arXiv subjects

David Barber

Publications and source records attributed to David Barber.

61 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

On solving Ordinary Differential Equations using Gaussian Processes

We describe a set of Gaussian Process based approaches that can be used to solve non-linear Ordinary Differential Equations. We suggest an explicit probabilistic solver and two implicit methods, one analogous to Picard iteration and the other to gradient matching. All methods have greater accuracy than previously suggested Gaussian Process approaches. We also suggest a general approach that can yield error estimates from any standard ODE solver.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2012

Variational Optimization

We discuss a general technique that can be used to form a differentiable bound on the optima of non-differentiable or discrete objective functions. We form a unified description of these methods and consider under which circumstances the bound is concave. In particular we consider two concrete applications of the method, namely sparse learning and support vector classification.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2012

On the Computational Complexity of Stochastic Controller Optimization in POMDPs

We show that the problem of finding an optimal stochastic 'blind' controller in a Markov decision process is an NP-hard problem. The corresponding decision problem is NP-hard, in PSPACE, and SQRT-SUM-hard, hence placing it in NP would imply breakthroughs in long-standing open problems in computer science. Our result establishes that the more general problem of stochastic controller optimization in POMDPs is also NP-hard. Nonetheless, we outline a special case that is convex and admits efficient global solutions.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2012

Bayesian Conditional Cointegration

Cointegration is an important topic for time-series, and describes a relationship between two series in which a linear combination is stationary. Classically, the test for cointegration is based on a two stage process in which first the linear relation between the series is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares. Subsequently a unit root test is performed on the residuals. A well-known deficiency of this classical approach is that it can lead to erroneous conclusions about the presence of cointegration. As an alternative, we present a framework for estimating whether cointegration exists using Bayesian inference which is empirically superior to the classical approach. Finally, we apply our technique to model segmented cointegration in which cointegration may exist only for limited time. In contrast to previous approaches our model makes no restriction on the number of possible cointegration segments.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2012

Clique Matrices for Statistical Graph Decomposition and Parameterising Restricted Positive Definite Matrices

We introduce Clique Matrices as an alternative representation of undirected graphs, being a generalisation of the incidence matrix representation. Here we use clique matrices to decompose a graph into a set of possibly overlapping clusters, de ned as well-connected subsets of vertices. The decomposition is based on a statistical description which encourages clusters to be well connected and few in number. Inference is carried out using a variational approximation. Clique matrices also play a natural role in parameterising positive de nite matrices under zero constraints on elements of the matrix. We show that clique matrices can parameterise all positive de nite matrices restricted according to a decomposable graph and form a structured Factor Analysis approximation in the non-decomposable case.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2012

Efficient Inference in Markov Control Problems

Markov control algorithms that perform smooth, non-greedy updates of the policy have been shown to be very general and versatile, with policy gradient and Expectation Maximisation algorithms being particularly popular. For these algorithms, marginal inference of the reward weighted trajectory distribution is required to perform policy updates. We discuss a new exact inference algorithm for these marginals in the finite horizon case that is more efficient than the standard approach based on classical forward-backward recursions. We also provide a principled extension to infinite horizon Markov Decision Problems that explicitly accounts for an infinite horizon. This extension provides a novel algorithm for both policy gradients and Expectation Maximisation in infinite horizon problems.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2005

Optimal Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity for Precise Action Potential Firing

In timing-based neural codes, neurons have to emit action potentials at precise moments in time. We use a supervised learning paradigm to derive a synaptic update rule that optimizes via gradient ascent the likelihood of postsynaptic firing at one or several desired firing times. We find that the optimal strategy of up- and downregulating synaptic efficacies can be described by a two-phase learning window similar to that of Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP). If the presynaptic spike arrives before the desired postsynaptic spike timing, our optimal learning rule predicts that the synapse should become potentiated. The dependence of the potentiation on spike timing directly reflects the time course of an excitatory postsynaptic potential. The presence and amplitude of depression of synaptic efficacies for reversed spike timing depends on how constraints are implemented in the optimization problem. Two different constraints, i.e., control of postsynaptic rates or control of temporal locality,are discussed.

q-bio.NC↗