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Erhan Bayraktar

Publications and source records attributed to Erhan Bayraktar.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
arXiv2025

Near Optimal Approximations and Finite Memory Policies for POMPDs with Continuous Spaces

We study an approximation method for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with continuous spaces. Belief MDP reduction, which has been the standard approach to study POMDPs requires rigorous approximation methods for practical applications, due to the state space being lifted to the space of probability measures. Generalizing recent work, in this paper we present rigorous approximation methods via discretizing the observation space and constructing a fully observed finite MDP model using a finite length history of the discrete observations and control actions. We show that the resulting policy is near-optimal under some regularity assumptions on the channel, and under certain controlled filter stability requirements for the hidden state process. Furthermore, by quantizing the measurements, we are able to utilize refined filter stability conditions. We also provide a Q learning algorithm that uses a finite memory of discretized information variables, and prove its convergence to the optimality equation of the finite fully observed MDP constructed using the approximation method.

math.OC↗
arXiv2025

Convergence Rate of Particle System for Second-order PDEs On Wasserstein Space

In this paper, we provide a convergence rate for particle approximations of a class of second-order PDEs on Wasserstein space. We show that, up to some error term, the infinite-dimensional inf(sup)-convolution of the finite-dimensional value function yields a super (sub)-viscosity solution to the PDEs on Wasserstein space. Hence, we obtain a convergence rate using a comparison principle of such PDEs on Wasserstein space. Our argument is purely analytic and relies on the regularity of value functions established in \cite{DaJaSe23}.

math.AP↗
arXiv2025

Viscosity Solutions of Fully second-order HJB Equations in the Wasserstein Space

In this paper, we show that the value functions of mean field control problems with common noise are the unique viscosity solutions to fully second-order Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, in a Crandall-Lions-like framework. We allow the second-order derivative in measure to be state-dependent and thus infinite-dimensional, rather than derived from a finite-dimensional operator, hence the term ''fully''. Our argument leverages the construction of smooth approximations from particle systems developed by Cosso, Gozzi, Kharroubi, Pham, and Rosestolato [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc., 2023], and the compactness argument via penalization of measure moments in Soner and Yan [Appl. Math. Optim., 2024]. Our work addresses unbounded dynamics and state-dependent common noise volatility, and to our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind in the literature.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Binomial-tree approximation for time-inconsistent stopping

For time-inconsistent stopping in a one-dimensional diffusion setup, we investigate how to use discrete-time models to approximate the original problem. In particular, we consider the value function $V(\cdot)$ induced by all mild equilibria in the continuous-time problem, as well as the value $V^h(\cdot)$ associated with the equilibria in a binomial-tree setting with time step size $h$. We show that $\lim_{h\rightarrow 0+} V^h \leq V$. We provide an example showing that the exact convergence may fail. Then we relax the set of equilibria and consider the value $V^h_{\varepsilon}(\cdot)$ induced by $\varepsilon$-equilibria in the binomial-tree model. We prove that $\lim_{\varepsilon \rightarrow 0+}\lim_{h \rightarrow 0+}V^h_{\varepsilon} = V$.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Relaxed Equilibria for Time-Inconsistent Markov Decision Processes

This paper considers an infinite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) that allows for general non-exponential discount functions, in both discrete and continuous time. Due to the inherent time inconsistency, we look for a randomized equilibrium policy (i.e., relaxed equilibrium) in an intra-personal game between an agent's current and future selves. When we modify the MDP by entropy regularization, a relaxed equilibrium is shown to exist by a nontrivial entropy estimate. As the degree of regularization diminishes, the entropy-regularized MDPs approximate the original MDP, which gives the general existence of a relaxed equilibrium in the limit by weak convergence arguments. As opposed to prior studies that consider only deterministic policies, our existence of an equilibrium does not require any convexity (or concavity) of the controlled transition probabilities and reward function. Interestingly, this benefit of considering randomized policies is unique to the time-inconsistent case.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Sequential optimal contracting in continuous time

In this paper we study a principal-agent problem in continuous time with multiple lump-sum payments (contracts) paid at different deterministic times. We reduce the non-zero sum Stackelberg game between the principal and agent to a standard stochastic optimal control problem. We apply our result to a benchmark model for which we investigate how different inputs (payment frequencies, payments' distribution, discounting factors, agent's reservation utility) affect the principal's value and agent's optimal compensations.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Comparison of viscosity solutions for a class of second order PDEs on the Wasserstein space

