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Eric B. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to Eric B. Ford.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Effects of Pebble Accretion Isolation Mass on Observable Exoplanet Properties

The Kepler Mission has discovered a plethora of planetary systems with super-Earth sized planets. These systems exhibit many properties, from widely-spaced planets with non-negligible eccentricities and inclinations, to tightly-spaced, coplanar, and nearly circular multi-planet systems. The observable properties of these systems, such as planet-planet spacings, multiplicity and orbital morphology, can be strongly influenced by the initial conditions of formation. These conditions affect the early growth of planetary embryos in the gas disk phase through pebble and/or planetesimal accretion, which then affects the final growth of planets during the giant impact stage. In this work, we investigate how assumptions of different limiting embryo isolation masses during early stages of planet formation affect the final properties of super-Earth planets within the inner disk, comparing our mock-observed results to each other, as well as to the Kepler sample. We test several models of pebble accretion isolation mass, including pebble isolation, flow isolation, and migration feedback isolation and otherwise adopt the same parameters for the gas disk. We find that while each model can match at least one distribution of observables in the Kepler catalog, they fall short of matching all distributions simultaneously, even with extreme reweighting. Our inability to match all observations suggests that the initial conditions and/or modeled effects in our simulations that we held fixed should be investigated. This exploration sheds light on how planetary systems evolve and the processes that influence the wide range of system parameters we observe today, helping place our own Solar System in context.

astro-ph.EP

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. IV: A Multi-planet Model for Reproducing the Radius Valley and Intra-system Size Similarity of Planets around Kepler's FGK Dwarfs

The Kepler-observed distribution of planet sizes have revealed two distinct patterns: (1) a radius valley separating super-Earths and sub-Neptunes and (2) a preference for intra-system size similarity. We present a new model for the exoplanet population observed by Kepler, which is a "hybrid" of a clustered multi-planet model in which the orbital architectures are set by the angular momentum deficit (AMD) stability (He et al. 2020; arXiv:2007.14473) and a joint mass-radius-period model involving envelope mass-loss driven by photoevaporation (Neil & Rogers 2020; arXiv:1911.03582). We find that the models that produce the deepest radius valleys have a primordial population of planets with initial radii peaking at $\sim 2.1 R_\oplus$, which is subsequently sculpted by photoevaporation into a bimodal distribution of final planet radii. The hybrid model requires strongly clustered initial planet masses in order to match the distributions of the size similarity metrics. Thus, the preference for intra-system radius similarity is well explained by a clustering in the primordial mass distribution. The hybrid model also naturally reproduces the observed radius cliff (steep drop-off beyond $\sim 2.5 R_\oplus$). Our hybrid model is the latest installment of the SysSim forward models, and is the first multi-planet model capable of simultaneously reproducing the observed radius valley and the intra-system size similarity patterns. We compute occurrence rates and fractions of stars with planets for a variety of planet types, and find that the occurrence of Venus and Earth-like planets drops by a factor of $\sim 2$-4 for the hybrid models compared to previous clustered models in which there is no envelope mass-loss.

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Are We There Yet? Challenges in Quantifying the Frequency of Earth Analogs in the Habitable Zone

Searching for life elsewhere in the universe is one of the most highly prioritized pursuits in astronomy today. However, the ability to observe evidence of Earth-like life through biosignatures is limited by the number of planets in the solar neighborhood with conditions similar to Earth. The occurrence rate of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars, $\eta_{\oplus}$, is therefore crucial for addressing the apparent lack of consensus on its value in the literature. Here we present a review of the current understanding of $\eta_{\oplus}$. We first provide definitions for parameters that contribute to $\eta_{\oplus}$. Then, we discuss the previous and current estimated parameter values and the context of the limitations on the analyses that produced these estimates. We compile an extensive list of the factors that go into any calculation of $\eta_{\oplus}$, and how detection techniques and surveys differ in their sensitivity and ability to accurately constrain $\eta_{\oplus}$. Understanding and refining the value of $\eta_{\oplus}$ is crucial for upcoming missions and telescopes, such as the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets, which aim to search for biosignatures on exoplanets in the solar neighborhood.

