arXiv subjects

Dirk Helbing

Publications and source records attributed to Dirk Helbing.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Inheritance patterns in citation networks reveal scientific memes

Memes are the cultural equivalent of genes that spread across human culture by means of imitation. What makes a meme and what distinguishes it from other forms of information, however, is still poorly understood. Our analysis of memes in the scientific literature reveals that they are governed by a surprisingly simple relationship between frequency of occurrence and the degree to which they propagate along the citation graph. We propose a simple formalization of this pattern and we validate it with data from close to 50 million publication records from the Web of Science, PubMed Central, and the American Physical Society. Evaluations relying on human annotators, citation network randomizations, and comparisons with several alternative approaches confirm that our formula is accurate and effective, without a dependence on linguistic or ontological knowledge and without the application of arbitrary thresholds or filters.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute

We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Crazy 1d billiards: Behavior of spring-fixated, noisy colliding particles

We study a one-dimensional system of spatially extended particles, which are fixated to regularly spaced locations by means of elastic springs. The particles are assumed to be driven by a Gaussian noise and to have dissipative, energy-conserving or anti-dissipative (flipper-like) interactions, when the particle density exceeds a critical threshold. While each particle in separation shows a wellbehaved behavior characterized by a Gaussian velocity distribution, the interaction of particles at high densities can cause an avalanche-like momentum and energy transfer, which can generate steep power laws without a well-defined variance and mean value. Specifically, the velocity variance increases dramatically towards the free boundaries of the driven-many-particle system. The model might also have some relevance for a better understanding of crowd disasters. Our results suggest that these are most likely caused by passive momentum transfers, and not by active pushing.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2013

Reducing Financial Avalanches By Random Investments

Building on similarities between earthquakes and extreme financial events, we use a self-organized criticality-generating model to study herding and avalanche dynamics in financial markets. We consider a community of interacting investors, distributed on a small-world network, who bet on the bullish (increasing) or bearish (decreasing) behavior of the market which has been specified according to the S&P500 historical time series. Remarkably, we find that the size of herding-related avalanches in the community can be strongly reduced by the presence of a relatively small percentage of traders, randomly distributed inside the network, who adopt a random investment strategy. Our findings suggest a promising strategy to limit the size of financial bubbles and crashes. We also obtain that the resulting wealth distribution of all traders corresponds to the well-known Pareto power law, while the one of random traders is exponential. In other words, for technical traders, the risk of losses is much greater than the probability of gains compared to those of random traders.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabililties to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

New Ways to Promote Sustainability and Social Well-Being in a Complex, Strongly Interdependent World: The FuturICT Approach

FuturICT is one of six proposals currently being considered for support within the European Commission's Flagship Initiative (see Box 1). The vision of the FuturICT project is to develop new science and new information and communication systems that will promote social self-organization, self-regulation, well-being, sustainability, and resilience. One of the main aims of the approach is to increase individual opportunities for social, economic and political participation, combined with the creation of collective awareness of the impact that human actions have on our world. This requires us to mine large datasets ("Big Data") and to develop new methods and tools: a Planetary Nervous System (PNS) to answer "What is (the state of the world)..." questions, a Living Earth Simulator (LES) to study "What ... if ..." scenarios, and a Global Participatory Platform (GPP) for social exploration and interaction.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2013

A New Kind of Economy is Born - Social Decision-Makers Beat the "Homo Economicus"

The Internet and Social Media change our way of decision-making. We are no longer the independent decision makers we used to be. Instead, we have become networked minds, social decision-makers, more than ever before. This has several fundamental implications. First of all, our economic theories must change, and second, our economic institutions must be adapted to support the social decision-maker, the "homo socialis", rather than tailored to the perfect egoist, known as "homo economicus".

