arXiv subjects

David Sontag

Publications and source records attributed to David Sontag.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Sample Efficient Learning of Predictors that Complement Humans

One of the goals of learning algorithms is to complement and reduce the burden on human decision makers. The expert deferral setting wherein an algorithm can either predict on its own or defer the decision to a downstream expert helps accomplish this goal. A fundamental aspect of this setting is the need to learn complementary predictors that improve on the human's weaknesses rather than learning predictors optimized for average error. In this work, we provide the first theoretical analysis of the benefit of learning complementary predictors in expert deferral. To enable efficiently learning such predictors, we consider a family of consistent surrogate loss functions for expert deferral and analyze their theoretical properties. Finally, we design active learning schemes that require minimal amount of data of human expert predictions in order to learn accurate deferral systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Using Time-Series Privileged Information for Provably Efficient Learning of Prediction Models

We study prediction of future outcomes with supervised models that use privileged information during learning. The privileged information comprises samples of time series observed between the baseline time of prediction and the future outcome; this information is only available at training time which differs from the traditional supervised learning. Our question is when using this privileged data leads to more sample-efficient learning of models that use only baseline data for predictions at test time. We give an algorithm for this setting and prove that when the time series are drawn from a non-stationary Gaussian-linear dynamical system of fixed horizon, learning with privileged information is more efficient than learning without it. On synthetic data, we test the limits of our algorithm and theory, both when our assumptions hold and when they are violated. On three diverse real-world datasets, we show that our approach is generally preferable to classical learning, particularly when data is scarce. Finally, we relate our estimator to a distillation approach both theoretically and empirically.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Leveraging Time Irreversibility with Order-Contrastive Pre-training

Label-scarce, high-dimensional domains such as healthcare present a challenge for modern machine learning techniques. To overcome the difficulties posed by a lack of labeled data, we explore an "order-contrastive" method for self-supervised pre-training on longitudinal data. We sample pairs of time segments, switch the order for half of them, and train a model to predict whether a given pair is in the correct order. Intuitively, the ordering task allows the model to attend to the least time-reversible features (for example, features that indicate progression of a chronic disease). The same features are often useful for downstream tasks of interest. To quantify this, we study a simple theoretical setting where we prove a finite-sample guarantee for the downstream error of a representation learned with order-contrastive pre-training. Empirically, in synthetic and longitudinal healthcare settings, we demonstrate the effectiveness of order-contrastive pre-training in the small-data regime over supervised learning and other self-supervised pre-training baselines. Our results indicate that pre-training methods designed for particular classes of distributions and downstream tasks can improve the performance of self-supervised learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Co-training Improves Prompt-based Learning for Large Language Models

We demonstrate that co-training (Blum & Mitchell, 1998) can improve the performance of prompt-based learning by using unlabeled data. While prompting has emerged as a promising paradigm for few-shot and zero-shot learning, it is often brittle and requires much larger models compared to the standard supervised setup. We find that co-training makes it possible to improve the original prompt model and at the same time learn a smaller, downstream task-specific model. In the case where we only have partial access to a prompt model (e.g., output probabilities from GPT-3 (Brown et al., 2020)) we learn a calibration model over the prompt outputs. When we have full access to the prompt model's gradients but full finetuning remains prohibitively expensive (e.g., T0 (Sanh et al., 2021)), we learn a set of soft prompt continuous vectors to iteratively update the prompt model. We find that models trained in this manner can significantly improve performance on challenging datasets where there is currently a large gap between prompt-based learning and fully-supervised models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Teaching Humans When To Defer to a Classifier via Exemplars

Expert decision makers are starting to rely on data-driven automated agents to assist them with various tasks. For this collaboration to perform properly, the human decision maker must have a mental model of when and when not to rely on the agent. In this work, we aim to ensure that human decision makers learn a valid mental model of the agent's strengths and weaknesses. To accomplish this goal, we propose an exemplar-based teaching strategy where humans solve the task with the help of the agent and try to formulate a set of guidelines of when and when not to defer. We present a novel parameterization of the human's mental model of the AI that applies a nearest neighbor rule in local regions surrounding the teaching examples. Using this model, we derive a near-optimal strategy for selecting a representative teaching set. We validate the benefits of our teaching strategy on a multi-hop question answering task using crowd workers and find that when workers draw the right lessons from the teaching stage, their task performance improves, we furthermore validate our method on a set of synthetic experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Clustering Interval-Censored Time-Series for Disease Phenotyping

Unsupervised learning is often used to uncover clusters in data. However, different kinds of noise may impede the discovery of useful patterns from real-world time-series data. In this work, we focus on mitigating the interference of interval censoring in the task of clustering for disease phenotyping. We develop a deep generative, continuous-time model of time-series data that clusters time-series while correcting for censorship time. We provide conditions under which clusters and the amount of delayed entry may be identified from data under a noiseless model. On synthetic data, we demonstrate accurate, stable, and interpretable results that outperform several benchmarks. On real-world clinical datasets of heart failure and Parkinson's disease patients, we study how interval censoring can adversely affect the task of disease phenotyping. Our model corrects for this source of error and recovers known clinical subtypes.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Finding Regions of Heterogeneity in Decision-Making via Expected Conditional Covariance

