arXiv subjects

Dirk Helbing

Publications and source records attributed to Dirk Helbing.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2012

FuturICT

FuturlCT is a FET Flagship project using collective, participatory research, integrated across ICT, the social sciences and complexity science, to design socio-inspired technology and develop a science of global, socially interactive systems. The project will bring together, on a global level, Big Data, new modelling techniques and new forms of interaction, leading to a new understanding of society and its coevolution with technology. It aims to understand, explore and manage our complex, connected world in a more sustainable and resilient way. FuturICT is motivated by the fact that ubiquitous communication and sensing blur the boundaries between the physical and digital worlds, creating unparalleled opportunities for understanding the socio-economic fabric of our world, and for empowering humanity to make informed, responsible decisions for its future. The intimate, complex and dynamic relationship between global, networked ICT systems and human society directly influences the complexity and manageability of both. This also opens up the possibility to fundamentally change the way ICT will be designed, built and operated, to reflect the need for socially interactive, ethically sensitive, trustworthy, self-organised and reliable systems. FuturICT will create a new public resource - value-oriented tools and models to aggregate, access, query and understand vast amounts of data. Information from open sources, real-time devices and mobile sensors will be integrated with multi-scale models of the behaviour of social, technological, environmental and economic systems, which can be interrogated by policy-makers, business people and citizens alike. Together, these will build an eco-system that will lead to new business models, scientific paradigm shifts and more rapid and effective ways to create and disseminate new knowledge and social benefits - thereby forming an innovation accelerator.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2012

FuturICT - The Road towards Ethical ICT

The pervasive use of information and communication technology (ICT) in modern societies enables countless opportunities for individuals, institutions, businesses and scientists, but also raises difficult ethical and social problems. In particular, ICT helped to make societies more complex and thus harder to understand, which impedes social and political interventions to avoid harm and to increase the common good. To overcome this obstacle, the large-scale EU flagship proposal FuturICT intends to create a platform for accessing global human knowledge as a public good and instruments to increase our understanding of the information society by making use of ICT-based research. In this contribution, we outline the ethical justification for such an endeavor. We argue that the ethical issues raised by FuturICT research projects overlap substantially with many of the known ethical problems emerging from ICT use in general. By referring to the notion of Value Sensitive Design, we show for the example of privacy how this core value of responsible ICT can be protected in pursuing research in the framework of FuturICT. In addition, we discuss further ethical issues and outline the institutional design of FuturICT allowing to address them.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2012

Theoretical And Technological Building Blocks For An Innovation Accelerator

The scientific system that we use today was devised centuries ago and is inadequate for our current ICT-based society: the peer review system encourages conservatism, journal publications are monolithic and slow, data is often not available to other scientists, and the independent validation of results is limited. Building on the Innovation Accelerator paper by Helbing and Balietti (2011) this paper takes the initial global vision and reviews the theoretical and technological building blocks that can be used for implementing an innovation (in first place: science) accelerator platform driven by re-imagining the science system. The envisioned platform would rest on four pillars: (i) Redesign the incentive scheme to reduce behavior such as conservatism, herding and hyping; (ii) Advance scientific publications by breaking up the monolithic paper unit and introducing other building blocks such as data, tools, experiment workflows, resources; (iii) Use machine readable semantics for publications, debate structures, provenance etc. in order to include the computer as a partner in the scientific process, and (iv) Build an online platform for collaboration, including a network of trust and reputation among the different types of stakeholders in the scientific system: scientists, educators, funding agencies, policy makers, students and industrial innovators among others. Any such improvements to the scientific system must support the entire scientific process (unlike current tools that chop up the scientific process into disconnected pieces), must facilitate and encourage collaboration and interdisciplinarity (again unlike current tools), must facilitate the inclusion of intelligent computing in the scientific process, must facilitate not only the core scientific process, but also accommodate other stakeholders such science policy makers, industrial innovators, and the general public.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2012

Accelerating Scientific Discovery by Formulating Grand Scientific Challenges

One important question for science and society is how to best promote scientific progress. Inspired by the great success of Hilbert's famous set of problems, the FuturICT project tries to stimulate and focus the efforts of many scientists by formulating Grand Challenges, i.e. a set of fundamental, relevant and hardly solvable scientific questions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2012

