arXiv subjects

Elisa Bortolas

Publications and source records attributed to Elisa Bortolas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Emulating the complex galactic-scale orbital dynamics of LISA massive black hole pairs with normalizing flows

Massive black hole (MBH) pairs, formed in galaxy mergers, may coalesce in a burst of gravitational waves. Estimating the coalescence time-scales and rates is a long-standing astrophysical problem, essential to inform predictions for future gravitational-wave detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, but remains challenging: MBH orbital decay in realistic galactic environments is complex and stochastic, and non-axisymmetric structures such as stellar bars can perturb MBH pair dynamics, delaying or accelerating binary formation and undermining the assumption that dynamical friction alone sets the inspiral duration. Capturing this evolution requires simulations too expensive to run at population scale. Here we present an artificial-intelligence framework that emulates the galactic-scale orbital decay of an inspiralling MBH using conditional normalizing flows trained on a large suite of semi-analytical orbital integrations. Our model captures the evolution of secondary MBHs orbiting within multi-component galactic merger remnants featuring rotating stellar discs and bars, across a broad range of MBH masses, orbital configurations, and bar properties. The trained emulator reproduces the simulations' decay-time distributions while reducing computational cost by orders of magnitude. For the first time, we apply this model to galaxy populations drawn from a cosmological simulation, exploiting morphological information on barred and non-barred galaxies to infer MBH binary formation time-scales across cosmic time. Our results show that stellar bars can alter the distribution of MBH binary formation times. More broadly, this demonstrates how simulation-based, surrogate machine-learning emulators can unlock a class of astrophysical problems where the physics is well understood system-by-system but intractable at scale.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Realistic consecutive galaxy mergers form eccentric PTA sources

Results from pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) show evidence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) consistent with a population of unresolved supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). The observed spectrum shows a flattening at lower frequencies that can be explained by a population of eccentric BHBs. This study aims to determine the dynamical evolution and merger timescales of the most massive BHBs, which are potential sources of the GWB. We select successive galactic major mergers from the IllustrisTNG100-1 cosmological simulation and re-simulate them at high resolution with the N-body code Griffin, down to binary separations of the order of a parsec. Coalescence timescales are estimated using a semi-analytical model that incorporates gravitational wave emission and stellar hardening. Throughout our investigation, we consider the impact of prior mergers on the remnant galaxy in the form of core scouring and anisotropy, which can influence the subsequent formation and evolution of BHBs. We find that all the binaries in our sample enter the PTA band with an eccentricity e>0.85: such a large eccentricity can impact the shape of the PTA observed GWB spectrum, and it highlights the importance of including the eccentricity of binaries when interpreting the PTA signal. Furthermore, we find that: (i) starting from initial separations of a few tens of kpcs, the dynamical friction phase lasts for a few hundred Myrs; (ii) the binary formation time is not resolution dependent; (iii) the scatter on the eccentricity at binary formation decreases with increasing resolution; (iv) triple systems form whenever a third galaxy interacts with a binary which hasn't yet reached coalescence.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The Science of the Einstein Telescope

Einstein Telescope (ET) is the European project for a gravitational-wave (GW) observatory of third-generation. In this paper we present a comprehensive discussion of its science objectives, providing state-of-the-art predictions for the capabilities of ET in both geometries currently under consideration, a single-site triangular configuration or two L-shaped detectors. We discuss the impact that ET will have on domains as broad and diverse as fundamental physics, cosmology, early Universe, astrophysics of compact objects, physics of matter in extreme conditions, and dynamics of stellar collapse. We discuss how the study of extreme astrophysical events will be enhanced by multi-messenger observations. We highlight the ET synergies with ground-based and space-borne GW observatories, including multi-band investigations of the same sources, improved parameter estimation, and complementary information on astrophysical or cosmological mechanisms obtained combining observations from different frequency bands. We present advancements in waveform modeling dedicated to third-generation observatories, along with open tools developed within the ET Collaboration for assessing the scientific potentials of different detector configurations. We finally discuss the data analysis challenges posed by third-generation observatories, which will enable access to large populations of sources and provide unprecedented precision.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Hierarchical Bayesian inference on an analytical model of the LISA massive black hole binary population

