arXiv subjects

Darin Ragozzine

Publications and source records attributed to Darin Ragozzine.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP) VI: first multi-year observations of trans-Neptunian objects

We present the first set of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) observed on multiple nights in data taken from the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP). Of these 110 TNOs, 105 do not coincide with previously known TNOs and appear to be new discoveries. Each individual detection for our objects resulted from a digital tracking search at TNO rates of motion, using two to four hour exposure sets, and the detections were subsequently linked across multiple observing seasons. This procedure allows us to find objects with magnitudes $m_{VR} \approx 26$. The object discovery processing also included a comprehensive population of objects injected into the images, with a recovery and linking rate of at least $94\%$. The final orbits were obtained using a specialized orbit fitting procedure that accounts for the positional errors derived from the digital tracking procedure. Our results include robust orbits and magnitudes for classical TNOs with absolute magnitudes $H \sim 10$, as well as a dynamically detached object found at 76 au (semi-major axis $a\approx 77 \, \mathrm{au}$). We find a disagreement between our population of classical TNOs and the CFEPS-L7 three component model for the Kuiper belt.

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arXiv2023

The DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP): I. Survey description, science questions, and technical demonstration

We present here the DECam Ecliptic Exploration Project (DEEP), a three year NOAO/NOIRLab Survey that was allocated 46.5 nights to discover and measure the properties of thousands of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) to magnitudes as faint as VR~27, corresponding to sizes as small as 20 km diameter. In this paper we present the science goals of this project, the experimental design of our survey, and a technical demonstration of our approach. The core of our project is "digital tracking," in which all collected images are combined at a range of motion vectors to detect unknown TNOs that are fainter than the single exposure depth of VR~23 mag. Through this approach we reach a depth that is approximately 2.5 magnitudes fainter than the standard LSST "wide fast deep" nominal survey depth of 24.5 mag. DEEP will more than double the number of known TNOs with observational arcs of 24 hours or more, and increase by a factor of 10 or more the number of known small (<50 km) TNOs. We also describe our ancillary science goals, including measuring the mean shape distribution of very small main belt asteroids, and briefly outline a set of forthcoming papers that present further aspects of and preliminary results from the DEEP program.

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arXiv2023

Enabling Exoplanet Demographics Studies with Standardized Exoplanet Survey Meta-Data

Goal 1 of the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Mathematics Exoplanet Science Strategy is "to understand the formation and evolution of planetary systems as products of the process of star formation, and characterize and explain the diversity of planetary system architectures, planetary compositions, and planetary environments produced by these processes", with the finding that "Current knowledge of the demographics and characteristics of planets and their systems is substantially incomplete." One significant roadblock to our ongoing efforts to improve our demographics analyses is the lack of comprehensive meta-data accompanying published exoplanet surveys. The Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) Science Interest Group 2: Exoplanet Demographics has prepared this document to provide guidance to survey architects, authors, referees and funding agencies as to the most valuable such data products for five different exoplanet detection techniques - transit, radial velocity, direct imaging, microlensing and astrometry. We find that making these additional data easily available would greatly enhance the community's ability to perform robust, reproducible demographics analyses, and make progress on achieving the most important goals identified by the exoplanet and wider astronomical community.

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arXiv2023

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to start the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in early to mid-2025. This multi-band wide-field synoptic survey will transform our view of the solar system, with the discovery and monitoring of over 5 million small bodies.The final survey strategy chosen for LSST has direct implications on the discoverability and characterization of solar system minor planets and passing interstellar objects. Creating an inventory of the solar system is one of the four main LSST science drivers. The LSST observing cadence is a complex optimization problem that must balance the priorities and needs of all the key LSST science areas. To design the best LSST survey strategy, a series of operation simulations using the Rubin Observatory scheduler have been generated to explore the various options for tuning observing parameters and prioritizations. We explore the impact of the various simulated LSST observing strategies on studying the solar system's small body reservoirs. We examine what are the best observing scenarios and review what are the important considerations for maximizing LSST solar system science. In general, most of the LSST cadence simulations produce +/-5% or less variations in our chosen key metrics, but a subset of the simulations significantly hinder science returns with much larger losses in the discovery and light curve metrics.

