arXiv subjects

David Nesvorny

Publications and source records attributed to David Nesvorny.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Trans-Neptunian Binaries as Evidence for Planetesimal Formation by the Streaming Instability

A critical step toward the emergence of planets in a protoplanetary disk consists in accretion of planetesimals, bodies 1-1000 km in size, from smaller disk constituents. This process is poorly understood partly because we lack good observational constraints on the complex physical processes that contribute to planetesimal formation. In the outer solar system, the best place to look for clues is the Kuiper belt, where icy planetesimals survived to this day. Here we report evidence that Kuiper belt planetesimals formed by the streaming instability, a process in which aerodynamically concentrated clumps of pebbles gravitationally collapse into 100-km-class bodies. Gravitational collapse was previously suggested to explain the ubiquity of equal-size binaries in the Kuiper belt. We analyze new hydrodynamical simulations of the streaming instability to determine the model expectations for the spatial orientation of binary orbits. The predicted broad inclination distribution with 80% of prograde binary orbits matches the observations of trans-Neptunian binaries. The formation models which imply predominantly retrograde binary orbits can be ruled out. Given its applicability over a broad range of protoplanetary disk conditions, it is expected that the streaming instability seeded planetesimal formation also elsewhere in the solar system, and beyond.

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arXiv2019

How to Find a Planet from Transit Variations

Here we describe a story behind the discovery of Kepler-46, which was the first exoplanetary system detected and characterized from a method known as the transit timing variations (TTVs). The TTV method relies on the gravitational interaction between planets orbiting the same star. If transits of at least one of the planets are detected, precise measurements of its transit times can be used, at least in principle, to detect and characterize other non-transiting planets in the system. Kepler-46 was the first case for which this method was shown to work in practice. Other detections and characterizations followed (e.g., Kepler-88). The TTV method plays an important role in addressing the incompleteness of planetary systems detected from transits.

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arXiv2019

Binary Survival in the Outer Solar System

As indicated by their special characteristics, the cold classical Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) formed and survived at 42-47 au. Notably, they show a large fraction of equal-size binaries whose formation is probably related to the accretion of KBOs themselves. These binaries are uncommon in other --hot, resonant, scattered-- populations, which are thought to have been implanted from the massive disk below 30 au to >30 au during Neptune's migration. Here we highlight the possibility that equal-size binaries formed in the disk but were subsequently removed by impacts and/or dynamical effects (e.g., scattering encounters with Neptune). We determine the dependence of these processes on the size and separation of binary components. Our results indicate that tighter binaries, if they formed in the massive disk, have relatively good chances of survival (unless the disk was long-lived). In contrast, the widest binaries in the hot population, such as 2002 VF130, have a very low survival probability (<1%) even if the massive disk was short-lived. They may represent a trace of lucky survivors of a much larger population of the original disk binaries, or they formed at ~30-40~au and dodged the impact- and encounter-related perturbations that we studied here. We find that all known satellites of the largest KBOs would survive during the dynamical implantation of these bodies in the Kuiper belt. The low orbital eccentricities of Pluto's small moons may have been excited by impacts and/or encounters of the Pluto system to Neptune.

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arXiv2019

Kuiper belt: formation and evolution

This chapter reviews accretion models for Kuiper belt objects (KBOs), discussing in particular the compatibility of the observed properties of the KBO population with the streaming instability paradigm. Then it discusses how the dynamical structure of the KBO population, including the formation of its 5 sub-components (cold, hot, resonant, scattered and fossilized), can be quantitatively understood in the framewok of the giant planet instability. We also establish the connections between the KBO population and the Trojans of Jupiter and Neptune, the irregular satellites of all giant planets, the Oort cloud and the D-type main belt asteroids. Finally, we discuss the collisional evolution of the KBO population, arguing that the current size-frequency distribution below 100~km in size has been achieved as a collisional equilibrium in a few tens of My inside the original massive trans-Neptunain disk, possibly with the exception of the cold population sub-component.

