arXiv subjects

Eric B. Ford

Publications and source records attributed to Eric B. Ford.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Observing the Sun as a star: Design and early results from the NEID solar feed

Efforts with extreme-precision radial velocity (EPRV) instruments to detect small-amplitude planets are largely limited, on many timescales, by the effects of stellar variability and instrumental systematics. One avenue for investigating these effects is the use of small solar telescopes which direct disk-integrated sunlight to these EPRV instruments, observing the Sun at high cadence over months or years. We have designed and built a solar feed system to carry out "Sun-as-a-star" observations with NEID, a very high precision Doppler spectrometer recently commissioned at the WIYN 3.5m Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory. The NEID solar feed has been taking observations nearly every day since December 2020; data is publicly available at the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute (NExScI) NEID Solar Archive: \url{https://neid.ipac.caltech.edu/search_solar.php}. In this paper, we present the design of the NEID solar feed and explanations behind our design intent. We also present early radial velocity (RV) results which demonstrate NEID's RV stability on the Sun over 4 months of commissioning: 0.66~m/s RMS under good sky conditions and improving to 0.41~m/s RMS under best conditions.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Modeling Stellar Oscillations and Granulation in Radial Velocity Time Series: A Fourier-based Method

Tens of thousands of solar-like oscillating stars have been observed by space missions. Their photometric variability in the Fourier domain can be parameterized by a sum of two super-Lorentizian functions for granulation and a Gaussian-shaped power excess for oscillation. The photometric granulation/oscillation parameters scale with stellar parameters and they can also make predictions for corresponding parameters in radial velocity measurements. Based on scaling relations, we simulate realistic radial velocity time series and examine how the root-mean-square scatter of radial velocity measurements varies with stellar parameters and different observation strategies such as the length of integration time and gaps in the time series. Using stars with extensive spectroscopic observations from the spectrographs (SONG and HARPS), we measure the granulation amplitude and timescale from the power spectrum of the radial velocity time series. We compare these measurements with literature values based on Kepler photometry. We find that the granulation amplitude in radial velocity can be well predicted from the photometry and scaling relations. Both granulation timescales in radial velocity agree with those predicted from photometry for giants and sub-giants. However, for main-sequence stars, only one granulation timescale in radial velocity is in agreement with the photometric-based values, while the other timescale generally lies at lower frequencies compared to the result of photometry. In conclusion, we show the photometric scaling relations from Kepler photometry and the scaling relationship to Doppler observations can be very useful for predicting the photometric and radial velocity stellar variabilities due to stellar granulation and oscillation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

NEID Rossiter-McLaughlin Measurement of TOI-1268b: A Young Warm Saturn Aligned with Its Cool Host Star

Close-in gas giants present a surprising range of stellar obliquity, the angle between a planet's orbital axis and its host star's spin axis. It is unclear whether the obliquities reflect the planets' dynamical history (e.g., aligned for in situ formation or disk migration versus misaligned for high-eccentricity tidal migration) or whether other mechanisms (e.g., primordial misalignment or planet-star interactions) are more important in sculpting the obliquity distribution. Here we present the stellar obliquity measurement of TOI-1268 (TIC-142394656, $V_{\rm mag} {\sim} 10.9$), a young K-type dwarf hosting an 8.2-day period, Saturn-sized planet. TOI-1268's lithium abundance and rotation period suggest the system age between the ages of Pleiades cluster (${\sim}120$ Myr) and Praesepe cluster (${\sim}670$ Myr). Using the newly commissioned NEID spectrograph, we constrain the stellar obliquity of TOI-1268 via the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect from both radial velocity (RV) and Doppler Tomography (DT) signals. The 3$σ$ upper bounds of the projected stellar obliquity $|λ|$ from both models are below 60$^\circ$. The large host star separation ($a/R_\star {\sim} 17$), combined with the system's young age, makes it unlikely that the planet has realigned its host star. The stellar obliquity measurement of TOI-1268 probes the architecture of a young gas giant beyond the reach of tidal realignment ($a/R_\star {\gtrsim} 10$) and reveals an aligned or slightly misaligned system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project II. State of the Field in Disentangling Photospheric Velocities

