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Daryl Haggard

Publications and source records attributed to Daryl Haggard.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

An RFSoC-based Backend and Timing System for the Balloon-borne Very Long Baseline Interferometry Experiment

We present the design and performance characterization of the digital backend and precision-timing system for the Balloon-borne Very Long Baseline Interferometry Experiment (BVEX), a pathfinder for high-frequency stratospheric VLBI at 22 GHz. The backend uses one of the four 14-bit analog-to-digital converter inputs on an AMD-Xilinx RFSoC 4x2. Although the converters support sampling rates up to 5 GSPS, the flight configuration digitizes the 2-4 GHz intermediate frequency at 4.096 GSPS. CASPER firmware provides both a high-resolution spectrometer for pointing and receiver verification, and a VLBI acquisition chain with two-bit requantization that records at a rate of about 8.2 Gbps. The timestamped data packets are sent over 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) to a 16 TB NVMe array in a storage computer that draws approximately 70-80 W. The timing chain uses a Rakon oven-controlled crystal oscillator as a timing reference while a time-interval counter measures its drift relative to a GPS reference with approximately 60 ps resolution. This is the first deployment of an RFSoC-based VLBI backend and precision-timing system on a stratospheric balloon. Ground tests validated the backend, spectrometer, and timing chain. The August 2025 CSA STRATOS flight ended before reaching the target float altitude because of a balloon failure, and as a result no science observations were obtained. For the planned 2027 reflight, we are developing a conduction-cooled data storage computer with 24 TB of NVMe capacity and a direct data path from the 100 GbE interface to the NVMe array.

astro-ph.IM

The Balloon-borne VLBI Experiment (BVEX) Radio Telescope and Position Tracking System

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is a technique in radio astronomy that vastly increases the diffraction limited angular resolution of radio observations by correlating simultaneous observations of radio telescopes separated by thousands of kilometers. Ground-based high-frequency VLBI is limited in baseline length by the diameter of the Earth and in sensitivity by molecular absorption of the Earth's atmosphere. One of the ways to improve VLBI is with balloon telescopes, which are much cheaper than space VLBI telescopes. In addition balloon-VLBI stations could also improve image quality due to increased uv-coverage. As a first step to achieving VLBI from a balloon-borne platform we present the Balloon-borne VLBI Experiment (BVEX). This is a novel, first-generation balloon-borne VLBI station observing at K-band (22 GHz) which launched as part of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) STRATOS campaign from Timmins, Ontario, Canada in August 2025, with the aim to demonstrate VLBI from a balloon-borne platform by correlating with a large ground based telescope. We discuss the design of the 36 inch (91 cm) radio telescope and receiver with a 2 GHz bandwidth built from commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components as well as the telescope pointing system capable of interfacing with the CSA's CARMENCITA gondola. We also present a novel high precision position tracking system built from COTS components giving <1 mm precision on 1 s time scales which is required for achieving phase tracking at 22 GHz. We further show on-the-ground testing results from the 2025 Timmins campaign. The 2025 flight from Timmins was not successful due to a leak in the balloon preventing the payload from reaching its target altitude where accurate gondola pointing is possible. We therefore wrap up by presenting plans to upgrade the telescope for a potential next flight opportunity from Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil in 2027.

astro-ph.IM

Advancing Fundamental Physics and Cosmology with high-resolution X-ray imaging

Black Holes are the key to solving many unanswered questions in fundamental physics: in particular, the very extreme properties shown by supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies make them obvious candidates for testing gravity theories in the strong-field regime. Since X-rays are generated by matter under extreme physical conditions, ultra-high resolution X-ray imaging (uXRI) will directly image the region near the event horizon of black holes in X-rays, similar to the Event Horizon Telescope in the radio band, enabling unprecedented tests of General Relativity and alternative theories of gravity near supermassive black holes. On the other hand, clusters of galaxies hold the potential of unveiling many unknowns in cosmology. uXRI will unlock this potential by probing small-scale plasma properties in the intracluster medium, providing the missing link required to establish galaxy clusters as reliable tools for high-precision cosmology. Moreover, uXRI will enable mapping of Dark Matter from galaxy cluster dynamics via proper motion measurements. Finally, uXRI will open a new field of precision X-ray astrometry, allowing for measuring pulsar parallaxes to support nanoHertz gravitational wave searches.

