arXiv subjects

Denny Borsboom

Publications and source records attributed to Denny Borsboom.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Slow Context, Fast Symptoms: Multiscale Temporal Dynamics and Context-Induced Coupling in Psychological Systems

Psychological dynamics unfold across multiple timescales: symptoms and other psychological states can change rapidly, whereas social, environmental, biological, and developmental conditions often evolve more slowly. We formulate this structure as a stochastic slow-fast system in which binary symptom states form a fast interacting network embedded within a slow contextual field. Pairwise symptom coupling governs interactions within the fast layer, while the contextual field shifts symptom-specific activation tendencies and can itself receive feedback from sustained symptom activation. Simulations show that changes in the slow field can shift the macroscopic activation state of the symptom system even when the underlying interaction matrix remains fixed. Perturbations to the field generate transient increases in symptom activation followed by recovery, while feedback between the fast and slow layers delays recovery and, when sufficiently strong, produces dependence on initial conditions. We further show that when between-person variation in the contextual field is omitted from network estimation, the inferred system exhibits stronger total coupling and nonzero couplings between symptom pairs that are uncoupled in the data-generating model. Thus, slowly varying context can alter both the dynamics and the apparent interaction structure of a fast psychological system. The framework connects psychological network models with slow-fast dynamical systems and provides a formal basis for distinguishing changes in activation from changes in coupling.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Measurement error and reliability from a different perspective: Reliability of decision functions and the sum score

We propose an alternative framework for measurement error that allows us to determine reliability at the level of the decision, such as the decision to pass or fail. This framework makes it possible to answer the question which properties of a decision function are relevant to make decisions. The mechanism is relatively simple for dichotomous items: The response to any item has probability $\tfrac{1}{2}(1-ρ)$, with $ρ\in [-1,1]$, to be different from the original response. We show that this framework satisfies the classical axioms (those of Lord and Novick) and can therefore be considered as being aligned with classical test theory. We also show some relations to modern test theory and its connections to graphs. We then connect the idea of reliability at the level of the decision to the idea of how many of the (two-response) items are required to be flipped to change the decision; this is referred to as stability. Finally, we argue that from this perspective the best decision function (with respect to a set of properties including stability) is a weighted sum score with threshold value.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Automating and Scaling Behavioral Scientific Research on AI Agents

As AI agents are increasingly deployed in complex environments, understanding their behaviors becomes critical. Yet behavioral scientific research on AI agents remains manual and labor-intensive. We introduce AEROBAT, the first multi-agent system to automate behavioral scientific research on AI agents. Given an arbitrary target behavior by its user, AEROBAT automatically executes a full pipeline of behavioral scientific research---generating hypotheses about the behavior, designing and executing controlled experiments, making behavioral assessments, analyzing the results, and writing reports. For 12 target behaviors, we used AEROBAT to generate and test 73 hypotheses: designing 1,160 controlled experiments and executing 22,954 simulation rounds in total. Moderate-to-strong statistical evidence was found for 30 hypotheses, including some novel ones. In sum, our results demonstrate that automated behavioral scientific research on AI agents can complement and extend the reach of manual research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Emergence of psychopathological computations in large language models

Can large language models (LLMs) instantiate computations of psychopathology? An effective approach to the question hinges on addressing two factors. First, for conceptual validity, we require a general and computational account of psychopathology that is applicable to computational entities without biological embodiment or subjective experience. Second, psychopathological computations, derived from the adapted theory, need to be empirically identified within the LLM's internal processing. Thus, we establish a computational-theoretical framework to provide an account of psychopathology applicable to LLMs. Based on the framework, we conduct experiments demonstrating two key claims: first, that the computational structure of psychopathology exists in LLMs; and second, that executing this computational structure results in psychopathological functions. We further observe that as LLM size increases, the computational structure of psychopathology becomes denser and that the functions become more effective. Taken together, the empirical results corroborate our hypothesis that network-theoretic computations of psychopathology have already emerged in LLMs. This suggests that certain LLM behaviors mirroring psychopathology may not be a superficial mimicry but a feature of their internal processing. Our work shows the promise of developing a new powerful in silico model of psychopathology and also alludes to the possibility of safety threat from the AI systems with psychopathological behaviors in the near future.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2022