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Discovery of a Nearby Habitable Zone Super-Earth Candidate Amenable to Direct Imaging

We present the discovery of GJ 251 c, a candidate super-Earth orbiting in the Habitable Zone (HZ) of its M dwarf host star. Using high-precision Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) and NEID RVs, in conjunction with archival RVs from the Keck I High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer (HIRES), the Calar Alto high-Resolution search for M dwarfs with Exoearths with Near-infrared and optical Echelle Spectrograph (CARMENES), and the SPectropolarim\`etre InfraROUge (SPIRou), we improve the measured parameters of the known planet, GJ 251 b ($P_{b}$ = 14.2370 days; $m \sin(i)$ = 3.85$^{+0.35}_{-0.33}$ M$_{\oplus}$), and we significantly constrain the minimum mass of GJ 251 c, placing it in a plausibly terrestrial regime (P$_{c}$ = 53.647 $\pm$ 0.044 days; $ m \sin i_{c}$ = 3.84 $\pm$ 0.75 M$_{\oplus}$). Using activity mitigation techniques that leverage chromatic information content, we perform a color-dependent analysis of the system and a detailed comparison of more than 50 models that describe the nature of the planets and stellar activity in the system. Due to GJ 251's proximity to Earth (5.5 pc), next generation, thirty meter class telescopes will likely be able to image terrestrial planets in GJ 251's HZ. In fact, GJ 251 c is currently the best candidate for terrestrial, HZ planet imaging in the Northern Sky.

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Order-by-order Modeling of Exoplanet Radial Velocity Data

Precise radial velocity (RV) measurements are a crucial tool for exoplanet discovery and characterization. Today, the majority of these measurements are derived from Echelle spectra in the optical wavelength region using cross-correlation techniques. Although for certain stars these approaches can produce RVs with sub-1 m~s$^{-1}$ measurement errors, for many others, we are now in a regime where instrumental precision is fundamentally below the intrinsic RV variations of the star that result from astrophysical processes that can be correlated in both time and wavelength. We explore new methods for measuring exoplanet orbital parameters that take advantage of the fact that RV data sets are fundamentally multi-wavelength. By analyzing NEID extremely precise radial velocity (EPRV) data of three known exoplanet systems, we show that fitting a single Keplerian model to multi-wavelength RVs can produce a factor of 1.5 -- 6.8 better $M_p \sin i$ uncertainties compared to fitting RVs that are derived from a weighted average across wavelength.

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Searching for GEMS: The Occurrence of Giant Planets orbiting M-dwarfs within 100 pc

We present results from a systematic search for transiting short-period Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars (GEMS; $P < 10$ days, $R_p \gtrsim 8~R_\oplus$) within a distance-limited 100 pc sample of $149,316$ M-dwarfs using TESS-Gaia Light Curve (TGLC) data. We describe the development and application of the \textit{TESS-miner} package and associated vetting procedures used in this analysis. To assess detection completeness, we conducted $\sim$72 million injection-recovery tests across $\sim$26,000 stars with an average of $\sim$3 sectors of data per star, subdivided into early-type (M0--M2.5), mid-type (M2.5--M4), and late-type (M4 or later) M-dwarfs. Our pipeline demonstrates high sensitivity across all subtypes within the injection bounds. We estimate the occurrence rates of short-period GEMS as a function of stellar mass, and combine our measured rates with those derived for FGK stars, fitting an exponential trend with stellar mass, consistent with core-accretion theory predictions. We find GEMS occurrence rates of $0.118\% \pm 0.068\%$ for early-type M-dwarfs, $0.153\% \pm 0.069\%$ for mid-type, and $0.036\% \pm 0.024\%$ for late-type M-dwarfs, with a mean rate of $0.068\%\pm0.024\%$ across the full sample. While our search spanned $1.0~\mathrm{days} < P < 10.0$ days, these rates were calculated using planets orbiting with $1.0~\mathrm{days} < P < 5.0$ days. This work establishes the basis for future occurrence rate studies of transiting GEMS.