astro-ph.HE

JWST Detects a Dusty AGB-like Source Before the Type Ia-CSM Supernova 2026sqf

Supernova (SN) 2026sqf recently appeared in the nearby face-on spiral galaxy NGC 3310 and has shown signs of strong interaction with a circumstellar medium (CSM). Such intense interaction, rare among nearby SNe, offers a valuable opportunity to reveal details on the origin and nature of its progenitor system. We analyzed the early-phase spectra and light curves (LCs) of SN 2026sqf. The general shapes of the observed spectra, the strengths of the emission lines, and the LC evolution all suggest that SN 2026sqf belongs to the rare SN Ia-CSM subclass. If confirmed, this would be the closest known member of this class, at D~19 Mpc. We also report the first candidate progenitor system for a thermonuclear supernova identified in JWST pre-explosion imaging, and the first evidence for a (probable) carbon-rich AGB donor to the exploding white dwarf (WD). Our results are consistent with the expectation that SNe Ia-CSM emerge from a system consisting of a WD and an AGB star undergoing a common-envelope phase. The CSM mass and dust content are consistent with expectations for an AGB environment, but the narrow-line width exceeds superwind expansion velocities, favoring an episodic ejection. Binary interaction shortly before the explosion is a natural explanation, though the channel and timescale remain uncertain. Late-time follow-up, especially with JWST, will test the identification and the conclusions of our early-phase analysis.

astro-ph.SR

Dynamics and geometry of the inner sub-parsec-scale jet in 3C 279 observed with the Event Horizon Telescope

The 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations resolve the innermost jet region of the blazar 3C279 with unprecedented detail. The reconstructed images consistently reveal a compact core elongated nearly orthogonal to the large-scale jet axis. This rarely observed morphology recurs across multiple epochs and from 22-230 GHz and is therefore intrinsic rather than an imaging artifact. Geometric model fitting identifies several components with apparent speeds up to 10c, requiring bulk Lorentz factors greater than 10.3 and constraining viewing angles to extremely small values (smaller than one degree). Rest-frame brightness temperatures are systematically low (between 10^9 and 10^10 K), consistent with optically thin emission at 230 GHz. These results suggest that the jet bends toward the observer on sub-parsec scales, producing strong relativistic beaming. Possible drivers of the observed jet bending and temporal evolution include the jet's interaction with the interstellar medium, kink or Kelvin--Helmholtz instabilities, magnetic reconnection near the horizon, or binary-induced precession. However, the current temporal coverage of VLBI data remains insufficient to distinguish between these mechanisms. Continued multifrequency VLBI monitoring will be essential to constraining the dynamics and geometry of the jet base in 3C279.

astro-ph.GA

The Demographics of Sagittarius A* X-ray Flares over 25 Years with Chandra

We present the Chandra 25-year Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) X-ray flare catalog: a systematic analysis of 6.8 Ms of Sgr A* monitoring spanning the Chandra X-ray Observatory's mission lifetime. This is the most complete Chandra Sgr A* X-ray flare catalog to date, consisting of 100 flares with 2$-$10 keV unabsorbed luminosities ranging from $\sim$ 4$-$575 $\times 10^{33}$ erg s$^{-1}$. 18 flares are reported for the first time, including the second brightest Sgr A* flare observed by Chandra. The expanded dataset supports previous indications of a correlation between X-ray flare hardness and luminosity. Spectral modeling corroborates this finding, showing a change in the X-ray spectral index, from $\Gamma \sim 3$ to 2 with increasing flare brightness. Previously-established correlations between flare duration, fluence, and maximum count rate are strengthened via the greater sample size. These results likely reflect variations in the underlying particle distribution that produce weak and strong flares, and the new catalog serves as a rich archive for ongoing observational and numerical investigations into the physical mechanisms responsible for producing Sgr A*'s X-ray flares.