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arXiv2022

The formation of Haumea and its family via binary merging

Dozens of families of asteroids in the asteroid belt have similar orbits and compositions because they formed through a collision. However, the icy debris beyond the orbit of Neptune, called the Kuiper Belt, contains only one known family, the Haumea family. So far, no self-consistent explanation for the formation of the Haumea family can match all geophysical and orbital characteristics of the family without invoking extremely improbable events. Here, we show that the family is adequately explained as the product of a merging binary near the end of Neptune's orbital migration. The unique orbital signature of a merging binary, which was not found in extensive searches, is effectively erased during the final stages of migration, providing an explanation for all aspects of the Haumea family. By placing the formation of the Haumea family in the broader context of solar system formation, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept model for the formation of Haumea.

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arXiv2021

Friends and Foes: Conditional Occurrence Rates of Exoplanet Companions and their Impact on Radial Velocity Follow-up Surveys

Population studies of Kepler's multi-planet systems have revealed a surprising degree of structure in their underlying architectures. Information from a detected transiting planet can be combined with a population model to make predictions about the presence and properties of additional planets in the system. Using a statistical model for the distribution of planetary systems (He et al. 2020; arXiv:2007.14473), we compute the conditional occurrence of planets as a function of the period and radius of Kepler-detectable planets. About half ($0.52 \pm 0.03$) of the time, the detected planet is not the planet with the largest semi-amplitude $K$ in the system, so efforts to measure the mass of the transiting planet with radial velocity (RV) follow-up will have to contend with additional planetary signals in the data. We simulate RV observations to show that assuming a single-planet model to measure the $K$ of the transiting planet often requires significantly more observations than in the ideal case with no additional planets, due to the systematic errors from unseen planet companions. Our results show that planets around 10-day periods with $K$ close to the single-measurement RV precision ($σ_{1,\rm obs}$) typically require $\sim 100$ observations to measure their $K$ to within 20% error. For a next generation RV instrument achieving $σ_{1,\rm obs} = 10$ cm/s, about $\sim 200$ ($600$) observations are needed to measure the $K$ of a transiting Venus in a Kepler-like system to better than 20% (10%) error, which is $\sim 2.3$ times as many as what would be necessary for a Venus without any planetary companions.

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arXiv2021

A Five-Planet Resonant Chain: Reevaluation of the Kepler-80 System

Since the launch of the Kepler space telescope in 2009 and the subsequent K2 mission, hundreds of multi-planet systems have been discovered. The study of such systems, both as individual systems and as a population, leads to a better understanding of planetary formation and evolution. Kepler-80, a K-dwarf hosting six super-Earths, was the first system known to have four planets in a chain of resonances, a repeated geometric configuration. Transiting planets in resonant chains can enable us to estimate not only the planets' orbits and sizes but also their masses. Since the original resonance analysis and TTV fitting of Kepler-80, a new planet has been discovered whose signal likely altered the measured masses of the other planets. Here, we determine masses and orbits for all six planets hosted by Kepler-80 by direct forward photodynamical modeling of the lightcurve of this system. We then explore the resonant behaviour of the system. We find that the four middle planets are in a resonant chain, but that the outermost planet only dynamically interacts in $\sim14$\% of our solutions. We also find that the system and its dynamic behaviour are consistent with \emph{in situ} formation and compare our results to two other resonant chain systems, Kepler-60 and TRAPPIST-1.

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arXiv2021

Evidence for a Non-Dichotomous Solution to the Kepler Dichotomy: Mutual Inclinations of Kepler Planetary Systems from Transit Duration Variations

