arXiv subjects

Eric B. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to Eric B. Ford.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

A warm Jupiter transiting an M dwarf: A TESS single transit event confirmed with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

We confirm the planetary nature of a warm Jupiter transiting the early M dwarf TOI-1899, using a combination of available TESS photometry; high-precision, near-infrared spectroscopy with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder; and speckle and adaptive optics imaging. The data reveal a transiting companion on an $\sim29$-day orbit with a mass and radius of $0.66\pm0.07\ \mathrm{M_{J}}$ and $1.15_{-0.05}^{+0.04}\ \mathrm{R_{J}}$, respectively. The star TOI-1899 is the lowest-mass star known to host a transiting warm Jupiter, and we discuss the follow-up opportunities afforded by a warm ($\mathrm{T_{eq}}\sim362$ K) gas giant orbiting an M0 star. Our observations reveal that TOI-1899.01 is a puffy warm Jupiter, and we suggest additional transit observations to both refine the orbit and constrain the true dilution observed in TESS.

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arXiv2020

Improving Exoplanet Detection Power: Multivariate Gaussian Process Models for Stellar Activity

The radial velocity method is one of the most successful techniques for detecting exoplanets. It works by detecting the velocity of a host star induced by the gravitational effect of an orbiting planet, specifically the velocity along our line of sight, which is called the radial velocity of the star. Low-mass planets typically cause their host star to move with radial velocities of 1 m/s or less. By analyzing a time series of stellar spectra from a host star, modern astronomical instruments can in theory detect such planets. However, in practice, intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., star spots, convective motion, pulsations) affects the spectra and often mimics a radial velocity signal. This signal contamination makes it difficult to reliably detect low-mass planets. A principled approach to recovering planet radial velocity signals in the presence of stellar activity was proposed by Rajpaul et al. (2015). It uses a multivariate Gaussian process model to jointly capture time series of the apparent radial velocity and multiple indicators of stellar activity. We build on this work in two ways: (i) we propose using dimension reduction techniques to construct new high-information stellar activity indicators; and (ii) we extend the Rajpaul et al. (2015) model to a larger class of models and use a power-based model comparison procedure to select the best model. Despite significant interest in exoplanets, previous efforts have not performed large-scale stellar activity model selection or attempted to evaluate models based on planet detection power. In the case of main sequence G2V stars, we find that our method substantially improves planet detection power compared to previous state-of-the-art approaches.

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arXiv2020

Occurrence Rates of Planets Orbiting M Stars: Applying ABC to Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2, and 2MASS Data

We present robust planet occurrence rates for Kepler planet candidates around M stars for planet radii $R_p = 0.5-4~\textrm{R}_\oplus$ and orbital periods $P = 0.5-256$ days using the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) technique. This work incorporates the final Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and data products and augments them with updated stellar properties using Gaia DR2 and 2MASS PSC. We apply a set of selection criteria to select a sample of 1,746 Kepler M dwarf targets that host 89 associated planet candidates. These early M dwarfs and late K dwarfs were selected from cross-referenced targets using several photometric quality flags from Gaia DR2 and color-magnitude cuts using 2MASS magnitudes. We estimate a habitable zone occurrence rate of $f_{\textrm{M,HZ}} = 0.33^{+0.10}_{-0.12}$ for planets with $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ size. We caution that occurrence rate estimates for Kepler M stars are sensitive to the choice of prior due to the small sample of target stars and planet candidates. For example, we find an occurrence rate of $4.2^{+0.6}_{-0.6}$ or $8.4^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$ planets per M dwarf (integrating over $R_p = 0.5-4~\textrm{R}_\oplus$ and $P = 0.5-256$ days) for our two choices of prior. These occurrence rates are greater than those for FGK dwarf target when compared at the same range of orbital periods, but similar to occurrence rates when computed as a function of equivalent stellar insolation. Combining our result with recent studies of exoplanet architectures indicates that most, and potentially all, early-M dwarfs harbor planetary systems.

