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Darin Ragozzine

Publications and source records attributed to Darin Ragozzine.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Modeling the Formation of the Family of the Dwarf Planet Haumea

The dwarf planet (136108) Haumea has an intriguing combination of unique physical properties: near-breakup spin, two regular satellites, and an unexpectedly compact family. While these properties indicate formation by collision, there is no self-consistent and reasonably probable formation hypothesis that can connect the unusually rapid spin and the low relative velocities of Haumea family members ("Haumeans"). We explore and test the proposed formation hypotheses (catastrophic collision, graze-and-merge, and satellite collision). We flexibly parameterize the properties of the collision (e.g., the collision location) and use simple models for the three-dimensional velocity ejection field expected from each model to generate simulated families. These are compared to observed Kuiper Belt Objects using Bayesian parameter inference, including a mixture model that allows for interlopers from the background population. After testing our methodology, we find the best match to the observed Haumeans is an isotropic ejection field with a typical velocity of 150 m s$^{-1}$. The graze-and-merge and satellite collision hypotheses are disfavored. Including these constraints, we discuss the formation hypotheses in detail, including variations, some of which are tested. Some new hypotheses are proposed (a cratering collision and a collision where Haumea's upper layers are "missing") and scrutinized. We do not identify a satisfactory formation hypothesis, but we do propose several avenues of additional investigation. In addition, we identify many new candidate Haumeans and dynamically confirm 7 of them as consistent with the observed family. We confirm that Haumeans have a shallow size distribution and discuss implications for the identification of new Haumeans.

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Visual Analysis and Demographics of Kepler Transit Timing Variations

We visually analyzed the Transit Timing Variation (TTV) data of 5930 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) homogeneously. Using data from Rowe et al. 2014 and Holczer et al. 2016, we investigated TTVs for KOIs in Kepler's Data Release 24 catalog. Using TTV plots, periodograms, and folded quadratic sinusoid fits, we visually rated each KOI's TTV data in five categories. Our ratings emphasize the hundreds of planets with TTVs that are weaker than the 200 or so that have been studied in detail. Our findings are consistent with statistical methods for identifying strong TTVs (Holczer et al. 2016), though we find some additional systems worth investigation. Between about 3-50 days and 1.3-6 Earth radii, the frequency of strong TTVs increases with period and radius. As expected, strong TTVs are very common when period ratios are near a resonance, but there is not a one-to-one correspondence. The observed planet-by-planet frequency of strong TTVs is only somewhat lower in systems with 1-2 known planets (7 +/- 1 percent) than in systems with 3+ known planets (11 +/- 2 percent). We attribute TTVs to known planets in multi-transiting systems, but find about 30 cases where the perturbing planet is unknown. Our conclusions are valuable as an ensemble for learning about planetary system architectures and individually as stepping stones towards more detailed mass-radius constraints. We also discuss Data Release 25 TTVs, about 100 KOIs with Transit Duration and/or Depth Variations, and that the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will likely find roughly 10 planets with strong TTVs.

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Predicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that $25.5^{+0.7}_{-0.7}$ of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that $11.7^{+0.3}_{-0.3}$ of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for $\sim$3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of $\sim$125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.

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Enabling Deep All-Sky Searches of Outer Solar System Objects

A foundational goal of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is to map the Solar System small body populations that provide key windows into understanding of its formation and evolution. This is especially true of the populations of the Outer Solar System -- objects at the orbit of Neptune $r > 30$AU and beyond. In this whitepaper, we propose a minimal change to the LSST cadence that can greatly enhance LSST's ability to discover faint distant Solar System objects across the entire wide-fast-deep (WFD) survey area. Specifically, we propose that the WFD cadence be constrained so as to deliver least one sequence of $\gtrsim 10$ visits per year taken in a $\sim 10$ day period in any combination of $g, r$, and $i$ bands. Combined with advanced shift-and-stack algorithms (Whidden et al. 2019) this modification would enable a nearly complete census of the outer Solar System to $\sim 25.5$ magnitude, yielding $4-8$x more KBO discoveries than with single-epoch baseline, and enabling rapid identification and follow-up of unusual distant Solar System objects in $\gtrsim 5$x greater volume of space. These increases would enhance the science cases discussed in Schwamb et al. (2018) whitepaper, including probing Neptune's past migration history as well as discovering hypothesized planet(s) beyond the orbit of Neptune (or at least placing significant constraints on their existence).

