arXiv subjects

David Nesvorny

Publications and source records attributed to David Nesvorny.

103 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK): I. Description of a New Observational Project

Two decades ago, empirical evidence concerning the existence and frequency of planets around stars, other than our own, was absent. Since this time, the detection of extrasolar planets from Jupiter-sized to most recently Earth-sized worlds has blossomed and we are finally able to shed light on the plurality of Earth-like, habitable planets in the cosmos. Extrasolar moons may also be frequent habitable worlds but their detection or even systematic pursuit remains lacking in the current literature. Here, we present a description of the first systematic search for extrasolar moons as part of a new observational project called "The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler" (HEK). The HEK project distills the entire list of known transiting planet candidates found by Kepler (2326 at the time of writing) down to the most promising candidates for hosting a moon. Selected targets are fitted using a multimodal nested sampling algorithm coupled with a planet-with-moon light curve modelling routine. By comparing the Bayesian evidence of a planet-only model to that of a planet-with-moon, the detection process is handled in a Bayesian framework. In the case of null detections, upper limits derived from posteriors marginalised over the entire prior volume will be provided to inform the frequency of large moons around viable planetary hosts, eta-moon. After discussing our methodologies for target selection, modelling, fitting and vetting, we provide two example analyses.

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arXiv2011

Dynamics of Dust Particles Released from Oort Cloud Comets and Their Contribution to Radar Meteors

The Oort Cloud Comets (OCCs), exemplified by the Great Comet of 1997 (Hale-Bopp), are occasional visitors from the heatless periphery of the solar system. Previous works hypothesized that a great majority of OCCs must physically disrupt after one or two passages through the inner solar system, where strong thermal gradients can cause phase transitions or volatile pressure buildup. Here we study the fate of small debris particles produced by OCC disruptions to determine whether the imprints of a hypothetical population of OCC meteoroids can be found in the existing meteor radar data. We find that OCC particles with diameters D<10 um are blown out from the solar system by radiation pressure, while those with D>1 um have a very low Earth-impact probability. The intermediate particle sizes, D=100 um, represent a sweet spot. About 1% of these particles orbitally evolve by Poynting-Robertson drag to reach orbits with semimajor axis a=1 AU. They are expected to produce meteors with radiants near the apex of the Earth's orbital motion. We find that the model distributions of their impact speeds and orbits provide a good match to radar observations of apex meteors, except for the eccentricity distribution, which is more skewed toward e=1 in our model. Finally, we propose an explanation for the long-standing problem in meteor science related to the relative strength of apex and helion/antihelion sources. As we show in detail, the observed trend, with the apex meteors being more prominent in observations of highly sensitive radars, can be related to orbital dynamics of particles released on the long-period orbits.

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arXiv2011

Dynamical Model for the Zodiacal Cloud and Sporadic Meteors

The solar system is dusty, and would become dustier over time as asteroids collide and comets disintegrate, except that small debris particles in interplanetary space do not last long. They can be ejected from the solar system by Jupiter, thermally destroyed near the Sun, or physically disrupted by collisions. Also, some are swept by the Earth (and other planets), producing meteors. Here we develop a dynamical model for the solar system meteoroids and use it to explain meteor radar observations. We find that the Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) are the main source of the prominent concentrations of meteors arriving to the Earth from the helion and antihelion directions. To match the radiant and orbit distributions, as measured by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) and Advanced Meteor Orbit Radar (AMOR), our model implies that comets, and JFCs in particular, must frequently disintegrate when reaching orbits with low perihelion distance. Also, the collisional lifetimes of millimeter particles may be longer (>10^5 yr at 1 AU) than postulated in the standard collisional models (10^4 yr at 1 AU), perhaps because these chondrule-sized meteoroids are stronger than thought before. Using observations of the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) to calibrate the model, we find that the total cross section and mass of small meteoroids in the inner solar system are (1.7-3.5)x10^11 km^2 and 4x10^19 g, respectively, in a good agreement with previous studies. The mass input required to keep the Zodiacal Cloud (ZC) in a steady state is estimated to be 10^4-10^5 kg/s. The input is up to 10 times larger than found previously, mainly because particles released closer to the Sun have shorter collisional lifetimes, and need to be supplied at a faster rate.

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arXiv2011

Young Solar System's Fifth Giant Planet?