astro-ph.HE

Infrared Line Diagnostics Fail to Constrain Sgr A*'s UV Output

Sgr A*, the 4 x $10^6 M_{sun}$ supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center, exhibits frequent flaring with X-ray luminosities of $L_X \sim 10^{35}-10^{36}$ erg s$^{-1}$, while its ultraviolet (UV) emission remains unconstrained due to extreme extinction ($A_V \sim 30$ mag). We use JWST/MIRI time-resolved spectroscopy of the central 0.3" region to search for mid-infrared emission line variability driven by Sgr A* flares, comparing the results to CLOUDY photoionization models spanning flare luminosities of $L_{UV} = 10^{32}$-$10^{39}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We detect no continuum-correlated variability in any mid-infrared line, including [Fe II] (5.34 $\mu$m), [Ne II] (12.813 $\mu$m), [Fe II] (17.936 $\mu$m), and [S III] (18.713 $\mu$m) over lags of $\sim1$-8~hr. Despite expectations of a flare-driven response, we show that the lack of variability is consistent with the physical conditions in the spatially extended line-emitting gas, where light-crossing timescales of $\sim0.1$-$10$ days and recombination and cooling timescales much longer than the variability timescales suppress any observable response to individual flares. We further find that the modeled infrared spectra are dominated by continuum emission rather than isolated line emission. The brightest predicted lines are intrinsically weak (lower than 10$^{-5}$ mJy), and their detectability is further reduced by the large kinematic broadening expected at the CLOUDY-predicted emitting radii, reducing their contrast against the continuum. Extending the analysis to higher-ionization mid-infrared and near-infrared lines does not improve sensitivity. These results demonstrate that infrared emission lines trace a steady-state radiation field rather than individual flaring events, and therefore infrared line diagnostics cannot be used to constrain the instantaneous UV flux of Sgr A*.

astro-ph.HE

Ionization Structure and Metal Enrichment of the Galactic Center Minispiral Observed with JWST

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) is the nearest quiescent supermassive black hole, and its proximity offers a unique opportunity to study its surrounding fuel supply. We leverage extensive spatial and spectroscopic information provided by the JWST/MIRI MRS instrument to disentangle mid-infrared ionized gas structures in the central 0.1 parsec of the Galaxy. The Galactic Minispiral's Bar and Northern Arm are revealed by their distinct morphological and kinematic signatures. Several compact (<1 arcsec) gas structures including X7 also appear within ~0.05 parsec of Sgr A* in the plane of the sky, moving with blue-shifted radial velocities >~600 km/s. Fine-structure-line measurements spanning ionization potentials ~7-55 eV are used to constrain the incident radiation field, metal abundances (neon, argon, sulfur, nickel, and iron), and dust depletion/destruction for each identified gas structure. Overall, the Minispiral gas shows mildly super-solar abundances (~1.8*solar), a Wolf--Rayet star-driven radiation field consistent with ionization parameters spanning -1.6<~log U<~-0.6, and significant nickel and iron dust destruction. In particular, the enhanced ionization state and strong dust processing in the high-velocity compact gas structures suggest that these features may experience localized fast shocks.

astro-ph.GA

Training a neural network to rapidly identify candidate gravitational-wave events in the lower mass gap

The physics governing the boundary between the most massive neutron stars (NSs) and the least massive black holes (BHs) is currently uncertain, but could potentially be constrained with new observations. While NSs have been observed with masses up to $\sim2~M_{\odot}$, there is a dearth of electromagnetic observations of compact objects in the $\sim2-5~M_{\odot}$ range, known as the lower mass gap. Recent observations of gravitational-wave (GW) signals from binary mergers detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration indicate that this gap is likely not empty. Rapidly distinguishing whether a candidate GW event has components in this purported mass gap can indicate the likelihood of a detectable electromagnetic counterpart, and thus inform decisions for follow-up observations. In this work we train a neural network model, GWSkyNet-MassGap, that simultaneously predicts the probability that a candidate merger has a component in the lower mass gap ($P_{\mathrm{MassGap}}$) and the probability that it involves a NS ($P_{\mathrm{NS}}$). We find that the model is able to infer information about the source chirp mass to predict $P_{\mathrm{MassGap}}$ and $P_{\mathrm{NS}}$, leading to correct predictions for high-mass mergers with $\mathcal{M}_c\gtrsim15~M_{\odot}$, but less accurate predictions for lower-mass systems which require knowledge of the binary mass ratio to break the mass degeneracy. For candidate events in the first part of LVK's fourth observing run (O4a), the model has a mean prediction error of 9% for $P_{\mathrm{MassGap}}$ and 6% for $P_{\mathrm{NS}}$. The model could be further developed to rapidly predict the source chirp mass for candidate events in future observing runs.