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arXiv2018

Evidence for Very Early Migration of the Solar System Planets from the Patroclus-Menoetius binary Jupiter Trojan

The orbital distribution of trans-Neptunian objects provides strong evidence for the radial migration of Neptune. The outer planets' orbits are thought to have become unstable during the early stages with Jupiter having scattering encounters with a Neptune-class planet. As a consequence, Jupiter jumped inward by a fraction of an au, as required from inner solar system constraints, and obtained its current orbital eccentricity. The timing of these events is often linked to the lunar Late Heavy Bombardment that ended ~700 Myr after the dispersal of the protosolar nebula (t_0). Here we show instead that planetary migration started shortly after t_0. Such early migration is inferred from the survival of the Patroclus-Menoetius binary Jupiter Trojan. The binary formed at t <~ t_0 within a massive planetesimal disk once located beyond Neptune. The longer the binary stayed in the disk, the greater the likelihood that collisions would strip its components from one another. The simulations of its survival indicate that the disk had to have been dispersed by migrating planets within <100 Myr of t_0. This constraint implies that the planetary migration is unrelated to the formation of the youngest lunar basins.

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arXiv2018

The excitation of a primordial cold asteroid belt as an outcome of the planetary instability

The main asteroid belt (MB) is low in mass but dynamically excited. Here we propose a new mechanism to excite the MB during the giant planet ('Nice model') instability, which is expected to have featured repeated close encounters between Jupiter and one or more ice giants ('Jumping Jupiter' -- JJ). We show that, when Jupiter temporarily reaches a high enough level of excitation, both in eccentricity and inclination it induces strong forced vectors of eccentricity and inclination across the MB region. Because during the JJ instability Jupiter's orbit `jumps' around, the forced vectors keep changing both in magnitude and phase throughout the whole MB region. The entire cold primordial MB is thus excited as a natural outcome of the JJ instability. The level of such an excitation, however, is typically larger than the current orbital excitation observed in the MB. We show that the subsequent evolution of the Solar System is capable of reshaping the resultant over-excited MB to its present day orbital state, and that a strong mass depletion ($\sim$90$\%$) is associated to the JJ instability phase and its subsequent evolution throughout the age of the Solar System.

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arXiv2018

Dynamical Evolution of the Early Solar System

Several properties of the Solar System, including the wide radial spacing of the giant planets, can be explained if planets radially migrated by exchanging orbital energy and momentum with outer disk planetesimals. Neptune's planetesimal-driven migration, in particular, has a strong advocate in the dynamical structure of the Kuiper belt. A dynamical instability is thought to have occurred during the early stages with Jupiter having close encounters with a Neptune-class planet. As a result of the encounters, Jupiter acquired its current orbital eccentricity and jumped inward by a fraction of an au, as required for the survival of the terrestrial planets and from asteroid belt constraints. Planetary encounters also contributed to capture of Jupiter Trojans and irregular satellites of the giant planets. Here we discuss the dynamical evolution of the early Solar System with an eye to determining how models of planetary migration/instability can be constrained from its present architecture.

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arXiv2018

Debiased orbit and absolute-magnitude distributions for near-Earth objects

The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies of individual NEOs and more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and absolute magnitude $H$ in the range $17<H<25$. The modeling approach improves upon the methodology originally developed by Bottke et al. (2000; Science 288, 2190-2194) in that it is, for example, based on more realistic orbit distributions and uses source-specific absolute-magnitude distributions that allow for a power-law slope that varies with $H$. We divide the main asteroid belt into six different entrance routes or regions (ER) to the NEO region: the $ν_6$, 3:1J, 5:2J and 2:1J resonance complexes as well as Hungarias and Phocaeas. In addition we include the Jupiter-family comets as the primary cometary source of NEOs. We calibrate the model against NEO detections by Catalina Sky Surveys' stations 703 and G96 during 2005-2012, and utilize the complementary nature of these two systems to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated to the resulting model. The most important ERs are the $ν_6$ and 3:1J resonance complexes with JFCs contributing a few percent of NEOs on average. We predict that there are $962^{+52}_{-56}$ ($802^{+48}_{-42}\times10^3$) NEOs with $H<17.75$ ($H<25$) and these numbers are in agreement with the most recent estimates found in the literature (the uncertainty estimates only account for the random component).

