arXiv subjects

David Gotz

Publications and source records attributed to David Gotz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AI-Centered Grand Challenges in Visual Analytics for Healthcare: Synthesizing the VAHC 2025 Community Experience

The intersection of AI, healthcare, and visualization is evolving rapidly, posing challenges that cut across disciplinary boundaries and resist easy resolution. The Visual Analytics in Healthcare workshop (VAHC), co-located every other year at the IEEE VIS conference and the AMIA (American Medical Informatics Association) annual conference, has served as a forum to connect the visualization and medical informatics community since 2010. In 2025, to celebrate the 16th edition, we used the workshop as an opportunity to consolidate the community's collective experience (and expertise) and identify Grand Challenges where the field should prioritize going forward. We combined thematic coding of the 15 accepted VAHC workshop papers with structured group discussions among more than 40 participants, organized around three major themes: "Technical innovation vs. clinical reality", "Human-centered and scalable VAHC", and "From foundations to actionable insights", followed by post-workshop reflexive analysis. Across all three groups, AI emerged as the most consistently recurring concern. In this paper, we report our AI-centered insights from the VAHC 2025 group activity, contextualize them against the broader literature along five Grand Challenges themes, and distill them into five challenge clusters, each concluded with recommendations for future research directions that cross disciplinary boundaries: (1) trust and bias, (2) data and infrastructure, (3) explainability and communication, (4) human-AI interaction, and (5) model reliability and validation. We share these challenges and their associated research directions as a starting point for discussion and collaboration across the healthcare, AI, and visualization communities. All supplemental materials are available at https://osf.io/p79uj.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Enhanced Self-Learning with Epistemologically-Informed LLM Dialogue

Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced self-learning tools, enabling more personalized interactions. However, learners struggle to engage in meaningful dialogue and process complex information. To alleviate this, we incorporate epistemological frameworks within an LLM-based approach to self-learning, reducing the cognitive load on learners and fostering deeper engagement and holistic understanding. Through a formative study (N=26), we identified epistemological differences in self-learner interaction patterns. Building upon these findings, we present \textit{CausaDisco}, a dialogue-based interactive system that integrates Aristotle's \textit{Four Causes} framework into LLM prompts to enhance cognitive support for self-learning. This approach guides learners' self-learning journeys by automatically generating coherent and contextually appropriate follow-up questions. A controlled study (N=36) demonstrated that, compared to baseline, \textit{CausaDisco} fostered more engaging interactions, inspired sophisticated exploration, and facilitated multifaceted perspectives. This research contributes to HCI by expanding the understanding of LLMs as educational agents and providing design implications for this emerging class of tools.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Contextualization or Rationalization? The Effect of Causal Priors on Data Visualization Interpretation

Understanding how individuals interpret charts is a crucial concern for visual data communication. This imperative has motivated a number of studies, including past work demonstrating that causal priors -- a priori beliefs about causal relationships between concepts -- can have significant influences on the perceived strength of variable relationships inferred from visualizations. This paper builds on these previous results, demonstrating that causal priors can also influence the types of patterns that people perceive as the most salient within ambiguous scatterplots that have roughly equal evidence for trend and cluster patterns. Using a mixed-design approach that combines a large-scale online experiment for breadth of findings with an in-person think-aloud study for analytical depth, we investigated how users' interpretations are influenced by the interplay between causal priors and the visualized data patterns. Our analysis suggests two archetypal reasoning behaviors through which people often make their observations: contextualization, in which users accept a visual pattern that aligns with causal priors and use their existing knowledge to enrich interpretation, and rationalization, in which users encounter a pattern that conflicts with causal priors and attempt to explain away the discrepancy by invoking external factors, such as positing confounding variables or data selection bias. These findings provide initial evidence highlighting the critical role of causal priors in shaping high-level visualization comprehension, and introduce a vocabulary for describing how users reason about data that either confirms or challenges prior beliefs of causality.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Who Leads? Comparing Human-Centric and Model-Centric Strategies for Defining ML Target Variables

