arXiv subjects

David Rohde

Publications and source records attributed to David Rohde.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Confounding is a Pervasive Problem in Real World Recommender Systems

Unobserved confounding arises when an unmeasured feature influences both the treatment and the outcome, leading to biased causal effect estimates. This issue undermines observational studies in fields like economics, medicine, ecology or epidemiology. Recommender systems leveraging fully observed data seem not to be vulnerable to this problem. However many standard practices in recommender systems result in observed features being ignored, resulting in effectively the same problem. This paper will show that numerous common practices such as feature engineering, A/B testing and modularization can in fact introduce confounding into recommendation systems and hamper their performance. Several illustrations of the phenomena are provided, supported by simulation studies with practical suggestions about how practitioners may reduce or avoid the affects of confounding in real systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Exploiting Similarities in A/B Testing with Off-Policy Estimation

We study A/B testing, the standard protocol for measuring the performance gain of a new decision system relative to a baseline. Traditional A/B testing treats both systems as black boxes, ignoring potential similarities between them. In practice, however, new and baseline systems are rarely radically different and often share significant structure, which can be captured by their propensities to make similar decisions. We show that in such cases, the commonly used difference-in-means estimator, though unbiased, is statistically suboptimal. Leveraging off-policy estimation, we introduce a family of A/B testing estimators that exploit the propensities of the tested systems to achieve improved concentration properties. This family is flexible enough to be tailored to practical decision-making. The resulting estimators are simple, robust to propensities misspecification, substantially more accurate when the tested systems exhibit similarities, and gracefully fall back to the difference-in-means estimator when such similarities are absent. Our theoretical analysis and empirical studies confirm their efficiency and practicality.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

A Point Process Model for Optimizing Repeated Personalized Action Delivery to Users

This paper provides a formalism for an important class of causal inference problems inspired by user-advertiser interaction in online advertiser. Then this formalism is specialized to an extension of temporal marked point processes and the neural point processes are suggested as practical solutions to some interesting special cases.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Unified PAC-Bayesian Study of Pessimism for Offline Policy Learning with Regularized Importance Sampling

Off-policy learning (OPL) often involves minimizing a risk estimator based on importance weighting to correct bias from the logging policy used to collect data. However, this method can produce an estimator with a high variance. A common solution is to regularize the importance weights and learn the policy by minimizing an estimator with penalties derived from generalization bounds specific to the estimator. This approach, known as pessimism, has gained recent attention but lacks a unified framework for analysis. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive PAC-Bayesian framework to examine pessimism with regularized importance weighting. We derive a tractable PAC-Bayesian generalization bound that universally applies to common importance weight regularizations, enabling their comparison within a single framework. Our empirical results challenge common understanding, demonstrating the effectiveness of standard IW regularization techniques.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for Large Action Spaces

In interactive systems, actions are often correlated, presenting an opportunity for more sample-efficient off-policy evaluation (OPE) and learning (OPL) in large action spaces. We introduce a unified Bayesian framework to capture these correlations through structured and informative priors. In this framework, we propose sDM, a generic Bayesian approach for OPE and OPL, grounded in both algorithmic and theoretical foundations. Notably, sDM leverages action correlations without compromising computational efficiency. Moreover, inspired by online Bayesian bandits, we introduce Bayesian metrics that assess the average performance of algorithms across multiple problem instances, deviating from the conventional worst-case assessments. We analyze sDM in OPE and OPL, highlighting the benefits of leveraging action correlations. Empirical evidence showcases the strong performance of sDM.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Position Paper: Why the Shooting in the Dark Method Dominates Recommender Systems Practice; A Call to Abandon Anti-Utopian Thinking

Applied recommender systems research is in a curious position. While there is a very rigorous protocol for measuring performance by A/B testing, best practice for finding a `B' to test does not explicitly target performance but rather targets a proxy measure. The success or failure of a given A/B test then depends entirely on if the proposed proxy is better correlated to performance than the previous proxy. No principle exists to identify if one proxy is better than another offline, leaving the practitioners shooting in the dark. The purpose of this position paper is to question this anti-Utopian thinking and argue that a non-standard use of the deep learning stacks actually has the potential to unlock reward optimizing recommendation.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