Measured spectral shifts due to intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., pulsations, granulation) and activity (e.g., spots, plages) are the largest source of error for extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) exoplanet detection. Several methods are designed to disentangle stellar signals from true center-of-mass shifts due to planets. The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project (ESSP) presents a self-consistent comparison of 22 different methods tested on the same extreme-precision spectroscopic data from EXPRES. Methods derived new activity indicators, constructed models for mapping an indicator to the needed RV correction, or separated out shape- and shift-driven RV components. Since no ground truth is known when using real data, relative method performance is assessed using the total and nightly scatter of returned RVs and agreement between the results of different methods. Nearly all submitted methods return a lower RV RMS than classic linear decorrelation, but no method is yet consistently reducing the RV RMS to sub-meter-per-second levels. There is a concerning lack of agreement between the RVs returned by different methods. These results suggest that continued progress in this field necessitates increased interpretability of methods, high-cadence data to capture stellar signals at all timescales, and continued tests like the ESSP using consistent data sets with more advanced metrics for method performance. Future comparisons should make use of various well-characterized data sets -- such as solar data or data with known injected planetary and/or stellar signals -- to better understand method performance and whether planetary signals are preserved.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A hot Mars-sized exoplanet transiting an M dwarf

We validate the planetary nature of an ultra-short period planet orbiting the M dwarf KOI-4777. We use a combination of space-based photometry from Kepler, high-precision, near-infrared Doppler spectroscopy from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder, and adaptive optics imaging to characterize this system. KOI-4777.01 is a Mars-sized exoplanet ($\mathrm{R}_{p}=0.51 \pm 0.03R_{\oplus}$) orbiting the host star every 0.412-days ($\sim9.9$-hours). This is the smallest validated ultra-short period planet known and we see no evidence for additional massive companions using our HPF RVs. We constrain the upper $3σ$ mass to $M_{p}<0.34~\mathrm{M_\oplus}$ by assuming the planet is less dense than iron. Obtaining a mass measurement for KOI-4777.01 is beyond current instrumental capabilities.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

$\texttt{GRASS}$: Distinguishing Planet-induced Doppler Signatures from Granulation with a Synthetic Spectra Generator

Owing to recent advances in radial-velocity instrumentation and observation techniques, the detection of Earth-mass planets around Sun-like stars may soon be primarily limited by intrinsic stellar variability. Several processes contribute to this variability, including starspots, pulsations, and granulation. Although many previous studies have focused on techniques to mitigate signals from pulsations and other types of magnetic activity, granulation noise has to date only been partially addressed by empirically-motivated observation strategies and magnetohydrodynamic simulations. To address this deficit, we present the GRanulation And Spectrum Simulator ($\texttt{GRASS}$), a new tool designed to create time-series synthetic spectra with granulation-driven variability from spatially- and temporally-resolved observations of solar absorption lines. In this work, we present $\texttt{GRASS}$, detail its methodology, and validate its model against disk-integrated solar observations. As a first-of-its-kind empirical model for spectral variability due to granulation in a star with perfectly known center-of-mass radial-velocity behavior, $\texttt{GRASS}$ is an important tool for testing new methods of disentangling granular line-shape changes from true Doppler shifts.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Friends and Foes: Conditional Occurrence Rates of Exoplanet Companions and their Impact on Radial Velocity Follow-up Surveys

Population studies of Kepler's multi-planet systems have revealed a surprising degree of structure in their underlying architectures. Information from a detected transiting planet can be combined with a population model to make predictions about the presence and properties of additional planets in the system. Using a statistical model for the distribution of planetary systems (He et al. 2020; arXiv:2007.14473), we compute the conditional occurrence of planets as a function of the period and radius of Kepler-detectable planets. About half ($0.52 \pm 0.03$) of the time, the detected planet is not the planet with the largest semi-amplitude $K$ in the system, so efforts to measure the mass of the transiting planet with radial velocity (RV) follow-up will have to contend with additional planetary signals in the data. We simulate RV observations to show that assuming a single-planet model to measure the $K$ of the transiting planet often requires significantly more observations than in the ideal case with no additional planets, due to the systematic errors from unseen planet companions. Our results show that planets around 10-day periods with $K$ close to the single-measurement RV precision ($σ_{1,\rm obs}$) typically require $\sim 100$ observations to measure their $K$ to within 20% error. For a next generation RV instrument achieving $σ_{1,\rm obs} = 10$ cm/s, about $\sim 200$ ($600$) observations are needed to measure the $K$ of a transiting Venus in a Kepler-like system to better than 20% (10%) error, which is $\sim 2.3$ times as many as what would be necessary for a Venus without any planetary companions.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Extreme Precision Radial Velocity Working Group Final Report

