arXiv subjects

Eric B. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to Eric B. Ford.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Data-Driven Modeling of Telluric Features and Stellar Variability with StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl

A significant barrier to achieving the radial velocity (RV) measurement accuracy and precision required to characterize terrestrial mass exoplanets is the existence of time-variable features in the measured spectra, from both telluric absorption and stellar variability, which affect measured line shapes and can cause apparent RV shifts. Reaching the desired accuracy using traditional techniques often requires avoiding lines contaminated by stellar variability and/or changing tellurics, and thus discarding a large fraction of the spectrum, lowering precision. New data-driven methods can help achieve extremely precise and accurate RVs by enabling the use of a larger fraction of the available data. While there exist methods for modeling telluric features or the stellar variability individually, there is a need for additional tools that are capable of modeling them simultaneously at the spectral level. Here we present StellarSpectraObservationFitting.jl (SSOF), a Julia package for measuring Doppler shifts and creating data-driven models (with fast, physically-motivated Gaussian Process regularization) for the time-variable spectral features for both the telluric transmission and stellar spectrum, while accounting for the wavelength-dependent instrumental line-spread function. We demonstrate SSOF's state-of-the-art performance on data from the NEID RV spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope for multiple stars. We show SSOF's, ability to accurately identify and characterize spectral variability and provide $\sim$2-6x smaller photon-limited errors over the NEID CCF-based pipeline and match the performance of SERVAL, a leading template-based pipeline, using only observed EPRV spectra.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Earths within Reach: Evaluation of Strategies for Mitigating Solar Variability using 3.5 years of NEID Sun-as-a-Star Observations

We present the results of Sun-as-a-star observations by the NEID Solar Telescope at WIYN Observatory, spanning January 1, 2021 through June 30, 2024. We identify 117,060 observations which are unlikely to be significantly affected by weather, hardware or major calibration issues. We describe several high-level data products being made available to the community to aid in the interpretation and inter comparisons of NEID solar observations. Solar observations demonstrate excellent performance of NEID, including radial velocity (RV) accuracy and long-term stability of better than $\simeq 0.37$ m s$^{-1}$ over $\simeq 3.5$ years, even though NEID was not originally designed or optimized for daytime observations of the Sun. Currently, intrinsic stellar variability is the primary barrier to detecting Earth-analog planets for most nearby, Sun-like stars. We present a comparison of the effectiveness of several methods proposed to mitigate the effects of solar variability on the Sun's estimated RV. We find that the Scalpels algorithm performs particularly well and substantially reduces the RMS RV of solar spectra from over 2 m s$^{-1}$ to 0.277 m s$^{-1}$. Even when training on a subset of days with NEID solar observations and testing on a held-out sample, the RMS of cleaned RV is 0.34-0.42 m s$^{-1}$. This is significantly better than previous attempts at removing solar variability and suggests that the current generation of EPRV instruments are technically capable of detecting Earth-mass planets orbiting a solar twin if provided with sufficient observing time allocations ($\sim 10^3$ nights of observations).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Quiet Please: Detrending Radial Velocity Variations from Stellar Activity with a Physically Motivated Spot Model

For solar-type stars, spots and their associated magnetic regions induce radial velocity perturbations through the Doppler rotation signal and the suppression of convective blueshift -- collectively known as rotation-modulation. We developed the Rotation-Convection (RC) model: a method of detrending and characterizing rotation-modulation, using only cross-correlation functions or 1-dimensional spectra, without the need for continuous high cadence measurements. The RC method uses a simple model for the anomalous radial velocity induced by an active region and has two inputs: stellar flux (or a flux proxy) and the relative radial velocity between strongly and weakly absorbed wavelengths (analogous to the bisector-inverse slope). On NEID solar data (three month baseline), the RC model lowers the amplitude of rotationally-modulated stellar activity to below the meter-per-second level. For the standard star HD 26965, the RC model detrends the activity signal to the meter-per-second level for HARPS, EXPRES, and NEID observations, even though the temporal density and timespan of the observations differs by an order of magnitude between the three datasets. In addition to detrending, the RC model also characterizes the rotation-modulation signal. From comparison with the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we confirmed that the model accurately recovers and separates the rotation and convection radial velocity components. We also mapped the amplitude of the rotation and convection perturbations as a function of height within the stellar atmosphere. Probing stellar atmospheres with our revised spot model will fuel future innovations in stellar activity mitigation, enabling robust exoplanet detection.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Utilizing Photometry from Multiple Sources to Mitigate Stellar Variability in Precise Radial Velocities: A Case Study of Kepler-21