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A Northern Ecliptic Survey for Solar System Science

Making an inventory of the Solar System is one of the four fundamental science requirements for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). The current baseline footprint for LSST's main Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) Survey observes the sky below 0$^\circ$ declination, which includes only half of the ecliptic plane. Critically, key Solar System populations are asymmetrically distributed on the sky: they will be entirely missed, or only partially mapped, if only the WFD occurs. We propose a Northern Ecliptic Spur (NES) mini survey, observing the northern sky up to +10$^\circ$ ecliptic latitude, to maximize Solar System science with LSST. The mini survey comprises a total area of $\sim$5800 deg$^2$/604 fields, with 255 observations/field over the decade, split between g,r, and z bands. Our proposed survey will 1) obtain a census of main-belt comets; 2) probe Neptune's past migration history, by exploring the resonant structure of the Kuiper belt and the Neptune Trojan population; 3) explore the origin of Inner Oort cloud objects and place significant constraints on the existence of a hypothesized planet beyond Neptune; and 4) enable precise predictions of KBO stellar occultations. These high-ranked science goals of the Solar System Science Collaboration are only achievable with this proposed northern survey.

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The Effects of Filter Choice on Outer Solar System Science with LSST

Making an inventory of the Solar System is one of the four pillars that the requirements for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) are built upon. The choice between same-filter nightly pairs or different-filter nightly pairs in the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) Survey will have a dramatic effect on the ability of the Moving Object Pipeline System (MOPS) to detect certain classes of Solar System objects; many of the possible filter pairings would result in significant ($\sim50\%$ or more) loss of Solar System object detections. In particular, outer Solar System populations can be significantly redder than those in the inner Solar System, and nightly pairs in $r$-band will result in the deepest survey for the outer Solar System. To maximize the potential for outer Solar System science, we thus advocate for ensuring that the WFD survey contains a sufficient number of $r$-$r$ nightly pairs for each field during a discovery season to ensure detection and linking using MOPS. We also advocate for adding additional spectral energy distributions (SEDs) that more accurately model outer Solar System populations to the pipeline for evaluating the outputs of the LSST operations simulator. This will enable a better estimate of how many Solar System population detections are lost or gained for different filter choices in the WFD survey.

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Improving the Accuracy of Planet Occurrence Rates from Kepler using Approximate Bayesian Computation

We present a new framework to characterize the occurrence rates of planet candidates identified by Kepler based on hierarchical Bayesian modeling, Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), and sequential importance sampling. For this study we adopt a simple 2-D grid in planet radius and orbital period as our model and apply our algorithm to estimate occurrence rates for Q1-Q16 planet candidates orbiting around solar-type stars. We arrive at significantly increased planet occurrence rates for small planet candidates ($R_p<1.25 R_{\oplus}$) at larger orbital periods ($P>80$d) compared to the rates estimated by the more common inverse detection efficiency method. Our improved methodology estimates that the occurrence rate density of small planet candidates in the habitable zone of solar-type stars is $1.6^{+1.2}_{-0.5}$ per factor of 2 in planet radius and orbital period. Additionally, we observe a local minimum in the occurrence rate for strong planet candidates marginalized over orbital period between 1.5 and 2$R_{\oplus}$ that is consistent with previous studies. For future improvements, the forward modeling approach of ABC is ideally suited to incorporating multiple populations, such as planets, astrophysical false positives and pipeline false alarms, to provide accurate planet occurrence rates and uncertainties. Furthermore, ABC provides a practical statistical framework for answering complex questions (e.g., frequency of different planetary architectures) and providing sound uncertainties, even in the face of complex selection effects, observational biases, and follow-up strategies. In summary, ABC offers a powerful tool for accurately characterizing a wide variety of astrophysical populations.

