of these sources. In addition, since the host will provide an independent measurement of the redshift, this will allow the use of the event as a standard siren to measure cosmology. Furthermore, identification of a small number of host galaxies can enable deep follow-up searches for associated electromagnetic transients.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Observational Selection Effects with Ground-based Gravitational Wave Detectors

Ground-based interferometers are not perfectly all-sky instruments, and it is important to account for their behavior when considering the distribution of detected events. In particular, the LIGO detectors are most sensitive to sources above North America and the Indian Ocean and, as the Earth rotates, the sensitive regions are swept across the sky. However, because the detectors do not acquire data uniformly over time, there is a net bias on detectable sources' right ascensions. Both LIGO detectors preferentially collect data during their local night; it is more than twice as likely to be local midnight than noon when both detectors are operating. We discuss these selection effects and how they impact LIGO's observations and electromagnetic follow-up. Beyond galactic foregrounds associated with seasonal variations, we find that equatorial observatories can access over $80\%$ of the localization probability, while mid-latitudes will access closer to $70\%$. Facilities located near the two LIGO sites can observe sources closer to their zenith than their analogs in the South, but the average observation will still be no closer than $44^\circ$ from zenith. We also find that observatories in Africa or the South Atlantic will wait systematically longer before they can begin observing compared to the rest of the world, although there is a preference for longitudes near the LIGOs. These effects, along with knowledge of the LIGO antenna pattern, can inform electromagnetic follow-up activities and optimization, including the possibility of directing observations even before gravitational-wave events occur.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

The first gravitational-wave source from the isolated evolution of two 40-100 Msun stars

The merger of two massive 30 Msun black holes has been detected in gravitational waves (1,GW150914). This discovery validates recent predictions (2-4) that massive binary black holes would constitute the first detection. However, previous calculations have not sampled the relevant binary black hole progenitors---massive, low-metallicity binary stars---with sufficient accuracy and input physics to enable robust predictions to better than several orders of magnitude (5-10). Here we report a suite of high-precision numerical simulations of binary black hole formation via the evolution of isolated binary stars, providing a framework to interpret GW150914 and predict the properties of subsequent binary black hole gravitational-wave events. Our models imply that these events form in an environment where the metallicity is less than 10 percent of solar; have initial masses of 40-100 Msun; and interact through mass transfer and a common envelope phase. Their progenitors likely form either at 2 Gyr, or somewhat less likely, at 11 Gyr after the Big Bang. Most binary black holes form without supernova explosions, and their spins are nearly unchanged since birth, but do not have to be parallel. The classical field formation of binary black holes proposed in this study, with low natal kicks and restricted common envelope evolution, produces 40 times more binary black holes than dynamical formation channels involving globular clusters (11) and is comparable to the rate from homogeneous evolution channels (12-15). Our calculations predict detections of about 1,000 black hole mergers per year with total mass of 20-80 Msun once second generation ground-based gravitational wave observatories reach full sensitivity.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Compact Binary Merger Rates: Comparison with LIGO/Virgo Upper Limits

We compare evolutionary predictions of double compact object merger rate densities with initial and forthcoming LIGO/Virgo upper limits. We find that: (i) Due to the cosmological reach of advanced detectors, current conversion methods of population synthesis predictions into merger rate densities are insufficient. (ii) Our optimistic models are a factor of 18 below the initial LIGO/Virgo upper limits for BH-BH systems, indicating that a modest increase in observational sensitivity (by a factor of 2.5) may bring the first detections or first gravitational wave constraints on binary evolution. (iii) Stellar-origin massive BH-BH mergers should dominate event rates in advanced LIGO/Virgo and can be detected out to redshift z=2 with templates including inspiral, merger, and ringdown. Normal stars (<150 Msun) can produce such mergers with total redshifted mass up to 400 Msun. (iv) High black hole natal kicks can severely limit the formation of massive BH-BH systems (both in isolated binary and in dynamical dense cluster evolution), and thus would eliminate detection of these systems even at full advanced LIGO/Virgo sensitivity. We find that low and high black hole natal kicks are allowed by current observational electromagnetic constraints. (v) The majority of our models yield detections of all types of mergers (NS-NS, BH-NS, BH-BH) with advanced detectors. Numerous massive BH-BH merger detections will indicate small (if any) natal kicks for massive BHs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Facilitating follow-up of LIGO-Virgo events using rapid sky localization