Massive black hole binary (MBHB) mergers will be detectable in large numbers by the Lisa Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), which will thus provide new insights on how they form via repeated dark matter (DM) halo and galaxy mergers. Here we present a simple analytical model to generate a population of MBHB mergers based on a theoretical prescription that connects them to DM halo mergers. The high flexibility of our approach allows us to explore the broad and uncertain range of MBH seeding and growth mechanisms, as well as the different effects behind the interplay between MBH and galactic astrophysics. Such a flexibility is fundamental for the successful implementation and optimisation of the hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation approach that here we apply to the MBHB population of LISA for the first time. Our inferred population hyper-parameters are chosen as proxies to characterise the MBH--DM halo mass scaling relation, the occupation fraction of MBHs in DM halos and the delay between halo and MBHB mergers. We find that LISA will provide tight constraints at the lower-end of the MBH-halo scaling relation, well complementing EM observations which are biased towards large masses. Furthermore, our results suggest that LISA will constrain some features of the MBH occupation fraction at high redshift, as well as merger time delays of the order of a few hundreds of Myr, opening the possibility to constrain dynamical evolution time scales such as the dynamical friction. The analysis presented here constitutes a first attempt at developing a hierarchical Bayesian inference approach to the LISA MBHB population, opening the way for several further improvements and investigations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

An effective model for the tidal disruption of satellites undergoing minor mergers with axisymmetric primaries

According to the hierarchical formation paradigm, galaxies form through mergers of smaller entities and massive black holes (MBHs), if lurking at their centers, migrate to the nucleus of the newly formed galaxy, where they form binary systems. The formation and evolution of MBH binaries, and in particular their coalescence timescale, is very relevant for current and future facilities aimed at detecting the gravitational-wave signal produced by the MBH close to coalescence. While most of the studies targeting this process are based on hydrodynamic simulations, the high computational cost makes a complete parameter space exploration prohibitive. Semi-analytic approaches represent a valid alternative, but they require ad-hoc prescriptions for the mass loss of the merging galaxies in minor mergers due to tidal stripping, which is not commonly considered or at most modelled assuming very idealised geometries. In this work, we propose a novel, effective model for the tidal stripping in axisymmetric potentials, to be implemented in semi-analytic models. We validate our semi-analytic approach against N-body simulations considering different galaxy sizes, inclinations, and eccentricities, finding only a moderate dependence on the orbit eccentricity. In particular, we find that, for almost circular orbits, our model mildly overestimates the mass loss, and this is due to the adjustment of the stellar distribution after the mass is removed. Nonetheless, the model exhibits a very good agreement with simulations in all the considered conditions, and thus represents an extremely powerful addition to semi-analytic calculations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Eccentricity evolution of PTA sources from cosmological initial conditions

Recent results from pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) show evidence for a gravitational wave background (GWB) consistent with a population of unresolved supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries (BHBs). While the data do not yet constrain the slope of the spectrum, this appears to flatten at the lowest frequencies, deviating from the power-law shape expected for circular binaries evolving solely due to gravitational wave (GW) emission. Interestingly, such flattening can be explained with a population of eccentric rather than circular binaries. The eccentricity of BHBs is notoriously difficult to predict based simply on the parameters of the host galaxies and the initial galactic orbit, as it is subject to stochastic effects. We study the evolution of the eccentricity of BHBs formed in galactic mergers with cosmological initial conditions from pairing to coalescence, with a focus on potential PTA sources. We select galactic mergers from the IllustrisTNG100-1 simulation and re-simulate them at high resolution with the N-body code Griffin down to binary separations of the order of a parsec. We then estimate coalescence timescales with a semi-analytical model of the evolution under the effects of GW emission and stellar hardening. We find that most mergers in IllustrisTNG100-1 occur on highly eccentric orbits, and that the eccentricity of BHBs at binary formation correlates with the initial eccentricity of the merger, if this is no larger than approximately 0.9. For extremely eccentric mergers, the binaries tend to form with modest eccentricities. We discuss the implications of these results on the interpretation of the observed GWB.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