Quantifying agent impacts on contact sequences in social interactions

Human social behavior plays a crucial role in how pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 or fake news spread in a population. Social interactions determine the contact network among individuals, while spreading, requiring individual-to-individual transmission, takes place on top of the network. Studying the topological aspects of a contact network, therefore, not only has the potential of leading to valuable insights into how the behavior of individuals impacts spreading phenomena, but it may also open up possibilities for devising effective behavioral interventions. Because of the temporal nature of interactions - since the topology of the network, containing who is in contact with whom, when, for how long, and in which precise sequence, varies (rapidly) in time - analyzing them requires developing network methods and metrics that respect temporal variability, in contrast to those developed for static (i.e., time-invariant) networks. Here, by means of event mapping, we propose a method to quantify how quickly agents mingle by transforming temporal network data of agent contacts. We define a novel measure called 'contact sequence centrality', which quantifies the impact of an individual on the contact sequences, reflecting the individual's behavioral potential for spreading. Comparing contact sequence centrality across agents allows for ranking the impact of agents and identifying potential 'behavioral super-spreaders'. The method is applied to social interaction data collected at an art fair in Amsterdam. We relate the measure to the existing network metrics, both temporal and static, and find that (mostly at longer time scales) traditional metrics lose their resemblance to contact sequence centrality. Our work highlights the importance of accounting for the sequential nature of contacts when analyzing social interactions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Moderated Network Models

Pairwise network models such as the Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) are a powerful and intuitive way to analyze dependencies in multivariate data. A key assumption of the GGM is that each pairwise interaction is independent of the values of all other variables. However, in psychological research this is often implausible. In this paper, we extend the GGM by allowing each pairwise interaction between two variables to be moderated by (a subset of) all other variables in the model, and thereby introduce a Moderated Network Model (MNM). We show how to construct the MNM and propose an L1-regularized nodewise regression approach to estimate it. We provide performance results in a simulation study and show that MNMs outperform the split-sample based methods Network Comparison Test (NCT) and Fused Graphical Lasso (FGL) in detecting moderation effects. Finally, we provide a fully reproducible tutorial on how to estimate MNMs with the R-package mgm and discuss possible issues with model misspecification.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Network Psychometrics

This chapter provides a general introduction of network modeling in psychometrics. The chapter starts with an introduction to the statistical model formulation of pairwise Markov random fields (PMRF), followed by an introduction of the PMRF suitable for binary data: the Ising model. The Ising model is a model used in ferromagnetism to explain phase transitions in a field of particles. Following the description of the Ising model in statistical physics, the chapter continues to show that the Ising model is closely related to models used in psychometrics. The Ising model can be shown to be equivalent to certain kinds of logistic regression models, loglinear models and multi-dimensional item response theory (MIRT) models. The equivalence between the Ising model and the MIRT model puts standard psychometrics in a new light and leads to a strikingly different interpretation of well-known latent variable models. The chapter gives an overview of methods that can be used to estimate the Ising model, and concludes with a discussion on the interpretation of latent variables given the equivalence between the Ising model and MIRT.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

A Network Perspective on Attitude Strength: Testing the Connectivity Hypothesis

Attitude strength is a key characteristic of attitudes. Strong attitudes are durable and impactful, while weak attitudes are fluctuating and inconsequential. Recently, the Causal Attitude Network (CAN) model was proposed as a comprehensive measurement model of attitudes, which conceptualizes attitudes as networks of causally connected evaluative reactions (i.e., beliefs, feelings, and behavior toward an attitude object). Here, we test the central postulate of the CAN model that highly connected attitude networks correspond to strong attitudes. We use data from the American National Election Studies 1980-2012 on attitudes toward presidential candidates (total n = 18,795). We first show that political interest predicts connectivity of attitude networks toward presidential candidates. Second, we show that connectivity is strongly related to two defining features of strong attitudes - stability of the attitude and the attitude's impact on behavior. We conclude that network theory provides a promising framework to advance the understanding of attitude strength.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

The Gaussian Graphical Model in Cross-sectional and Time-series Data

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse modeling of covariance structures, and may highlight potential causal relationships between observed variables. We describe the utility in 3 kinds of psychological datasets: datasets in which consecutive cases are assumed independent (e.g., cross-sectional data), temporally ordered datasets (e.g., n = 1 time series), and a mixture of the 2 (e.g., n > 1 time series). In time-series analysis, the GGM can be used to model the residual structure of a vector-autoregression analysis (VAR), also termed graphical VAR. Two network models can then be obtained: a temporal network and a contemporaneous network. When analyzing data from multiple subjects, a GGM can also be formed on the covariance structure of stationary means---the between-subjects network. We discuss the interpretation of these models and propose estimation methods to obtain these networks, which we implement in the R packages graphicalVAR and mlVAR. The methods are showcased in two empirical examples, and simulation studies on these methods are included in the supplementary materials.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