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arXiv2020

The Habitable-zone Planet Finder Reveals A High Mass and a Low Obliquity for the Young Neptune K2-25b

Using radial-velocity data from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, we have measured the mass of the Neptune-sized planet K2-25b, as well as the obliquity of its M4.5-dwarf host star in the 600-800MYr Hyades cluster. This is one of the youngest planetary systems for which both of these quantities have been measured, and one of the very few M dwarfs with a measured obliquity. Based on a joint analysis of the radial velocity data, time-series photometry from the K2 mission, and new transit light curves obtained with diffuser-assisted photometry, the planet's radius and mass are $3.44\pm 0.12 \mathrm{R_\oplus}$ and $24.5_{-5.2}^{+5.7} \mathrm{M_\oplus}$. These properties are compatible with a rocky core enshrouded by a thin hydrogen-helium atmosphere (5% by mass). We measure an orbital eccentricity of $e=0.43 \pm 0.05$. The sky-projected stellar obliquity is $λ=3 \pm 16^{\circ}$, compatible with spin-orbit alignment, in contrast to other "hot Neptunes" that have been studied around older stars.

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arXiv2020

TOI-1728b: The Habitable-zone Planet Finder confirms a warm super Neptune orbiting an M dwarf host

We confirm the planetary nature of TOI-1728b using a combination of ground-based photometry, near-infrared Doppler velocimetry and spectroscopy with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder.TOI-1728 is an old, inactive M0 star with \teff{} $= 3980^{+31}_{-32}$ K, which hosts a transiting super Neptune at an orbital period of $\sim$ 3.49 days. Joint fitting of the radial velocities and TESS and ground-based transits yields a planetary radius of $5.05_{-0.17}^{+0.16}$ R$_{\oplus}$, mass $26.78_{-5.13}^{+5.43}$ M$_{\oplus}$ and eccentricity $0.057_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$. We estimate the stellar properties, and perform a search for He 10830 Åabsorption during the transit of this planet and claim a null detection with an upper limit of 1.1$\%$ with 90\% confidence. A deeper level of He 10830 Å~ absorption has been detected in the planet atmosphere of GJ 3470b, a comparable gaseous planet. TOI-1728b is the largest super Neptune -- the intermediate subclass of planets between Neptune and the more massive gas-giant planets -- discovered around an M dwarf. With its relatively large mass and radius, TOI-1728 represents a valuable datapoint in the M-dwarf exoplanet mass-radius diagram, bridging the gap between the lighter Neptune-sized planets and the heavier Jovian planets known to orbit M-dwarfs. With a low bulk density of $1.14_{-0.24}^{+0.26}$ g/cm$^3$, and orbiting a bright host star (J $\sim 9.6$, V $\sim 12.4$), TOI-1728b is also a promising candidate for transmission spectroscopy both from the ground and from space, which can be used to constrain planet formation and evolutionary models.

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arXiv2020

Persistent starspot signals on M dwarfs: multi-wavelength Doppler observations with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder and Keck/HIRES

Young, rapidly-rotating M dwarfs exhibit prominent starspots, which create quasiperiodic signals in their photometric and Doppler spectroscopic measurements. The periodic Doppler signals can mimic radial velocity (RV) changes expected from orbiting exoplanets. Exoplanets can be distinguished from activity-induced false positives by the chromaticity and long-term incoherence of starspot signals, but these qualities are poorly constrained for fully-convective M stars. Coherent photometric starspot signals on M dwarfs may persist for hundreds of rotations, and the wavelength dependence of starspot RV signals may not be consistent between stars due to differences in their magnetic fields and active regions. We obtained precise multi-wavelength RVs of four rapidly-rotating M dwarfs (AD Leo, G 227-22, GJ 1245B, GJ 3959) using the near-infrared (NIR) Habitable-zone Planet Finder, and the optical Keck/HIRES spectrometer. Our RVs are complemented by photometry from Kepler, TESS, and the Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) network of telescopes. We found that all four stars exhibit large spot-induced Doppler signals at their rotation periods, and investigated the longevity and optical-to-NIR chromaticity for these signals. The phase curves remain coherent much longer than is typical for Sunlike stars. Their chromaticity varies, and one star (GJ 3959) exhibits optical and NIR RV modulation consistent in both phase and amplitude. In general, though, we find that the NIR amplitudes are lower than their optical counterparts. We conclude that starspot modulation for rapidly-rotating M stars frequently remains coherent for hundreds of stellar rotations, and gives rise to Doppler signals that, due to this coherence, may be mistaken for exoplanets.