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

The Physics of Traffic and Regional Development

This contribution summarizes and explains various principles from physics which are used for the simulation of traffic flows in large street networks, the modeling of destination, transport mode, and route choice, or the simulation of urban growth and regional development. The methods stem from many-particle physics, from kinetic gas theory, or fluiddynamics. They involve energy and entropy considerations, transfer the law of gravity, apply cellular automata and require methods from evolutionary game theory. In this way, one can determine interaction forces among driver-vehicle units, reproduce breakdowns of traffic including features of synchronized congested flow, or understand changing usage patterns of alternative roads. One can also describe daily activity patterns based on decision models, simulate migration streams, and model urban growth as a particular kind of aggregation process.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Understanding recurrent crime as system-immanent collective behavior

Containing the spreading of crime is a major challenge for society. Yet, since thousands of years, no effective strategy has been found to overcome crime. To the contrary, empirical evidence shows that crime is recurrent, a fact that is not captured well by rational choice theories of crime. According to these, strong enough punishment should prevent crime from happening. To gain a better understanding of the relationship between crime and punishment, we consider that the latter requires prior discovery of illicit behavior and study a spatial version of the inspection game. Simulations reveal the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance between ''criminals'', ''inspectors'', and ''ordinary people'' as a consequence of spatial interactions. Such cycles dominate the evolutionary process, in particular when the temptation to commit crime or the cost of inspection are low or moderate. Yet, there are also critical parameter values beyond which cycles cease to exist and the population is dominated either by a stable mixture of criminals and inspectors or one of these two strategies alone. Both continuous and discontinuous phase transitions to different final states are possible, indicating that successful strategies to contain crime can be very much counter-intuitive and complex. Our results demonstrate that spatial interactions are crucial for the evolutionary outcome of the inspection game, and they also reveal why criminal behavior is likely to be recurrent rather than evolving towards an equilibrium with monotonous parameter dependencies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

From Technology-Driven Society to Socially Oriented Technology. The Future of Information Society -- Alternatives to Surveillance

Our society is changing. Almost nothing these days works without a computer chip. Computing power doubles every 18 months, and in ten years it will probably exceed the capabilities of a human brain. Computers perform approximately 70 percent of all financial transactions today and IBM's Watson now seems to give better customer advise than some human telephone hotlines. What does this imply for our future society?

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Qualified Trust, not Surveillance, is the Basis of a Stable Society

Peaceful citizens and hard-working taxpayers are under government surveillance. Confidential communication of journalists is intercepted. Civilians are killed by drones, without a chance to prove their innocence. How could it come that far? And what are the alternatives?

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Economics 2.0: The Natural Step towards A Self-Regulating, Participatory Market Society

Despite all our great advances in science, technology and financial innovations, many societies today are struggling with a financial, economic and public spending crisis, over-regulation, and mass unemployment, as well as lack of sustainability and innovation. Can we still rely on conventional economic thinking or do we need a new approach? I argue that, as the complexity of socio-economic systems increases, networked decision-making and bottom-up self-regulation will be more and more important features. It will be explained why, besides the "homo economicus" with strictly self-regarding preferences, natural selection has also created a "homo socialis" with other-regarding preferences. While the "homo economicus" optimizes the own prospects in separation, the decisions of the "homo socialis" are self-determined, but interconnected, a fact that may be characterized by the term "networked minds". Notably, the "homo socialis" manages to earn higher payoffs than the "homo economicus". I show that the "homo economicus" and the "homo socialis" imply a different kind of dynamics and distinct aggregate outcomes. Therefore, next to the traditional economics for the "homo economicus" ("economics 1.0"), a complementary theory must be developed for the "homo socialis". This economic theory might be called "economics 2.0" or "socionomics". The names are justified, because the Web 2.0 is currently promoting a transition to a new market organization, which benefits from social media platforms and could be characterized as "participatory market society". To thrive, the "homo socialis" requires suitable institutional settings such a particular kinds of reputation systems, which will be sketched in this paper. I also propose a new kind of money, so-called "qualified money", which may overcome some of the problems of our current financial system.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Google as God? Opportunities and Risks of the Information Age

If God did not exist - people would invent one. The development of human civilization requires mechanisms promoting cooperation and social order. One of these mechanisms is based on the idea that everything we do is seen and judged by God - bad deeds will be punished, while good ones will be rewarded. The Information Age has now fueled the dream that God-like omniscience and omnipotence can be created by man.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