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The Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Mathematical and Physical Sciences (AI+MPS)

This community paper developed out of the NSF Workshop on the Future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Mathematical and Physics Sciences (MPS), which was held in March 2025 with the goal of understanding how the MPS domains (Astronomy, Chemistry, Materials Research, Mathematical Sciences, and Physics) can best capitalize on, and contribute to, the future of AI. We present here a summary and snapshot of the MPS community's perspective, as of Spring/Summer 2025, in a rapidly developing field. The link between AI and MPS is becoming increasingly inextricable; now is a crucial moment to strengthen the link between AI and Science by pursuing a strategy that proactively and thoughtfully leverages the potential of AI for scientific discovery and optimizes opportunities to impact the development of AI by applying concepts from fundamental science. To achieve this, we propose activities and strategic priorities that: (1) enable AI+MPS research in both directions; (2) build up an interdisciplinary community of AI+MPS researchers; and (3) foster education and workforce development in AI for MPS researchers and students. We conclude with a summary of suggested priorities for funding agencies, educational institutions, and individual researchers to help position the MPS community to be a leader in, and take full advantage of, the transformative potential of AI+MPS.

cs.AI

The NEID Earth Twin Survey. IV. Confirming an 89 d, $m\sin i=10~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ Planet Orbiting a Nearby Sun-like Star

We present the confirmation of HD 190360 d, a warm ($P=88.690^{+0.051}_{-0.049}~\mathrm{d}$), low-mass ($m\sin i=10.23^{+0.81}_{-0.80}~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$) planet orbiting the nearby ($d=16.0$ pc), Sun-like (G7) star HD 190360. We detect HD 190360 d at high statistical significance even though its radial velocity (RV) semi-amplitude is only $K=1.48\pm0.11~\mathrm{m~s^{-1}}$. Such low-amplitude signals are often challenging to confirm due to potential confusion with low-amplitude stellar signals. The HD 190360 system previously had two known planets: the $1.7~\mathrm{M_J}$ (true mass) HD 190360 b on a $7.9$ yr orbit and the $21~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ (minimum mass) HD 190360 c on a $17.1$ d orbit. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the HD 190360 planetary system that comprises more than 30 years of RV measurements and absolute astrometry from the Hipparcos and Gaia spacecrafts. Our analysis uses more than 1400 RVs, including nearly 100 from NEID. The proper motion anomaly as measured by these two astrometric missions solves for the dynamical mass of HD 190360 b and contributes to our understanding of the overall system architecture, while the long baseline of RVs enables the robust characterization of HD 190360 c and confirms the discovery of HD 190360 d.

astro-ph.EP

An Earth-Sized Planet in a 5.4h Orbit Around a Nearby K dwarf

We present the discovery and confirmation of the ultra-short period (USP) planet TOI-2431 b orbiting a nearby ($d\sim36$ pc) late K star ($T_{\mathrm{eff}}$ = $4109 \pm 28 \, {\rm K}$) using observations from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), precise radial velocities with the NEID and the Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) spectrographs, as well as ground-based high contrast imaging from NESSI. TOI-2431 b has a period of 5 hours and 22 minutes, making it one of the shortest-period exoplanets known to date. TOI-2431 b has a radius of $1.536 \pm 0.033\, \rm{R_\oplus}$, and a mass of $6.2 \pm 1.2\, \rm{M_\oplus}$, suggesting it has a density compatible with an Earth-like composition and, due to its high irradiation, is likely a 'lava-world' with a $T_{\mathrm{eq}}$ = $2063 \pm 30 \, {\rm K}$. We estimate that the current orbital period is only 30% larger than the Roche-limit orbital period, and that it has an expected orbital decay timescale of only $\sim$31 Myr. Finally, due to the brightness of the host star ($V = 10.9$, $K = 7.6$), TOI-2431 b has a high Emission Spectroscopy Metric of 27, making it one of the best USP systems for atmospheric phase-curve analysis.