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The crucial role of ground-based, Doppler measurements for the future of exoplanet science

We outline the important role that ground-based, Doppler monitoring of exoplanetary systems will play in advancing our theories of planet formation and dynamical evolution. A census of planetary systems requires a well designed survey to be executed over the course of a decade or longer. A coordinated survey to monitor several thousand targets each at ~1000 epochs (~3-5 million new observations) will require roughly 40 dedicated spectrographs. We advocate for improvements in data management, data sharing, analysis techniques, and software testing, as well as possible changes to the funding structures for exoplanet science.

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Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Solar System Science Roadmap

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is uniquely equipped to search for Solar System bodies due to its unprecedented combination of depth and wide field coverage. Over a ten-year period starting in 2022, LSST will generate the largest catalog of Solar System objects to date. The main goal of the LSST Solar System Science Collaboration (SSSC) is to facilitate the efforts of the planetary community to study the planets and small body populations residing within our Solar System using LSST data. To prepare for future survey cadence decisions and ensure that interesting and novel Solar System science is achievable with LSST, the SSSC has identified and prioritized key Solar System research areas for investigation with LSST in this roadmap. The ranked science priorities highlighted in this living document will inform LSST survey cadence decisions and aid in identifying software tools and pipelines needed to be developed by the planetary community as added value products and resources before the planned start of LSST science operations.

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A dwarf planet class object in the 21:5 resonance with Neptune

We report the discovery of a $H_r = 3.4\pm0.1$ dwarf planet candidate by the Pan-STARRS Outer Solar System Survey. 2010 JO$_{179}$ is red with $(g-r)=0.88 \pm 0.21$, roughly round, and slowly rotating, with a period of $30.6$ hr. Estimates of its albedo imply a diameter of 600--900~km. Observations sampling the span between 2005--2016 provide an exceptionally well-determined orbit for 2010 JO$_{179}$, with a semi-major axis of $78.307\pm0.009$ au, distant orbits known to this precision are rare. We find that 2010 JO$_{179}$ librates securely within the 21:5 mean-motion resonance with Neptune on hundred-megayear time scales, joining the small but growing set of known distant dwarf planets on metastable resonant orbits. These imply a substantial trans-Neptunian population that shifts between stability in high-order resonances, the detached population, and the eroding population of the scattering disk.

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The Short Rotation Period of Hi'iaka, Haumea's Largest Satellite

Hi'iaka is the larger outer satellite of the dwarf planet Haumea. Using relative photometry from the Hubble Space Telescope and Magellan and a phase dispersion minimization analysis, we have identified the rotation period of Hi'iaka to be ~9.8 hrs (double-peaked). This is ~120 times faster than its orbital period, creating new questions about the formation of this system and possible tidal evolution. The rapid rotation suggests that Hi'iaka could have a significant obliquity and spin precession that could be visible in light curves within a few years. We then turn to an investigation of what we learn about the (presently unclear) formation of the Haumea system and family based on this unexpectedly rapid rotation rate. We explore the importance of the initial semi-major axis and rotation period in tidal evolution theory and find they strongly influence the time required to despin to synchronous rotation, relevant to understanding a wide variety of satellite and binary systems. We find that despinning tides do not necessarily lead to synchronous spin periods for Hi'iaka, even if it formed near the Roche limit. Therefore the short rotation period of Hi'iaka does not rule out significant tidal evolution. Hi'iaka's spin period is also consistent with formation near its current location and spin up due to Haumea-centric impactors.

