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Dennis Kristensen

Publications and source records attributed to Dennis Kristensen.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

Nonparametric Identification of Two-Way Unobserved Heterogeneity

We study identification of two-way unobserved heterogeneity in the nonparametric panel regression $G_{it}=g(α_i,γ_t)+\varepsilon_{it}$, where identification of the latent types reduces to constructing identified, \emph{injective} proxies for them. To this end we consider the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the bivariate regression function $g(α,γ)$ on a product domain $Ω_α\timesΩ_γ$, whose left singular functions $\{u_r\}$ serve as proxies for the unobserved heterogeneity parameter $α$. The arguments are symmetric for $\{v_r\}$ vis-à-vis $γ$. We work under an \emph{observational-equivalence simplification}: two values of $α$ that induce the same conditional response $g(α,\cdot)$ are identified, so that the response map $α\mapsto g(α,\cdot)$ is injective by construction. We show two things. First, this reduction is \emph{equivalent} to injectivity of the full collection of left singular eigenfunctions, so no further condition is needed over the infinite collection $\{u_r\}_{r\ge1}$. Second, under a single additional \emph{local injectivity} condition, a finite collection of leading eigenfunctions $U_R=(u_1^{\top},\dots,u_R^{\top})^{\top}$ is injective for all sufficiently large $R$. The proof reduces a global univalence question to a local first-order condition plus a topological compactness argument, bypassing the global Jacobian conditions usually required.

econ.EM

Inference on Linear Regressions with Two-Way Unobserved Heterogeneity

We develop a general estimation and inference procedure for the common parameters in linear panel data regression models with nonparametric two-way specification of unobserved heterogeneity. The procedure takes as input any first-step estimators of the nonparametric regression function and the fixed effects and relies on two key ingredients: First, we develop moment conditions for the common parameters that are Neyman orthogonal with respect to the nonparametric regression function. Second, we employ a novel adjustment of the nonparametric regression estimator so the estimated fixed effects do not generate incidental parameter biases. Together, these ensure that the resulting estimator of the common parameters is root-NT -- asymptotically normally distributed under weak conditions on the estimators of fixed effects and regression function. Next, we propose a novel two-step estimator of the nonparametric regression function and the fixed effects and verify that this particular estimator satisfies the conditions of our general theory. A numerical study shows that the proposed estimators perform well in finite samples.

econ.EM

Local Polynomial Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in Nonlinear Models

We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial extremum estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time series models. We show the proposed estimators are consistent and follow normal distributions in large samples under weak conditions. We also provide a precise characterisation of the leading bias term due to smoothing, which has not been done before. We demonstrate the usefulness of our general results by establishing primitive conditions for local (quasi-)maximum-likelihood estimators of time-varying models threshold autoregressions, ARCH models and Poisson autogressions with exogenous co--variates, to be normally distributed in large samples and characterise their leading biases. An empirical study of US corporate default counts demonstrates the applicability of the proposed local linear estimator for Poisson autoregression, shedding new light on the dynamic properties of US corporate defaults.

econ.EM

Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous-time Markov models

This paper develops power series expansions of a general class of moment functions, including transition densities and option prices, of continuous-time Markov processes, including jump--diffusions. The proposed expansions extend the ones in Kristensen and Mele (2011) to cover general Markov processes. We demonstrate that the class of expansions nests the transition density and option price expansions developed in Yang, Chen, and Wan (2019) and Wan and Yang (2021) as special cases, thereby connecting seemingly different ideas in a unified framework. We show how the general expansion can be implemented for fully general jump--diffusion models. We provide a new theory for the validity of the expansions which shows that series expansions are not guaranteed to converge as more terms are added in general. Thus, these methods should be used with caution. At the same time, the numerical studies in this paper demonstrate good performance of the proposed implementation in practice when a small number of terms are included.

econ.EM

Diffusion Copulas: Identification and Estimation

We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class of semiparametric Markov diffusion models with parametric dynamic copulas and nonparametric marginal distributions. We provide primitive conditions for the identification of the UPD parameters together with the unknown transformations from discrete samples. Likelihood-based estimators of both parametric and nonparametric components are developed and we analyze the asymptotic properties of these. Kernel-based drift and diffusion estimators are also proposed and shown to be normally distributed in large samples. A simulation study investigates the finite sample performance of our estimators in the context of modelling US short-term interest rates. We also present a simple application of the proposed method for modelling the CBOE volatility index data.

econ.EM

Identification of a class of index models: A topological approach

We establish nonparametric identification in a class of so-called index models using a novel approach that relies on general topological results. Our proof strategy requires substantially weaker conditions on the functions and distributions characterizing the model compared to existing strategies; in particular, it does not require any large support conditions on the regressors of our model. We apply the general identification result to additive random utility and competing risk models.

econ.EM

Bayesian Indirect Inference and the ABC of GMM

In this paper we propose and study local linear and polynomial based estimators for implementing Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) style indirect inference and GMM estimators. This method makes use of nonparametric regression in the computation of GMM and Indirect Inference models. We provide formal conditions under which frequentist inference is asymptotically valid and demonstrate the validity of the estimated posterior quantiles for confidence interval construction. We also show that in this setting, local linear kernel regression methods have theoretical advantages over local constant kernel methods that are also reflected in finite sample simulation results. Our results also apply to both exactly and over identified models. These estimators do not need to rely on numerical optimization or Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. They provide an effective complement to the classical M-estimators and to MCMC methods, and can be applied to both likelihood based models and method of moment based models.

math.ST

Solving Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Using Smoothing and Sieve Methods

We propose to combine smoothing, simulations and sieve approximations to solve for either the integrated or expected value function in a general class of dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models. We use importance sampling to approximate the Bellman operators defining the two functions. The random Bellman operators, and therefore also the corresponding solutions, are generally non-smooth which is undesirable. To circumvent this issue, we introduce a smoothed version of the random Bellman operator and solve for the corresponding smoothed value function using sieve methods. We show that one can avoid using sieves by generalizing and adapting the `self-approximating' method of Rust (1997) to our setting. We provide an asymptotic theory for the approximate solutions and show that they converge with root-N-rate, where $N$ is number of Monte Carlo draws, towards Gaussian processes. We examine their performance in practice through a set of numerical experiments and find that both methods perform well with the sieve method being particularly attractive in terms of computational speed and accuracy.

econ.EM