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arXiv2020

Towards Extremely Precise Radial Velocities: I. Simulated Solar Spectra for Testing Exoplanet Detection Algorithms

Recent and upcoming stabilized spectrographs are pushing the frontier for Doppler spectroscopy to detect and characterize low-mass planets. Specifications for these instruments are so impressive that intrinsic stellar variability is expected to limit their Doppler precision for most target stars (Fischer et al. 2016). To realize their full potential, astronomers must develop new strategies for distinguishing true Doppler shifts from intrinsic stellar variability. Stellar variability due to star spots, faculae and other rotationally-linked variability are particularly concerning, as the stellar rotation period is often included in the range of potential planet orbital periods. To robustly detect and accurately characterize low-mass planets via Doppler planet surveys, the exoplanet community must develop statistical models capable of jointly modeling planetary perturbations and intrinsic stellar variability. Towards this effort, this note presents simulations of extremely high resolution, solar-like spectra created with SOAP 2.0 (arXiv:1409.3594) that includes multiple evolving star spots. We anticipate this data set will contribute to future studies developing, testing, and comparing statistical methods for measuring physical radial velocities amid contamination by stellar variability.

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arXiv2020

Evidence for He I 10830 Å~ absorption during the transit of a warm Neptune around the M-dwarf GJ 3470 with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

Understanding the dynamics and kinematics of out-flowing atmospheres of hot and warm exoplanets is crucial to understanding the origins and evolutionary history of the exoplanets near the evaporation desert. Recently, ground based measurements of the meta-stable Helium atom's resonant absorption at 10830 Å~has become a powerful probe of the base environment which is driving the outflow of exoplanet atmospheres. We report evidence for the He I 10830 Å~in absorption (equivalent width $\sim$ $0.012 \pm 0.002$ Å) in the exosphere of a warm Neptune orbiting the M-dwarf GJ 3470, during three transits using the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF) near infrared spectrograph. This marks the first reported evidence for He I 10830 Å\, atmospheric absorption for a planet orbiting an M-dwarf. Our detected absorption is broad and its blueshifted wing extends to -36 km/sec, the largest reported in the literature to date. We modelled the state of Helium atoms in the exosphere of GJ3470b based on assumptions on the UV and X-ray flux of GJ 3470, and found our measurement of flux-weighted column density of meta-stable state Helium $(N_{He^2_3S} = 2.4 \times 10^{10} \mathrm{cm^{-2}})$, derived from our transit observations, to be consistent with model, within its uncertainties. The methodology developed here will be useful to study and constrain the atmospheric outflow models of other exoplanets like GJ 3470b which are near the edge of the evaporation desert.

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arXiv2020

Occurrence Rates of Planets orbiting FGK Stars: Combining Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2 and Bayesian Inference

We characterize the occurrence rate of planets, ranging in size from 0.5-16 R$_\oplus$, orbiting FGK stars with orbital periods from 0.5-500 days. Our analysis is based on results from the "DR25" catalog of planet candidates produced by NASA's Kepler mission and stellar radii from Gaia "DR2". We incorporate additional Kepler data products to accurately characterize the efficiency of planets being recognized as a "threshold crossing events" (TCE) by Kepler's Transiting Planet Search pipeline and labeled as a planet candidate by the robovetter. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we derive planet occurrence rates for a wide range of planet sizes and orbital periods. For planets with sizes $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ and orbital periods of 237-500 days, we find a rate of planets per FGK star of $<0.27$ ($84.13$th percentile). While the true rate of such planets could be lower by a factor of $\sim~2$ (primarily due to potential contamination of planet candidates by false alarms), the upper limits on the occurrence rate of such planets are robust to $\sim~10\%$. We recommend that mission concepts aiming to characterize potentially rocky planets in or near the habitable zone of sun-like stars prepare compelling science programs that would be robust for a true rate in the range $f_{R,P} = $ $0.03-0.40$ for $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ planets with orbital periods in 237-500 days, or a differential rate of $Γ_\oplus \equiv (d^2 f)/[d(\ln P)~d(\ln R_{p})] = $ $0.06-0.76$.

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arXiv2019

Superabundance of Exoplanet Sub-Neptunes Explained by Fugacity Crisis

Transiting planets with radii 2-3 $R_\bigoplus$ are much more numerous than larger planets. We propose that this drop-off is so abrupt because at $R$ $\sim$ 3 $R_\bigoplus$, base-of-atmosphere pressure is high enough for the atmosphere to readily dissolve into magma, and this sequestration acts as a strong brake on further growth. The viability of this idea is demonstrated using a simple model. Our results support extensive magma-atmosphere equilibration on sub-Neptunes, with numerous implications for sub-Neptune formation and atmospheric chemistry.