Individuals often make different decisions when faced with the same context, due to personal preferences and background. For instance, judges may vary in their leniency towards certain drug-related offenses, and doctors may vary in their preference for how to start treatment for certain types of patients. With these examples in mind, we present an algorithm for identifying types of contexts (e.g., types of cases or patients) with high inter-decision-maker disagreement. We formalize this as a causal inference problem, seeking a region where the assignment of decision-maker has a large causal effect on the decision. Our algorithm finds such a region by maximizing an empirical objective, and we give a generalization bound for its performance. In a semi-synthetic experiment, we show that our algorithm recovers the correct region of heterogeneity accurately compared to baselines. Finally, we apply our algorithm to real-world healthcare datasets, recovering variation that aligns with existing clinical knowledge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

MedKnowts: Unified Documentation and Information Retrieval for Electronic Health Records

Clinical documentation can be transformed by Electronic Health Records, yet the documentation process is still a tedious, time-consuming, and error-prone process. Clinicians are faced with multi-faceted requirements and fragmented interfaces for information exploration and documentation. These challenges are only exacerbated in the Emergency Department -- clinicians often see 35 patients in one shift, during which they have to synthesize an often previously unknown patient's medical records in order to reach a tailored diagnosis and treatment plan. To better support this information synthesis, clinical documentation tools must enable rapid contextual access to the patient's medical record. MedKnowts is an integrated note-taking editor and information retrieval system which unifies the documentation and search process and provides concise synthesized concept-oriented slices of the patient's medical record. MedKnowts automatically captures structured data while still allowing users the flexibility of natural language. MedKnowts leverages this structure to enable easier parsing of long notes, auto-populated text, and proactive information retrieval, easing the documentation burden.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Pulse of the Pandemic: Iterative Topic Filtering for Clinical Information Extraction from Social Media

The rapid evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to quickly disseminate the latest clinical knowledge during a public-health emergency. One surprisingly effective platform for healthcare professionals (HCPs) to share knowledge and experiences from the front lines has been social media (for example, the "#medtwitter" community on Twitter). However, identifying clinically-relevant content in social media without manual labeling is a challenge because of the sheer volume of irrelevant data. We present an unsupervised, iterative approach to mine clinically relevant information from social media data, which begins by heuristically filtering for HCP-authored texts and incorporates topic modeling and concept extraction with MetaMap. This approach identifies granular topics and tweets with high clinical relevance from a set of about 52 million COVID-19-related tweets from January to mid-June 2020. We also show that because the technique does not require manual labeling, it can be used to identify emerging topics on a week-to-week basis. Our method can aid in future public-health emergencies by facilitating knowledge transfer among healthcare workers in a rapidly-changing information environment, and by providing an efficient and unsupervised way of highlighting potential areas for clinical research.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Regularizing towards Causal Invariance: Linear Models with Proxies

We propose a method for learning linear models whose predictive performance is robust to causal interventions on unobserved variables, when noisy proxies of those variables are available. Our approach takes the form of a regularization term that trades off between in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions. Under the assumption of a linear structural causal model, we show that a single proxy can be used to create estimators that are prediction optimal under interventions of bounded strength. This strength depends on the magnitude of the measurement noise in the proxy, which is, in general, not identifiable. In the case of two proxy variables, we propose a modified estimator that is prediction optimal under interventions up to a known strength. We further show how to extend these estimators to scenarios where additional information about the "test time" intervention is available during training. We evaluate our theoretical findings in synthetic experiments and using real data of hourly pollution levels across several cities in China.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Neural Pharmacodynamic State Space Modeling

Modeling the time-series of high-dimensional, longitudinal data is important for predicting patient disease progression. However, existing neural network based approaches that learn representations of patient state, while very flexible, are susceptible to overfitting. We propose a deep generative model that makes use of a novel attention-based neural architecture inspired by the physics of how treatments affect disease state. The result is a scalable and accurate model of high-dimensional patient biomarkers as they vary over time. Our proposed model yields significant improvements in generalization and, on real-world clinical data, provides interpretable insights into the dynamics of cancer progression.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Graph cuts always find a global optimum for Potts models (with a catch)