We prove a comparison result for viscosity solutions of second order parabolic partial differential equations in the Wasserstein space. The comparison is valid for semisolutions that are Lipschitz continuous in the measure in a Fourier-Wasserstein metric and uniformly continuous in time. The class of equations we consider is motivated by Mckean-Vlasov control problems with common noise and filtering problems. The proof of comparison relies on a novel version of Ishii's lemma, which is tailor-made for the class of equations we consider.

math.AP↗
arXiv2024

On Time-Inconsistency in Mean Field Games

We investigate an infinite-horizon time-inconsistent mean-field game (MFG) in a discrete time setting. We first present a classic equilibrium for the MFG and its associated existence result. This classic equilibrium aligns with the conventional equilibrium concept studied in MFG literature when the context is time-consistent. Then we demonstrate that while this equilibrium produces an approximate optimal strategy when applied to the related $N$-agent games, it does so solely in a precommitment sense. Therefore, it cannot function as a genuinely approximate equilibrium strategy from the perspective of a sophisticated agent within the $N$-agent game. To address this limitation, we propose a new consistent equilibrium concept in both the MFG and the $N$-agent game. We show that a consistent equilibrium in the MFG can indeed function as an approximate consistent equilibrium in the $N$-agent game. Additionally, we analyze the convergence of consistent equilibria for $N$-agent games toward a consistent MFG equilibrium as $N$ tends to infinity.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Generalizing Super/Sub MOT using weak $L^1$ transport

In this article we revisit the weak optimal transport (WOT) problem, introduced by Gozlan, Roberto, Samson and Tetali (2017). We work on the real line, with barycentric cost functions, and as our first result give the following characterization of the set of optimal couplings for two probability measures $μ$ and $ν$: every optimizer couples the left tails of $μ$ and $ν$ using a submartingale, the right tails using a supermartingale, while the central region is coupled using a martingale. We then consider a constrained optimal transport problem, where admissible transport plans are only those that are optimal for the WOT problem with $L^1$ costs. The constrained problem generalizes the (sub/super-) martingale optimal transport problems, studied by Beiglböck and Juillet (2016), and Nutz and Stebegg (2018) among others. Finally, we introduce a generalized \textit{shadow measure} and establish its connection to the WOT. This extends and generalizes the results obtained in (sub/super-) martingale settings.

math.PR↗
arXiv2024

Hölder regularity and roughness: construction and examples

We study how to construct a stochastic process on a finite interval with given `roughness' and finite joint moments of marginal distributions. We first extend Ciesielski's isomorphism along a general sequence of partitions, and provide a characterization of Hölder regularity of a function in terms of its Schauder coefficients. Using this characterization we provide a better (pathwise) estimator of Hölder exponent. As an additional application, we construct fake (fractional) Brownian motions with some path properties and finite moments of marginal distributions same as (fractional) Brownian motions. These belong to non-Gaussian families of stochastic processes which are statistically difficult to distinguish from real (fractional) Brownian motions.

math.PR↗
arXiv2024

Infinite Horizon Average Cost Optimality Criteria for Mean-Field Control

We study mean-field control problems in discrete-time under the infinite horizon average cost optimality criteria. We focus on both the finite population and the infinite population setups. We show the existence of a solution to the average cost optimality equation (ACOE) and the existence of optimal stationary Markov policies for finite population problems under (i) a minorization condition that provides geometric ergodicity on the collective state process of the agents, and (ii) under standard Lipschitz continuity assumptions on the stage-wise cost and transition function of the agents when the Lipschitz constant of the transition function satisfies a certain bound. For the infinite population problem, we establish the existence of a solution to the ACOE, and the existence of optimal policies under the continuity assumptions on the cost and the transition functions. Finally, we relate the finite population and infinite population control problems: (i) we prove that the optimal value of the finite population problem converges to the optimal value of the infinite population problem as the number of agents grows to infinity; (ii) we show that the accumulation points of the finite population optimal solution corresponds to an optimal solution for the infinite population problem, and finally (iii), we show that one can use the solution of the infinite population problem for the finite population problem symmetrically across the agents to achieve near optimal performance when the population is sufficiently large.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