astro-ph.IM

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.GA

Full-polarization millimeter wavelength variability of Sagittarius A* during the 2018 EHT campaign

Sagittarius A* (Srg A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Srg A* using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed by Chandra on 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. We find low variability in total intensity ($\sigma/\mu < 10\%$), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (~ 30% and ~ 50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between -2 and -3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Srg A*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes.

astro-ph.GA

Detection and Evolution of Linear Polarization of the Galactic Center Transient MAXI J1744-294

MAXI J1744$-$294, likely a low-mass X-ray binary system, is a Galactic-center transient source, detected at radio and X-ray wavelengths, located approximately $19''$ southeast of Sgr A*. We report the first detection of its variable linear polarization in four epochs spanning 2025 Apr 04--09. The normalized 33 and 43 GHz Stokes parameters $q$ and $u$ over the four epochs imply a common Faraday rotation screen with a rotation measure RM $=-63\,606^{+844}_{-861}$ radians m$^{-2}$, the third largest RM detected within the Galaxy. The RM is consistent with that of the Galactic center magnetar PSR J1745$-$2900, giving the first direct evidence that MAXI J1744 lies within the Galactic center region, is bound to Sgr A*, and therefore, is part of the nuclear star cluster. The uniformity in the Galactic center Faraday screen suggests that Sgr A*'s $\approx-10^5$ rad m$^{-2}$ RM is intrinsic rather than originating from an unrelated line-of-sight source. On 2025 Apr 06, we detected a secondary polarized component with an additional RM $\approx-6000$ rad m$^{-2}$, which was not seen at any other epoch. Assuming this secondary component primarily cools by synchrotron radiation, the implied local magnetic field strength is $\sim$15--30 gauss. In the context of a jetted X-ray binary progenitor, the additional RM screen and magnetic field strength are explainable with a short-lived knot in a putative jet.

astro-ph.HE

Probabilistic Interpolation of Sagittarius A*'s Multi-Wavelength Light Curves Using Diffusion Models

Understanding the variability of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) requires coordinated, multi-wavelength observations that span the electromagnetic spectrum. In this work, we focus on data from four key observatories: Chandra in the X-ray (2-8 keV), GRAVITY on the Very Large Telescope in the near-infrared (2.2 microns), Spitzer in the infrared (4.5 microns), and ALMA in the submillimeter (340 GHz). These multi-band observations are essential for probing the physics of accretion and emission near the black hole's event horizon, yet they suffer from irregular sampling, band-dependent noise, and substantial data gaps. These limitations complicate efforts to robustly identify flares and measure cross-band time lags, key diagnostics of the physical processes driving variability. To address this challenge, we introduce a diffusion-based generative model, for interpolating sparse, multivariate astrophysical time series. This represents the first application of score-based diffusion models to astronomical time series. We also present the first transformer-based model for light curve reconstruction that includes calibrated uncertainty estimates. The models are trained on simulated light curves constructed to match the statistical and observational characteristics of real Sgr A* data. These simulations capture correlated multi-band variability, realistic observation cadences, and wavelength-specific noise. We compare our models against a multi-output Gaussian Process. The diffusion model achieves superior accuracy and competitive calibration across both simulated and real datasets, demonstrating the promise of diffusion models for high-fidelity, uncertainty-aware reconstruction of multi-wavelength variability in Sgr A*.

astro-ph.IM

Hubble Study of the Proper Motion of HST-1 in the Jet of M87

The radio galaxy M87 is well known for its jet, which features a series of bright knots observable from radio to X-ray wavelengths. The most famous of these, HST-1, exhibits superluminal motion, and our analysis of {\it Chandra} data \citep{Thimmappa24} reveals a correlation between the X-ray flux of HST-1 and its separation from the core. This correlation likely arises from moving shocks in the jet, allowing measurement of the internal structure of HST-1 in the X-ray band. To follow up on these results, we use observations from the {\it Hubble} Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys HRC/WFC/SBC channel and the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3)'s UVIS to analyze the image and flux variability of HST-1. Our analysis includes 245 ACS and 120 WFC3 observations from 2002-2022, with a total exposure time of $\sim345$ ks. We study the brightness profile of the optical jet and measure the relative separation between the core and HST-1 for comparison to the X-ray. We find that the X-ray and the UV/optical emission could arise from physically distinct regions. The measured proper motion of the knot HST-1 is 1.04$\pm$0.04 c from 2002-2005 and around 2.1$\pm$0.05 c from 2005-2022. We discuss the acceleration of the jet and the flaring synchrotron emission from HST-1 from optical to X-rays.