We prove that the $α$-expansion algorithm for MAP inference always returns a globally optimal assignment for Markov Random Fields with Potts pairwise potentials, with a catch: the returned assignment is only guaranteed to be optimal for an instance within a small perturbation of the original problem instance. In other words, all local minima with respect to expansion moves are global minima to slightly perturbed versions of the problem. On "real-world" instances, MAP assignments of small perturbations of the problem should be very similar to the MAP assignment(s) of the original problem instance. We design an algorithm that can certify whether this is the case in practice. On several MAP inference problem instances from computer vision, this algorithm certifies that MAP solutions to all of these perturbations are very close to solutions of the original instance. These results taken together give a cohesive explanation for the good performance of "graph cuts" algorithms in practice. Every local expansion minimum is a global minimum in a small perturbation of the problem, and all of these global minima are close to the original solution.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

CLIP: A Dataset for Extracting Action Items for Physicians from Hospital Discharge Notes

Continuity of care is crucial to ensuring positive health outcomes for patients discharged from an inpatient hospital setting, and improved information sharing can help. To share information, caregivers write discharge notes containing action items to share with patients and their future caregivers, but these action items are easily lost due to the lengthiness of the documents. In this work, we describe our creation of a dataset of clinical action items annotated over MIMIC-III, the largest publicly available dataset of real clinical notes. This dataset, which we call CLIP, is annotated by physicians and covers 718 documents representing 100K sentences. We describe the task of extracting the action items from these documents as multi-aspect extractive summarization, with each aspect representing a type of action to be taken. We evaluate several machine learning models on this task, and show that the best models exploit in-domain language model pre-training on 59K unannotated documents, and incorporate context from neighboring sentences. We also propose an approach to pre-training data selection that allows us to explore the trade-off between size and domain-specificity of pre-training datasets for this task.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2021

Assessing the Impact of Automated Suggestions on Decision Making: Domain Experts Mediate Model Errors but Take Less Initiative

Automated decision support can accelerate tedious tasks as users can focus their attention where it is needed most. However, a key concern is whether users overly trust or cede agency to automation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of introducing automation to annotating clinical texts--a multi-step, error-prone task of identifying clinical concepts (e.g., procedures) in medical notes, and mapping them to labels in a large ontology. We consider two forms of decision aid: recommending which labels to map concepts to, and pre-populating annotation suggestions. Through laboratory studies, we find that 18 clinicians generally build intuition of when to rely on automation and when to exercise their own judgement. However, when presented with fully pre-populated suggestions, these expert users exhibit less agency: accepting improper mentions, and taking less initiative in creating additional annotations. Our findings inform how systems and algorithms should be designed to mitigate the observed issues.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

Beyond Perturbation Stability: LP Recovery Guarantees for MAP Inference on Noisy Stable Instances

Several works have shown that perturbation stable instances of the MAP inference problem in Potts models can be solved exactly using a natural linear programming (LP) relaxation. However, most of these works give few (or no) guarantees for the LP solutions on instances that do not satisfy the relatively strict perturbation stability definitions. In this work, we go beyond these stability results by showing that the LP approximately recovers the MAP solution of a stable instance even after the instance is corrupted by noise. This "noisy stable" model realistically fits with practical MAP inference problems: we design an algorithm for finding "close" stable instances, and show that several real-world instances from computer vision have nearby instances that are perturbation stable. These results suggest a new theoretical explanation for the excellent performance of this LP relaxation in practice.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Consistent Estimators for Learning to Defer to an Expert

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Trajectory Inspection: A Method for Iterative Clinician-Driven Design of Reinforcement Learning Studies

Reinforcement learning (RL) has the potential to significantly improve clinical decision making. However, treatment policies learned via RL from observational data are sensitive to subtle choices in study design. We highlight a simple approach, trajectory inspection, to bring clinicians into an iterative design process for model-based RL studies. We identify where the model recommends unexpectedly aggressive treatments or expects surprisingly positive outcomes from its recommendations. Then, we examine clinical trajectories simulated with the learned model and policy alongside the actual hospital course. Applying this approach to recent work on RL for sepsis management, we uncover a model bias towards discharge, a preference for high vasopressor doses that may be linked to small sample sizes, and clinically implausible expectations of discharge without weaning off vasopressors. We hope that iterations of detecting and addressing the issues unearthed by our method will result in RL policies that inspire more confidence in deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Deep Contextual Clinical Prediction with Reverse Distillation

Healthcare providers are increasingly using machine learning to predict patient outcomes to make meaningful interventions. However, despite innovations in this area, deep learning models often struggle to match performance of shallow linear models in predicting these outcomes, making it difficult to leverage such techniques in practice. In this work, motivated by the task of clinical prediction from insurance claims, we present a new technique called Reverse Distillation which pretrains deep models by using high-performing linear models for initialization. We make use of the longitudinal structure of insurance claims datasets to develop Self Attention with Reverse Distillation, or SARD, an architecture that utilizes a combination of contextual embedding, temporal embedding and self-attention mechanisms and most critically is trained via reverse distillation. SARD outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple clinical prediction outcomes, with ablation studies revealing that reverse distillation is a primary driver of these improvements. Code is available at https://github.com/clinicalml/omop-learn.

cs.LG↗