Early analyses of exoplanet statistics from the Kepler Mission revealed that a model population of multiple-planet systems with low mutual inclinations (${\sim1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}}$) adequately describes the multiple-transiting systems but underpredicts the number of single-transiting systems. This so-called "Kepler dichotomy" signals the existence of a sub-population of multi-planet systems possessing larger mutual inclinations. However, the details of these inclinations remain uncertain. In this work, we derive constraints on the intrinsic mutual inclination distribution by statistically exploiting Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population. When planetary orbits are mutually inclined, planet-planet interactions cause orbital precession, which can lead to detectable long-term changes in transit durations. These TDV signals are inclination-sensitive and have been detected for roughly two dozen Kepler planets. We compare the properties of the Kepler observed TDV detections to TDV detections of simulated planetary systems constructed from two population models with differing assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. We find strong evidence for a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations that is well-characterized by a power law relationship between the median mutual inclination ($\tildeμ_{i,n}$) and the intrinsic multiplicity ($n$): $\tildeμ_{i,n} = \tildeμ_{i,5}(n/5)^α$, where $\tildeμ_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $α= -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. These results suggest that late-stage planet assembly and possibly stellar oblateness are the dominant physical origins for the excitation of Kepler planet mutual inclinations.

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arXiv2020

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. III: Eccentricity and Mutual Inclination Distributions of AMD-stable Planetary Systems

The angular momentum deficit (AMD) of a planetary system is a measure of its orbital excitation and a predictor of long-term stability. We adopt the AMD-stability criteria to constrain the orbital architectures for exoplanetary systems. Previously, He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019) (arXiv:1907.07773v2) showed through forward modelling (SysSim) that the observed multiplicity distribution can be well reproduced by two populations consisting of a low and a high mutual inclination component. Here, we show that a broad distribution of mutual inclinations arising from systems at the AMD-stability limit can also match the observed Kepler population. We show that distributing a planetary system's maximum AMD amongst its planets results in a multiplicity-dependent distribution of eccentricities and mutual inclinations. Systems with intrinsically more planets have lower median eccentricities and mutual inclinations, and this trend is well described by power-law functions of the intrinsic planet multiplicity ($n$): $\tildeμ_{e,n} \propto n^{-1.74_{-0.07}^{+0.11}}$ and $\tildeμ_{i,n} \propto n^{-1.73_{-0.08}^{+0.09}}$, where $\tildeμ_{e,n}$ and $\tildeμ_{i,n}$ are the medians of the eccentricity and inclination distributions. We also find that intrinsic single planets have higher eccentricities ($σ_{e,1} \sim 0.25$) than multi-planet systems, and that the trends with multiplicity appear in the observed distributions of period-normalized transit duration ratios. We show that the observed preferences for planet size orderings and uniform spacings are more extreme than what can be produced by the detection biases of the Kepler mission alone. Finally, we find that for systems with detected transiting planets between 5 and 10 days, there is another planet with a greater radial velocity signal $\simeq~53\%$ of the time.

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arXiv2020

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. II: An Increase in Inner Planetary System Occurrence Toward Later Spectral Types for Kepler's FGK Dwarfs

The Kepler mission observed thousands of transiting exoplanet candidates around hundreds of thousands of FGK dwarf stars. He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019) (arXiv:1907.07773) applied forward modeling to infer the distribution of intrinsic architectures of planetary systems, developed a clustered Poisson point process model for exoplanetary systems (SysSim) to reproduce the marginal distributions of the observed Kepler population, and they showed that orbital periods and planet radii are clustered within a given planetary system. Here, we extend the clustered model to explore correlations between planetary systems and their host star properties. We split the sample of Kepler FGK dwarfs into two halves and model the fraction of stars with planets (between 0.5-10 $R_\oplus$ and 3--300 days), $f_{\rm swpa}$, as a linear function of the Gaia DR2 color. We confirm previous findings that the occurrence of these planetary systems rises significantly toward later type (redder) stars. The fraction of stars with planets increases from $f_{\rm swpa} = 0.32_{-0.11}^{+0.12}$ for F2V dwarfs to $f_{\rm swpa} = 0.96_{-0.19}^{+0.04}$ for mid K-dwarfs. About half ($f_{\rm swpa} = 0.57_{-0.10}^{+0.14}$) of all solar-type (G2V) dwarfs harbor a planetary system between 3 and 300 days. This simple model can closely match the observed multiplicity distributions of both the bluer and redder halves in our sample, suggesting that the architectures of planetary systems around stars of different spectral types may be similar aside from a shift in the overall fraction of planet hosting stars.