The Lunar Gravitational-wave Antenna: Mission Studies and Science Case

The Lunar Gravitational-wave Antenna (LGWA) is a proposed array of next-generation inertial sensors to monitor the response of the Moon to gravitational waves (GWs). Given the size of the Moon and the expected noise produced by the lunar seismic background, the LGWA would be able to observe GWs from about 1 mHz to 1 Hz. This would make the LGWA the missing link between space-borne detectors like LISA with peak sensitivities around a few millihertz and proposed future terrestrial detectors like Einstein Telescope or Cosmic Explorer. In this article, we provide a first comprehensive analysis of the LGWA science case including its multi-messenger aspects and lunar science with LGWA data. We also describe the scientific analyses of the Moon required to plan the LGWA mission.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Repeating partial disruptions and two-body relaxation

Two-body relaxation may drive stars onto near-radial orbits around a massive black hole, resulting in a tidal disruption event (TDE). In some circumstances, stars are unlikely to undergo a single terminal disruption, but rather to have a sequence of many grazing encounters with the black hole. It has long been unclear what is the physical outcome of this sequence: each of these encounters can only liberate a small amount of stellar mass, but may significantly alter the orbit of the star. We study the phenomenon of repeating partial tidal disruptions (pTDEs) by building a semi-analytical model that accounts for mass loss and tidal excitation. In the empty loss cone regime, where two-body relaxation is weak, we estimate the number of consecutive partial disruptions that a star can undergo, on average, before being significantly affected by two-body encounters. We find that in this empty loss cone regime, a star will be destroyed in a sequence of weak pTDEs, possibly explaining the tension between the low observed TDE rate and its higher theoretical estimates.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Searching for Intermediate Mass Black Holes in Globular Clusters Through Tidal Disruption Events

Intermediate mass black holes (IMBHs) may be the link between stellar mass holes and the supermassive variety in the nuclei of galaxies, and globular clusters (GCs) may be one of the most promising environments for their formation. Here we carry out a pilot study of the observability of tidal disruption events (TDEs) from 10^3 Msun < M_BH < 10^5 Msun IMBHs embedded in stellar cusps at the center of GCs. We model the long super-Eddington accretion phase and ensuing optical flare, and derive the disruption rate of main-sequence stars as a function of black hole mass and GC properties with the help of a 1D Fokker-Planck approach. The photospheric emission of the adiabatically expanding outflow dominates the observable radiation and peaks in the NUV/optical bands, outshining the brightness of the (old) stellar population of GCs in Virgo for a period of months to years. A search for TDE events in a sample of nearly 4,000 GCs observed at multiple epochs by the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS) yields null results. Given our model predictions, this sample is too small to set stringent constraints on the present-day occupation fraction of GCs hosting IMBHs. Naturally, better simulations of the properties of the cluster central stellar distribution, TDE light curves and rates, together with larger surveys of GCs are all needed to gain deeper insights into the presence of IMBHs in GCs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Partial stellar tidal disruption events and their rates

Tidal disruption events (TDEs) of stars operated by massive black holes (MBHs) will be detected in thousands by upcoming facilities such as the Vera Rubin Observatory. In this work, we assess the rates of standard total TDEs, destroying the entire star, and partial TDEs, in which a stellar remnant survives the interaction, by solving 1-D Fokker-Planck equations. Our rate estimates are based on a novel definition of the loss cone whose size is commensurate to the largest radius at which partial disruptions can occur, as motivated by relativistic hydrodynamical simulations. Our novel approach unveils two important results. First, partial TDEs can be more abundant than total disruptions by a factor of a few to a few tens. Second, the rates of complete stellar disruptions can be overestimated by a factor of a few to a few tens if one neglects partial TDEs, as we find that many of the events classified at total disruptions in the standard framework are in fact partial TDEs. Accounting for partial TDEs is particularly relevant for galaxies harbouring a nuclear stellar cluster featuring many events coming from the empty loss cone. Based on these findings, we stress that partial disruptions should be considered when constraining the luminosity function of TDE flares; accounting for this may reconcile the theoretically estimated TDE rates with the observed ones.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Quasi-periodic eruptions from impacts between the secondary and a rigidly precessing accretion disc in an extreme mass-ratio inspiral system