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arXiv2018

Bi-lobed Shape of Comet 67P from a Collapsed Binary

The Rosetta spacecraft observations revealed that the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko consists of two similarly sized lobes connected by a narrow neck. Here we evaluate the possibility that 67P is a collapsed binary. We assume that the progenitor of 67P was a binary and consider various physical mechanisms that could have brought the binary components together, including small-scale impacts and gravitational encounters with planets. We find that 67P could be a primordial body (i.e., not a collisional fragment) if the outer planetesimal disk lasted <10 Myr before it was dispersed by migrating Neptune. The probability of binary collapse by impact is 30% for tightly bound binaries. Most km-class binaries become collisionally dissolved. Roughly 10% of the surviving binaries later evolve to become contact binaries during the disk dispersal, when bodies suffer gravitational encounters to Neptune. Overall, the processes described in this work do not seem to be efficient enough to explain the large fraction (~67%) of bi-lobed cometary nuclei inferred from spacecraft imaging.

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arXiv2017

Checking the Compatibility of the Cold Kuiper Belt with a Planetary Instability Migration Model

The origin of the orbital structure of the cold component of the Kuiper belt is still a hot subject of investigation. Several features of the solar system suggest that the giant planets underwent a phase of global dynamical instability, but the actual dynamical evolution of the planets during the instability is still debated. To explain the structure of the cold Kuiper belt, Nesvorny (2015, AJ 150,68) argued for a soft instability, during which Neptune never achieved a very eccentric orbit. Here we investigate the possibility of a more violent instability, from an initially more compact fully resonant configuration of 5 giant planets. We show that the orbital structure of the cold Kuiper belt can be reproduced quite well provided that the cold population formed in situ, with an outer edge between 44 and 45 au and never had a large mass.

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arXiv2017

Constraining the giant planets' initial configuration from their evolution: implications for the timing of the planetary instability

Recent works on planetary migration show that the orbital structure of the Kuiper belt can be very well reproduced if before the onset of the planetary instability Neptune underwent a long-range planetesimal-driven migration up to $\sim$28 au. However, considering that all giant planets should have been captured in mean motion resonances among themselves during the gas-disk phase, it is not clear whether such a very specific evolution for Neptune is possible, nor whether the instability could have happened at late times. Here, we first investigate which initial resonant configuration of the giant planets can be compatible with Neptune being extracted from the resonant chain and migrating to $\sim$28 au before that the planetary instability happened. We address the late instability issue by investigating the conditions where the planets can stay in resonance for about 400 My. Our results indicate that this can happen only in the case where the planetesimal disk is beyond a specific minimum distance $δ_{stab}$ from Neptune. Then, if there is a sufficient amount of dust produced in the planetesimal disk, that drifts inwards, Neptune can enter in a slow dust-driven migration phase for hundreds of Mys until it reaches a critical distance $δ_{mig}$ from the disk. From that point, faster planetesimal-driven migration takes over and Neptune continues migrating outward until the instability happens. We conclude that, although an early instability reproduces more easily the evolution of Neptune required to explain the structure of the Kuiper belt, such evolution is also compatible with a late instability.

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arXiv2017

Is the Grand Tack model compatible with the orbital distribution of main belt asteroids?

The Asteroid Belt is characterized by the radial mixing of bodies with different physical properties, a very low mass compared to Minimum Mass Solar Nebula expectations and has an excited orbital distribution. Models of the evolution of the Asteroid Belt show that the origin of its structure is strongly linked to the process of terrestrial planet formation. The Grand Tack model presents a possible solution to the conundrum of reconciling the small mass of Mars with the properties of the Asteroid Belt, including the mass depletion, radial mixing and orbital excitation. However, while the inclination distribution produced in the Grand Tack model is in good agreement with the one observed, the eccentricity distribution is skewed towards values larger than those found today. Here, we evaluate the evolution of the orbital properties of the Asteroid Belt from the end of the Grand Tack model (at the end of the gas nebula phase when planets emerge from the dispersing gas disk), throughout the subsequent evolution of the Solar System including an instability of the Giant Planets approximately 400 My later. Before the instability, the terrestrial planets were modeled on dynamically cold orbits with Jupiter and Saturn locked in a 3:2 mean motion resonance. The model continues for an additional 4.1 Gy after the giant planet instability. Our results show that the eccentricity distribution obtained in the Grand Tack model evolves towards one very similar to that currently observed, and the semimajor axis distribution does the same. The inclination distribution remains nearly unchanged with a slight preference for depletion at low inclination; this leads to the conclusion that the inclination distribution at the end of the Grand Tack is a bit over-excited.