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arXiv2020

Community Challenges in the Era of Petabyte-Scale Sky Surveys

We outline the challenges faced by the planetary science community in the era of next-generation large-scale astronomical surveys, and highlight needs that must be addressed in order for the community to maximize the quality and quantity of scientific output from archival, existing, and future surveys, while satisfying NASA's and NSF's goals.

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arXiv2020

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

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arXiv2020

Transits of Known Planets Orbiting a Naked-Eye Star

Some of the most scientifically valuable transiting planets are those that were already known from radial velocity (RV) surveys. This is primarily because their orbits are well characterized and they preferentially orbit bright stars that are the targets of RV surveys. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ({\it TESS}) provides an opportunity to survey most of the known exoplanet systems in a systematic fashion to detect possible transits of their planets. HD~136352 (Nu$^2$~Lupi) is a naked-eye ($V = 5.78$) G-type main-sequence star that was discovered to host three planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6, and 108.1 days via RV monitoring with the HARPS spectrograph. We present the detection and characterization of transits for the two inner planets of the HD~136352 system, revealing radii of $1.482^{+0.058}_{-0.056}$~$R_\oplus$ and $2.608^{+0.078}_{-0.077}$~$R_\oplus$ for planets b and c, respectively. We combine new HARPS observations with RV data from Keck/HIRES and the AAT, along with {\it TESS} photometry from Sector 12, to perform a complete analysis of the system parameters. The combined data analysis results in extracted bulk density values of $ρ_b = 7.8^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$~gcm$^{-3}$ and $ρ_c = 3.50^{+0.41}_{-0.36}$~gcm$^{-3}$ for planets b and c, respectively, thus placing them on either side of the radius valley. The combination of the multi-transiting planet system, the bright host star, and the diversity of planetary interiors and atmospheres means this will likely become a cornerstone system for atmospheric and orbital characterization of small worlds.

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arXiv2020

Occurrence Rates of Planets orbiting FGK Stars: Combining Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2 and Bayesian Inference

We characterize the occurrence rate of planets, ranging in size from 0.5-16 R$_\oplus$, orbiting FGK stars with orbital periods from 0.5-500 days. Our analysis is based on results from the "DR25" catalog of planet candidates produced by NASA's Kepler mission and stellar radii from Gaia "DR2". We incorporate additional Kepler data products to accurately characterize the efficiency of planets being recognized as a "threshold crossing events" (TCE) by Kepler's Transiting Planet Search pipeline and labeled as a planet candidate by the robovetter. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we derive planet occurrence rates for a wide range of planet sizes and orbital periods. For planets with sizes $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ and orbital periods of 237-500 days, we find a rate of planets per FGK star of $<0.27$ ($84.13$th percentile). While the true rate of such planets could be lower by a factor of $\sim~2$ (primarily due to potential contamination of planet candidates by false alarms), the upper limits on the occurrence rate of such planets are robust to $\sim~10\%$. We recommend that mission concepts aiming to characterize potentially rocky planets in or near the habitable zone of sun-like stars prepare compelling science programs that would be robust for a true rate in the range $f_{R,P} = $ $0.03-0.40$ for $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ planets with orbital periods in 237-500 days, or a differential rate of $Γ_\oplus \equiv (d^2 f)/[d(\ln P)~d(\ln R_{p})] = $ $0.06-0.76$.

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arXiv2019

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. I: A Clustered Forward Model for Exoplanetary Systems around Kepler's FGK Stars

