arXiv subjects

David Sontag

Publications and source records attributed to David Sontag.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Block Stability for MAP Inference

To understand the empirical success of approximate MAP inference, recent work (Lang et al., 2018) has shown that some popular approximation algorithms perform very well when the input instance is stable. The simplest stability condition assumes that the MAP solution does not change at all when some of the pairwise potentials are (adversarially) perturbed. Unfortunately, this strong condition does not seem to be satisfied in practice. In this paper, we introduce a significantly more relaxed condition that only requires blocks (portions) of an input instance to be stable. Under this block stability condition, we prove that the pairwise LP relaxation is persistent on the stable blocks. We complement our theoretical results with an empirical evaluation of real-world MAP inference instances from computer vision. We design an algorithm to find stable blocks, and find that these real instances have large stable regions. Our work gives a theoretical explanation for the widespread empirical phenomenon of persistency for this LP relaxation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Treatment Policy Learning in Multiobjective Settings with Fully Observed Outcomes

In several medical decision-making problems, such as antibiotic prescription, laboratory testing can provide precise indications for how a patient will respond to different treatment options. This enables us to "fully observe" all potential treatment outcomes, but while present in historical data, these results are infeasible to produce in real-time at the point of the initial treatment decision. Moreover, treatment policies in these settings often need to trade off between multiple competing objectives, such as effectiveness of treatment and harmful side effects. We present, compare, and evaluate three approaches for learning individualized treatment policies in this setting: First, we consider two indirect approaches, which use predictive models of treatment response to construct policies optimal for different trade-offs between objectives. Second, we consider a direct approach that constructs such a set of policies without intermediate models of outcomes. Using a medical dataset of Urinary Tract Infection (UTI) patients, we show that all approaches learn policies that achieve strictly better performance on all outcomes than clinicians, while also trading off between different objectives. We demonstrate additional benefits of the direct approach, including flexibly incorporating other goals such as deferral to physicians on simple cases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Estimation of Bounds on Potential Outcomes For Decision Making

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of upper and lower bounds on the potential outcomes of decision alternatives to assess risks and benefits. We show that, in such cases, we can improve sample efficiency by estimating simple functions that bound these outcomes instead of estimating their conditional expectations, which may be complex and hard to estimate. Our analysis highlights a trade-off between the complexity of the learning task and the confidence with which the learned bounds hold. Guided by these findings, we develop an algorithm for learning upper and lower bounds on potential outcomes which optimize an objective function defined by the decision maker, subject to the probability that bounds are violated being small. Using a clinical dataset and a well-known causality benchmark, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms baselines, providing tighter, more reliable bounds.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Knowledge Base Completion for Constructing Problem-Oriented Medical Records

Both electronic health records and personal health records are typically organized by data type, with medical problems, medications, procedures, and laboratory results chronologically sorted in separate areas of the chart. As a result, it can be difficult to find all of the relevant information for answering a clinical question about a given medical problem. A promising alternative is to instead organize by problems, with related medications, procedures, and other pertinent information all grouped together. A recent effort by Buchanan (2017) manually defined, through expert consensus, 11 medical problems and the relevant labs and medications for each. We show how to use machine learning on electronic health records to instead automatically construct these problem-based groupings of relevant medications, procedures, and laboratory tests. We formulate the learning task as one of knowledge base completion, and annotate a dataset that expands the set of problems from 11 to 32. We develop a model architecture that exploits both pre-trained concept embeddings and usage data relating the concepts contained in a longitudinal dataset from a large health system. We evaluate our algorithms' ability to suggest relevant medications, procedures, and lab tests, and find that the approach provides feasible suggestions even for problems that are hidden during training. The dataset, along with code to reproduce our results, is available at https://github.com/asappresearch/kbc-pomr.

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arXiv2020

Robust Benchmarking for Machine Learning of Clinical Entity Extraction

Clinical studies often require understanding elements of a patient's narrative that exist only in free text clinical notes. To transform notes into structured data for downstream use, these elements are commonly extracted and normalized to medical vocabularies. In this work, we audit the performance of and indicate areas of improvement for state-of-the-art systems. We find that high task accuracies for clinical entity normalization systems on the 2019 n2c2 Shared Task are misleading, and underlying performance is still brittle. Normalization accuracy is high for common concepts (95.3%), but much lower for concepts unseen in training data (69.3%). We demonstrate that current approaches are hindered in part by inconsistencies in medical vocabularies, limitations of existing labeling schemas, and narrow evaluation techniques. We reformulate the annotation framework for clinical entity extraction to factor in these issues to allow for robust end-to-end system benchmarking. We evaluate concordance of annotations from our new framework between two annotators and achieve a Jaccard similarity of 0.73 for entity recognition and an agreement of 0.83 for entity normalization. We propose a path forward to address the demonstrated need for the creation of a reference standard to spur method development in entity recognition and normalization.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Fast, Structured Clinical Documentation via Contextual Autocomplete