DEX Specs: A Mean Field Approach to DeFi Currency Exchanges

We investigate the behavior of liquidity providers (LPs) by modeling a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange (DEX) based on Uniswap v3. LPs with heterogeneous characteristics choose optimal liquidity positions subject to uncertainty regarding the size of exogenous incoming transactions and the prices of assets in the wider market. They engage in a game among themselves, and the resulting liquidity distribution determines the exchange rate dynamics and potential arbitrage opportunities of the pool. We calibrate the distribution of LP characteristics based on Uniswap data and the equilibrium strategy resulting from this mean-field game produces pool exchange rate dynamics and liquidity evolution consistent with observed pool behavior. We subsequently introduce Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) bots who perform Just-In-Time (JIT) liquidity attacks, and develop a Stackelberg game between LPs and bots. This addition results in more accurate simulated pool exchange rate dynamics and stronger predictive power regarding the evolution of the pool liquidity distribution.

q-fin.TR↗
arXiv2024

Non-parametric estimates for graphon mean-field particle systems

We consider the graphon mean-field system introduced in the work of Bayraktar, Chakraborty, and Wu. It is the large-population limit of a heterogeneously interacting diffusive particle system, where the interaction is of mean-field type with weights characterized by an underlying graphon function. Through observation of continuous-time trajectories within the particle system, we construct plug-in estimators of the particle density, the drift coefficient, and thus the graphon interaction weights of the mean-field system. Our estimators for the density and drift are direct results of kernel interpolation on the empirical data, and a deconvolution method leads to an estimator of the underlying graphon function. We show that, as the number of particles increases, the graphon estimator converges to the true graphon function pointwisely, and as a consequence, in the cut metric. Besides, we conduct a minimax analysis within a particular class of particle systems to justify the pointwise optimality of the density and drift estimators.

math.ST↗
arXiv2024

Stability and Sample Complexity of Divergence Regularized Optimal Transport

We study stability and sample complexity properties of divergence regularized optimal transport (DOT). First, we obtain quantitative stability results for optimizers of DOT measured in Wasserstein distance, which are applicable to a wide class of divergences and simultaneously improve known results for entropic optimal transport. Second, we study the case of sample complexity, where the DOT problem is approximated using empirical measures of the marginals. We show that divergence regularization can improve the corresponding convergence rate compared to unregularized optimal transport. To this end, we prove upper bounds which exploit both the regularity of cost function and divergence functional, as well as the intrinsic dimension of the marginals. Along the way, we establish regularity properties of dual optimizers of DOT, as well as general limit theorems for empirical measures with suitable classes of test functions.

math.OC↗
arXiv2024

Deep Signature Algorithm for Multi-dimensional Path-Dependent Options

In this work, we study the deep signature algorithms for path-dependent options. We extend the backward scheme in [Huré-Pham-Warin. Mathematics of Computation 89, no. 324 (2020)] for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections to path-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, by adding the signature layer to the backward scheme. Our algorithm applies to both European and American type option pricing problems while the payoff function depends on the whole paths of the underlying forward stock process. We prove the convergence analysis of our numerical algorithm with explicit dependence on the truncation order of the signature and the neural network approximation errors. Numerical examples for the algorithm are provided including: Amerasian option under the Black-Scholes model, American option with a path-dependent geometric mean payoff function, and the Shiryaev's optimal stopping problem.

q-fin.CP↗
arXiv2023

Existence of Markov equilibrium control in discrete time

For time-inconsistent stochastic controls in discrete time and finite horizon, an open problem in Björk and Murgoci (Finance Stoch, 2014) is the existence of an equilibrium control. A nonrandomized Borel measurable Markov equilibrium policy exists if the objective is inf-compact in every time step. We provide a sufficient condition for the inf-compactness and thus existence, with costs that are lower semicontinuous (l.s.c.) and bounded from below and transition kernels that are continuous in controls under given states. The control spaces need not to be compact.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

Exponential Entropy dissipation for weakly self-consistent Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations

We study long-time dynamical behaviors of weakly self-consistent Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations. We introduce Hessian matrix conditions on mean-field kernel functions, which characterizes the exponential convergence of solutions in $L^1$ distances. The matrix condition is derived from the dissipation of a selected Lyapunov functional, namely auxiliary Fisher information functional. We verify proposed matrix conditions in examples.

math.AP↗