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Erhan Bayraktar

Publications and source records attributed to Erhan Bayraktar.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

A neural network approach to high-dimensional optimal switching problems with jumps in energy markets

We develop a backward-in-time machine learning algorithm that uses a sequence of neural networks to solve optimal switching problems in energy production, where electricity and fossil fuel prices are subject to stochastic jumps. We then apply this algorithm to a variety of energy scheduling problems, including novel high-dimensional energy production problems. Our experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm performs with accuracy and experiences linear to sub-linear slowdowns as dimension increases, demonstrating the value of the algorithm for solving high-dimensional switching problems.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

Systemic robustness: a mean-field particle system approach

This paper is concerned with the problem of budget control in a large particle system modeled by stochastic differential equations involving hitting times, which arises from considerations of systemic risk in a regional financial network. Motivated by Tang and Tsai (Ann. Probab., 46(2018), pp. 1597{1650), we focus on the number or proportion of surviving entities that never default to measure the systemic robustness. First we show that both the mean-field particle system and its limiting McKean-Vlasov equation are well-posed by virtue of the notion of minimal solutions. We then establish a connection between the proportion of surviving entities in the large particle system and the probability of default in the limiting McKean-Vlasov equation as the size of the interacting particle system N tends to infinity. Finally, we study the asymptotic efficiency of budget control in different economy regimes: the expected number of surviving entities is of constant order in a negative economy; it is of order of the square root of N in a neutral economy; and it is of order N in a positive economy where the budget's effect is negligible.

math.PR↗
arXiv2023

McKean-Vlasov equations involving hitting times: blow-ups and global solvability

This paper is concerned with the analysis of blow-ups for two McKean-Vlasov equations involving hitting times. Let $(B(t); \, t \ge 0)$ be standard Brownian motion, and $τ:= \inf\{t \ge 0: X(t) \le 0\}$ be the hitting time to zero of a given process $X$. The first equation is $X(t) = X(0) + B(t) - α\mathbb{P}(τ\le t)$. We provide a simple condition on $α$ and the distribution of $X(0)$ such that the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation has no blow-up, and thus the McKean-Vlasov dynamics is well-defined for all time $t \ge 0$. Our approach relies on a connection between the McKean-Vlasov equation and the supercooled Stefan problem, as well as several comparison principles. The second equation is $X(t) = X(0) + βt + B(t) + α\log \mathbb{P}(τ> t)$, whose Fokker-Planck equation is non-local. We prove that for $β> 0$ sufficiently large and $α$ no greater than a sufficiently small positive constant, there is no blow-up and the McKean-Vlasov dynamics is well-defined for all time $t \ge 0$. The argument is based on a new transform, which removes the non-local term, followed by a relative entropy analysis.

math.PR↗
arXiv2023

Arbitrage theory in a market of stochastic dimension

This paper studies an equity market of stochastic dimension, where the number of assets fluctuates over time. In such a market, we develop the fundamental theorem of asset pricing, which provides the equivalence of the following statements: (i) there exists a supermartingale numéraire portfolio; (ii) each dissected market, which is of a fixed dimension between dimensional jumps, has locally finite growth; (iii) there is no arbitrage of the first kind; (iv) there exists a local martingale deflator; (v) the market is viable. We also present the optional decomposition theorem, which characterizes a given nonnegative process as the wealth process of some investment-consumption strategy. Furthermore, similar results still hold in an open market embedded in the entire market of stochastic dimension, where investors can only invest in a fixed number of large capitalization stocks. These results are developed in an equity market model where the price process is given by a piecewise continuous semimartingale of stochastic dimension. Without the continuity assumption on the price process, we present similar results but without explicit characterization of the numéraire portfolio.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2023

Stochastic Control/Stopping Problem with Expectation Constraints

We study a stochastic control/stopping problem with a series of inequality-type and equality-type expectation constraints in a general non-Markovian framework. We demonstrate that the stochastic control/stopping problem with expectation constraints (CSEC) is independent of a specific probability setting and is equivalent to the constrained stochastic control/stopping problem in weak formulation (an optimization over joint laws of Brownian motion, state dynamics, diffusion controls and stopping rules on an enlarged canonical space). Using a martingale-problem formulation of controlled SDEs in spirit of \cite{Stroock_Varadhan}, we characterize the probability classes in weak formulation by countably many actions of canonical processes, and thus obtain the upper semi-analyticity of the CSEC value function. Then we employ a measurable selection argument to establish a dynamic programming principle (DPP) in weak formulation for the CSEC value function, in which the conditional expected costs act as additional states for constraint levels at the intermediate horizon. This article extends the results of \cite{Elk_Tan_2013b} to the expectation-constraint case. We extend our previous work \cite{OSEC_stopping} to the more complicated setting where the diffusion is controlled. Compared to that paper the topological properties of diffusion-control spaces and the corresponding measurability are more technically involved which complicate the arguments especially for the measurable selection for the super-solution side of DPP in the weak formulation.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