Generalized Network Psychometrics: Combining Network and Latent Variable Models

We introduce the network model as a formal psychometric model, conceptualizing the covariance between psychometric indicators as resulting from pairwise interactions between observable variables in a network structure. This contrasts with standard psychometric models, in which the covariance between test items arises from the influence of one or more common latent variables. Here, we present two generalizations of the network model that encompass latent variable structures, establishing network modeling as parts of the more general framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). In the first generalization, we model the covariance structure of latent variables as a network. We term this framework Latent Network Modeling (LNM) and show that, with LNM, a unique structure of conditional independence relationships between latent variables can be obtained in an explorative manner. In the second generalization, the residual variance-covariance structure of indicators is modeled as a network. We term this generalization Residual Network Modeling (RNM) and show that, within this framework, identifiable models can be obtained in which local independence is structurally violated. These generalizations allow for a general modeling framework that can be used to fit, and compare, SEM models, network models, and the RNM and LNM generalizations. This methodology has been implemented in the free-to-use software package lvnet, which contains confirmatory model testing as well as two exploratory search algorithms: stepwise search algorithms for low-dimensional datasets and penalized maximum likelihood estimation for larger datasets. We show in simulation studies that these search algorithms performs adequately in identifying the structure of the relevant residual or latent networks. We further demonstrate the utility of these generalizations in an empirical example on a personality inventory dataset.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Network Structure Explains the Impact of Attitudes on Voting Decisions

Attitudes can have a profound impact on socially relevant behaviours, such as voting. However, this effect is not uniform across situations or individuals, and it is at present difficult to predict whether attitudes will predict behaviour in any given circumstance. Using a network model, we demonstrate that (a) more strongly connected attitude networks have a stronger impact on behaviour, and (b) within any given attitude network, the most central attitude elements have the strongest impact. We test these hypotheses using data on voting and attitudes toward presidential candidates in the US presidential elections from 1980 to 2012. These analyses confirm that the predictive value of attitude networks depends almost entirely on their level of connectivity, with more central attitude elements having stronger impact. The impact of attitudes on voting behaviour can thus be reliably determined before elections take place by using network analyses.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Estimating Psychological Networks and their Accuracy: A Tutorial Paper

The usage of psychological networks that conceptualize psychological behavior as a complex interplay of psychological and other components has gained increasing popularity in various fields of psychology. While prior publications have tackled the topics of estimating and interpreting such networks, little work has been conducted to check how accurate (i.e., prone to sampling variation) networks are estimated, and how stable (i.e., interpretation remains similar with less observations) inferences from the network structure (such as centrality indices) are. In this tutorial paper, we aim to introduce the reader to this field and tackle the problem of accuracy under sampling variation. We first introduce the current state-of-the-art of network estimation. Second, we provide a rationale why researchers should investigate the accuracy of psychological networks. Third, we describe how bootstrap routines can be used to (A) assess the accuracy of estimated network connections, (B) investigate the stability of centrality indices, and (C) test whether network connections and centrality estimates for different variables differ from each other. We introduce two novel statistical methods: for (B) the correlation stability coefficient, and for (C) the bootstrapped difference test for edge-weights and centrality indices. We conducted and present simulation studies to assess the performance of both methods. Finally, we developed the free R-package bootnet that allows for estimating psychological networks in a generalized framework in addition to the proposed bootstrap methods. We showcase bootnet in a tutorial, accompanied by R syntax, in which we analyze a dataset of 359 women with posttraumatic stress disorder available online.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Major depression as a complex dynamic system

In this paper, we characterize major depression (MD) as a complex dynamical system in which symptoms (e.g., insomnia and fatigue) are directly connected to one another in a network structure. We hypothesize that individuals can be characterized by their own network with unique architecture and resulting dynamics. With respect to architecture, we show that individuals vulnerable to developing MD are those with strong connections between symptoms: e.g., only one night of poor sleep suffices to make a particular person feel tired. Such vulnerable networks, when pushed by forces external to the system such as stress, are more likely to end up in a depressed state; whereas networks with weaker connections tend to remain in or return to a healthy state. We show this with a simulation in which we model the probability of a symptom becoming active as a logistic function of the activity of its neighboring symptoms. Additionally, we show that this model potentially explains some well-known empirical phenomena such as spontaneous recovery as well as accommodates existing theories about the various subtypes of MD. To our knowledge, we offer the first intra-individual, symptom-based, process model with the potential to explain the pathogenesis and maintenance of major depression.

physics.med-ph↗