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TOI-1259Ab: A Warm Jupiter Orbiting a K-dwarf White-Dwarf Binary is on a Well-aligned Orbit

The evolution of one member of a stellar binary into a white dwarf has been proposed as a mechanism that triggers the formation of close-in gas giant planets. The star's asymmetric mass loss during the AGB stage gives it a "kick" that can initiate Eccentric Lidov-Kozai oscillations, potentially causing a planet around the secondary star to migrate inwards and perturbing the eccentricity and inclination of its orbit. Here we present a measurement of the stellar obliquity of TOI-1259Ab, a gas giant in a close-in orbit around a K star with a white dwarf companion about 1650 au away. By using the NEID spectrograph to detect the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect during the planetary transit, we find the sky-projected obliquity to be $\lambda = 6^{+21}_{-22}\,^\circ$. When combined with estimates of the stellar rotation period, radius, and projected rotation velocity, we find the true 3D obliquity to be $\psi = 24^{+14}_{-12}\,^\circ$ ($\psi < 48^\circ$ at 95% confidence), revealing that the orbit of TOI-1259Ab is well aligned with the star's equatorial plane. Because the planet's orbit is too wide for tidal realignment to be expected, TOI-1259Ab might have formed quiescently in this well-aligned configuration. Alternatively, as we show with dynamical simulations, Eccentric Lidov-Kozai oscillations triggered by the evolution of the binary companion are expected to lead to a low obliquity with a probability of about $\sim$14%.

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The NEID Earth Twin Survey. III. Survey Performance After Three Years on Sky

The NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) has been delivering a rich set of precise radial velocity (RV) measurements for 41 bright, nearby main sequence stars. Here, we describe the status of the survey after three years on sky and we present the full set of RV measurements and accompanying stellar activity indicators. We discuss intermediate survey diagnostics, including calibration of the known RV zero point offset introduced following the Contreras fire in 2022 and the identification of an undiagnosed and previously unknown zero point offset in 2021. An analysis of our data set using RVSearch demonstrates that for these target stars, NEID is independently sensitive to nearly all known planets with periods shorter than the NETS observing baseline. We also highlight a number of newly detected RV signals, which present exciting opportunities for future investigations.

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Time-resolved p-mode oscillations for subgiant HD 142091 with NEID at WIYN

Detections of Earth-analog planets in radial velocity observations are limited by stellar astrophysical variability occurring on a variety of timescales. Current state-of-the-art methods to disentangle potential planet signals from intrinsic stellar signals assume that stellar signals introduce asymmetries to the line profiles that can therefore be separated from the pure translational Doppler shifts of planets. Here, we examine this assumption using a time series of resolved stellar p-mode oscillations in HD 142091 ($\kappa$ CrB), as observed on a single night with the NEID spectrograph at 2-minute cadence and with 25 cm/s precision. As an evolved subgiant star, this target has p-mode oscillations that are larger in amplitude (4-8 m/s) and occur on longer timescales (80 min.) than those of typical Sun-like stars of RV surveys, magnifying their corresponding effects on the stellar spectral profile. We show that for HD 142091, p-mode oscillations manifest primarily as pure Doppler shifts in the average line profile -- measured by the cross-correlation function (CCF) -- with "shape-driven" CCF variations as a higher-order effect. Specifically, we find that the amplitude of the shift varies across the CCF bisector, with 10% larger oscillation amplitudes closer to the core of the CCF, and 25% smaller oscillation amplitudes for bisector velocities derived near the wings; we attribute this trend to larger oscillation velocities higher in the stellar atmosphere. Using a line-by-line analysis, we verify that a similar trend is seen as a function of average line depth, with deeper lines showing larger oscillation amplitudes. Finally, we find no evidence that p-mode oscillations have a chromatic dependence across the NEID bandpass beyond that due to intrinsic line depth differences across the spectrum.

astro-ph.SR

Astrometry and Precise Radial Velocities Yield a Complete Orbital Solution for the Nearby Eccentric Brown Dwarf LHS 1610 b