We present a new analysis of Kepler-21, the brightest (V = 8.5) Kepler system with a known transiting exoplanet, Kepler-21 b. Kepler-21 b is a radius valley planet ($R = 1.6\pm 0.2 R_{\oplus}$) with an Earth-like composition (8.38$\pm$1.62 g/cc), though its mass and radius fall in the regime of possible "water worlds." We utilize new Keck/HIRES and WIYN/NEID radial velocity (RV) data in conjunction with Kepler and TESS photometry to perform a detailed study of activity mitigation between photometry and RVs. We additionally refine the system parameters, and we utilize Gaia astrometry to place constraints on a long-term RV trend. Our activity analysis affirms the quality of Kepler photometry for removing correlated noise from RVs, despite its temporal distance, though we reveal some cases where TESS may be superior. Using refined orbital parameters and updated composition curves, we rule out a ``water world" scenario for Kepler-21 b, and we identify a long period super-Jupiter planetary candidate, Kepler-21 (c).

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

GRASS II: Simulations of Potential Granulation Noise Mitigation Methods

We present an updated version of GRASS (the GRanulation And Spectrum Simulator, Palumbo et al. 2022) which now uses an expanded library of 22 solar lines to empirically model time-resolved spectral variations arising from solar granulation. We show that our synthesis model accurately reproduces disk-integrated solar line profiles and bisectors, and we quantify the intrinsic granulation-driven radial-velocity (RV) variability for each of the 22 lines studied. We show that summary statistics of bisector shape (e.g., bisector inverse slope) are strongly correlated with the measured anomalous, variability-driven RV at high pixel signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and spectral resolution. Further, the strength of the correlations vary both line by line and with the summary statistic used. These correlations disappear for individual lines at the typical spectral resolutions and SNRs achieved by current EPRV spectrographs; so we use simulations from GRASS to demonstrate that they can, in principle, be recovered by selectively binning lines that are similarly affected by granulation. In the best-case scenario (high SNR and large number of binned lines), we find that a $\lesssim$30$\%$ reduction in the granulation-induced root mean square (RMS) RV can be achieved, but that the achievable reduction in variability is most strongly limited by the spectral resolution of the observing instrument. Based on our simulations, we predict that existing ultra-high-resolution spectrographs, namely ESPRESSO and PEPSI, should be able to resolve convective variability in other, bright stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The death of Vulcan: NEID reveals the planet candidate orbiting HD 26965 is stellar activity

We revisit the long-studied radial velocity (RV) target HD26965 using recent observations from the NASA-NSF 'NEID' precision Doppler facility. Leveraging a suite of classical activity indicators, combined with line-by-line RV analyses, we demonstrate that the claimed 45-day signal previously identified as a planet candidate is most likely an activity-induced signal. Correlating the bulk (spectrally-averaged) RV with canonical line activity indicators confirms a multi-day 'lag' between the observed activity indicator time series and the measured RV. When accounting for this lag, we show that much of the observed RV signal can be removed by a linear detrending of the data. Investigating activity at the line-by-line level, we find a depth-dependent correlation between individual line RVs and the bulk RVs, further indicative of periodic suppression of convective blueshift causing the observed RV variability, rather than an orbiting planet. We conclude that the combined evidence of the activity correlations and depth dependence is consistent with a radial velocity signature dominated by a rotationally-modulated activity signal at a period of $\sim$42 days. We hypothesize that this activity signature is due to a combination of spots and convective blueshift suppression. The tools applied in our analysis are broadly applicable to other stars, and could help paint a more comprehensive picture of the manifestations of stellar activity in future Doppler RV surveys.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Searching for Giant Exoplanets around M-dwarf Stars (GEMS) I: Survey Motivation