Observations of exoplanetary systems provide clues about the intrinsic distribution of planetary systems, their architectures, and how they formed. We develop a forward modelling framework for generating populations of planetary systems and "observed" catalogues by simulating the Kepler detection pipeline (SysSim). We compare our simulated catalogues to the Kepler DR25 catalogue of planet candidates, updated to include revised stellar radii from Gaia DR2. We constrain our model based on the observed 1D marginal distributions of orbital periods, period ratios, transit depths, transit depth ratios, transit durations, transit duration ratios, and transit multiplicities. Models assuming planets with independent periods and sizes do not adequately account for the properties of the multiplanet systems. Instead, a clustered point process model for exoplanet periods and sizes provides a significantly better description of the Kepler population, particularly the observed multiplicity and period ratio distributions. We find that $0.56^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ of FGK stars have at least one planet larger than $0.5 R_\oplus$ between 3 and 300 d. Most of these planetary systems ($\sim 98\%$) consist of one or two clusters with a median of three planets per cluster. We find that the Kepler dichotomy is evidence for a population of highly inclined planetary systems and is unlikely to be solely due to a population of intrinsically single planet systems. We provide a large ensemble of simulated physical and observed catalogues of planetary systems from our models, as well as publicly available code for generating similar catalogues given user-defined parameters.

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arXiv2019

A Dearth of Small Members in the Haumea Family Revealed by the OSSOS Survey

While collisional families are common in the asteroid belt, only one is known in the Kuiper belt, linked to the dwarf planet Haumea. The characterization of Haumea's family helps to constrain its origin and, more generally, the collisional history of the Kuiper belt. However, the size distribution of the Haumea family is difficult to constrain from the known sample, which is affected by discovery biases. Here, we use the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) Ensemble to look for Haumea family members. In this OSSOS XVI study we report the detection of three candidates with small ejection velocities relative to the family formation centre. The largest discovery, 2013 UQ15, is conclusively a Haumea family member, with a low ejection velocity and neutral surface colours. Although the OSSOS Ensemble is sensitive to Haumea family members to a limiting absolute magnitude (Hr) of 9.5 (inferred diameter of ~90 km), the smallest candidate is significantly larger, Hr = 7.9. The Haumea family members larger than approximately 20 km in diameter must be characterized by a shallow H-distribution slope in order to produce only these three large detections. This shallow size distribution suggests that the family formed in a graze-and-merge scenario, not a catastrophic collision.

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arXiv2019

Maximizing LSST Solar System Science: Approaches, Software Tools, and Infrastructure Needs

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is expected to increase known small solar system object populations by an order of magnitude or more over the next decade, enabling a broad array of transformative solar system science investigations to be performed. In this white paper, we discuss software tools and infrastructure that we anticipate will be needed to conduct these investigations and outline possible approaches for implementing them. Feedback from the community or contributions to future updates of this work are welcome. Our aim is for this white paper to encourage further consideration of the software development needs of the LSST solar system science community, and also to be a call to action for working to meet those needs in advance of the expected start of the survey in late 2022.

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arXiv2019

Kepler-9: the First Multi-Transiting System and the First Transit Timing Variations

Kepler-9, discovered by Holman et al. 2010, was the first system with multiple confirmed transiting planets and the first system to clearly show long-anticipated transit timing variations (TTVs). We review the historical circumstances behind the discovery and characterization of these planets and the publication of Holman et al. 2010. It was the first major novel exoplanet discovery of the Kepler Space Telescope mission. The Kepler pipeline identified two Saturn-radius candidates (called Kepler Objects of Interest or KOIs): KOI-377.01 with a 19-day period and KOI-377.02 with a 39-day period. Even with only 9 transits for KOI-377.01 and 6 of KOI-377.02, the transit times were completely inconsistent with a linear ephemeris and showed strongly anti-correlated variations in transit times. Holman et al. 2010 were able to readily show that these objects were planetary mass, confirming them as bona fide planets Kepler-9b and Kepler-9c. As a multi-transiting system exhibiting strong TTVs, the relative planetary properties (e.g., mass ratio, radius ratio) were strongly constrained, opening a new chapter in comparative planetology. KOI-377.03, a small planet with a 1.5-day period, was not initially discovered by the Kepler pipeline, but was identified during the analysis of the other planets and was later confirmed as Kepler-9d through the BLENDER technique by Torres et al. 2011. Holman et al. 2010 included significant dynamical analysis to characterize Kepler-9's particular TTVs: planets near resonance show large amplitude anti-correlated TTVs with a period corresponding to the rotation of the line of conjunctions and an additional "chopping" signal due to the changing positions of the planets. We also review the updated properties of this system and propose ideas for future investigations.

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