Predictive modeling has the potential to enhance human decision-making. However, many predictive models fail in practice due to problematic problem formulation in cases where the prediction target is an abstract concept or construct and practitioners need to define an appropriate target variable as a proxy to operationalize the construct of interest. The choice of an appropriate proxy target variable is rarely self-evident in practice, requiring both domain knowledge and iterative data modeling. This process is inherently collaborative, involving both domain experts and data scientists. In this work, we explore how human-machine teaming can support this process by accelerating iterations while preserving human judgment. We study the impact of two human-machine teaming strategies on proxy construction: 1) relevance-first: humans leading the process by selecting relevant proxies, and 2) performance-first: machines leading the process by recommending proxies based on predictive performance. Based on a controlled user study of a proxy construction task (N = 20), we show that the performance-first strategy facilitated faster iterations and decision-making, but also biased users towards well-performing proxies that are misaligned with the application goal. Our study highlights the opportunities and risks of human-machine teaming in operationalizing machine learning target variables, yielding insights for future research to explore the opportunities and mitigate the risks.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Visual Analytics for Causal Reasoning from Real-World Health Data

The increasing capture and analysis of large-scale longitudinal health data offer opportunities to improve healthcare and advance medical understanding. However, a critical gap exists between (a) -- the observation of patterns and correlations, versus (b) -- the understanding of true causal mechanisms that drive outcomes. An accurate understanding of the underlying mechanisms that cause various changes in medical status is crucial for decision-makers across various healthcare domains and roles, yet inferring causality from real-world observational data is difficult for both methodological and practical challenges. This Grand Challenge advocates increased Visual Analytics (VA) research on this topic to empower people with the tool for sound causal reasoning from health data. We note this is complicated by the complex nature of medical data -- the volume, variety, sparsity, and temporality of health data streams make the use of causal inference algorithms difficult. Combined with challenges imposed by the realities of health-focused settings, including time constraints and traditional medical work practices, existing causal reasoning approaches are valuable but insufficient. We argue that advances in research can lead to new VA tools that augment human expertise with intuitive and robust causal inference capabilities, which can help realize a new paradigm of data-driven, causality-aware healthcare practices that improve human health outcomes.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

Beyond Correlation: Incorporating Counterfactual Guidance to Better Support Exploratory Visual Analysis

Providing effective guidance for users has long been an important and challenging task for efficient exploratory visual analytics, especially when selecting variables for visualization in high-dimensional datasets. Correlation is the most widely applied metric for guidance in statistical and analytical tools, however a reliance on correlation may lead users towards false positives when interpreting causal relations in the data. In this work, inspired by prior insights on the benefits of counterfactual visualization in supporting visual causal inference, we propose a novel, simple, and efficient counterfactual guidance method to enhance causal inference performance in guided exploratory analytics based on insights and concerns gathered from expert interviews. Our technique aims to capitalize on the benefits of counterfactual approaches while reducing their complexity for users. We integrated counterfactual guidance into an exploratory visual analytics system, and using a synthetically generated ground-truth causal dataset, conducted a comparative user study and evaluated to what extent counterfactual guidance can help lead users to more precise visual causal inferences. The results suggest that counterfactual guidance improved visual causal inference performance, and also led to different exploratory behaviors compared to correlation-based guidance. Based on these findings, we offer future directions and challenges for incorporating counterfactual guidance to better support exploratory visual analytics.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

Causal Priors and Their Influence on Judgements of Causality in Visualized Data

"Correlation does not imply causation" is a famous mantra in statistical and visual analysis. However, consumers of visualizations often draw causal conclusions when only correlations between variables are shown. In this paper, we investigate factors that contribute to causal relationships users perceive in visualizations. We collected a corpus of concept pairs from variables in widely used datasets and created visualizations that depict varying correlative associations using three typical statistical chart types. We conducted two MTurk studies on (1) preconceived notions on causal relations without charts, and (2) perceived causal relations with charts, for each concept pair. Our results indicate that people make assumptions about causal relationships between pairs of concepts even without seeing any visualized data. Moreover, our results suggest that these assumptions constitute causal priors that, in combination with visualized association, impact how data visualizations are interpreted. The results also suggest that causal priors may lead to over- or under-estimation in perceived causal relations in different circumstances, and that those priors can also impact users' confidence in their causal assessments. In addition, our results align with prior work, indicating that chart type may also affect causal inference. Using data from the studies, we develop a model to capture the interaction between causal priors and visualized associations as they combine to impact a user's perceived causal relations. In addition to reporting the study results and analyses, we provide an open dataset of causal priors for 56 specific concept pairs that can serve as a potential benchmark for future studies. We also suggest remaining challenges and heuristic-based guidelines to help designers improve visualization design choices to better support visual causal inference.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

