arXiv subjects

Denis Chetverikov

Publications and source records attributed to Denis Chetverikov.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Inference on causal and structural parameters using many moment inequalities

This paper considers the problem of testing many moment inequalities where the number of moment inequalities, denoted by $p$, is possibly much larger than the sample size $n$. There is a variety of economic applications where solving this problem allows to carry out inference on causal and structural parameters, a notable example is the market structure model of Ciliberto and Tamer (2009) where $p=2^{m+1}$ with $m$ being the number of firms that could possibly enter the market. We consider the test statistic given by the maximum of $p$ Studentized (or $t$-type) inequality-specific statistics, and analyze various ways to compute critical values for the test statistic. Specifically, we consider critical values based upon (i) the union bound combined with a moderate deviation inequality for self-normalized sums, (ii) the multiplier and empirical bootstraps, and (iii) two-step and three-step variants of (i) and (ii) by incorporating the selection of uninformative inequalities that are far from being binding and a novel selection of weakly informative inequalities that are potentially binding but do not provide first order information. We prove validity of these methods, showing that under mild conditions, they lead to tests with the error in size decreasing polynomially in $n$ while allowing for $p$ being much larger than $n$, indeed $p$ can be of order $\exp (n^{c})$ for some $c > 0$. Importantly, all these results hold without any restriction on the correlation structure between $p$ Studentized statistics, and also hold uniformly with respect to suitably large classes of underlying distributions. Moreover, in the online supplement, we show validity of a test based on the block multiplier bootstrap in the case of dependent data under some general mixing conditions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Conditional Quantile Processes based on Series or Many Regressors

Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric QR-series framework, covering many regressors as a special case, for performing inference on the entire conditional quantile function and its linear functionals. In this framework, we approximate the entire conditional quantile function by a linear combination of series terms with quantile-specific coefficients and estimate the function-valued coefficients from the data. We develop large sample theory for the QR-series coefficient process, namely we obtain uniform strong approximations to the QR-series coefficient process by conditionally pivotal and Gaussian processes. Based on these strong approximations, or couplings, we develop four resampling methods (pivotal, gradient bootstrap, Gaussian, and weighted bootstrap) that can be used for inference on the entire QR-series coefficient function. We apply these results to obtain estimation and inference methods for linear functionals of the conditional quantile function, such as the conditional quantile function itself, its partial derivatives, average partial derivatives, and conditional average partial derivatives. Specifically, we obtain uniform rates of convergence and show how to use the four resampling methods mentioned above for inference on the functionals. All of the above results are for function-valued parameters, holding uniformly in both the quantile index and the covariate value, and covering the pointwise case as a by-product. We demonstrate the practical utility of these results with an example, where we estimate the price elasticity function and test the Slutsky condition of the individual demand for gasoline, as indexed by the individual unobserved propensity for gasoline consumption.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

High-Dimensional Econometrics and Regularized GMM

This chapter presents key concepts and theoretical results for analyzing estimation and inference in high-dimensional models. High-dimensional models are characterized by having a number of unknown parameters that is not vanishingly small relative to the sample size. We first present results in a framework where estimators of parameters of interest may be represented directly as approximate means. Within this context, we review fundamental results including high-dimensional central limit theorems, bootstrap approximation of high-dimensional limit distributions, and moderate deviation theory. We also review key concepts underlying inference when many parameters are of interest such as multiple testing with family-wise error rate or false discovery rate control. We then turn to a general high-dimensional minimum distance framework with a special focus on generalized method of moments problems where we present results for estimation and inference about model parameters. The presented results cover a wide array of econometric applications, and we discuss several leading special cases including high-dimensional linear regression and linear instrumental variables models to illustrate the general results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors

We derive a Gaussian approximation result for the maximum of a sum of high-dimensional random vectors. Specifically, we establish conditions under which the distribution of the maximum is approximated by that of the maximum of a sum of the Gaussian random vectors with the same covariance matrices as the original vectors. This result applies when the dimension of random vectors ($p$) is large compared to the sample size ($n$); in fact, $p$ can be much larger than $n$, without restricting correlations of the coordinates of these vectors. We also show that the distribution of the maximum of a sum of the random vectors with unknown covariance matrices can be consistently estimated by the distribution of the maximum of a sum of the conditional Gaussian random vectors obtained by multiplying the original vectors with i.i.d. Gaussian multipliers. This is the Gaussian multiplier (or wild) bootstrap procedure. Here too, $p$ can be large or even much larger than $n$. These distributional approximations, either Gaussian or conditional Gaussian, yield a high-quality approximation to the distribution of the original maximum, often with approximation error decreasing polynomially in the sample size, and hence are of interest in many applications. We demonstrate how our Gaussian approximations and the multiplier bootstrap can be used for modern high-dimensional estimation, multiple hypothesis testing, and adaptive specification testing. All these results contain nonasymptotic bounds on approximation errors.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Detailed proof of Nazarov's inequality

The purpose of this note is to provide a detailed proof of Nazarov's inequality stated in Lemma A.1 in Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, and Kato (2017, Annals of Probability).