Precise mass measurements of exoplanets discovered by the direct imaging or transit technique are required to determine planet bulk properties and potential habitability. Furthermore, it is generally acknowledged that, for the foreseeable future, the Extreme Precision Radial Velocity (EPRV) measurement technique is the only method potentially capable of detecting and measuring the masses and orbits of habitable-zone Earths orbiting nearby F, G, and K spectral-type stars from the ground. In particular, EPRV measurements with a precision of better than approximately 10 cm/s (with a few cm/s stability over many years) are required. Unfortunately, for nearly a decade, PRV instruments and surveys have been unable to routinely reach RV accuracies of less than roughly 1 m/s. Making EPRV science and technology development a critical component of both NASA and NSF program plans is crucial for reaching the goal of detecting potentially habitable Earthlike planets and supporting potential future exoplanet direct imaging missions such as the Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) or the Large Ultraviolet Optical Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR). In recognition of these facts, the 2018 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Exoplanet Science Strategy (ESS) report recommended the development of EPRV measurements as a critical step toward the detection and characterization of habitable, Earth-analog planets. In response to the NAS-ESS recommendation, NASA and NSF commissioned the EPRV Working Group to recommend a ground-based program architecture and implementation plan to achieve the goal intended by the NAS. This report documents the activities, findings, and recommendations of the EPRV Working Group.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Evidence for a Non-Dichotomous Solution to the Kepler Dichotomy: Mutual Inclinations of Kepler Planetary Systems from Transit Duration Variations

Early analyses of exoplanet statistics from the Kepler Mission revealed that a model population of multiple-planet systems with low mutual inclinations (${\sim1^{\circ}-2^{\circ}}$) adequately describes the multiple-transiting systems but underpredicts the number of single-transiting systems. This so-called "Kepler dichotomy" signals the existence of a sub-population of multi-planet systems possessing larger mutual inclinations. However, the details of these inclinations remain uncertain. In this work, we derive constraints on the intrinsic mutual inclination distribution by statistically exploiting Transit Duration Variations (TDVs) of the Kepler planet population. When planetary orbits are mutually inclined, planet-planet interactions cause orbital precession, which can lead to detectable long-term changes in transit durations. These TDV signals are inclination-sensitive and have been detected for roughly two dozen Kepler planets. We compare the properties of the Kepler observed TDV detections to TDV detections of simulated planetary systems constructed from two population models with differing assumptions about the mutual inclination distribution. We find strong evidence for a continuous distribution of relatively low mutual inclinations that is well-characterized by a power law relationship between the median mutual inclination ($\tildeμ_{i,n}$) and the intrinsic multiplicity ($n$): $\tildeμ_{i,n} = \tildeμ_{i,5}(n/5)^α$, where $\tildeμ_{i,5} = 1.10^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ and $α= -1.73^{+0.09}_{-0.08}$. These results suggest that late-stage planet assembly and possibly stellar oblateness are the dominant physical origins for the excitation of Kepler planet mutual inclinations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Following up the Kepler field: Masses of Targets for transit timing and atmospheric characterization

We identify a set of planetary systems observed by Kepler that merit transit timing variation (TTV) analysis given the orbital periods of transiting planets, the uncertainties for their transit times and the number of transits observed during the Kepler mission. We confirm the planetary nature of 4 KOIs within multicandidate systems. We forward model each of the planetary systems identified to determine which systems are likely to yield mass constraints that may be significantly improved upon with follow-up transit observations. We find projected TTVs diverge by more than 90 minutes after 6000 days in 27 systems, including 22 planets with orbital periods exceeding 25 days. Such targets would benefit the most from additional transit timing data. TTV follow-up could push exoplanet characterization to lower masses, at greater orbital periods and at cooler equilibrium temperatures than is currently possible from the Kepler dataset alone. Combining TTVs and recently revised stellar parameters, we characterize an ensemble of homogeneously selected planets and identify planets in the Kepler field with large enough estimated transmission annuli for atmospheric characterization with JWST.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Geometric adaptive Monte Carlo in random environment