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arXiv2019

A sub-Neptune sized planet transiting the M2.5-dwarf G 9-40: Validation with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

We validate the discovery of a 2 Earth radii sub-Neptune-size planet around the nearby high proper motion M2.5-dwarf G 9-40 (EPIC 212048748), using high-precision near-infrared (NIR) radial velocity (RV) observations with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF), precision diffuser-assisted ground-based photometry with a custom narrow-band photometric filter, and adaptive optics imaging. At a distance of $d=27.9\mathrm{pc}$, G 9-40b is the second closest transiting planet discovered by K2 to date. The planet's large transit depth ($\sim$3500ppm), combined with the proximity and brightness of the host star at NIR wavelengths (J=10, K=9.2) makes G 9-40b one of the most favorable sub-Neptune-sized planet orbiting an M-dwarf for transmission spectroscopy with JWST, ARIEL, and the upcoming Extremely Large Telescopes. The star is relatively inactive with a rotation period of $\sim$29 days determined from the K2 photometry. To estimate spectroscopic stellar parameters, we describe our implementation of an empirical spectral matching algorithm using the high-resolution NIR HPF spectra. Using this algorithm, we obtain an effective temperature of $T_{\mathrm{eff}}=3404\pm73$K, and metallicity of $\mathrm{[Fe/H]}=-0.08\pm0.13$. Our RVs, when coupled with the orbital parameters derived from the transit photometry, exclude planet masses above $11.7 M_\oplus$ with 99.7% confidence assuming a circular orbit. From its radius, we predict a mass of $M=5.0^{+3.8}_{-1.9} M_\oplus$ and an RV semi-amplitude of $K=4.1^{+3.1}_{-1.6}\mathrm{m\:s^{-1}}$, making its mass measurable with current RV facilities. We urge further RV follow-up observations to precisely measure its mass, to enable precise transmission spectroscopic measurements in the future.

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arXiv2019

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. I: A Clustered Forward Model for Exoplanetary Systems around Kepler's FGK Stars

Observations of exoplanetary systems provide clues about the intrinsic distribution of planetary systems, their architectures, and how they formed. We develop a forward modelling framework for generating populations of planetary systems and "observed" catalogues by simulating the Kepler detection pipeline (SysSim). We compare our simulated catalogues to the Kepler DR25 catalogue of planet candidates, updated to include revised stellar radii from Gaia DR2. We constrain our model based on the observed 1D marginal distributions of orbital periods, period ratios, transit depths, transit depth ratios, transit durations, transit duration ratios, and transit multiplicities. Models assuming planets with independent periods and sizes do not adequately account for the properties of the multiplanet systems. Instead, a clustered point process model for exoplanet periods and sizes provides a significantly better description of the Kepler population, particularly the observed multiplicity and period ratio distributions. We find that $0.56^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ of FGK stars have at least one planet larger than $0.5 R_\oplus$ between 3 and 300 d. Most of these planetary systems ($\sim 98\%$) consist of one or two clusters with a median of three planets per cluster. We find that the Kepler dichotomy is evidence for a population of highly inclined planetary systems and is unlikely to be solely due to a population of intrinsically single planet systems. We provide a large ensemble of simulated physical and observed catalogues of planetary systems from our models, as well as publicly available code for generating similar catalogues given user-defined parameters.

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arXiv2019

Quantifying the Bayesian Evidence for a Planet in Radial Velocity Data

We present results from a data challenge posed to the radial velocity (RV) community: namely, to quantify the Bayesian "evidence" for n={0,1,2,3} planets in a set of synthetically generated RV datasets containing a range of planet signals. Participating teams were provided the same likelihood function and set of priors to use in their analysis. They applied a variety of methods to estimate Z, the marginal likelihood for each n-planet model, including cross-validation, the Laplace approximation, importance sampling, and nested sampling. We found the dispersion in Z across different methods grew with increasing n-planet models: ~3 for 0-planets, ~10 for 1-planet, ~100-1000 for 2-planets, and >10,000 for 3-planets. Most internal estimates of uncertainty in Z for individual methods significantly underestimated the observed dispersion across all methods. Methods that adopted a Monte Carlo approach by comparing estimates from multiple runs yielded plausible uncertainties. Finally, two classes of numerical algorithms (those based on importance and nested samplers) arrived at similar conclusions regarding the ratio of Zs for n and (n+1)-planet models. One analytic method (the Laplace approximation) demonstrated comparable performance. We express both optimism and caution: we demonstrate that it is practical to perform rigorous Bayesian model comparison for <=3-planet models, yet robust planet discoveries require researchers to better understand the uncertainty in Z and its connections to model selection.