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Double/Debiased/Neyman Machine Learning of Treatment Effects

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and cross-fitting, in settings where nuisance parameters are estimated using a new generation of nonparametric fitting methods for high-dimensional data, called machine learning methods. In this note, we illustrate the application of this method in the context of estimating average treatment effects (ATE) and average treatment effects on the treated (ATTE) using observational data. A more general discussion and references to the existing literature are available in Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016).

stat.ML↗

arXiv2016

Central Limit Theorems and Bootstrap in High Dimensions

This paper derives central limit and bootstrap theorems for probabilities that sums of centered high-dimensional random vectors hit hyperrectangles and sparsely convex sets. Specifically, we derive Gaussian and bootstrap approximations for probabilities $\Pr(n^{-1/2}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\in A)$ where $X_1,\dots,X_n$ are independent random vectors in $\mathbb{R}^p$ and $A$ is a hyperrectangle, or, more generally, a sparsely convex set, and show that the approximation error converges to zero even if $p=p_n\to \infty$ as $n \to \infty$ and $p \gg n$; in particular, $p$ can be as large as $O(e^{Cn^c})$ for some constants $c,C>0$. The result holds uniformly over all hyperrectangles, or more generally, sparsely convex sets, and does not require any restriction on the correlation structure among coordinates of $X_i$. Sparsely convex sets are sets that can be represented as intersections of many convex sets whose indicator functions depend only on a small subset of their arguments, with hyperrectangles being a special case.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

Empirical and multiplier bootstraps for suprema of empirical processes of increasing complexity, and related Gaussian couplings

We derive strong approximations to the supremum of the non-centered empirical process indexed by a possibly unbounded VC-type class of functions by the suprema of the Gaussian and bootstrap processes. The bounds of these approximations are non-asymptotic, which allows us to work with classes of functions whose complexity increases with the sample size. The construction of couplings is not of the Hungarian type and is instead based on the Slepian-Stein methods and Gaussian comparison inequalities. The increasing complexity of classes of functions and non-centrality of the processes make the results useful for applications in modern nonparametric statistics (Giné and Nickl, 2015), in particular allowing us to study the power properties of nonparametric tests using Gaussian and bootstrap approximations.

math.ST↗

arXiv2015

Nonparametric instrumental variable estimation under monotonicity

The ill-posedness of the inverse problem of recovering a regression function in a nonparametric instrumental variable model leads to estimators that may suffer from a very slow, logarithmic rate of convergence. In this paper, we show that restricting the problem to models with monotone regression functions and monotone instruments significantly weakens the ill-posedness of the problem. In stark contrast to the existing literature, the presence of a monotone instrument implies boundedness of our measure of ill-posedness when restricted to the space of monotone functions. Based on this result we derive a novel non-asymptotic error bound for the constrained estimator that imposes monotonicity of the regression function. For a given sample size, the bound is independent of the degree of ill-posedness as long as the regression function is not too steep. As an implication, the bound allows us to show that the constrained estimator converges at a fast, polynomial rate, independently of the degree of ill-posedness, in a large, but slowly shrinking neighborhood of constant functions. Our simulation study demonstrates significant finite-sample performance gains from imposing monotonicity even when the regression function is rather far from being a constant. We apply the constrained estimator to the problem of estimating gasoline demand functions from U.S. data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Some New Asymptotic Theory for Least Squares Series: Pointwise and Uniform Results

In applications it is common that the exact form of a conditional expectation is unknown and having flexible functional forms can lead to improvements. Series method offers that by approximating the unknown function based on $k$ basis functions, where $k$ is allowed to grow with the sample size $n$. We consider series estimators for the conditional mean in light of: (i) sharp LLNs for matrices derived from the noncommutative Khinchin inequalities, (ii) bounds on the Lebesgue factor that controls the ratio between the $L^\infty$ and $L_2$-norms of approximation errors, (iii) maximal inequalities for processes whose entropy integrals diverge, and (iv) strong approximations to series-type processes. These technical tools allow us to contribute to the series literature, specifically the seminal work of Newey (1997), as follows. First, we weaken the condition on the number $k$ of approximating functions used in series estimation from the typical $k^2/n \to 0$ to $k/n \to 0$, up to log factors, which was available only for spline series before. Second, we derive $L_2$ rates and pointwise central limit theorems results when the approximation error vanishes. Under an incorrectly specified model, i.e. when the approximation error does not vanish, analogous results are also shown. Third, under stronger conditions we derive uniform rates and functional central limit theorems that hold if the approximation error vanishes or not. That is, we derive the strong approximation for the entire estimate of the nonparametric function. We derive uniform rates, Gaussian approximations, and uniform confidence bands for a wide collection of linear functionals of the conditional expectation function.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Anti-concentration and honest, adaptive confidence bands