Manifold Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been introduced to sample more effectively from challenging target densities exhibiting multiple modes or strong correlations. Such algorithms exploit the local geometry of the parameter space, thus enabling chains to achieve a faster convergence rate when measured in number of steps. However, acquiring local geometric information can often increase computational complexity per step to the extent that sampling from high-dimensional targets becomes inefficient in terms of total computational time. This paper analyzes the computational complexity of manifold Langevin Monte Carlo and proposes a geometric adaptive Monte Carlo sampler aimed at balancing the benefits of exploiting local geometry with computational cost to achieve a high effective sample size for a given computational cost. The suggested sampler is a discrete-time stochastic process in random environment. The random environment allows to switch between local geometric and adaptive proposal kernels with the help of a schedule. An exponential schedule is put forward that enables more frequent use of geometric information in early transient phases of the chain, while saving computational time in late stationary phases. The average complexity can be manually set depending on the need for geometric exploitation posed by the underlying model.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

A Harsh Test of Far-Field Scrambling with the Habitable Zone Planet Finder and the Hobby Eberly Telescope

The Habitable zone Planet Finder (HPF) is a fiber fed precise radial velocity spectrograph at the 10 m Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET). Due to its fixed altitude design, the HET pupil changes appreciably across a track, leading to significant changes of the fiber far-field illumination. HPF's fiber scrambler is designed to suppress the impact of these illumination changes on the radial velocities -- but the residual impact on the radial velocity measurements has yet to be probed on sky. We use GJ 411, a bright early type (M2) M dwarf to probe the effects of far-field input trends due to these pupil variations on HPF radial velocities (RVs). These large changes ($\sim$ 2x) in pupil area and centroid present a harsh test of HPF's far-field scrambling. Our results show that the RVs are effectively decoupled from these extreme far-field input changes due to pupil centroid offsets, attesting to the effectiveness of the scrambler design. This experiment allows us to test the impact of these changes with large pupil variation on-sky, something we would not easily be able to do at a conventional optical telescope. While the pupil and illumination changes expected at these other telescopes are small, scaling from our results enables us to estimate and bound these effects, and show that they are controllable even for the new and next generation of RV instruments in their quest to beat down instrumental noise sources towards the goal of a few cm/s.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A Stellar Activity F-statistic for Exoplanet Surveys (SAFE)

In the search for planets orbiting distant stars the presence of stellar activity in the atmospheres of observed stars can obscure the radial velocity signal used to detect such planets. Furthermore, this stellar activity contamination is set by the star itself and cannot simply be avoided with better instrumentation. Various stellar activity indicators have been developed that may correlate with this contamination. We introduce a new stellar activity indicator called the Stellar Activity F-statistic for Exoplanet surveys (SAFE) that has higher statistical power (i.e., probability of detecting a true stellar activity signal) than many traditional stellar activity indicators in a simulation study of an active region on a Sun-like star with moderate to high signal-to-noise. Also through simulation, the SAFE is demonstrated to be associated with the projected area on the visible side of the star covered by active regions. We also demonstrate that the SAFE detects statistically significant stellar activity in most of the spectra for HD 22049, a star known to have high stellar variability. Additionally, the SAFE is calculated for recent observations of the three low-variability stars HD 34411, HD 10700, and HD 3651, the latter of which is known to have a planetary companion. As expected, the SAFE for these three only occasionally detects activity. Furthermore, initial exploration appears to indicate that the SAFE may be useful for disentangling stellar activity signals from planet-induced Doppler shifts.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Toward Extremely Precise Radial Velocities: II. A Tool For Using Multivariate Gaussian Processes to Model Stellar Activity

The radial velocity method is one of the most successful techniques for the discovery and characterization of exoplanets. Modern spectrographs promise measurement precision of ~0.2-0.5 m/s for an ideal target star. However, the intrinsic variability of stellar spectra can mimic and obscure true planet signals at these levels. Rajpaul et al. (2015) and Jones et al. (2017) proposed applying a physically motivated, multivariate Gaussian process (GP) to jointly model the apparent Doppler shift and multiple indicators of stellar activity as a function of time, so as to separate the planetary signal from various forms of stellar variability. These methods are promising, but performing the necessary calculations can be computationally intensive and algebraically tedious. In this work, we present a flexible and computationally efficient software package, GPLinearOdeMaker.jl, for modeling multivariate time series using a linear combination of univariate GPs and their derivatives. The package allows users to easily and efficiently apply various multivariate GP models and different covariance kernel functions. We demonstrate GPLinearOdeMaker.jl by applying the Jones et al. (2017) model to fit measurements of the apparent Doppler shift and activity indicators derived from simulated active solar spectra time series affected by many evolving star spots. We show how GPLinearOdeMaker.jl makes it easy to explore the effect of different choices for the GP kernel. We find that local kernels could significantly increase the sensitivity and precision of Doppler planet searches relative to the widely used quasi-periodic kernel.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. III: Eccentricity and Mutual Inclination Distributions of AMD-stable Planetary Systems