Fast and effective localization of gravitational wave (GW) events could play a crucial role in identifying possible electromagnetic counterparts, and thereby help usher in an era of GW multi-messenger astronomy. We discuss an algorithm for accurate and very low latency ($<$ 1 second) localization of GW sources using only the relative times of arrival, relative phases, and relative signal-to-noise ratios for pairs of detectors. The algorithm is independent of distances and masses to leading order, and can be generalized to all discrete sources detected by ground-based detector networks. Our approach, while developed independently, is similar to that of BAYESTAR with a few modifications in the algorithm which result in increased computational efficiency. For the LIGO two detector configuration (Hanford+Livingston) expected in late 2015 we find a median 50\% (90\%) localization of 143 deg$^2$ (558 deg$^2$) for binary neutron stars (for network SNR threshold of 12, corresponding to a horizon distance of $\sim 130$ Mpc), consistent with previous findings. We explore the improvement in localization resulting from high SNR events, finding that the loudest out of the first 4 (or 10) events reduces the median sky localization area by a factor of 1.9 (3.0) for the case of 2 GW detectors, and 2.2 (4.0) for 3 detectors. We consider the case of multi-messenger joint detections in both the GW and the electromagnetic (EM) spectra. We specifically explore the case of independent, and possibly highly uncertain, localizations, showing that the joint localization area is significantly reduced. We also show that a prior on the binary inclination, potentially arising from GRB observations, has a negligible effect on GW localization. Our algorithm is simple, fast, and accurate, and may be of particular utility in the development of multi-messenger astronomy.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

Neutron stars versus black holes: probing the mass gap with LIGO/Virgo

Inspirals and mergers of black hole (BHs) and/or neutron star (NSs) binaries are expected to be abundant sources for ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors. We assess the capabilities of Advanced LIGO and Virgo to measure component masses using inspiral waveform models including spin-precession effects using a large ensemble of GW sources {\bf randomly oriented and distributed uniformly in volume. For 1000 sources this yields signal-to-noise ratios between 7 and 200}. We make quantitative predictions for how well LIGO and Virgo will distinguish between BHs and NSs and appraise the prospect of using LIGO/Virgo observations to definitively confirm, or reject, the existence of a putative "mass gap" between NSs ($m\leq3\ M_\odot$) and BHs ($m\geq 5\ M_\odot$). We find sources with the smaller mass component satisfying $m_2 \lesssim1.5\ M_\odot$ to be unambiguously identified as containing at least one NS, while systems with $m_2\gtrsim6\ M_\odot$ will be confirmed binary BHs. Binary BHs with $m_2<5\ M_\odot$ (i.e., in the gap) cannot generically be distinguished from NSBH binaries. High-mass NSs ($2<m<3$ $M_\odot$) are often consistent with low-mass BH ($m<5\ M_\odot$), posing a challenge for determining the maximum NS mass from LIGO/Virgo observations alone. Individual sources will seldom be measured well enough to confirm objects in the mass gap and statistical inferences drawn from the detected population will be strongly dependent on the underlying distribution. If nature happens to provide a mass distribution with the populations relatively cleanly separated in chirp mass space, as some population synthesis models suggest, then NSs and BHs are more easily distinguishable.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