Recent studies of solar system formation suggest that the solar system's giant planets formed and migrated in the protoplanetary disk to reach resonant orbits with all planets inside 15 AU from the Sun. After the gas disk's dispersal, Uranus and Neptune were likely scattered by gas giants, and approached their current orbits while dispersing the transplanetary disk of planetesimals, whose remains survived to this time in the region known as the Kuiper belt. Here we performed N-body integrations of the scattering phase between giant planets in an attempt to determine which initial states are plausible. We found that the dynamical simulations starting with a resonant system of four giant planets have a low success rate in matching the present orbits of giant planets, and various other constraints (e.g., survival of the terrestrial planets). The dynamical evolution is typically too violent, if Jupiter and Saturn start in the 3:2 resonance, and leads to final systems with fewer than four planets. Several initial states stand out in that they show a relatively large likelihood of success in matching the constraints. Some of the statistically best results were obtained when assuming that the solar system initially had five giant planets and one ice giant, with the mass comparable to that of Uranus and Neptune, was ejected to interstellar space by Jupiter. This possibility appears to be conceivable in view of the recent discovery of a large number free-floating planets in interstellar space, which indicates that planet ejection should be common.

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arXiv2011

Observed Binary Fraction Sets Limits on the Extent of Collisional Grinding in the Kuiper Belt

The size distribution in the cold classical Kuiper belt can be approximated by two idealized power laws: one with steep slope for radii R>R* and one with shallow slope for R<R*, where R*~25-50 km. Previous works suggested that the SFD roll-over at R* can be the result of extensive collisional grinding in the Kuiper belt that led to the catastrophic disruption of most bodies with R<R*. Here we use a new code to test the effect of collisions in the Kuiper belt. We find that the observed roll-over could indeed be explained by collisional grinding provided that the initial mass in large bodies was much larger than the one in the present Kuiper belt, and was dynamically depleted. In addition to the size distribution changes, our code also tracks the effects of collisions on binary systems. We find that it is generally easier to dissolve wide binary systems, such as the ones existing in the cold Kuiper belt today, than to catastrophically disrupt objects with R~R*. Thus, the binary survival sets important limits on the extent of collisional grinding in the Kuiper belt. We find that the extensive collisional grinding required to produce the SFD roll-over at R* would imply a strong gradient of the binary fraction with R and separation, because it is generally easier to dissolve binaries with small components and/or those with wide orbits. The expected binary fraction for R<R* is <0.1. The present observational data do not show such a gradient. Instead, they suggest a large binary fraction of ~0.4 for R=30-40 km. This may indicate that the roll-over was not produced by disruptive collisions, but is instead a fossil remnant of the KBO formation process.

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arXiv2010

Formation of Kuiper Belt Binaries by Gravitational Collapse

A large fraction of 100-km-class low-inclination objects in the classical Kuiper Belt (KB) are binaries with comparable mass and wide separation of components. A favored model for their formation was capture during the coagulation growth of bodies in the early KB. Instead, recent studies suggested that large objects can rapidly form in the protoplanetary disks when swarms of locally concentrated solids collapse under their own gravity. Here we examine the possibility that KB binaries formed during gravitational collapse when the excess of angular momentum prevented the agglomeration of available mass into a solitary object. We find that this new mechanism provides a robust path toward the formation of KB binaries with observed properties, and can explain wide systems such as 2001 QW322 and multiples such as (47171) 1999 TC36. Notably, the gravitational collapse is capable of producing 100% binary fraction for a wide range of the swarm's initial angular momentum values. The binary components have similar masses (80% have the secondary-over-primary radius ratio >0.7) and their separation ranges from ~1,000 to ~100,000 km. The binary orbits have eccentricities from e=0 to ~1, with the majority having e<0.6. The binary orbit inclinations with respect to the initial angular momentum of the swarm range from i=0 to ~90 deg, with most cases having i<50 deg. Our binary formation mechanism implies that the primary and secondary components in each binary pair should have identical bulk composition, which is consistent with the current photometric data. We discuss the applicability of our results to the Pluto-Charon, Orcus-Vanth, (617) Patroclus-Menoetius and (90) Antiope binary systems.

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arXiv2010

Do Planetary Encounters Reset Surfaces of Near Earth Asteroids?