The angular momentum deficit (AMD) of a planetary system is a measure of its orbital excitation and a predictor of long-term stability. We adopt the AMD-stability criteria to constrain the orbital architectures for exoplanetary systems. Previously, He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019) (arXiv:1907.07773v2) showed through forward modelling (SysSim) that the observed multiplicity distribution can be well reproduced by two populations consisting of a low and a high mutual inclination component. Here, we show that a broad distribution of mutual inclinations arising from systems at the AMD-stability limit can also match the observed Kepler population. We show that distributing a planetary system's maximum AMD amongst its planets results in a multiplicity-dependent distribution of eccentricities and mutual inclinations. Systems with intrinsically more planets have lower median eccentricities and mutual inclinations, and this trend is well described by power-law functions of the intrinsic planet multiplicity ($n$): $\tildeμ_{e,n} \propto n^{-1.74_{-0.07}^{+0.11}}$ and $\tildeμ_{i,n} \propto n^{-1.73_{-0.08}^{+0.09}}$, where $\tildeμ_{e,n}$ and $\tildeμ_{i,n}$ are the medians of the eccentricity and inclination distributions. We also find that intrinsic single planets have higher eccentricities ($σ_{e,1} \sim 0.25$) than multi-planet systems, and that the trends with multiplicity appear in the observed distributions of period-normalized transit duration ratios. We show that the observed preferences for planet size orderings and uniform spacings are more extreme than what can be produced by the detection biases of the Kepler mission alone. Finally, we find that for systems with detected transiting planets between 5 and 10 days, there is another planet with a greater radial velocity signal $\simeq~53\%$ of the time.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. II: An Increase in Inner Planetary System Occurrence Toward Later Spectral Types for Kepler's FGK Dwarfs

The Kepler mission observed thousands of transiting exoplanet candidates around hundreds of thousands of FGK dwarf stars. He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019) (arXiv:1907.07773) applied forward modeling to infer the distribution of intrinsic architectures of planetary systems, developed a clustered Poisson point process model for exoplanetary systems (SysSim) to reproduce the marginal distributions of the observed Kepler population, and they showed that orbital periods and planet radii are clustered within a given planetary system. Here, we extend the clustered model to explore correlations between planetary systems and their host star properties. We split the sample of Kepler FGK dwarfs into two halves and model the fraction of stars with planets (between 0.5-10 $R_\oplus$ and 3--300 days), $f_{\rm swpa}$, as a linear function of the Gaia DR2 color. We confirm previous findings that the occurrence of these planetary systems rises significantly toward later type (redder) stars. The fraction of stars with planets increases from $f_{\rm swpa} = 0.32_{-0.11}^{+0.12}$ for F2V dwarfs to $f_{\rm swpa} = 0.96_{-0.19}^{+0.04}$ for mid K-dwarfs. About half ($f_{\rm swpa} = 0.57_{-0.10}^{+0.14}$) of all solar-type (G2V) dwarfs harbor a planetary system between 3 and 300 days. This simple model can closely match the observed multiplicity distributions of both the bluer and redder halves in our sample, suggesting that the architectures of planetary systems around stars of different spectral types may be similar aside from a shift in the overall fraction of planet hosting stars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia

We infer the number of planets-per-star as a function of orbital period and planet size using $Kepler$ archival data products with updated stellar properties from the $Gaia$ Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars, and provides an infrastructure to use the $Kepler$ results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per $GK$ star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets-per-$GK$ star between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$ and 50 to 300 day orbital periods to have a $68\%$ credible interval of $0.49$ to $0.77$ and a posterior mean of $0.63$. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. (2015) for the same parameter space using the $Q1-Q16$ (previous $Kepler$ planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the $DR25$ catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so on the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space.

astro-ph.EP↗