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arXiv2016

Modeling the Historical Flux of Planetary Impactors

The impact cratering record of the Moon and the terrestrial planets provides important clues about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. Especially intriguing is the epoch 3.8-3.9 Gyr ago (Ga), known as the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB), when the youngest lunar basins such as Imbrium and Orientale formed. The LHB was suggested to originate from a slowly declining impactor flux or from a late dynamical instability. Here we develop a model for the historical flux of large asteroid impacts and discuss how it depends on various parameters, including the time and nature of the planetary migration/instability. We find that the asteroid impact flux dropped by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude during the first 1 Gyr and remained relatively unchanged over the last 3 Gyr. The early impacts were produced by asteroids whose orbits became excited during the planetary migration/instability, and by those originating from the inner extension of the main belt (E-belt; semimajor axis 1.6<a<2.1 au). The profiles obtained for the early and late versions of the planetary instability initially differ, but end up being similar after ~3 Ga. Thus, the time of the instability can only be determined by considering the cratering and other constraints during the first ~1.5 Gyr of the Solar System history. Our absolute calibration of the impact flux indicates that asteroids were probably not responsible for the LHB, independently of whether the instability happened early or late, because the calibrated flux is not large enough to explain Imbrium/Orientale and a significant share of large lunar craters. Comets and leftovers of the terrestrial planet formation provided additional, and probably dominant source of impacts during early epochs.

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arXiv2016

The Asteroid Belt as a Relic From a Chaotic Early Solar System

The orbital structure of the asteroid belt holds a record of the Solar System's dynamical history. The current belt only contains ${\rm \sim 10^{-3}}$ Earth masses yet the asteroids' orbits are dynamically excited, with a large spread in eccentricity and inclination. In the context of models of terrestrial planet formation, the belt may have been excited by Jupiter's orbital migration. The terrestrial planets can also be reproduced without invoking a migrating Jupiter; however, as it requires a severe mass deficit beyond Earth's orbit, this model systematically under-excites the asteroid belt. Here we show that the orbits of the asteroids may have been excited to their current state if Jupiter and Saturn's early orbits were chaotic. Stochastic variations in the gas giants' orbits cause resonances to continually jump across the main belt and excite the asteroids' orbits on a timescale of tens of millions of years. While hydrodynamical simulations show that the gas giants were likely in mean motion resonance at the end of the gaseous disk phase, small perturbations could have driven them into a chaotic but stable state. The gas giants' current orbits were achieved later, during an instability in the outer Solar System. Although it is well known that the present-day Solar System exhibits chaotic behavior, our results suggest that the early Solar System may also have been chaotic.

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arXiv2016

The orbital distribution of trans-Neptunian objects beyond 50 au

The dynamical structure of the Kuiper belt beyond 50 au is not well understood. Here we report results of a numerical model with long-range, slow and grainy migration of Neptune. The model implies that bodies scattered outward by Neptune to semimajor axes a>50 au often evolve into resonances which subsequently act to raise the perihelion distances of orbits to q>40 au. The implication of the model is that the orbits with 50 40 au should cluster near (but not in) the resonances with Neptune (3:1 at a=62.6 au, 4:1 at a=75.9 au, 5:1 at a=88.0 au, etc.). The recent detection of several distant Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) near resonances is consistent with this prediction, but it is not yet clear whether the orbits are really non-resonant as our model predicts. We estimate from the model that there should presently be ~1600-2400 bodies at the 3:1 resonance and ~1000-1400 bodies at the 4:1 resonance (for q>40 au and diameters D>100 km). These results favorably compare with the population census of distant KBOs inferred from existing observations.