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) represent a recently discovered example of extreme X-ray variability associated with supermassive black holes. These are high-amplitude bursts recurring every few hours that are detected in the soft X-ray band from the nuclei of nearby galaxies whose optical spectra lack the broad emission lines typically observed in unobscured active galaxies. The physical origin of this new X-ray variability phenomenon is still unknown and several theoretical models have been presented. However, no attempt has been made so far to account for the varying QPE recurrence time and luminosity in individual sources, nor for the diversity of the QPE phenomenology in the different known erupters. We present a semi-analytical model based on an extreme mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) system where the secondary intersects, along its orbit, a rigidly precessing accretion disc surrounding the primary. We assume that QPEs result from emission from an adiabatically expanding, initially optically thick gas cloud expelled from the disc plane at each impact. We produced synthetic X-ray light curves, which we then compared with X-ray data from four QPE sources: GSN 069, eRO-QPE1, eRO-QPE2, and RX J1301.9+2747. Our model aptly reproduces the diversity of QPE properties between the considered objects and it is also able to naturally account for the varying QPE amplitudes and recurrence times in individual sources. Future implementations will enable us to refine the match with the data and to estimate the system parameters precisely, making additional use of multi-epoch QPE data. We briefly discuss the nature of the secondary object, as well as the possible implications of our findings for the EMRI population at large.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Astrophysics with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be a transformative experiment for gravitational wave astronomy, and, as such, it will offer unique opportunities to address many key astrophysical questions in a completely novel way. The synergy with ground-based and space-born instruments in the electromagnetic domain, by enabling multi-messenger observations, will add further to the discovery potential of LISA. The next decade is crucial to prepare the astrophysical community for LISA's first observations. This review outlines the extensive landscape of astrophysical theory, numerical simulations, and astronomical observations that are instrumental for modeling and interpreting the upcoming LISA datastream. To this aim, the current knowledge in three main source classes for LISA is reviewed; ultracompact stellar-mass binaries, massive black hole binaries, and extreme or intermediate mass ratio inspirals. The relevant astrophysical processes and the established modeling techniques are summarized. Likewise, open issues and gaps in our understanding of these sources are highlighted, along with an indication of how LISA could help making progress in the different areas. New research avenues that LISA itself, or its joint exploitation with upcoming studies in the electromagnetic domain, will enable, are also illustrated. Improvements in modeling and analysis approaches, such as the combination of numerical simulations and modern data science techniques, are discussed. This review is intended to be a starting point for using LISA as a new discovery tool for understanding our Universe.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Optical follow-up of the tick-tock massive black hole binary candidate

The observation of a population of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) is key for our complete understanding of galaxy mergers and for the characterization of the expected gravitational waves (GWs) signal. However, MBHBs still remain elusive with only a few candidates proposed to date. Among these, SDSSJ143016.05+230344.4 ('tick-tock' hereafter) is the only candidate with a remarkably well sampled light curve showing a clear reduction of the modulation period and amplitude over three years of observations. This particular feature has been recently claimed to be the signature of a MBHB that is about to merge. In this paper, we provide an optical follow-up of the tick-tock source using the Rapid Eye Mount (REM) telescope. The decreasing luminosity observed in our follow up is hardly explained within the binary scenario. We speculate about an alternative scenario that might explain the observed light curve through relativistic Lense-Thirring precession of an accretion disc around a single massive black hole.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Extreme mass ratio inspirals and tidal disruption events in nuclear clusters. I. Time dependent rates

In this paper we develop a computationally efficient, two-population, time-dependent Fokker-Plank approach in the two dimensions of energy and angular momentum to study the rates of tidal disruption events (TDEs), extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) and direct plunges occurring around massive black holes (MBHs) in galactic nuclei. We test our code by exploring a wide range of the astrophysically relevant parameter space, including MBH masses, galaxy central densities and inner density slopes. We find that mass segregation and, more in general, the time dependency of the distribution function regulate the event rate: TDEs always decline with time, whereas EMRIs and plunges reach a maximum and undergo a subsequent nearly exponential decay. Once suitably normalized, the rates associated to different choices of MBH mass and galaxy density overlap nearly perfectly. Based on this, we provide a simple scaling that allows to reproduce the time-dependent event rates for any MBH mass and underlying galactic nucleus. Although our peak rates are in general agreement with the literature relying on the steady-state (non-time dependent) assumption, those can be sustained on a timescale that strongly depends on the properties of the system. In particular this can be much shorter than a Gyr for relatively light MBHs residing in dense systems. This warns against using steady state models to compute global TDE, EMRI and plunge rates and calls for a more sophisticated, time dependent treatment of the problem.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The role of bars on the dynamical-friction driven inspiral of massive perturbers