Using Counterfactuals to Improve Causal Inferences from Visualizations

Traditional approaches to data visualization have often focused on comparing different subsets of data, and this is reflected in the many techniques developed and evaluated over the years for visual comparison. Similarly, common workflows for exploratory visualization are built upon the idea of users interactively applying various filter and grouping mechanisms in search of new insights. This paradigm has proven effective at helping users identify correlations between variables that can inform thinking and decision-making. However, recent studies show that consumers of visualizations often draw causal conclusions even when not supported by the data. Motivated by these observations, this article highlights recent advances from a growing community of researchers exploring methods that aim to directly support visual causal inference. However, many of these approaches have their own limitations which limit their use in many real-world scenarios. This article therefore also outlines a set of key open challenges and corresponding priorities for new research to advance the state of the art in visual causal inference.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

An Empirical Study of Counterfactual Visualization to Support Visual Causal Inference

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to emerge as a technique being applied within visualization research. However, it remains unclear to what extent counterfactuals can aid with visual data communication. In this paper, we primarily focus on assessing the quality of users' understanding of data when provided with counterfactual visualizations. We propose a preliminary model of causality comprehension by connecting theories from causal inference and visual data communication. Leveraging this model, we conducted an empirical study to explore how counterfactuals can improve users' understanding of data in static visualizations. Our results indicate that visualizing counterfactuals had a positive impact on participants' interpretations of causal relations within datasets. These results motivate a discussion of how to more effectively incorporate counterfactuals into data visualizations.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Human-Computer Collaboration for Visual Analytics: an Agent-based Framework

The visual analytics community has long aimed to understand users better and assist them in their analytic endeavors. As a result, numerous conceptual models of visual analytics aim to formalize common workflows, techniques, and goals leveraged by analysts. While many of the existing approaches are rich in detail, they each are specific to a particular aspect of the visual analytic process. Furthermore, with an ever-expanding array of novel artificial intelligence techniques and advances in visual analytic settings, existing conceptual models may not provide enough expressivity to bridge the two fields. In this work, we propose an agent-based conceptual model for the visual analytic process by drawing parallels from the artificial intelligence literature. We present three examples from the visual analytics literature as case studies and examine them in detail using our framework. Our simple yet robust framework unifies the visual analytic pipeline to enable researchers and practitioners to reason about scenarios that are becoming increasingly prominent in the field, namely mixed-initiative, guided, and collaborative analysis. Furthermore, it will allow us to characterize analysts, visual analytic settings, and guidance from the lenses of human agents, environments, and artificial agents, respectively.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

How Does Imperfect Automatic Indexing Affect Semantic Search Performance?

Documents in the health domain are often annotated with semantic concepts (i.e., terms) from controlled vocabularies. As the volume of these documents gets large, the annotation work is increasingly done by algorithms. Compared to humans, automatic indexing algorithms are imperfect and may assign wrong terms to documents, which affect subsequent search tasks where queries contain these terms. In this work, we aim to understand the performance impact of using imperfectly assigned terms in Boolean semantic searches. We used MeSH terms and biomedical literature search as a case study. We implemented multiple automatic indexing algorithms on real-world Boolean queries that consist of MeSH terms, and found that (1) probabilistic logic can handle inaccurately assigned terms better than traditional Boolean logic, (2) query-level performance is mostly limited by lowest-performing terms in a query, and (3) mixing a small amount of human indexing with automatic indexing can regain excellent query-level performance. These findings provide important implications for future work on automatic indexing.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

GRAFS: Graphical Faceted Search System to Support Conceptual Understanding in Exploratory Search

When people search for information about a new topic within large document collections, they implicitly construct a mental model of the unfamiliar information space to represent what they currently know and guide their exploration into the unknown. Building this mental model can be challenging as it requires not only finding relevant documents, but also synthesizing important concepts and the relationships that connect those concepts both within and across documents. This paper describes a novel interactive approach designed to help users construct a mental model of an unfamiliar information space during exploratory search. We propose a new semantic search system to organize and visualize important concepts and their relations for a set of search results. A user study ($n=20$) was conducted to compare the proposed approach against a baseline faceted search system on exploratory literature search tasks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is more effective in helping users recognize relationships between key concepts, leading to a more sophisticated understanding of the search topic while maintaining similar functionality and usability as a faceted search system.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

A Design Space for Surfacing Content Recommendations in Visual Analytic Platforms