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Tidal spin down rates of homogeneous triaxial viscoelastic bodies

We use numerical simulations to measure the sensitivity of the tidal spin down rate of a homogeneous triaxial ellipsoid to its axis ratios by comparing the drift rate in orbital semi-major axis to that of a spherical body with the same mass, volume and simulated rheology. We use a mass-spring model approximating a viscoelastic body spinning around its shortest body axis, with spin aligned with orbital spin axis, and in circular orbit about a point mass. The torque or drift rate can be estimated from that predicted for a sphere with equivalent volume if multiplied by $0.5 (1 + b^4/a^4)(b/a)^{-4/3} (c/a)^{-α_c}$ where $b/a$ and $c/a$ are the body axis ratios and index $α_c \approx 1.05$ is consistent with the random lattice mass spring model simulations but $α_c = 4/3$ suggested by scaling estimates. A homogeneous body with axis ratios 0.5 and and 0.8, like Haumea, has orbital semi-major axis drift rate about twice as fast as a spherical body with the same mass, volume and material properties. A simulation approximating a mostly rocky body but with 20\% of its mass as ice concentrated at its ends has a drift rate 10 times faster than the equivalent homogeneous rocky sphere. However, this increase in drift rate is not enough to allow Haumea's satellite, Hi'iaka, to have tidally drifted away from Haumea to its current orbital semi-major axis.

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Realistic Detectability of Close Interstellar Comets

During the planet formation process, billions of comets are created and ejected into interstellar space. The detection and characterization of such interstellar comets (also known as extra-solar planetesimals or extra-solar comets) would give us in situ information about the efficiency and properties of planet formation throughout the galaxy. However, no interstellar comets have ever been detected, despite the fact that their hyperbolic orbits would make them readily identifiable as unrelated to the solar system. Moro-Martín et al. 2009 have made a detailed and reasonable estimate of the properties of the interstellar comet population. We extend their estimates of detectability with a numerical model that allows us to consider "close" interstellar comets, e.g., those that come within the orbit of Jupiter. We include several constraints on a "detectable" object that allow for realistic estimates of the frequency of detections expected from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and other surveys. The influence of several of the assumed model parameters on the frequency of detections is explored in detail. Based on the expectation from Moro-Martín et al. 2009, we expect that LSST will detect 0.001-10 interstellar comets during its nominal 10-year lifetime, with most of the uncertainty from the unknown number density of small (nuclei of $\sim$0.1-1 km) interstellar comets. Using simulated LSST-like astrometric data, we study the problem of orbit determination for these bodies, finding that LSST could identify their orbits as hyperbolic and determine an ephemeris sufficiently accurate for follow-up in about 4-7 days. We give the hyperbolic orbital parameters of the most detectable interstellar comets. Taking the results into consideration, we give recommendations to future searches for interstellar comets.

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A Dynamical Analysis of the Kepler-80 System of Five Transiting Planets

Kepler has discovered hundreds of systems with multiple transiting exoplanets which hold tremendous potential both individually and collectively for understanding the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Many of these systems consist of multiple small planets with periods less than ~50 days known as Systems with Tightly-spaced Inner Planets, or STIPs. One especially intriguing STIP, Kepler-80 (KOI-500), contains five transiting planets: f, d, e, b, and c with periods of 1.0, 3.1, 4.6, 7.1, 9.5 days, respectively. We provide measurements of transit times and a transit timing variation (TTV) dynamical analysis. We find that TTVs cannot reliably detect eccentricities for this system, though mass estimates are not affected. Restricting the eccentricity to a reasonable range, we infer masses for the outer four planets (d, e, b, and c) to be $6.75^{+0.69}_{-0.51}$, $4.13^{+0.81}_{-0.95}$, $6.93^{+1.05}_{-0.70}$, and $6.74^{+1.23}_{-0.86}$ Earth masses, respectively. The similar masses but different radii are consistent with terrestrial compositions for d and e and $\sim$2% H/He envelopes for b and c. We confirm that the outer four planets are in a rare dynamical configuration with four interconnected three-body resonances that are librating with few degree amplitudes. We present a formation model that can reproduce the observed configuration by starting with a multi-resonant chain and introducing dissipation. Overall, the information-rich Kepler-80 planets provide an important perspective into exoplanetary systems.