The LHS 1610 system consists of a nearby ($d=9.7$ pc) M5 dwarf hosting a candidate brown dwarf companion in a $10.6$ day, eccentric ($e \sim 0.37$) orbit. We confirm this brown dwarf designation and estimate its mass ($ 49.5_{-3.5}^{+4.3}$ $M_{\text{Jup}} $) and inclination ($ 114.5^\circ$ $_{-10.0}^{+7.4}$) by combining discovery radial velocities (RVs) from TRES and new RVs from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder with the available Gaia astrometric two-body solution. We highlight a discrepancy between the measurement of the eccentricity from the Gaia two-body solution ($e=0.52 \pm 0.03$) and the RV-only solution ($e=0.3702\pm0.0003$). We discuss possible reasons for this discrepancy, which can be further probed when the Gaia astrometric time series becomes available as part of Gaia DR4. As a nearby mid-M star hosting a massive short-period companion with a well-characterized orbit, LHS 1610 b is a promising target to look for evidence of sub-Alfvénic interactions and/or auroral emission at optical and radio wavelengths. LHS 1610 has a flare rate ($0.28\pm 0.07$ flares/day) on the higher-end for its rotation period ($84 \pm 8$ days), similar to other mid-M dwarf systems such as Proxima Cen and YZ Ceti that have recent radio detections compatible with star-planet interactions. While available TESS photometry is insufficient to determine an orbital phase-dependence of the flares, our complete orbital characterization of this system makes it attractive to probe star-companion interactions with additional photometric and radio observations.

astro-ph.SR

Paths to Robust Exoplanet Science Yield Margin for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will seek to detect and characterize potentially Earth-like planets around other stars. To ensure that the mission achieves the Astro2020 Decadal's recommended goal of 25 exoEarth candidates (EECs), we must take into account the probabilistic nature of exoplanet detections and provide "science margin" to budget for astrophysical uncertainties with a reasonable level of confidence. In this study, we explore the probabilistic distributions of yields to be expected from a blind exoEarth survey conducted by such a mission. We identify and estimate the impact of all major known sources of astrophysical uncertainty on the exoEarth candidate yield. As expected, eta_Earth uncertainties dominate the uncertainty in EEC yield, but we show that sampling uncertainties inherent to a blind survey are another important source of uncertainty that should be budgeted for during mission design. We adopt the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor Design B (LUVOIR-B) as a baseline and modify the telescope diameter to estimate the science margin provided by a larger telescope. We then depart from the LUVOIR-B baseline design and identify six possible design changes that, when compiled, provide large gains in exoEarth candidate yield and more than an order of magnitude reduction in exposure times for the highest priority targets. We conclude that a combination of telescope diameter increase and design improvements could provide robust exoplanet science margins for HWO.

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Searching for Low-Mass Exoplanets Amid Stellar Variability with a Fixed Effects Linear Model of Line-by-Line Shape Changes

The radial velocity (RV) method, also known as Doppler spectroscopy, is a powerful technique for exoplanet discovery and characterization. In recent years, progress has been made thanks to the improvements in the quality of spectra from new extreme precision RV spectrometers. However, detecting the RV signals of Earth-like exoplanets remains challenging, as the spectroscopic signatures of low-mass planets can be obscured or confused with intrinsic stellar variability. Changes in the shapes of spectral lines across time can provide valuable information for disentangling stellar activity from true Doppler shifts caused by low-mass exoplanets. In this work, we present a fixed effects linear model to estimate RV signals that controls for changes in line shapes by aggregating information from hundreds of spectral lines. Our methodology incorporates a wild-bootstrap approach for modeling uncertainty and cross-validation to control for overfitting. We evaluate the model's ability to remove stellar activity using solar observations from the NEID spectrograph, as the sun's true center-of-mass motion is precisely known. Including line shape-change covariates reduces the RV root-mean-square errors by approximately 70% (from 1.919 m s$^{-1}$ to 0.575 m s$^{-1}$) relative to using only the line-by-line Doppler shifts. The magnitude of the residuals is significantly less than that from traditional CCF-based RV estimators and comparable to other state-of-the-art methods for mitigating stellar variability.