In this paper, we systematically explore the impact of a galactic bar on the inspiral time-scale of a massive object (MO) within a Milky Way-like galaxy. We integrate the orbit of MOs in a multi-component galaxy model via a semi-analytical approach that accounts for dynamical friction generalized to rotationally supported backgrounds. We compare the MO evolution in a galaxy featuring a Milky Way-like rotating bar to the evolution within an analogous axisymmetric galaxy without the bar. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the bar presence may significantly affect the inspiral, sometimes making it shorter by a factor of a few, sometimes hindering it for a Hubble time. The erratic behaviour is mainly impacted by the relative phase at which the MO encounters the stronger bar-induced resonances. In particular, the effect of the bar is more prominent for initially in-plane, prograde MOs, especially those crossing the bar co-rotation radius or outer Lindblad resonance. In the barred galaxy, we find the sinking of the most massive MOs (>~10^7.5 Msun) approaching the galaxy from large separations (>~8 kpc) to be most efficiently hampered. Neglecting the effect of global torques associated with the non-symmetric mass distribution is thus not advisable even within an idealized, smooth galaxy model; we further note that spiral patterns are unlikely to affect the inspiral due to their transient and fluctuating nature. We speculate that the sinking efficiency of massive black holes involved in minor galaxy mergers may be hampered in barred galaxies, making them less likely to host a gravitational wave signal accessible to low-frequency detectors.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Tidal disruption events in post-starburst galaxies: the importance of a complete stellar mass function

A tidal disruption event (TDE) occurs when a star is destroyed by the strong tidal shear of a massive black hole (MBH). The accumulation of TDE observations over the last years has revealed that post-starburst galaxies are significantly overrepresented in the sample of TDE hosts. Here we address the post-starburst preference by investigating the decline of TDE rates in a Milky-Way like nuclear stellar cluster featuring either a monochromatic (1 M$\odot$) or a complete, evolved stellar mass function. In the former case, the decline of TDE rates with time is very mild, and generally up to a factor of a few in 10 Gyr. Conversely, if a complete mass function is considered, a strong TDE burst over the first 0.1-1 Gyr is followed by a considerable rate drop, by at least an order of magnitude over 10 Gyr. The decline starts after a mass segregation time-scale, and it is more pronounced assuming a more top-heavy initial mass function and/or an initially denser nucleus. Our results thus suggest that the post-starburst preference can be accounted for in realistic systems featuring a complete stellar mass function, even in moderately dense galactic nuclei. Overall, our findings support the idea that starbursting galactic nuclei are characterized by a top-heavy initial mass function; we speculate that accounting for this can reconcile the discrepancy between observed and theoretically predicted TDE rates even in quiescent galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Eccentricity evolution of massive black hole binaries from formation to coalescence

Coalescing supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs) are expected to be the loudest sources of gravitational waves (GWs) in the Universe. Detection rates for ground or space-based detectors based on cosmological simulations and semi-analytic models are highly uncertain. A major difficulty stems from the necessity to model the BHB from the scale of the merger to that of inspiral. Of particular relevance to the GW merger timescale is the binary eccentricity. Here we present a self-consistent numerical study of the eccentricity of BHBs formed in massive gas-free mergers from the early stages of the merger to the hardening phase, followed by a semi-analytical model down to coalescence. We find that the early eccentricity of the unbound black hole pair is largely determined by the initial orbit. It systematically decreases during the dynamical friction phase. The eccentricity at binary formation is affected by stochasticity and noise owing to encounters with stars, but preserves a strong correlation with the initial orbital eccentricity. Binding of the black holes is a phase characterised by strong perturbations, and we present a quantitative definition of the time of binary formation. During hardening the eccentricity increases in minor mergers, unless the binary is approximately circular, but remains largely unchanged in major mergers, in agreement with predictions from semi-analytical models based on isotropic scattering experiments. Coalescence times due to hardening and GW emission in gas-poor non-rotating ellipticals are <~0.5 Gyr for the large initial eccentricities (0.5 < e < 0.9) typical of galaxy mergers in cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.GA↗