Recommendation algorithms have been leveraged in various ways within visualization systems to assist users as they perform of a range of information tasks. One common focus for these techniques has been the recommendation of content, rather than visual form, as a means to assist users in the identification of information that is relevant to their task context. A wide variety of techniques have been proposed to address this general problem, with a range of design choices in how these solutions surface relevant information to users. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in how visualization systems surface recommended content to users during users' visual analysis; introduces a four-dimensional design space for visual content recommendation based on a characterization of prior work; and discusses key observations regarding common patterns and future research opportunities.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Local, Interactive, and Actionable: a Pandemic Behavioral Nudge

The informational environment surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic has been widely recognized as fragmented, politicized, and complex [1]. This has resulted in polarized public views regarding the veracity of scientific communication, the severity of the threat posed by the virus, and the necessity of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which can slow the spread of infections [2]. This paper describes CovidCommitment.org, an effort toward enhancing NPI adoption through the combination of a social behavioral commitment device and interactive map-based visualizations of localized infection data as tabulated via a 1-hourdrive-time isochrone. This paper describes the system design and presents a preliminary analysis of user behavior within the system.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Enabling Longitudinal Exploratory Analysis of Clinical COVID Data

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the world, data is being gathered and analyzed to better understand the disease. Recognizing the potential for visual analytics technologies to support exploratory analysis and hypothesis generation from longitudinal clinical data, a team of collaborators worked to apply existing event sequence visual analytics technologies to a longitudinal clinical data from a cohort of 998 patients with high rates of COVID-19 infection. This paper describes the initial steps toward this goal, including: (1) the data transformation and processing work required to prepare the data for visual analysis, (2) initial findings and observations, and (3) qualitative feedback and lessons learned which highlight key features as well as limitations to address in future work.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Improving Visualization Interpretation Using Counterfactuals

Complex, high-dimensional data is used in a wide range of domains to explore problems and make decisions. Analysis of high-dimensional data, however, is vulnerable to the hidden influence of confounding variables, especially as users apply ad hoc filtering operations to visualize only specific subsets of an entire dataset. Thus, visual data-driven analysis can mislead users and encourage mistaken assumptions about causality or the strength of relationships between features. This work introduces a novel visual approach designed to reveal the presence of confounding variables via counterfactual possibilities during visual data analysis. It is implemented in CoFact, an interactive visualization prototype that determines and visualizes \textit{counterfactual subsets} to better support user exploration of feature relationships. Using publicly available datasets, we conducted a controlled user study to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach; the results indicate that users exposed to counterfactual visualizations formed more careful judgments about feature-to-outcome relationships.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Modeling and Leveraging Analytic Focus During Exploratory Visual Analysis

Visual analytics systems enable highly interactive exploratory data analysis. Across a range of fields, these technologies have been successfully employed to help users learn from complex data. However, these same exploratory visualization techniques make it easy for users to discover spurious findings. This paper proposes new methods to monitor a user's analytic focus during visual analysis of structured datasets and use it to surface relevant articles that contextualize the visualized findings. Motivated by interactive analyses of electronic health data, this paper introduces a formal model of analytic focus, a computational approach to dynamically update the focus model at the time of user interaction, and a prototype application that leverages this model to surface relevant medical publications to users during visual analysis of a large corpus of medical records. Evaluation results with 24 users show that the modeling approach has high levels of accuracy and is able to surface highly relevant medical abstracts.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Visual Causality Analysis of Event Sequence Data

Causality is crucial to understanding the mechanisms behind complex systems and making decisions that lead to intended outcomes. Event sequence data is widely collected from many real-world processes, such as electronic health records, web clickstreams, and financial transactions, which transmit a great deal of information reflecting the causal relations among event types. Unfortunately, recovering causalities from observational event sequences is challenging, as the heterogeneous and high-dimensional event variables are often connected to rather complex underlying event excitation mechanisms that are hard to infer from limited observations. Many existing automated causal analysis techniques suffer from poor explainability and fail to include an adequate amount of human knowledge. In this paper, we introduce a visual analytics method for recovering causalities in event sequence data. We extend the Granger causality analysis algorithm on Hawkes processes to incorporate user feedback into causal model refinement. The visualization system includes an interactive causal analysis framework that supports bottom-up causal exploration, iterative causal verification and refinement, and causal comparison through a set of novel visualizations and interactions. We report two forms of evaluation: a quantitative evaluation of the model improvements resulting from the user-feedback mechanism, and a qualitative evaluation through case studies in different application domains to demonstrate the usefulness of the system.

cs.AI↗