Processes such as the solar wind sputtering and micrometeorite impacts can modify optical properties of surfaces of airless bodies. This explains why spectra of the main belt asteroids, exposed to these `space weathering' processes over eons, do not match the laboratory spectra of ordinary chondrite (OC) meteorites. In contrast, an important fraction of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), defined as Q-types in the asteroid taxonomy, display spectral attributes that are a good match to OCs. Here we study the possibility that the Q-type NEAs underwent recent encounters with the terrestrial planets and that the tidal gravity (or other effects) during these encounters exposed fresh OC material on the surface (thus giving it the Q-type spectral properties). We used numerical integrations to determine the statistics of encounters of NEAs to planets. The results were used to calculate the fraction and orbital distribution of Q-type asteroids expected in the model as a function of the space weathering timescale, t_sw (see main text for definition), and maximum distance, r*, at which planetary encounters can reset the surface. We found that t_sw ~ 1e6 yr (at 1 AU) and r* ~ 5 R_pl, where R_pl is the planetary radius, best fit the data. Values t_sw < 1e5 yr would require that r* > 20 R_pl, which is probably implausible because these very distant encounters should be irrelevant. Also, the fraction of Q-type NEAs would be probably much larger than the one observed if t_sw > 1e7 yr. We found that t_sw ~ q^2, where q is the perihelion distance, expected if the solar wind sputtering controls t_sw, provides a better match to the orbital distribution of Q-type NEAs than models with fixed t_sw. We also discuss how the Earth magnetosphere and radiation effects such as YORP can influence the spectral properties of NEAs.

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arXiv2009

Fast Inversion Method for Determination of Planetary Parameters from Transit Timing Variations

The Transit Timing Variation (TTV) method relies on monitoring changes in timing of transits of known exoplanets. Non-transiting planets in the system can be inferred from TTVs by their gravitational interaction with the transiting planet. The TTV method is sensitive to low-mass planets that cannot be detected by other means. Here we describe a fast algorithm that can be used to determine the mass and orbit of the non-transiting planets from the TTV data. We apply our code, ttvim.f, to a wide variety of planetary systems to test the uniqueness of the TTV inversion problem and its dependence on the precision of TTV observations. We find that planetary parameters, including the mass and mutual orbital inclination of planets, can be determined from the TTV datasets that should become available in near future. Unlike the radial velocity technique, the TTV method can therefore be used to characterize the inclination distribution of multi-planet systems.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2009

Cometary Origin of the Zodiacal Cloud and Carbonaceous Micrometeorites

The zodiacal cloud is a thick circumsolar disk of small debris particles produced by asteroid collisions and comets. Here, we present a zodiacal cloud model based on the orbital properties and lifetimes of comets and asteroids, and on the dynamical evolution of dust after ejection. The model is quantitatively constrained by IRAS observations of thermal emission, but also qualitatively consistent with other zodiacal cloud observations. We find that 85-95% of the observed mid-infrared emission is produced by particles from the Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) and $<$10% by dust from long period comets. Asteroidal dust is found to be present at $<$10%. We suggest that spontaneous disruptions of JFCs, rather than the usual cometary activity driven by sublimating volatiles, is the main mechanism that librates cometary particles into the zodiacal cloud. Our results imply that JFC particles represent $\sim$85% of the total mass influx at Earth. Since their atmospheric entry speeds are typically low ($\approx$14.5 km s$^{-1}$ mean for D=100-200 $μ$m with $\approx$12 km s$^{-1}$ being the most common case), many JFC grains should survive frictional heating and land on the Earth's surface. This explains why most micrometeorites collected in antarctic ice have primitive carbonaceous composition. The present mass of the inner zodiacal cloud at $<$5 AU is estimated to be 1-$2\times10^{19}$ g, mainly in D=100-200 $μ$m particles. The inner zodiacal cloud should have been $>10^4$ times brighter during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) epoch $\approx$3.8 Gyr ago, when the outer planets scattered numerous comets into the inner solar system. The bright debris disks with a large 24-$μ$m excess observed around mature stars may be an indication of massive cometary populations existing in those systems.

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arXiv2009

Asteroids Were Born Big

How big were the first planetesimals? We attempt to answer this question by conducting coagulation simulations in which the planetesimals grow by mutual collisions and form larger bodies and planetary embryos. The size frequency distribution (SFD) of the initial planetesimals is considered a free parameter in these simulations, and we search for the one that produces at the end objects with a SFD that is consistent with asteroid belt constraints. We find that, if the initial planetesimals were small (e.g. km-sized), the final SFD fails to fulfill these constraints. In particular, reproducing the bump observed at diameter D~100km in the current SFD of the asteroids requires that the minimal size of the initial planetesimals was also ~100km. This supports the idea that planetesimals formed big, namely that the size of solids in the proto-planetary disk ``jumped'' from sub-meter scale to multi-kilometer scale, without passing through intermediate values. Moreover, we find evidence that the initial planetesimals had to have sizes ranging from 100 to several 100km, probably even 1,000km, and that their SFD had to have a slope over this interval that was similar to the one characterizing the current asteroids in the same size-range. This result sets a new constraint on planetesimal formation models and opens new perspectives for the investigation of the collisional evolution in the asteroid and Kuiper belts as well as of the accretion of the cores of the giant planets.