The Loudest Gravitational Wave Events

As first emphasized by Bernard Schutz, there exists a universal distribution of signal-to-noise ratios for gravitational wave detection. Because gravitational waves (GWs) are almost impossible to obscure via dust absorption or other astrophysical processes, the strength of the detected signal is dictated solely by the emission strength and the distance to the source. Assuming that the space density of an arbitrary population of GW sources does not evolve, we show explicitly that the distribution of detected signal-to-noise (SNR) values depends solely on the detection threshold; it is independent of the detector network (interferometer or pulsar timing array), the individual detector noise curves (initial or Advanced LIGO), the nature of the GW sources (compact binary coalescence, supernova, or some other discrete source), and the distributions of source variables (only non-spinning neutron stars of mass exactly $1.4\,M_\odot$ or a complicated distribution of masses and spins). We derive the SNR distribution for each individual detector within a network as a function of the relative detector orientations and sensitivities. While most detections will have SNR near the detection threshold, there will be a tail of events to higher SNR. We derive the SNR distribution of the loudest (highest SNR) events in any given sample of detections. We find that the median SNR of the loudest out of the first four events should have an $\mbox{SNR}=22$ (for a threshold of 12, appropriate for the Advanced LIGO/Virgo network), increasing to a median value for the loudest SNR of 47 for 40 detections. We expect these loudest events to provide particularly powerful constraints on their source parameters, and they will play an important role in extracting astrophysics from gravitational wave sources. These distributions also offer an important internal calibration of the response of the GW detector networks.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2014

Dark Sky Simulations: Early Data Release

The Dark Sky Simulations are an ongoing series of cosmological N-body simulations designed to provide a quantitative and accessible model of the evolution of the large-scale Universe. Such models are essential for many aspects of the study of dark matter and dark energy, since we lack a sufficiently accurate analytic model of non-linear gravitational clustering. In July 2014, we made available to the general community our early data release, consisting of over 55 Terabytes of simulation data products, including our largest simulation to date, which used $1.07 \times 10^{12}~(10240^3)$ particles in a volume $8h^{-1}\mathrm{Gpc}$ across. Our simulations were performed with 2HOT, a purely tree-based adaptive N-body method, running on 200,000 processors of the Titan supercomputer, with data analysis enabled by yt. We provide an overview of the derived halo catalogs, mass function, power spectra and light cone data. We show self-consistency in the mass function and mass power spectrum at the 1% level over a range of more than 1000 in particle mass. We also present a novel method to distribute and access very large datasets, based on an abstraction of the World Wide Web (WWW) as a file system, remote memory-mapped file access semantics, and a space-filling curve index. This method has been implemented for our data release, and provides a means to not only query stored results such as halo catalogs, but also to design and deploy new analysis techniques on large distributed datasets.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2014

The Formation and Gravitational-Wave Detection of Massive Stellar Black-Hole Binaries

If binaries consisting of two 100 Msun black holes exist they would serve as extraordinarily powerful gravitational-wave sources, detectable to redshifts of z=2 with the advanced LIGO/Virgo ground-based detectors. Large uncertainties about the evolution of massive stars preclude definitive rate predictions for mergers of these massive black holes. We show that rates as high as hundreds of detections per year, or as low as no detections whatsoever, are both possible. It was thought that the only way to produce these massive binaries was via dynamical interactions in dense stellar systems. This view has been challenged by the recent discovery of several stars with mass above 150 Msun in the R136 region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. Current models predict that when stars of this mass leave the main sequence, their expansion is insufficient to allow common envelope evolution to efficiently reduce the orbital separation. The resulting black-hole--black-hole binary remains too wide to be able to coalesce within a Hubble time. If this assessment is correct, isolated very massive binaries do not evolve to be gravitational-wave sources. However, other formation channels exist. For example, the high multiplicity of massive stars, and their common formation in relatively dense stellar associations, opens up dynamical channels for massive black hole mergers (e.g., via Kozai cycles or repeated binary-single interactions). We identify key physical factors that shape the population of very massive black-hole--black-hole binaries. Advanced gravitational-wave detectors will provide important constraints on the formation and evolution of very massive stars.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

Comparison of LIGO/Virgo upper limits with predicted compact binary merger rates

We compare the current LIGO/Virgo upper limits on double compact object volumetric merger rates with our theoretical predictions. Our optimistic models are a factor of 3 below the existing upper limits for massive BH-BH systems with total mass 50-70 Msun, suggesting that a small increase in observational sensitivity may bring the first detections. The LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave observatories are currently being upgraded to advanced design sensitivity. If a sizeable population of BH-BH binaries is detected, the maximum total binary mass of this population will discriminate between two general families of common envelope models. If no binaries are detected, the new upper limits will provide astrophysically useful information about the environment and physical processes (e.g., metallicity of host galaxies or BH natal kicks) crucial to the formation of binaries containing black holes. For NS-NS systems, our predicted rates are 3 orders of magnitude below the current upper limits; even if advanced instruments reach their design sensitivities (factors of 10 times in distance, and 1,000 times in volumetric rate) the detection of NS-NS systems is not assured. However, we note that although our predicted NS-NS merger rates are consistent with estimates derived from Galactic NS-NS binaries and short GRBs, they are on the low side of these empirical estimates.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2013