Crowd Disasters as Systemic Failures: Analysis of the Love Parade Disaster

Each year, crowd disasters happen in different areas of the world. How and why do such disasters happen? Are the fatalities caused by relentless behavior of people or a psychological state of panic that makes the crowd 'go mad'? Or are they a tragic consequence of a breakdown of coordination? These and other questions are addressed, based on a qualitative analysis of publicly available videos and materials, which document the planning and organization of the Love Parade in Duisburg, Germany, and the crowd disaster on July 24, 2010. Our analysis reveals a number of misunderstandings that have widely spread. We also provide a new perspective on concepts such as 'intentional pushing', 'mass panic', 'stampede', and 'crowd crushs'. The focus of our analysis is on the contributing causal factors and their mutual interdependencies, not on legal issues or the judgment of personal or institutional responsibilities. Video recordings show that, in Duisburg, people stumbled and piled up due to a 'domino effect', resulting from a phenomenon called 'crowd turbulence' or 'crowd quake'. Crowd quakes are a typical reason for crowd disasters, to be distinguished from crowd disasters resulting from 'panic stampedes' or 'crowd crushes'. In Duisburg, crowd turbulence was the consequence of amplifying feedback and cascading effects, which are typical for systemic instabilities. Accordingly, things can go terribly wrong in spite of no bad intentions from anyone. Comparing the incident in Duisburg with others, we give recommendations to help prevent future crowd disasters. In particular, we introduce a new scale to assess the criticality of conditions in the crowd. This may allow preventative measures to be taken earlier on. Furthermore, we discuss the merits and limitations of citizen science for public investigation, considering that today, almost every event is recorded and reflected in the World Wide Web.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2012

Universality class of balanced flows with bottlenecks: granular flows, pedestrian fluxes and financial price dynamics

We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counter-flows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counter-flows of simulated pedestrians through a door display many stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. The stylized properties are present already when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our finding suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2012

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2012

Fair sharing of resources in a supply network with constraints

This paper investigates the effect of network topology on the fair allocation of network resources among a set of agents, an all-important issue for the efficiency of transportation networks all around us. We analyse a generic mechanism that distributes network capacity fairly among existing flow demands. The problem can be solved by semi-analytical methods on a nearest neighbour graph with one source and sink pair, when transport occurs over shortest paths. For this setup, we uncover a broad range of patterns of intersecting shortest paths as a function of the distance between the source and the sink. When the number of intersections is the maximum and the distance between the source and the sink is large, we find that a fair allocation implies a decrease of at least 50% from the maximum throughput. We also find that the histogram of the flow allocations assigned to the agents decays as a power-law with exponent -1. Our semi-analytical framework suggests possible explanations for the well-known reduction of the throughput in fair allocations. It also suggests that the combination of network topology and routing rules can lead to highly uneven (but fair) distributions of resources, a remark of caution to network designers.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

FuturICT - New Science and Technology to Manage Our Complex, Strongly Connected World

We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. But we still don't understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be created. An interdisciplinary integration of natural, social, and engineering sciences, as it will be performed by the FuturICT flagship project, can produce the synergy effects required to address many of our 21st century challenges. One can expect that, after the age of physical, biological and technological innovations, Europe can lead the next era - a wave of social and socio-inspired innovations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

Recognition of Crowd Behavior from Mobile Sensors with Pattern Analysis and Graph Clustering Methods

Mobile on-body sensing has distinct advantages for the analysis and understanding of crowd dynamics: sensing is not geographically restricted to a specific instrumented area, mobile phones offer on-body sensing and they are already deployed on a large scale, and the rich sets of sensors they contain allows one to characterize the behavior of users through pattern recognition techniques. In this paper we present a methodological framework for the machine recognition of crowd behavior from on-body sensors, such as those in mobile phones. The recognition of crowd behaviors opens the way to the acquisition of large-scale datasets for the analysis and understanding of crowd dynamics. It has also practical safety applications by providing improved crowd situational awareness in cases of emergency. The framework comprises: behavioral recognition with the user's mobile device, pairwise analyses of the activity relatedness of two users, and graph clustering in order to uncover globally, which users participate in a given crowd behavior. We illustrate this framework for the identification of groups of persons walking, using empirically collected data. We discuss the challenges and research avenues for theoretical and applied mathematics arising from the mobile sensing of crowd behaviors.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2011

How simple rules determine pedestrian behavior and crowd disasters

With the increasing size and frequency of mass events, the study of crowd disasters and the simulation of pedestrian flows have become important research areas. Yet, even successful modeling approaches such as those inspired by Newtonian force models are still not fully consistent with empirical observations and are sometimes hard to calibrate. Here, a novel cognitive science approach is proposed, which is based on behavioral heuristics. We suggest that, guided by visual information, namely the distance of obstructions in candidate lines of sight, pedestrians apply two simple cognitive procedures to adapt their walking speeds and directions. While simpler than previous approaches, this model predicts individual trajectories and collective patterns of motion in good quantitative agreement with a large variety of empirical and experimental data. This includes the emergence of self-organization phenomena, such as the spontaneous formation of unidirectional lanes or stop-and-go waves. Moreover, the combination of pedestrian heuristics with body collisions generates crowd turbulence at extreme densities-a phenomenon that has been observed during recent crowd disasters. By proposing an integrated treatment of simultaneous interactions between multiple individuals, our approach overcomes limitations of current physics-inspired pair interaction models. Understanding crowd dynamics through cognitive heuristics is therefore not only crucial for a better preparation of safe mass events. It also clears the way for a more realistic modeling of collective social behaviors, in particular of human crowds and biological swarms. Furthermore, our behavioral heuristics may serve to improve the navigation of autonomous robots.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