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Transit Timing Observations from Kepler. IX. Catalog of the Full Long-Cadence Data Set

We present a new transit timing catalog of 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (=KOIs), using the PDC-MAP long-cadence light curves that include the full seventeen quarters of the mission (ftp://wise- ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver_112). The goal is to produce an easy-to-use catalog that can stimulate further analyses of interesting systems. For 779 KOIs with high enough SNRs, we derived the timing, duration and depth of 69,914 transits. For 1820 KOIs with lower SNR, we derived only the timing of 225,273 transits. After removal of outlier timings, we derived various statistics for each KOI that were used to indicate significant variations. Including systems found by previous works, we have detected 260 KOIs which showed significant TTVs with long-term variations (>100 day), and another fourteen KOIs with periodic modulations shorter than 100 day and small amplitudes. For five of those, the periodicity is probably due to the crossing of rotating stellar spots by the transiting planets.

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Kepler-1647b: the largest and longest-period Kepler transiting circumbinary planet

We report the discovery of a new Kepler transiting circumbinary planet (CBP). This latest addition to the still-small family of CBPs defies the current trend of known short-period planets orbiting near the stability limit of binary stars. Unlike the previous discoveries, the planet revolving around the eclipsing binary system Kepler-1647 has a very long orbital period (~1100 days) and was at conjunction only twice during the Kepler mission lifetime. Due to the singular configuration of the system, Kepler-1647b is not only the longest-period transiting CBP at the time of writing, but also one of the longest-period transiting planets. With a radius of 1.06+/-0.01 RJup it is also the largest CBP to date. The planet produced three transits in the light-curve of Kepler-1647 (one of them during an eclipse, creating a syzygy) and measurably perturbed the times of the stellar eclipses, allowing us to measure its mass to be 1.52+/-0.65 MJup. The planet revolves around an 11-day period eclipsing binary consisting of two Solar-mass stars on a slightly inclined, mildly eccentric (e_bin = 0.16), spin-synchronized orbit. Despite having an orbital period three times longer than Earth's, Kepler-1647b is in the conservative habitable zone of the binary star throughout its orbit.

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A Deep Search for Additional Satellites around the Dwarf Planet Haumea

Haumea is a dwarf planet with two known satellites, an unusually high spin rate, and a large collisional family, making it one of the most interesting objects in the outer solar system. A fully self-consistent formation scenario responsible for the satellite and family formation is still elusive, but some processes predict the initial formation of many small moons, similar to the small moons recently discovered around Pluto. Deep searches for regular satellites around KBOs are difficult due to observational limitations, but Haumea is one of the few for which sufficient data exist. We analyze Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations, focusing on a ten-consecutive-orbit sequence obtained in July 2010, to search for new very small satellites. To maximize the search depth, we implement and validate a non-linear shift-and-stack method. No additional satellites of Haumea are found, but by implanting and recovering artificial sources, we characterize our sensitivity. At distances between $\sim$10,000 km and $\sim$350,000 km from Haumea, satellites with radii as small as $\sim$10 km are ruled out, assuming an albedo ($p \simeq 0.7$) similar to Haumea. We also rule out satellites larger than $\gtrsim$40 km in most of the Hill sphere using other HST data. This search method rules out objects similar in size to the small moons of Pluto. By developing clear criteria for determining the number of non-linear rates to use, we find that far fewer shift rates are required ($\sim$35) than might be expected. The non-linear shift-and-stack method to discover satellites (and other moving transients) is tractable, particularly in the regime where non-linear motion begins to manifest itself.

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