Double Compact Objects II: Cosmological Merger Rates

The development of advanced gravitational wave (GW) observatories, such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, provides impetus to refine theoretical predictions for what these instruments might detect. In particular, with the range increasing by an order of magnitude, the search for GW sources is extending beyond the "local" Universe and out to cosmological distances. Double compact objects (neutron star-neutron star (NS-NS), black hole-neutron star (BH-NS) and black hole-black hole (BH-BH) systems) are considered to be the most promising gravitational wave sources. In addition, NS-NS and/or BH-NS systems are thought to be the progenitors of gamma ray bursts (GRBs), and may also be associated with kilonovae. In this paper we present the merger event rates of these objects as a function of cosmological redshift. We provide the results for four cases, each one investigating a different important evolution parameter of binary stars. Each case is also presented for two metallicity evolution scenarios. We find that (i) in most cases NS-NS systems dominate the merger rates in the local Universe, while BH-BH mergers dominate at high redshift; (ii) BH-NS mergers are less frequent than other sources per unit volume, for all time; and (iii) natal kicks may alter the observable properties of populations in a significant way, allowing the underlying models of binary evolution and compact object formation to be easily distinguished. This is the second paper in a series of three. The third paper will focus on calculating the detection rates of mergers by gravitational wave telescopes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2013

Finding the First Cosmic Explosions I: Pair-Instability Supernovae

The first stars are the key to the formation of primitive galaxies, early cosmological reionization and chemical enrichment, and the origin of supermassive black holes. Unfortunately, in spite of their extreme luminosities, individual Population III stars will likely remain beyond the reach of direct observation for decades to come. However, their properties could be revealed by their supernova explosions, which may soon be detected by a new generation of NIR observatories such as JWST and WFIRST. We present light curves and spectra for Pop III pair-instability supernovae calculated with the Los Alamos radiation hydrodynamics code RAGE. Our numerical simulations account for the interaction of the blast with realistic circumstellar envelopes, the opacity of the envelope, and Lyman absorption by the neutral IGM at high redshift, all of which are crucial to computing the NIR signatures of the first cosmic explosions. We find that JWST will detect pair-instability supernovae out to z > 30, WFIRST will detect them in all-sky surveys out to z ~ 15 - 20 and LSST and Pan-STARRS will find them at z ~ 7 - 8. The discovery of these ancient explosions will probe the first stellar populations and reveal the existence of primitive galaxies that might not otherwise have been detected.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2013

Determining the Hubble constant from gravitational wave observations of merging compact binaries

Recent observations have accumulated compelling evidence that some short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) are associated with the mergers of neutron star (NS) binaries. This would indicate that the SGRB event is associated with a gravitational-wave (GW) signal corresponding to the final inspiral of the compact binary. In addition, the radioactive decay of elements produced in NS binary mergers may result in transients visible in the optical and infrared with peak luminosities on hours-days timescales. Simultaneous observations of the inspiral GWs and signatures in the electromagnetic band may allow us to directly and independently determine both the luminosity distance and redshift to a binary. These standard sirens (the GW analog of standard candles) have the potential to provide an accurate measurement of the low-redshift Hubble flow. In addition, these systems are absolutely calibrated by general relativity, and therefore do not experience the same set of astrophysical systematics found in traditional standard candles, nor do the measurements rely on a distance ladder. We show that 15 observable GW and EM events should allow the Hubble constant to be measured with 5% precision using a network of detectors that includes advanced LIGO and Virgo. Measuring 30 beamed GW-SGRB events could constrain H_0 to better than 1%. When comparing to standard Gaussian likelihood analysis, we find that each event's non-Gaussian posterior in H_0 helps reduce the overall measurement errors in H_0 for an ensemble of NS binary mergers.

astro-ph.CO↗