Quantifying dimensional change in stochastic portfolio theory

In this paper, we develop the theory of functional generation of portfolios in an equity market with changing dimension. By introducing dimensional jumps in the market, as well as jumps in stock capitalization between the dimensional jumps, we construct different types of self-financing stock portfolios (additive, multiplicative, and rank-based) in a very general setting. Our study explains how a dimensional change caused by a listing or delisting event of a stock, and unexpected shocks in the market, affect portfolio return. We also provide empirical analyses of some classical portfolios, quantifying the impact of dimensional change in portfolio performance relative to the market.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2023

Approximate Q-Learning for Controlled Diffusion Processes and its Near Optimality

We study a Q learning algorithm for continuous time stochastic control problems. The proposed algorithm uses the sampled state process by discretizing the state and control action spaces under piece-wise constant control processes. We show that the algorithm converges to the optimality equation of a finite Markov decision process (MDP). Using this MDP model, we provide an upper bound for the approximation error for the optimal value function of the continuous time control problem. Furthermore, we present provable upper-bounds for the performance loss of the learned control process compared to the optimal admissible control process of the original problem. The provided error upper-bounds are functions of the time and space discretization parameters, and they reveal the effect of different levels of the approximation: (i) approximation of the continuous time control problem by an MDP, (ii) use of piece-wise constant control processes, (iii) space discretization. Finally, we state a time complexity bound for the proposed algorithm as a function of the time and space discretization parameters.

math.OC↗
arXiv2023

Optimal Stopping with Expectation Constraints

We analyze an optimal stopping problem with a series of inequality-type and equality-type expectation constraints in a general non-Markovian framework. We show that the optimal stopping problem with expectation constraints (OSEC) in an arbitrary probability setting is equivalent to the constrained problem in weak formulation (optimization over joint laws of stopping rules with Brownian motion and state dynamics on an enlarged canonical space) and thus the OSEC value. Using a martingale-problem formulation, we make an equivalent characterization of the probability classes in weak formulation, which implies that the OSEC value function s upper semi-analytic. Then we exploit a measurable selection argument to establish a dynamic programming principle in weak formulation for the OSEC value function, in which the conditional expected costs act as additional states for constraint levels at the intermediate horizon.

math.OC↗
arXiv2022

Supermartingale Brenier's Theorem with full-marginals constraint

We explicitly construct the supermartingale version of the Fr{é}chet-Hoeffding coupling in the setting with infinitely many marginal constraints. This extends the results of Henry-Labordere et al. obtained in the martingale setting. Our construction is based on the Markovian iteration of one-period optimal supermartingale couplings. In the limit, as the number of iterations goes to infinity, we obtain a pure jump process that belongs to a family of local L{é}vy models introduced by Carr et al. We show that the constructed processes solve the continuous-time supermartingale optimal transport problem for a particular family of path-dependent cost functions. The explicit computations are provided in the following three cases: the uniform case, the Bachelier model and the Geometric Brownian Motion case.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

A smooth variational principle on Wasserstein space

In this note, we provide a smooth variational principle on Wasserstein space by constructing a smooth gauge-type function using the sliced Wasserstein distance. This function is a crucial tool for optimization problems and in viscosity theory of PDEs on Wasserstein space.

math.OC↗
arXiv2022

Equilibria of Time-inconsistent Stopping for One-dimensional Diffusion Processes

We consider three equilibrium concepts proposed in the literature for time-inconsistent stopping problems, including mild equilibria, weak equilibria and strong equilibria. The discount function is assumed to be log sub-additive and the underlying process is one-dimensional diffusion. We first provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the characterization of weak equilibria. The smooth-fit condition is obtained as a by-product. Next, based on the characterization of weak equilibria, we show that an optimal mild equilibrium is also weak. Then we provide conditions under which a weak equilibrium is strong. We further show that an optimal mild equilibrium is also strong under a certain condition. Finally, we provide several examples including one shows a weak equilibrium may not be strong, and another one shows a strong equilibrium may not be optimal mild.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