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arXiv2019

Realizing the potential of astrostatistics and astroinformatics

This Astro2020 State of the Profession Consideration White Paper highlights the growth of astrostatistics and astroinformatics in astronomy, identifies key issues hampering the maturation of these new subfields, and makes recommendations for structural improvements at different levels that, if acted upon, will make significant positive impacts across astronomy.

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arXiv2019

An Automated Method to Detect Transiting Circumbinary Planets

To date a dozen transiting "Tatooines" or circumbinary planets (CBPs) have been discovered, by eye, in the data from the Kepler mission; by contrast, thousands of confirmed circumstellar planets orbiting around single stars have been detected using automated algorithms. Automated detection of CBPs is challenging because their transits are strongly aperiodic with irregular profiles. Here, we describe an efficient and automated technique for detecting circumbinary planets that transit their binary hosts in Kepler light curves. Our method accounts for large transit timing and duration variations (TTVs and TDVs), induced by binary reflex motion, in two ways: 1) We directly correct for large-scale TTVs and TDVs in the light curves by using Keplerian models to approximate binary and CBP orbits; and 2) We allow additional aperiodicities on the corrected light curves by employing the Quasi-periodic Automated Transit Search algorithm (QATS). We demonstrate that our method dramatically improves detection significance using simulated data and two previously identified CBP systems, Kepler-35 and Kepler-64.

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arXiv2019

Scheduling Discovery in the 2020s

The 2020s will be the most data-rich decade of astronomy in history. As the scale and complexity of our surveys increase, the problem of scheduling becomes more critical. We must develop high-quality scheduling approaches, implement them as open-source software, and begin linking the typically separate stages of observation and data analysis.

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arXiv2019

Discovery of a Third Transiting Planet in the Kepler-47 Circumbinary System

Of the nine confirmed transiting circumbinary planet systems, only Kepler-47 is known to contain more than one planet. Kepler-47 b (the "inner planet") has an orbital period of 49.5 days and a radius of about $3\,R_{\oplus}$. Kepler-47 c (the "outer planet") has an orbital period of 303.2 days and a radius of about $4.7\,R_{\oplus}$. Here we report the discovery of a third planet, Kepler-47 d (the "middle planet"), which has an orbital period of 187.4 days and a radius of about $7\,R_{\oplus}$. The presence of the middle planet allows us to place much better constraints on the masses of all three planets, where the $1σ$ ranges are less than $26\,M_{\oplus}$, between $7-43\,M_{\oplus}$, and between $2-5\,M_{\oplus}$ for the inner, middle, and outer planets, respectively. The middle and outer planets have low bulk densities, with $ρ_{\rm middle} < 0.68$ g cm$^{-3}$ and $ρ_{\rm outer} < 0.26$ g cm$^{-3}$ at the $1σ$ level. The two outer planets are "tightly packed," assuming the nominal masses, meaning no other planet could stably orbit between them. All of the orbits have low eccentricities and are nearly coplanar, disfavoring violent scattering scenarios and suggesting gentle migration in the protoplanetary disk.

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arXiv2019

Formation of short-period planets by disk migration

Protoplanetary disks are thought to be truncated at orbital periods of around 10 days. Therefore, origin of rocky short period planets with $P < 10$ days is a puzzle. We propose that many of these planets may form through the Type-I migration of planets locked into a chain of mutual mean motion resonances. We ran N-body simulations of planetary embryos embedded in a protoplanetary disk. The embryos experienced gravitational scatterings, collisions, disk torques, and dampening of orbital eccentricity and inclination. We then modelled Kepler observations of these planets using a forward model of both the transit probability and the detection efficiency of the Kepler pipeline. We found that planets become locked into long chains of mean motion resonances that migrate in unison. When the chain reaches the edge of the disk, the inner planets are pushed past the edge due to the disk torques acting on the planets farther out in the chain. Our simulated systems successfully reproduce the observed period distribution of short period Kepler planets between 1 and 2 $R_\oplus$. However, we obtain fewer closely packed short period planets than in the Kepler sample. Our results provide valuable insight into the planet formation process, and suggests that resonance locks, migration, and dynamical instabilities play important roles the the formation and evolution of close-in small exoplanets.

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