Fast Slate Policy Optimization: Going Beyond Plackett-Luce

An increasingly important building block of large scale machine learning systems is based on returning slates; an ordered lists of items given a query. Applications of this technology include: search, information retrieval and recommender systems. When the action space is large, decision systems are restricted to a particular structure to complete online queries quickly. This paper addresses the optimization of these large scale decision systems given an arbitrary reward function. We cast this learning problem in a policy optimization framework and propose a new class of policies, born from a novel relaxation of decision functions. This results in a simple, yet efficient learning algorithm that scales to massive action spaces. We compare our method to the commonly adopted Plackett-Luce policy class and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on problems with action space sizes in the order of millions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Exponential Smoothing for Off-Policy Learning

Off-policy learning (OPL) aims at finding improved policies from logged bandit data, often by minimizing the inverse propensity scoring (IPS) estimator of the risk. In this work, we investigate a smooth regularization for IPS, for which we derive a two-sided PAC-Bayes generalization bound. The bound is tractable, scalable, interpretable and provides learning certificates. In particular, it is also valid for standard IPS without making the assumption that the importance weights are bounded. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach and its favorable performance through a set of learning tasks. Since our bound holds for standard IPS, we are able to provide insight into when regularizing IPS is useful. Namely, we identify cases where regularization might not be needed. This goes against the belief that, in practice, clipped IPS often enjoys favorable performance than standard IPS in OPL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning from aggregated data with a maximum entropy model

Aggregating a dataset, then injecting some noise, is a simple and common way to release differentially private data.However, aggregated data -- even without noise -- is not an appropriate input for machine learning classifiers.In this work, we show how a new model, similar to a logistic regression, may be learned from aggregated data only by approximating the unobserved feature distribution with a maximum entropy hypothesis. The resulting model is a Markov Random Field (MRF), and we detail how to apply, modify and scale a MRF training algorithm to our setting. Finally we present empirical evidence on several public datasets that the model learned this way can achieve performances comparable to those of a logistic model trained with the full unaggregated data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Offline Evaluation of Reward-Optimizing Recommender Systems: The Case of Simulation

Both in academic and industry-based research, online evaluation methods are seen as the golden standard for interactive applications like recommendation systems. Naturally, the reason for this is that we can directly measure utility metrics that rely on interventions, being the recommendations that are being shown to users. Nevertheless, online evaluation methods are costly for a number of reasons, and a clear need remains for reliable offline evaluation procedures. In industry, offline metrics are often used as a first-line evaluation to generate promising candidate models to evaluate online. In academic work, limited access to online systems makes offline metrics the de facto approach to validating novel methods. Two classes of offline metrics exist: proxy-based methods, and counterfactual methods. The first class is often poorly correlated with the online metrics we care about, and the latter class only provides theoretical guarantees under assumptions that cannot be fulfilled in real-world environments. Here, we make the case that simulation-based comparisons provide ways forward beyond offline metrics, and argue that they are a preferable means of evaluation.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Probabilistic Rank and Reward: A Scalable Model for Slate Recommendation

We introduce Probabilistic Rank and Reward (PRR), a scalable probabilistic model for personalized slate recommendation. Our approach allows off-policy estimation of the reward in the scenario where the user interacts with at most one item from a slate of K items. We show that the probability of a slate being successful can be learned efficiently by combining the reward, whether the user successfully interacted with the slate, and the rank, the item that was selected within the slate. PRR outperforms existing off-policy reward optimizing methods and is far more scalable to large action spaces. Moreover, PRR allows fast delivery of recommendations powered by maximum inner product search (MIPS), making it suitable in low latency domains such as computational advertising.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Fast Offline Policy Optimization for Large Scale Recommendation

Personalised interactive systems such as recommender systems require selecting relevant items from massive catalogs dependent on context. Reward-driven offline optimisation of these systems can be achieved by a relaxation of the discrete problem resulting in policy learning or REINFORCE style learning algorithms. Unfortunately, this relaxation step requires computing a sum over the entire catalogue making the complexity of the evaluation of the gradient (and hence each stochastic gradient descent iterations) linear in the catalogue size. This calculation is untenable in many real world examples such as large catalogue recommender systems, severely limiting the usefulness of this method in practice. In this paper, we derive an approximation of these policy learning algorithms that scale logarithmically with the catalogue size. Our contribution is based upon combining three novel ideas: a new Monte Carlo estimate of the gradient of a policy, the self normalised importance sampling estimator and the use of fast maximum inner product search at training time. Extensive experiments show that our algorithm is an order of magnitude faster than naive approaches yet produces equally good policies.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Welfare-Optimized Recommender Systems