Recent discoveries of transiting giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars (GEMS), aided by the all-sky coverage of TESS, are starting to stretch theories of planet formation through the core-accretion scenario. Recent upper limits on their occurrence suggest that they decrease with lower stellar masses, with fewer GEMS around lower-mass stars compared to solar-type. In this paper, we discuss existing GEMS both through confirmed planets, as well as protoplanetary disk observations, and a combination of tests to reconcile these with theoretical predictions. We then introduce the \textit{Searching for GEMS} survey, where we utilize multi-dimensional nonparameteric statistics to simulate hypothetical survey scenarios to predict the required sample size of transiting GEMS with mass measurements to robustly compare their bulk-density with canonical hot-Jupiters orbiting FGK stars. Our Monte-Carlo simulations predict that a robust comparison requires about 40 transiting GEMS (compared to the existing sample of $\sim$ 15) with 5-$σ$ mass measurements. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing occurrence estimates for GEMS, and provide a brief description of our planned systematic search to improve the occurrence rate estimates for GEMS.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Extreme Stellar-Signals Project III. Combining Solar Data from HARPS, HARPS-N, EXPRES, and NEID

We present an analysis of Sun-as-a-star observations from four different high-resolution, stabilized spectrographs -- HARPS, HARPS-N, EXPRES, and NEID. With simultaneous observations of the Sun from four different instruments, we are able to gain insight into the radial velocity precision and accuracy delivered by each of these instruments and isolate instrumental systematics that differ from true astrophysical signals. With solar observations, we can completely characterize the expected Doppler shift contributed by orbiting Solar System bodies and remove them. This results in a data set with measured velocity variations that purely trace flows on the solar surface. Direct comparisons of the radial velocities measured by each instrument show remarkable agreement with residual intra-day scatter of only 15-30 cm/s. This shows that current ultra-stabilized instruments have broken through to a new level of measurement precision that reveals stellar variability with high fidelity and detail. We end by discussing how radial velocities from different instruments can be combined to provide powerful leverage for testing techniques to mitigate stellar signals.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Beyond 2-D Mass-Radius Relationships: A Nonparametric and Probabilistic Framework for Characterizing Planetary Samples in Higher Dimensions

Fundamental to our understanding of planetary bulk compositions is the relationship between their masses and radii, two properties that are often not simultaneously known for most exoplanets. However, while many previous studies have modeled the two-dimensional relationship between planetary mass and radii, this approach largely ignores the dependencies on other properties that may have influenced the formation and evolution of the planets. In this work, we extend the existing nonparametric and probabilistic framework of \texttt{MRExo} to jointly model distributions beyond two dimensions. Our updated framework can now simultaneously model up to four observables, while also incorporating asymmetric measurement uncertainties and upper limits in the data. We showcase the potential of this multi-dimensional approach to three science cases: (i) a 4-dimensional joint fit to planetary mass, radius, insolation, and stellar mass, hinting of changes in planetary bulk density across insolation and stellar mass; (ii) a 3-dimensional fit to the California Kepler Survey sample showing how the planet radius valley evolves across different stellar masses; and (iii) a 2-dimensional fit to a sample of Class-II protoplanetary disks in Lupus while incorporating the upper-limits in dust mass measurements. In addition, we employ bootstrap and Monte-Carlo sampling to quantify the impact of the finite sample size as well as measurement uncertainties on the predicted quantities. We update our existing open-source user-friendly \texttt{MRExo} \texttt{Python} package with these changes, which allows users to apply this highly flexible framework to a variety of datasets beyond what we have shown here.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Statistical methods for exoplanet detection with radial velocities