astro-ph.GA

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In Very-Long Baseline Interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show with an expansion about co-located stations, how these trivial closure phases become non-zero with brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

astro-ph.HE

Ring Asymmetry and Spin in M87*

Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the supermassive black hole M87* depict an asymmetric ring of emission. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of M87* and its accretion disk predict that the amplitude and location of the ring's peak brightness asymmetry should fluctuate due to turbulence in the source plasma. We compare the observed distribution of brightness asymmetry amplitudes to the simulated distribution in GRMHD models, across varying black hole spin $a_{*}$. We show that, for strongly magnetized (MAD) models, three epochs of EHT data marginally disfavor $|a_{*}| \lesssim 0.2$. This is consistent with the Blandford-Znajek model for M87's jet, which predicts that M87* should have nonzero spin. We show quantitatively how future observations could improve spin constraints, and discuss how improved spin constraints could distinguish between differing jet-launching mechanisms and black hole growth scenarios.

astro-ph.HE

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the enhanced uv coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The addition of the 12-m Kitt Peak Telescope and NOEMA provides two key intermediate-length baselines to SMT and the IRAM 30-m, giving sensitivity to emission structures at scales of $\sim250~\mu$as and $\sim2500~\mu$as (0.02 pc and 0.2 pc). Without these baselines, earlier EHT observations lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a "missing flux" of order $\sim1$ Jy is expected. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases, robust against station-based gain errors, and modeled the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian offset from the compact ring emission at separations $>100~\mu$as. Our analysis reveals a Gaussian feature centered at ($\Delta$RA $\approx320~\mu$as, $\Delta$Dec $\approx60~\mu$as), a projected separation of $\approx5500$ AU, with a flux density of only $\sim60$ mJy, implying that most of the missing flux in previous studies must arise from larger scales. Brighter emission at these scales is ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred direction of the large-scale jet and is consistent with emission from the jet base. While our findings indicate detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, coverage from only two intermediate baselines limits reconstruction of its morphology. We therefore treat the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate-baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component.

astro-ph.HE

First Mid-infrared Detection and Modeling of a Flare from Sgr A*. II. Mid-IR Spectral Energy Distribution and Millimeter Polarimetry

S. D. von Fellenberg et al. (2025a, Paper I) reported the first mid-infrared detection of a flare from Sgr A*. The JWST/MIRI/MRS observations were consistent with an orbiting hotspot undergoing electron injection with a spectrum that subsequently breaks from synchrotron cooling. However, mid-infrared extinction measurements appropriate for these data were not yet determined, and therefore the temporal evolution of the absolute spectral index remained unknown. This work applies new Galactic Center extinction measurements to the flare observations. The evolution of the spectral index after the peak is fully consistent with that reported in Paper I with a maximum absolute mid-infrared spectral index $\alpha_{\rm{MIR}}=0.45\pm0.01_{\rm{stat}}\pm0.08_{\rm{sys}}$ during the second mid-infrared flare peak, matching the known near-infrared spectral index during bright states ($\alpha_{\rm{NIR}}\approx0.5$). There was a near-instantaneous change in the mid-infrared spectral index of $\Delta\alpha_{\rm{MIR}}=0.33\pm0.06_{\rm{stat}}\pm0.11_{\rm{sys}}$ at the flare onset. We propose this as a quantitative definition for this infrared flare's beginning, physically interpreted as the underlying electron distribution's transition into a hard power-law distribution. This paper also reports the SMA millimeter polarization during the flare, which shows a small, distorted, but overall clockwise-oriented Stokes Q--U loop during the third mid-infrared peak. Extrapolating the mid-infrared flux power law to the millimeter yields a variable flux consistent with the observed 220 GHz emission. These results, together with the Paper I modeling, plausibly suggest a single hotspot produced both the mid-infrared and millimeter variability during this event. However, additional flares are required to make a general statement about the millimeter and mid-infrared connection.

astro-ph.HE