Graphon particle system: Uniform-in-time concentration bounds

In this paper, we consider graphon particle systems with heterogeneous mean-field type interactions and the associated finite particle approximations. Under suitable growth (resp. convexity) assumptions, we obtain uniform-in-time concentration estimates, over finite (resp. infinite) time horizon, for the Wasserstein distance between the empirical measure and its limit, extending the work of Bolley--Guillin--Villani.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

Optimal Consumption under a Habit-Formation Constraint: the Deterministic Case

We formulate and solve a deterministic optimal consumption problem to maximize the discounted CRRA utility of an individual's consumption-to-habit process assuming she only invests in a riskless market and that she is unwilling to consume at a rate below a certain proportion $α\in(0,1]$ of her consumption habit. Increasing $α$, increases the degree of addictiveness of habit formation, with $α=0$ (respectively, $α=1$) corresponding to non-addictive (respectively, completely addictive) model. We derive the optimal consumption policies explicitly in terms of the solution of a nonlinear free-boundary problem, which we analyze in detail. Impatient individuals (or, equivalently, those with more addictive habits) always consume above the minimum rate; thus, they eventually attain the minimum wealth-to-habit ratio. Patient individuals (or, equivalently, those with less addictive habits) consume at the minimum rate if their wealth-to-habit ratio is below a threshold, and above it otherwise. By consuming patiently, these individuals maintain a wealth-to-habit ratio that is greater than the minimum acceptable level. Additionally, we prove that the optimal consumption path is hump-shaped if the initial wealth-to-habit ratio is either: (1) larger than a high threshold; or (2) below a low threshold and the agent is more risk seeking (that is, less risk averse). Thus, we provide a simple explanation for the consumption hump observed by various empirical studies.

math.OC↗
arXiv2022

Graphon mean field systems

We consider heterogeneously interacting diffusive particle systems and their large population limit. The interaction is of mean field type with weights characterized by an underlying graphon. A law of large numbers result is established as the system size increases and the underlying graphons converge. The limit is given by a graphon mean field system consisting of independent but heterogeneous nonlinear diffusions whose probability distributions are fully coupled. Well-posedness, continuity and stability of such systems are provided. We also consider a not-so-dense analogue of the finite particle system, obtained by percolation with vanishing rates and suitable scaling of interactions. A law of large numbers result is proved for the convergence of such systems to the corresponding graphon mean field system.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

Stability of Time-inconsistent Stopping for One-dimensional Diffusion -- A Longer Version

We investigate the stability of the equilibrium-induced optimal value in one-dimensional diffusion setting for a time-inconsistent stopping problem under non-exponential discounting. We show that the optimal value is semi-continuous with respect to the drift, volatility, and reward function. An example is provided showing that the exact continuity may fail. With equilibria extended to $\varepsilon$-equilibria, we establish the relaxed continuity of the optimal value.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

A Central Limit Theorem for Diffusion in Sparse Random Graphs

We consider bootstrap percolation and diffusion in sparse random graphs with fixed degrees, constructed by configuration model. Every node has two states: it is either active or inactive. We assume that to each node is assigned a nonnegative (integer) threshold. The diffusion process is initiated by a subset of nodes with threshold zero which consists of initially activated nodes, whereas every other node is inactive. Subsequently, in each round, if an inactive node with threshold $θ$ has at least $θ$ of its neighbours activated, then it also becomes active and remains so forever. This is repeated until no more nodes become activated. The main result of this paper provides a central limit theorem for the final size of activated nodes. Namely, under suitable assumptions on the degree and threshold distributions, we show that the final size of activated nodes has asymptotically Gaussian fluctuations.

math.PR↗
arXiv2022

Mean field control and finite dimensional approximation for regime-switching jump diffusions

We consider a jump-diffusion mean field control problem with regime switching in the state dynamics. The corresponding value function is characterized as the unique viscosity solution of a HJB master equation on the space of probability measures. Using this characterization, we prove that the value function, which is not regular, is the limit of a finite agent centralized optimal control problem as the number of agents go to infinity, with an explicit convergence rate. Assuming in addition that the value function is smooth, we establish a quantitative propagation of chaos result for the optimal trajectory of agent states.

math.OC↗