Modern construction of uniform confidence bands for nonparametric densities (and other functions) often relies on the classical Smirnov-Bickel-Rosenblatt (SBR) condition; see, for example, Giné and Nickl [Probab. Theory Related Fields 143 (2009) 569-596]. This condition requires the existence of a limit distribution of an extreme value type for the supremum of a studentized empirical process (equivalently, for the supremum of a Gaussian process with the same covariance function as that of the studentized empirical process). The principal contribution of this paper is to remove the need for this classical condition. We show that a considerably weaker sufficient condition is derived from an anti-concentration property of the supremum of the approximating Gaussian process, and we derive an inequality leading to such a property for separable Gaussian processes. We refer to the new condition as a generalized SBR condition. Our new result shows that the supremum does not concentrate too fast around any value. We then apply this result to derive a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap procedure for constructing honest confidence bands for nonparametric density estimators (this result can be applied in other nonparametric problems as well). An essential advantage of our approach is that it applies generically even in those cases where the limit distribution of the supremum of the studentized empirical process does not exist (or is unknown). This is of particular importance in problems where resolution levels or other tuning parameters have been chosen in a data-driven fashion, which is needed for adaptive constructions of the confidence bands. Finally, of independent interest is our introduction of a new, practical version of Lepski's method, which computes the optimal, nonconservative resolution levels via a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap method.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Gaussian approximation of suprema of empirical processes

This paper develops a new direct approach to approximating suprema of general empirical processes by a sequence of suprema of Gaussian processes, without taking the route of approximating whole empirical processes in the sup-norm. We prove an abstract approximation theorem applicable to a wide variety of statistical problems, such as construction of uniform confidence bands for functions. Notably, the bound in the main approximation theorem is nonasymptotic and the theorem allows for functions that index the empirical process to be unbounded and have entropy divergent with the sample size. The proof of the approximation theorem builds on a new coupling inequality for maxima of sums of random vectors, the proof of which depends on an effective use of Stein's method for normal approximation, and some new empirical process techniques. We study applications of this approximation theorem to local and series empirical processes arising in nonparametric estimation via kernel and series methods, where the classes of functions change with the sample size and are non-Donsker. Importantly, our new technique is able to prove the Gaussian approximation for the supremum type statistics under weak regularity conditions, especially concerning the bandwidth and the number of series functions, in those examples.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Comparison and anti-concentration bounds for maxima of Gaussian random vectors

Slepian and Sudakov-Fernique type inequalities, which compare expectations of maxima of Gaussian random vectors under certain restrictions on the covariance matrices, play an important role in probability theory, especially in empirical process and extreme value theories. Here we give explicit comparisons of expectations of smooth functions and distribution functions of maxima of Gaussian random vectors without any restriction on the covariance matrices. We also establish an anti-concentration inequality for the maximum of a Gaussian random vector, which derives a useful upper bound on the Lévy concentration function for the Gaussian maximum. The bound is dimension-free and applies to vectors with arbitrary covariance matrices. This anti-concentration inequality plays a crucial role in establishing bounds on the Kolmogorov distance between maxima of Gaussian random vectors. These results have immediate applications in mathematical statistics. As an example of application, we establish a conditional multiplier central limit theorem for maxima of sums of independent random vectors where the dimension of the vectors is possibly much larger than the sample size.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Testing Regression Monotonicity in Econometric Models

Monotonicity is a key qualitative prediction of a wide array of economic models derived via robust comparative statics. It is therefore important to design effective and practical econometric methods for testing this prediction in empirical analysis. This paper develops a general nonparametric framework for testing monotonicity of a regression function. Using this framework, a broad class of new tests is introduced, which gives an empirical researcher a lot of flexibility to incorporate ex ante information she might have. The paper also develops new methods for simulating critical values, which are based on the combination of a bootstrap procedure and new selection algorithms. These methods yield tests that have correct asymptotic size and are asymptotically nonconservative. It is also shown how to obtain an adaptive rate optimal test that has the best attainable rate of uniform consistency against models whose regression function has Lipschitz-continuous first-order derivatives and that automatically adapts to the unknown smoothness of the regression function. Simulations show that the power of the new tests in many cases significantly exceeds that of some prior tests, e.g. that of Ghosal, Sen, and Van der Vaart (2000). An application of the developed procedures to the dataset of Ellison and Ellison (2011) shows that there is some evidence of strategic entry deterrence in pharmaceutical industry where incumbents may use strategic investment to prevent generic entries when their patents expire.

math.ST↗

arXiv2012

Adaptive Test of Conditional Moment Inequalities

In this paper, I construct a new test of conditional moment inequalities, which is based on studentized kernel estimates of moment functions with many different values of the bandwidth parameter. The test automatically adapts to the unknown smoothness of moment functions and has uniformly correct asymptotic size. The test has high power in a large class of models with conditional moment inequalities. Some existing tests have nontrivial power against n^{-1/2}-local alternatives in a certain class of these models whereas my method only allows for nontrivial testing against (n/\log n)^{-1/2}-local alternatives in this class. There exist, however, other classes of models with conditional moment inequalities where the mentioned tests have much lower power in comparison with the test developed in this paper.

stat.AP↗