Exoplanets can be detected with various observational techniques. Among them, radial velocity (RV) has the key advantages of revealing the architecture of planetary systems and measuring planetary mass and orbital eccentricities. RV observations are poised to play a key role in the detection and characterization of Earth twins. However, the detection of such small planets is not yet possible due to very complex, temporally correlated instrumental and astrophysical stochastic signals. Furthermore, exploring the large parameter space of RV models exhaustively and efficiently presents difficulties. In this review, we frame RV data analysis as a problem of detection and parameter estimation in unevenly sampled, multivariate time series. The objective of this review is two-fold: to introduce the motivation, methodological challenges, and numerical challenges of RV data analysis to nonspecialists, and to unify the existing advanced approaches in order to identify areas for improvement.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2023

A High-Eccentricity Warm Jupiter Orbiting TOI-4127

We report the discovery of TOI-4127 b, a transiting, Jupiter-sized exoplanet on a long-period ($P = 56.39879^{+0.00010}_{-0.00010}$ d), high-eccentricity orbit around a late F-type dwarf star. This warm Jupiter was first detected and identified as a promising candidate from a search for single-transit signals in TESS Sector 20 data, and later characterized as a planet following two subsequent transits (TESS Sectors 26 and 53) and follow-up ground-based RV observations with the NEID and SOPHIE spectrographs. We jointly fit the transit and RV data to constrain the physical ($R_p = 1.096^{+0.039}_{-0.032} R_J$, $M_p = 2.30^{+0.11}_{-0.11} M_J$) and orbital parameters of the exoplanet. Given its high orbital eccentricity ($e=0.7471^{+0.0078}_{-0.0086}$), TOI-4127 b is a compelling candidate for studies of warm Jupiter populations and of hot Jupiter formation pathways. We show that the present periastron separation of TOI-4127 b is too large for high-eccentricity tidal migration to circularize its orbit, and that TOI-4127 b is unlikely to be a hot Jupiter progenitor unless it is undergoing angular momentum exchange with an undetected outer companion. Although we find no evidence for an external companion, the available observational data are insufficient to rule out the presence of a perturber that can excite eccentricity oscillations and facilitate tidal migration.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Debiasing the Minimum-Mass Extrasolar Nebula: On the Diversity of Solid Disk Profiles

A foundational idea in the theory of in situ planet formation is the "minimum mass extrasolar nebula" (MMEN), a surface density profile ($Σ$) of disk solids that is necessary to form the planets in their present locations. While most previous studies have fit a single power-law to all exoplanets in an observed ensemble, it is unclear whether most exoplanetary systems form from a universal disk template. We use an advanced statistical model for the underlying architectures of multi-planet systems to reconstruct the MMEN. The simulated physical and Kepler-observed catalogs allows us to directly assess the role of detection biases, and in particular the effect of non-transiting or otherwise undetected planets, in altering the inferred MMEN. We find that fitting a power-law of the form $Σ= Σ_0^* (a/a_0)^β$ to each multi-planet system results in a broad distribution of disk profiles; $Σ_0^* = 336_{-291}^{+727}$ g/cm$^2$ and $β= -1.98_{-1.52}^{+1.55}$ encompass the 16th-84th percentiles of the marginal distributions in an underlying population, where $Σ_0^*$ is the normalization at $a_0 = 0.3$ AU. Around half of inner planet-forming disks have minimum solid masses of $\gtrsim 40 M_\oplus$ within 1 AU. While transit observations do not tend to bias the median $β$, they can lead to both significantly over- and under-estimated $Σ_0^*$ and thus broaden the inferred distribution of disk masses. Nevertheless, detection biases cannot account for the full variance in the observed disk profiles; there is no universal MMEN if all planets formed in situ. The great diversity of solid disk profiles suggests that a substantial fraction ($\gtrsim 23\%$) of planetary systems experienced a history of migration.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Detection of p-mode Oscillations in HD 35833 with NEID and TESS