How Natural Selection Can Create Both Self- and Other-Regarding Preferences, and Networked Minds

Biological competition is widely believed to result in the evolution of selfish preferences. The related concept of the `homo economicus' is at the core of mainstream economics. However, there is also experimental and empirical evidence for other-regarding preferences. Here we present a theory that explains both, self-regarding and other-regarding preferences. Assuming conditions promoting non-cooperative behaviour, we demonstrate that intergenerational migration determines whether evolutionary competition results in a `homo economicus' (showing self-regarding preferences) or a `homo socialis' (having other-regarding preferences). Our model assumes spatially interacting agents playing prisoner's dilemmas, who inherit a trait determining `friendliness', but mutations tend to undermine it. Reproduction is ruled by fitness-based selection without a cultural modification of reproduction rates. Our model calls for a complementary economic theory for `networked minds' (the `homo socialis') and lays the foundations for an evolutionarily grounded theory of other-regarding agents, explaining individually different utility functions as well as conditional cooperation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Introduction: The FuturICT Knowledge Accelerator Towards a More Resilient and Sustainable Future

The FuturICT project is a response to the European Flagship Call in the Area of Future and Emerging Technologies, which is planning to spend 1 billion EUR on each of two flagship projects over a period of 10 years. FuturICT seeks to create an open, global but decentralized, democratically controlled information platform that will use online data and real-time measurements together with novel theoretical models and experimental methods to achieve a paradigm shift in our understanding of today's strongly interdependent and complex world and make our techno-socio-economic systems more flexible, adaptive, resilient, sustainable, and livable through a participatory approach.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

A planetary nervous system for social mining and collective awareness

We present a research roadmap of a Planetary Nervous System (PNS), capable of sensing and mining the digital breadcrumbs of human activities and unveiling the knowledge hidden in the big data for addressing the big questions about social complexity. We envision the PNS as a globally distributed, self-organizing, techno-social system for answering analytical questions about the status of world-wide society, based on three pillars: social sensing, social mining, and the idea of trust networks and privacy-aware social mining. We discuss the ingredients of a science and a technology necessary to build the PNS upon the three mentioned pillars, beyond the limitations of their respective state-of-art. Social sensing is aimed at developing better methods for harvesting the big data from the techno-social ecosystem and make them available for mining, learning and analysis at a properly high abstraction level.Social mining is the problem of discovering patterns and models of human behaviour from the sensed data across the various social dimensions by data mining, machine learning and social network analysis. Trusted networks and privacy-aware social mining is aimed at creating a new deal around the questions of privacy and data ownership empowering individual persons with full awareness and control on own personal data, so that users may allow access and use of their data for their own good and the common good. The PNS will provide a goal-oriented knowledge discovery framework, made of technology and people, able to configure itself to the aim of answering questions about the pulse of global society. Given an analytical request, the PNS activates a process composed by a variety of interconnected tasks exploiting the social sensing and mining methods within the transparent ecosystem provided by the trusted network.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2013

The FuturICT Education Accelerator

Education is a major force for economic and social wellbeing. Despite high aspirations, education at all levels can be expensive and ineffective. Three Grand Challenges are identified: (1) enable people to learn orders of magnitude more effectively, (2) enable people to learn at orders of magnitude less cost, and (3) demonstrate success by exemplary interdisciplinary education in complex systems science. A ten year `man-on-the-moon' project is proposed in which FuturICT's unique combination of Complexity, Social and Computing Sciences could provide an urgently needed transdisciplinary language for making sense of educational systems. In close dialogue with educational theory and practice, and grounded in the emerging data science and learning analytics paradigms, this will translate into practical tools (both analytical and computational) for researchers, practitioners and leaders; generative principles for resilient educational ecosystems; and innovation for radically scalable, yet personalised, learner engagement and assessment. The proposed {\em Education Accelerator} will serve as a `wind tunnel' for testing these ideas in the context of real educational programmes, with an international virtual campus delivering complex systems education exploiting the new understanding of complex, social, computationally enhanced organisational structure developed within FuturICT.

physics.ed-ph↗