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Dominik Kreiss

Publications and source records attributed to Dominik Kreiss.

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Beyond Differences: Doubly Robust Meta-Learners for Ratio-Based Treatment Effects

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $τ(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes $τ(x)$ into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes to two propensity classification tasks. We further derive doubly robust augmentations for both S/T- and Q-style ratio learners and characterize their distinct robustness properties. In benchmarks on seven RCT datasets, the Q-Learner is the most consistently competitive method in low-conversion regimes, where its propensity-only construction sidesteps the imbalanced regression that hurts outcome-based estimators. On four observational datasets, where propensity must be estimated and confounding cannot be ruled out, the DR learners introduced here decisively come out on top, making them practitioners' natural default for confounded observational data.

stat.ML

Consideration Set Sampling to Analyze Undecided Respondents

Researchers in psychology characterize decision-making as a process of eliminating options. While statistical modelling typically focuses on the eventual choice, we analyze consideration sets describing, for each survey participant, all options between which the respondent is pondering. Using a German pre-election poll as a prototypical example, we give a proof of concept that consideration set sampling is easy to implement and provides the basis for an insightful structural analysis of the respondents' positions. The set-valued observations forming the consideration sets are naturally modelled as random sets, allowing to transfer regression modelling as

stat.ME

Towards a Paradigmatic Shift in Pre-election Polling Adequately Including Still Undecided Voters -- Some Ideas Based on Set-Valued Data for the 2021 German Federal Election

Within this paper we develop and apply new methodology adequately including undecided voters for the 2021 German federal election. Due to a cooperation with the polling institute Civey, we are in the fortunate position to obtain data in which undecided voters can state all the options they are still pondering between. In contrast to conventional polls, forcing the undecided to either state a single party or to drop out, this design allows the undecided to provide their current position in an accurate and precise way. The resulting set-valued information can be used to examine structural properties of groups undecided between specific parties as well as to improve election forecasting. For forecasting, this partial information provides valuable additional knowledge, and the uncertainty induced by the participants' ambiguity can be conveyed within interval-valued results. Turning to coalitions of parties, which is in the core of the current public discussion in Germany, some of this uncertainty can be dissolved as the undecided provide precise information on corresponding coalitions. We show structural differences between the decided and undecided with discrete choice models as well as elaborate the discrepancy between the conventional approach and our new ones including the undecided. Our cautious analysis further demonstrates that in most cases the undecideds' eventual decisions are pivotal which coalitions could hold a majority of seats. Overall, accounting for the populations' ambiguity leads to more credible results and paints a more holistic picture of the political landscape, pathing the way for a possible paradigmatic shift concerning the adequate inclusion of undecided voters in pre-election polls.

stat.ME