We report the results of observations of p-mode oscillations in the G0 subgiant star HD 35833 in both radial velocities and photometry with NEID and TESS, respectively. We achieve separate, robust detections of the oscillation signal with both instruments (radial velocity amplitude $A_{\rm RV}=1.11\pm0.09$ m s$^{-1}$, photometric amplitude $A_{\rm phot}=6.42\pm0.60$ ppm, frequency of maximum power $ν_{\rm max} = 595.71\pm17.28$ $μ$Hz, and mode spacing $Δν= 36.65\pm0.96$ $μ$Hz) as well as a non-detection in a TESS sector concurrent with the NEID observations. These data shed light on our ability to mitigate the correlated noise impact of oscillations with radial velocities alone, and on the robustness of commonly used asteroseismic scaling relations. The NEID data are used to validate models for the attenuation of oscillation signals for exposure times $t<ν_{\rm max}^{-1}$, and we compare our results to predictions from theoretical scaling relations and find that the observed amplitudes are weaker than expected by $>4σ$, hinting at gaps in the underlying physical models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Migration traps as the root cause of the Kepler dichotomy

It is often assumed that the "Kepler dichotomy" -- the apparent excess of planetary systems with a single detected transiting planet in the Kepler catalog -- reflects an intrinsic bimodality in the mutual inclinations of planetary orbits. After conducting 600 simulations of planet formation followed by simulated Kepler observations, we instead propose that the apparent dichotomy reflects a divergence in the amount of migration and the separation of planetary semimajor axes into distinct "clusters". We find that our simulated high-mass systems migrate rapidly, bringing more planets into orbital periods of less than 200 days. The outer planets are often caught in a migration trap -- a range of planet masses and locations in which a dominant co-rotation torque prevents inward migration -- which splits the system into two clusters. If clusters are sufficiently separated, the inner cluster remains dynamically cold, leading to low mutual inclinations and a higher probability of detecting multiple transiting planets. Conversely, our simulated low-mass systems typically bring fewer planets inside 200 days, forming a single cluster that quickly becomes dynamically unstable, leading to collisions and high mutual inclinations. We propose an alternative explanation for the apparent Kepler dichotomy in which migration traps during formation lead to fewer planets inside the Kepler detection window, and where mutual inclinations play only a secondary role. If our scenario is correct, then Kepler's STIPs (Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets) are a sample of planets that escaped capture by co-rotation traps, and their sizes may be a valuable probe into the structure of protoplanetary discs.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

GJ 3929: High Precision Photometric and Doppler Characterization of an Exo-Venus and its Hot, Mini-Neptune-mass Companion

We detail the follow up and characterization of a transiting exo-Venus identified by TESS, GJ 3929b, (TOI-2013b) and its non-transiting companion planet, GJ 3929c (TOI-2013c). GJ 3929b is an Earth-sized exoplanet in its star's Venus-zone (P$_{b}$ = 2.616272 $\pm$ 0.000005 days; S$_{b}$ = 17.3$^{+0.8}_{-0.7}$ S$_{\oplus}$) orbiting a nearby M dwarf. GJ 3929c is most likely a non-transiting sub-Neptune. Using the new, ultra-precise NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5 m Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory, we are able to modify the mass constraints of planet b reported in previous works and consequently improve the significance of the mass measurement to almost 4$σ$ confidence (M$_{b}$ = 1.75 $\pm$ 0.45 M$_{\oplus}$). We further adjust the orbital period of planet c from its alias at 14.30 $\pm$ 0.03 days to the likely true period of 15.04 $\pm$ 0.03 days, and adjust its minimum mass to m$\sin i$ = 5.71 $\pm$ 0.92 M$_{\oplus}$. Using the diffuser-assisted ARCTIC imager on the ARC 3.5 m telescope at Apache Point Observatory, in addition to publicly available TESS and LCOGT photometry, we are able to constrain the radius of planet b to R$_{p}$ = 1.09 $\pm$ 0.04 R$_{\oplus}$. GJ 3929b is a top candidate for transmission spectroscopy in its size regime (TSM = 14 $\pm$ 4), and future atmospheric studies of GJ 3929b stand to shed light on the nature of small planets orbiting M dwarfs.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

FIESTA II. Disentangling stellar and instrumental variability from exoplanetary Doppler shifts in Fourier domain