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The NEID Earth Twin Survey. I. Confirmation of a 31-day planet orbiting HD 86728

With close to three years of observations in hand, the NEID Earth Twin Survey (NETS) is starting to unearth new astrophysical signals for a curated sample of bright, radial velocity (RV)-quiet stars. We present the discovery of the first NETS exoplanet, HD 86728 b, a $m_p\sin i = 9.16^{+0.55}_{-0.56}\ \rm{M}_\oplus$ planet on a circular, $P=31.1503^{+0.0062}_{-0.0066}$ d orbit, thereby confirming a candidate signal identified by Hirsch et al. (2021). We confirm the planetary origin of the detected signal, which has a semi-amplitude of just $K=1.91^{+0.11}_{-0.12}$ m s$^{-1}$, via careful analysis of the NEID RVs and spectral activity indicators, and we constrain the mass and orbit via fits to NEID and archival RV measurements. The host star is intrinsically quiet at the $\sim1$ m s$^{-1}$ level, with the majority of this variability likely stemming from short-timescale granulation. HD 86728 b is among the small fraction of exoplanets with similar masses and periods that have no known planetary siblings.

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Updated Catalog of Kepler Planet Candidates: Focus on Accuracy and Orbital Periods

We present a new catalog of Kepler planet candidates that prioritizes accuracy of planetary dispositions and properties over uniformity. This catalog contains 4376 transiting planet candidates, including 1791 residing within 709 multi-planet systems, and provides the best parameters available for a large sample of Kepler planet candidates. We also provide a second set of stellar and planetary properties for transiting candidates that are uniformly-derived for use in occurrence rates studies. Estimates of orbital periods have been improved, but as in previous catalogs, our tabulated values for period uncertainties do not fully account for transit timing variations (TTVs). We show that many planets are likely to have TTVs with long periodicities caused by various processes, including orbital precession, and that such TTVs imply that ephemerides of Kepler planets are not as accurate on multi-decadal timescales as predicted by the small formal errors (typically 1 part in $10^6$ and rarely $ > 10^{-5}$) in the planets' measured mean orbital periods during the Kepler epoch. Analysis of normalized transit durations implies that eccentricities of planets are anti-correlated with the number of companion transiting planets. Our primary catalog lists all known Kepler planet candidates that orbit and transit only one star; for completeness, we also provide an abbreviated listing of the properties of the two dozen non-transiting planets that have been identified around stars that host transiting planets discovered by Kepler.

astro-ph.EP

Data-Driven Modeling of Telluric Features and Stellar Variability with StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl

A significant barrier to achieving the radial velocity (RV) measurement accuracy and precision required to characterize terrestrial mass exoplanets is the existence of time-variable features in the measured spectra, from both telluric absorption and stellar variability, which affect measured line shapes and can cause apparent RV shifts. Reaching the desired accuracy using traditional techniques often requires avoiding lines contaminated by stellar variability and/or changing tellurics, and thus discarding a large fraction of the spectrum, lowering precision. New data-driven methods can help achieve extremely precise and accurate RVs by enabling the use of a larger fraction of the available data. While there exist methods for modeling telluric features or the stellar variability individually, there is a need for additional tools that are capable of modeling them simultaneously at the spectral level. Here we present StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl (SSOF), a Julia package for measuring Doppler shifts and creating data-driven models (with fast, physically-motivated Gaussian Process regularization) for the time-variable spectral features for both the telluric transmission and stellar spectrum, while accounting for the wavelength-dependent instrumental line-spread function. We demonstrate SSOF's state-of-the-art performance on data from the NEID RV spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope for multiple stars. We show SSOF's, ability to accurately identify and characterize spectral variability and provide $\sim$2-6x smaller photon-limited errors over the NEID CCF-based pipeline and match the performance of SERVAL, a leading template-based pipeline, using only observed EPRV spectra.

astro-ph.EP