How citation boosts promote scientific paradigm shifts and Nobel Prizes

Nobel Prizes are commonly seen to be among the most prestigious achievements of our times. Based on mining several million citations, we quantitatively analyze the processes driving paradigm shifts in science. We find that groundbreaking discoveries of Nobel Prize Laureates and other famous scientists are not only acknowledged by many citations of their landmark papers. Surprisingly, they also boost the citation rates of their previous publications. Given that innovations must outcompete the rich-gets-richer effect for scientific citations, it turns out that they can make their way only through citation cascades. A quantitative analysis reveals how and why they happen. Science appears to behave like a self-organized critical system, in which citation cascades of all sizes occur, from continuous scientific progress all the way up to scientific revolutions, which change the way we see our world. Measuring the "boosting effect" of landmark papers, our analysis reveals how new ideas and new players can make their way and finally triumph in a world dominated by established paradigms. The underlying "boost factor" is also useful to discover scientific breakthroughs and talents much earlier than through classical citation analysis, which by now has become a widespread method to measure scientific excellence, influencing scientific careers and the distribution of research funds. Our findings reveal patterns of collective social behavior, which are also interesting from an attention economics perspective. Understanding the origin of scientific authority may therefore ultimately help to explain, how social influence comes about and why the value of goods depends so strongly on the attention they attract.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2011

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2011

How to Create an Innovation Accelerator

Too many policy failures are fundamentally failures of knowledge. This has become particularly apparent during the recent financial and economic crisis, which is questioning the validity of mainstream scholarly paradigms. We propose to pursue a multi-disciplinary approach and to establish new institutional settings which remove or reduce obstacles impeding efficient knowledge creation. We provided suggestions on (i) how to modernize and improve the academic publication system, and (ii) how to support scientific coordination, communication, and co-creation in large-scale multi-disciplinary projects. Both constitute important elements of what we envision to be a novel ICT infrastructure called "Innovation Accelerator" or "Knowledge Accelerator".

cs.DL↗

arXiv2011

The Spatial Variability of Vehicle Densities as Determinant of Urban Network Capacity

Due to the complexity of the traffic flow dynamics in urban road networks, most quantitative descriptions of city traffic so far are based on computer simulations. This contribution pursues a macroscopic (fluid-dynamic) simulation approach, which facilitates a simple simulation of congestion spreading in cities. First, we show that a quantization of the macroscopic turning flows into units of single vehicles is necessary to obtain realistic fluctuations in the traffic variables, and how this can be implemented in a fluid-dynamic model. Then, we propose a new method to simulate destination flows without the requirement of individual route assignments. Combining both methods allows us to study a variety of different simulation scenarios. These reveal fundamental relationships between the average flow, the average density, and the variability of the vehicle densities. Considering the inhomogeneity of traffic as an independent variable can eliminate the scattering of congested flow measurements. The variability also turns out to be a key variable of urban traffic performance. Our results can be explained through the number of full links of the road network, and approximated by a simple analytical formula.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2011

Percolate or die: Multi-percolation decides the struggle between competing innovations

Competition is one of the most fundamental phenomena in physics, biology and economics. Recent studies of the competition between innovations have highlighted the influence of switching costs and interaction networks, but the problem is still puzzling. We introduce a model that reveals a novel multi-percolation process, which governs the struggle of innovations trying to penetrate a market. We find that innovations thrive as long as they percolate in a population, and one becomes dominant when it is the only one that percolates. Besides offering a theoretical framework to understand the diffusion of competing innovations in social networks, our results are also relevant to model other problems such as opinion formation, political polarization, survival of languages and the spread of health behavior.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2010

Connectivity statistics of store-and-forward inter-vehicle communication

Inter-vehicle communication (IVC) enables vehicles to exchange messages within a limited broadcast range and thus self-organize into dynamical vehicular ad hoc networks. For the foreseeable future, however, a direct connectivity between equipped vehicles in one direction is rarely possible. We therefore investigate an alternative mode in which messages are stored by relay vehicles traveling in the opposite direction, and forwarded to vehicles in the original direction at a later time. The wireless communication consists of two `transversal' message hops across driving directions. Since direct connectivity for transversal hops and a successful message transmission to vehicles in the destination region is only a matter of time, the quality of this IVC strategy can be described in terms of the distribution function for the total transmission time. Assuming a Poissonian distance distribution between equipped vehicles, we derive analytical probability distributions for message transmission times and related propagation speeds for a deterministic and a stochastic model of the maximum range of direct communication. By means of integrated microscopic simulations of communication and bi-directional traffic flows, we validated the theoretical expectation for multi-lane roadways. We found little deviation of the analytical result for multi-lane scenarios, but significant deviations for a single-lane. This can be explained by vehicle platooning. We demonstrate the efficiency of the transverse hopping mechanism for a congestion-warning application in a microscopic traffic simulation scenario. Messages are created on an event-driven basis by equipped vehicles entering and leaving a traffic jam. This application is operative for penetration levels as low as 1%.

cs.NI↗