The radial velocity (RV) detection of exoplanets is challenged by stellar spectroscopic variability that can mimic the presence of planets and by instrumental instability that can further obscure the detection. Both stellar and instrumental changes can distort the spectral line profiles and be misinterpreted as apparent RV shifts. We present an improved FourIEr \textit{phase} SpecTrum Analysis (FIESTA a.k.a. $\mathitϕ$ESTA) to disentangle apparent velocity shifts due to a line deformation from a true Doppler shift. $\mathitϕ$ESTA projects stellar spectrum's cross correlation function (CCF) onto a truncated set of Fourier basis functions. Using the amplitude and phase information from each Fourier mode, we can trace the line variability at different CCF width scales to robustly identify and mitigate multiple sources of RV contamination. For example, in our study of the 3 years of HARPS-N solar data, $\mathitϕ$ESTA reveals the solar rotational effect, the long-term trend due to solar magnetic cycle, instrumental instability and apparent solar rotation rate changes. Applying a multiple linear regression model on $\mathitϕ$ESTA metrics, we reduce the weighted rms noise from 1.89 m/s to 0.98 m/s. In addition, we observe a $\sim$3 days lag in the $\mathitϕ$ESTA metrics, similar to the findings from previous studies on BIS and FWHM.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

The Warm Neptune GJ 3470b has a Polar Orbit

The warm Neptune GJ 3470b transits a nearby ($d=29$pc) bright slowly rotating M1.5-dwarf star. Using spectroscopic observations during two transits with the newly commissioned NEID spectrometer on the WIYN 3.5m Telescope at Kitt Peak Observatory, we model the classical Rossiter-Mclaughlin effect yielding a sky-projected obliquity of $λ=98_{-12}^{+15\:\circ}$ and a $v \sin i = 0.85_{-0.33}^{+0.27}$km/s. Leveraging information about the rotation period and size of the host star, our analysis yields a true obliquity of $ψ=95_{-8}^{+9\:\circ}$, revealing that GJ 3470b is on a polar orbit. Using radial velocities from HIRES, HARPS and the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, we show that the data are compatible with a long-term RV slope of $\dotγ = -0.0022 \pm 0.0011$m/s/day over a baseline of 12.9 years. If the RV slope is due to acceleration from another companion in the system, we show that such a companion is capable of explaining the polar and mildly eccentric orbit of GJ 3470b using two different secular excitation models. The existence of an outer companion can be further constrained with additional RV observations, Gaia astrometry, and future high-contrast imaging observations. Lastly, we show that tidal heating from GJ 3470b's mild eccentricity has most likely inflated the radius of GJ 3470b by a factor of $\sim$1.5-1.7, which could help account for its evaporating atmosphere.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

Impact of Correlated Noise on the Mass Precision of Earth-analog Planets in Radial Velocity Surveys

Characterizing the masses and orbits of near-Earth-mass planets is crucial for interpreting observations from future direct imaging missions (e.g., HabEx, LUVOIR). Therefore, the Exoplanet Science Strategy report (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2018) recommended further research so future extremely precise radial velocity surveys could contribute to the discovery and/or characterization of near-Earth-mass planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars prior to the launch of these future imaging missions. Newman et al. (2021) simulated such 10-year surveys under various telescope architectures, demonstrating they can precisely measure the masses of potentially habitable Earth-mass planets in the absence of stellar variability. Here, we investigate the effect of stellar variability on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the planet mass measurements in these simulations. We find that correlated noise due to active regions has the largest effect on the observed mass SNR, reducing the SNR by a factor of $\sim$5.5 relative to the no-variability scenario -- granulation reduces by a factor of $\sim$3, while p-mode oscillations has little impact on the proposed survey strategies. We show that in the presence of correlated noise, 5-cm s$^{-1}$ instrumental precision offers little improvement over 10-cm s$^{-1}$ precision, highlighting the need to mitigate astrophysical variability. With our noise models, extending the survey to 15 years doubles the number of Earth-analogs with mass SNR $>$ 10, and reaching this threshold for any Earth-analog orbiting a star $>$ 0.76 M$_{\odot}$ in a 10-year survey would require an increase in number of observations per star from that in Newman et al. (2021).

astro-ph.EP↗