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arXiv2016

Neptune's Orbital Migration Was Grainy, Not Smooth

The Kuiper belt is a population of icy bodies beyond the orbit of Neptune. The complex orbital structure of the Kuiper belt, including several categories of objects inside and outside of resonances with Neptune, emerged as a result of Neptune's migration into an outer planetesimal disk. An outstanding problem with the existing migration models is that they invariably predict excessively large resonant populations, while observations show that the non-resonant orbits are in fact common (e.g., the main belt population is 2-4 times larger than Plutinos in the 3:2 resonance). Here we show that this problem can resolved if it is assumed that Neptune's migration was grainy, as expected from scattering encounters of Neptune with massive planetesimals. The grainy migration acts to destabilize resonant bodies with large libration amplitudes, a fraction of which ends up on stable non-resonant orbits. Thus, the non-resonant--to--resonant ratio obtained with the grainy migration is higher, up to ~10 times higher for the range of parameters investigated here, than in a model with smooth migration. The grainy migration leads to a narrower distribution of the libration amplitudes in the 3:2 resonance. The best fit to observations is obtained when it is assumed that the outer planetesimal disk below 30 AU contained 1000-4000 Plutos, or ~1000 bodies twice as massive as Pluto. We find that the probability for an outer disk object to end up on a stable orbit in the Kuiper belt is ~10^{-3}. Together, these results are consistent with having only two (known) Pluto-mass bodies in the Kuiper belt today (Pluto and Eris). The combined mass of Pluto-class objects in the original disk was ~2-8 Earth masses (M_Earth), which represents 10-40% of the estimated disk mass (M_disk ~ 20 M_Earth).

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arXiv2015

The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK): V. A Survey of 41 Planetary Candidates for Exomoons

We present a survey of 41 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) for exomoons using Bayesian photodynamics, more than tripling the number of KOIs surveyed with this technique. We find no compelling evidence for exomoons although thirteen KOIs yield spurious detections driven by instrumental artifacts, stellar activity and/or perturbations from unseen bodies. Regarding the latter, we find seven KOIs exhibiting >5 sigma evidence of transit timing variations, including the 'mega-Earth' Kepler-10c, likely indicating an additional planet in that system. We exploit the moderately large sample of 57 unique KOIs surveyed to date to infer several useful statistics. For example, although there is a diverse range in sensitivities, we find that we are sensitive to Pluto-Charon mass-ratio systems for ~40% of KOIs studied and Earth-Moon mass-ratios for 1 in 8 cases. In terms of absolute mass, our limits probe down to 1.7 Ganymede masses, with a sensitivity to Earth-mass moons for 1 in 3 cases studied and to the smallest moons capable of sustaining an Earth-like atmosphere (0.3 Earth masses) for 1 in 4. Despite the lack of positive detections to date, we caution against drawing conclusions yet, since our most interesting objects remain under analysis. Finally, we point out that had we searched for the photometric transit signals of exomoons alone, rather than using photodynamics, we estimate that 1 in 4 KOIs would have erroneously been concluded to harbor exomoons due to residual time correlated noise in the Kepler data, posing a serious problem for alternative methods.

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arXiv2015

Jumping Neptune Can Explain the Kuiper Belt Kernel

The Kuiper belt is a population of icy bodies beyond the orbit of Neptune. A particularly puzzling and up-to-now unexplained feature of the Kuiper belt is the so-called `kernel', a concentration of orbits with semimajor axes a~44 AU, eccentricities e~0.05, and inclinations i<5 deg. Here we show that the Kuiper belt kernel can be explained if Neptune's otherwise smooth migration was interrupted by a discontinuous change of Neptune's semimajor axis when Neptune reached ~28 AU. Before the discontinuity happened, planetesimals located at ~40 AU were swept into Neptune's 2:1 resonance, and were carried with the migrating resonance outwards. The 2:1 resonance was at ~44 AU when Neptune reached ~28 AU. If Neptune's semimajor axis changed by fraction of AU at this point, perhaps because Neptune was scattered off of another planet, the 2:1 population would have been released at ~44 AU, and would remain there to this day. We show that the orbital distribution of bodies produced in this model provides a good match to the orbital properties of the kernel. If Neptune migration was conveniently slow after the jump, the sweeping 2:1 resonance would deplete the population of bodies at ~45-47 AU, thus contributing to the paucity of the low-inclination orbits in this region. Special provisions, probably related to inefficiencies in the accretional growth of sizable objects, are still needed to explain why only a few low-inclination bodies have been so far detected beyond ~47 AU.

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