We present a recommender system based on the Random Utility Model. Online shoppers are modeled as rational decision makers with limited information, and the recommendation task is formulated as the problem of optimally enriching the shopper's awareness set. Notably, the price information and the shopper's Willingness-To-Pay play crucial roles. Furthermore, to better account for the commercial nature of the recommendation, we unify the retailer and shoppers' contradictory objectives into a single welfare metric, which we propose as a new recommendation goal. We test our framework on synthetic data and show its performance in a wide range of scenarios. This new framework, that was absent from the Recommender System literature, opens the door to Welfare-Optimized Recommender Systems, couponing, and price optimization.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2021

Combining Reward and Rank Signals for Slate Recommendation

We consider the problem of slate recommendation, where the recommender system presents a user with a collection or slate composed of K recommended items at once. If the user finds the recommended items appealing then the user may click and the recommender system receives some feedback. Two pieces of information are available to the recommender system: was the slate clicked? (the reward), and if the slate was clicked, which item was clicked? (rank). In this paper, we formulate several Bayesian models that incorporate the reward signal (Reward model), the rank signal (Rank model), or both (Full model), for non-personalized slate recommendation. In our experiments, we analyze performance gains of the Full model and show that it achieves significantly lower error as the number of products in the catalog grows or as the slate size increases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

From Clicks to Conversions: Recommendation for long-term reward

Recommender systems are often optimised for short-term reward: a recommendation is considered successful if a reward (e.g. a click) can be observed immediately after the recommendation. The advantage of this framework is that with some reasonable (although questionable) assumptions, it allows familiar supervised learning tools to be used for the recommendation task. However, it means that long-term business metrics, e.g. sales or retention are ignored. In this paper we introduce a framework for modeling long-term rewards in the RecoGym simulation environment. We use this newly introduced functionality to showcase problems introduced by the last-click attribution scheme in the case of conversion-optimized recommendations and propose a simple extension that leads to state-of-the-art results.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2020

BLOB : A Probabilistic Model for Recommendation that Combines Organic and Bandit Signals

A common task for recommender systems is to build a pro le of the interests of a user from items in their browsing history and later to recommend items to the user from the same catalog. The users' behavior consists of two parts: the sequence of items that they viewed without intervention (the organic part) and the sequences of items recommended to them and their outcome (the bandit part). In this paper, we propose Bayesian Latent Organic Bandit model (BLOB), a probabilistic approach to combine the 'or-ganic' and 'bandit' signals in order to improve the estimation of recommendation quality. The bandit signal is valuable as it gives direct feedback of recommendation performance, but the signal quality is very uneven, as it is highly concentrated on the recommendations deemed optimal by the past version of the recom-mender system. In contrast, the organic signal is typically strong and covers most items, but is not always relevant to the recommendation task. In order to leverage the organic signal to e ciently learn the bandit signal in a Bayesian model we identify three fundamental types of distances, namely action-history, action-action and history-history distances. We implement a scalable approximation of the full model using variational auto-encoders and the local re-paramerization trick. We show using extensive simulation studies that our method out-performs or matches the value of both state-of-the-art organic-based recommendation algorithms, and of bandit-based methods (both value and policy-based) both in organic and bandit-rich environments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Reconsidering Analytical Variational Bounds for Output Layers of Deep Networks

The combination of the re-parameterization trick with the use of variational auto-encoders has caused a sensation in Bayesian deep learning, allowing the training of realistic generative models of images and has considerably increased our ability to use scalable latent variable models. The re-parameterization trick is necessary for models in which no analytical variational bound is available and allows noisy gradients to be computed for arbitrary models. However, for certain standard output layers of a neural network, analytical bounds are available and the variational auto-encoder may be used both without the re-parameterization trick or the need for any Monte Carlo approximation. In this work, we show that using Jaakola and Jordan bound, we can produce a binary classification layer that allows a Bayesian output layer to be trained, using the standard stochastic gradient descent algorithm. We further demonstrate that a latent variable model utilizing the Bouchard bound for multi-class classification allows for fast training of a fully probabilistic latent factor model, even when the number of classes is very large.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Causal inference with Bayes rule

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been hotly debated, In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explicitly model our assumptions on the impact of intervening in a system, provided we do so, estimating causal effects can be done entirely within the standard Bayesian paradigm. The invariance assumptions underlying causal graphical models can be encoded in ordinary Probabilistic graphical models, allowing causal estimation with Bayesian statistics, equivalent to the do-calculus.

stat.ML↗