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arXiv2009

Considerations on the magnitude distributions of the Kuiper belt and of the Jupiter Trojans

By examining the absolute magnitude (H) distributions (hereafter HD) of the cold and hot populations in the Kuiper belt and of the Trojans of Jupiter, we find evidence that the Trojans have been captured from the outer part of the primordial trans-Neptunian planetesimal disk. We develop a sketch model of the HDs in the inner and outer parts of the disk that is consistent with the observed distributions and with the dynamical evolution scenario known as the `Nice model'. This leads us to predict that the HD of hot population should have the same slope of the HD of the cold population for 6.5 < H < 9, both as steep as the slope of the Trojans' HD. Current data partially support this prediction, but future observations are needed to clarify this issue. Because the HD of the Trojans rolls over at H~9 to a collisional equilibrium slope that should have been acquired when the Trojans were still embedded in the primordial trans-Neptunian disk, our model implies that the same roll-over should characterize the HDs of the Kuiper belt populations, in agreement with the results of Bernstein et al. (2004) and Fuentes and Holman (2008). Finally, we show that the constraint on the total mass of the primordial trans-Neptunian disk imposed by the Nice model implies that it is unlikely that the cold population formed beyond 35 AU.

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arXiv2008

The Distribution of Basaltic Asteroids in the Main Belt

We present the observational results of a survey designed to target and detect asteroids whose colors are similar to those of Vesta family members and thus may be considered as candidates for having a basaltic composition. Fifty basaltic candidates were selected with orbital elements that lie outside of the Vesta dynamical family. Optical and near-infrared spectra were used to assign a taxonomic type to 11 of the 50 candidates. Ten of these were spectroscopically confirmed as V-type asteroids, suggesting that most of the candidates are basaltic and can be used to constrain the distribution of basaltic material in the Main Belt. Using our catalog of V-type candidates and the success rate of the survey, we calculate unbiased size-frequency and semi-major axis distributions of V-type asteroids. These distributions, in addition to an estimate for the total mass of basaltic material, suggest that Vesta was the predominant contributor to the basaltic asteroid inventory of the Main Belt, however scattered planetesimals from the inner Solar System (a < 2.0 AU) and other partially/fully differentiated bodies likely contributed to this inventory. In particular, we infer the presence of basaltic fragments in the vicinity of asteroid 15 Eunomia, which may be derived from a differentiated parent body in the middle Main Belt (2.5 < a < 2.8). We find no asteroidal evidence for a large number of previously undiscovered basaltic asteroids, which agrees with previous theories suggesting that basaltic fragments from the ~100 differentiated parent bodies represented in meteorite collections have been "battered to bits" [Burbine, T.H., Meibom, A., Binzel, R.P., 1996. Mantle material in the Main Belt: Battered to bits? Met. & Planet. Sci. 31, 607].

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arXiv2006

Threat Characterization: Trajectory Dynamics

Given a primary interest in "mitigation of the potential hazard" of near-Earth objects impacting the Earth, the subject of characterization takes on an aspect not normally present when considering asteroids as abstract bodies. Many deflection concepts are interested in the classic geophysical characteristics of asteroids when considering the physical challenge of modifying their orbits in order to cause them to subsequently miss an impact with Earth. Yet for all deflection concepts there are characteristics of the threat which overwhelm these traditional factors. For example, a close gravitational encounter with Earth some years or decades prior to impact can reduce the velocity change necessary for deflection by several orders of magnitude if the deflection precedes the close encounter (or encounters). Conversely this "benefit" comes at a "price"; a corresponding increase in the accuracy of tracking required to determine the probability of impact. Societal issues, both national and international, also characterize the NEO deflection process and these may strongly contend with the purely technical issues normally considered. Therefore critical factors not normally considered must be brought into play as one characterizes the threat of NEO impacts.

physics.space-ph↗