We present a system that uses a learned autocompletion mechanism to facilitate rapid creation of semi-structured clinical documentation. We dynamically suggest relevant clinical concepts as a doctor drafts a note by leveraging features from both unstructured and structured medical data. By constraining our architecture to shallow neural networks, we are able to make these suggestions in real time. Furthermore, as our algorithm is used to write a note, we can automatically annotate the documentation with clean labels of clinical concepts drawn from medical vocabularies, making notes more structured and readable for physicians, patients, and future algorithms. To our knowledge, this system is the only machine learning-based documentation utility for clinical notes deployed in a live hospital setting, and it reduces keystroke burden of clinical concepts by 67% in real environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Empirical Study of the Benefits of Overparameterization in Learning Latent Variable Models

One of the most surprising and exciting discoveries in supervised learning was the benefit of overparameterization (i.e. training a very large model) to improving the optimization landscape of a problem, with minimal effect on statistical performance (i.e. generalization). In contrast, unsupervised settings have been under-explored, despite the fact that it was observed that overparameterization can be helpful as early as Dasgupta & Schulman (2007). We perform an empirical study of different aspects of overparameterization in unsupervised learning of latent variable models via synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments. We discuss benefits to different metrics of success (recovering the parameters of the ground-truth model, held-out log-likelihood), sensitivity to variations of the training algorithm, and behavior as the amount of overparameterization increases. We find that across a variety of models (noisy-OR networks, sparse coding, probabilistic context-free grammars) and training algorithms (variational inference, alternating minimization, expectation-maximization), overparameterization can significantly increase the number of ground truth latent variables recovered.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Characterization of Overlap in Observational Studies

Overlap between treatment groups is required for non-parametric estimation of causal effects. If a subgroup of subjects always receives the same intervention, we cannot estimate the effect of intervention changes on that subgroup without further assumptions. When overlap does not hold globally, characterizing local regions of overlap can inform the relevance of causal conclusions for new subjects, and can help guide additional data collection. To have impact, these descriptions must be interpretable for downstream users who are not machine learning experts, such as policy makers. We formalize overlap estimation as a problem of finding minimum volume sets subject to coverage constraints and reduce this problem to binary classification with Boolean rule classifiers. We then generalize this method to estimate overlap in off-policy policy evaluation. In several real-world applications, we demonstrate that these rules have comparable accuracy to black-box estimators and provide intuitive and informative explanations that can inform policy making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Open Set Medical Diagnosis

Machine-learned diagnosis models have shown promise as medical aides but are trained under a closed-set assumption, i.e. that models will only encounter conditions on which they have been trained. However, it is practically infeasible to obtain sufficient training data for every human condition, and once deployed such models will invariably face previously unseen conditions. We frame machine-learned diagnosis as an open-set learning problem, and study how state-of-the-art approaches compare. Further, we extend our study to a setting where training data is distributed across several healthcare sites that do not allow data pooling, and experiment with different strategies of building open-set diagnostic ensembles. Across both settings, we observe consistent gains from explicitly modeling unseen conditions, but find the optimal training strategy to vary across settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Robustly Extracting Medical Knowledge from EHRs: A Case Study of Learning a Health Knowledge Graph

Increasingly large electronic health records (EHRs) provide an opportunity to algorithmically learn medical knowledge. In one prominent example, a causal health knowledge graph could learn relationships between diseases and symptoms and then serve as a diagnostic tool to be refined with additional clinical input. Prior research has demonstrated the ability to construct such a graph from over 270,000 emergency department patient visits. In this work, we describe methods to evaluate a health knowledge graph for robustness. Moving beyond precision and recall, we analyze for which diseases and for which patients the graph is most accurate. We identify sample size and unmeasured confounders as major sources of error in the health knowledge graph. We introduce a method to leverage non-linear functions in building the causal graph to better understand existing model assumptions. Finally, to assess model generalizability, we extend to a larger set of complete patient visits within a hospital system. We conclude with a discussion on how to robustly extract medical knowledge from EHRs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Support and Invertibility in Domain-Invariant Representations

Learning domain-invariant representations has become a popular approach to unsupervised domain adaptation and is often justified by invoking a particular suite of theoretical results. We argue that there are two significant flaws in such arguments. First, the results in question hold only for a fixed representation and do not account for information lost in non-invertible transformations. Second, domain invariance is often a far too strict requirement and does not always lead to consistent estimation, even under strong and favorable assumptions. In this work, we give generalization bounds for unsupervised domain adaptation that hold for any representation function by acknowledging the cost of non-invertibility. In addition, we show that penalizing distance between densities is often wasteful and propose a bound based on measuring the extent to which the support of the source domain covers the target domain. We perform experiments on well-known benchmarks that illustrate the short-comings of current standard practice.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Counterfactual Off-Policy Evaluation with Gumbel-Max Structural Causal Models

We introduce an off-policy evaluation procedure for highlighting episodes where applying a reinforcement learned (RL) policy is likely to have produced a substantially different outcome than the observed policy. In particular, we introduce a class of structural causal models (SCMs) for generating counterfactual trajectories in finite partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). We see this as a useful procedure for off-policy "debugging" in high-risk settings (e.g., healthcare); by decomposing the expected difference in reward between the RL and observed policy into specific episodes, we can identify episodes where the counterfactual difference in reward is most dramatic. This in turn can be used to facilitate review of specific episodes by domain experts. We demonstrate the utility of this procedure with a synthetic environment of sepsis management.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Overcomplete Independent Component Analysis via SDP

We present a novel algorithm for overcomplete independent components analysis (ICA), where the number of latent sources k exceeds the dimension p of observed variables. Previous algorithms either suffer from high computational complexity or make strong assumptions about the form of the mixing matrix. Our algorithm does not make any sparsity assumption yet enjoys favorable computational and theoretical properties. Our algorithm consists of two main steps: (a) estimation of the Hessians of the cumulant generating function (as opposed to the fourth and higher order cumulants used by most algorithms) and (b) a novel semi-definite programming (SDP) relaxation for recovering a mixing component. We show that this relaxation can be efficiently solved with a projected accelerated gradient descent method, which makes the whole algorithm computationally practical. Moreover, we conjecture that the proposed program recovers a mixing component at the rate k < p^2/4 and prove that a mixing component can be recovered with high probability when k < (2 - epsilon) p log p when the original components are sampled uniformly at random on the hyper sphere. Experiments are provided on synthetic data and the CIFAR-10 dataset of real images.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Why Is My Classifier Discriminatory?

Recent attempts to achieve fairness in predictive models focus on the balance between fairness and accuracy. In sensitive applications such as healthcare or criminal justice, this trade-off is often undesirable as any increase in prediction error could have devastating consequences. In this work, we argue that the fairness of predictions should be evaluated in context of the data, and that unfairness induced by inadequate samples sizes or unmeasured predictive variables should be addressed through data collection, rather than by constraining the model. We decompose cost-based metrics of discrimination into bias, variance, and noise, and propose actions aimed at estimating and reducing each term. Finally, we perform case-studies on prediction of income, mortality, and review ratings, confirming the value of this analysis. We find that data collection is often a means to reduce discrimination without sacrificing accuracy.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Prototypical Clustering Networks for Dermatological Disease Diagnosis

We consider the problem of image classification for the purpose of aiding doctors in dermatological diagnosis. Dermatological diagnosis poses two major challenges for standard off-the-shelf techniques: First, the data distribution is typically extremely long tailed. Second, intra-class variability is often large. To address the first issue, we formulate the problem as low-shot learning, where once deployed, a base classifier must rapidly generalize to diagnose novel conditions given very few labeled examples. To model diverse classes effectively, we propose Prototypical Clustering Networks (PCN), an extension to Prototypical Networks that learns a mixture of prototypes for each class. Prototypes are initialized for each class via clustering and refined via an online update scheme. Classification is performed by measuring similarity to a weighted combination of prototypes within a class, where the weights are the inferred cluster responsibilities. We demonstrate the strengths of our approach in effective diagnosis on a realistic dataset of dermatological conditions.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2018

Semi-Amortized Variational Autoencoders

Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical work suggests that inference networks can produce suboptimal variational parameters. We propose a hybrid approach, to use AVI to initialize the variational parameters and run stochastic variational inference (SVI) to refine them. Crucially, the local SVI procedure is itself differentiable, so the inference network and generative model can be trained end-to-end with gradient-based optimization. This semi-amortized approach enables the use of rich generative models without experiencing the posterior-collapse phenomenon common in training VAEs for problems like text generation. Experiments show this approach outperforms strong autoregressive and variational baselines on standard text and image datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?". We propose a new algorithmic framework for counterfactual inference which brings together ideas from domain adaptation and representation learning. In addition to a theoretical justification, we perform an empirical comparison with previous approaches to causal inference from observational data. Our deep learning algorithm significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Evaluating Reinforcement Learning Algorithms in Observational Health Settings

Much attention has been devoted recently to the development of machine learning algorithms with the goal of improving treatment policies in healthcare. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a sub-field within machine learning that is concerned with learning how to make sequences of decisions so as to optimize long-term effects. Already, RL algorithms have been proposed to identify decision-making strategies for mechanical ventilation, sepsis management and treatment of schizophrenia. However, before implementing treatment policies learned by black-box algorithms in high-stakes clinical decision problems, special care must be taken in the evaluation of these policies. In this document, our goal is to expose some of the subtleties associated with evaluating RL algorithms in healthcare. We aim to provide a conceptual starting point for clinical and computational researchers to ask the right questions when designing and evaluating algorithms for new ways of treating patients. In the following, we describe how choices about how to summarize a history, variance of statistical estimators, and confounders in more ad-hoc measures can result in unreliable, even misleading estimates of the quality of a treatment policy. We also provide suggestions for mitigating these effects---for while there is much promise for mining observational health data to uncover better treatment policies, evaluation must be performed thoughtfully.

cs.LG↗