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Eric Horvitz

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Horvitz.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
arXiv2018

Analysis of Strategy and Spread of Russia-sponsored Content in the US in 2017

The Russia-based Internet Research Agency (IRA) carried out a broad information campaign in the U.S. before and after the 2016 presidential election. The organization created an expansive set of internet properties: web domains, Facebook pages, and Twitter bots, which received traffic via purchased Facebook ads, tweets, and search engines indexing their domains. We investigate the scope of IRA activities in 2017, joining data from Facebook and Twitter with logs from the Internet Explorer 11 and Edge browsers and the Bing.com search engine. The studies demonstrate both the ease with which malicious actors can harness social media and search engines for propaganda campaigns, and the ability to track and understand such activities by fusing content and activity resources from multiple internet services. We show how cross-platform analyses can provide an unprecedented lens on attempts to manipulate opinions and elections in democracies.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2018

Towards Accountable AI: Hybrid Human-Machine Analyses for Characterizing System Failure

As machine learning systems move from computer-science laboratories into the open world, their accountability becomes a high priority problem. Accountability requires deep understanding of system behavior and its failures. Current evaluation methods such as single-score error metrics and confusion matrices provide aggregate views of system performance that hide important shortcomings. Understanding details about failures is important for identifying pathways for refinement, communicating the reliability of systems in different settings, and for specifying appropriate human oversight and engagement. Characterization of failures and shortcomings is particularly complex for systems composed of multiple machine learned components. For such systems, existing evaluation methods have limited expressiveness in describing and explaining the relationship among input content, the internal states of system components, and final output quality. We present Pandora, a set of hybrid human-machine methods and tools for describing and explaining system failures. Pandora leverages both human and system-generated observations to summarize conditions of system malfunction with respect to the input content and system architecture. We share results of a case study with a machine learning pipeline for image captioning that show how detailed performance views can be beneficial for analysis and debugging.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2018

Discovering Blind Spots in Reinforcement Learning

Agents trained in simulation may make errors in the real world due to mismatches between training and execution environments. These mistakes can be dangerous and difficult to discover because the agent cannot predict them a priori. We propose using oracle feedback to learn a predictive model of these blind spots to reduce costly errors in real-world applications. We focus on blind spots in reinforcement learning (RL) that occur due to incomplete state representation: The agent does not have the appropriate features to represent the true state of the world and thus cannot distinguish among numerous states. We formalize the problem of discovering blind spots in RL as a noisy supervised learning problem with class imbalance. We learn models to predict blind spots in unseen regions of the state space by combining techniques for label aggregation, calibration, and supervised learning. The models take into consideration noise emerging from different forms of oracle feedback, including demonstrations and corrections. We evaluate our approach on two domains and show that it achieves higher predictive performance than baseline methods, and that the learned model can be used to selectively query an oracle at execution time to prevent errors. We also empirically analyze the biases of various feedback types and how they influence the discovery of blind spots.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2017

Active Learning amidst Logical Knowledge

Structured prediction is ubiquitous in applications of machine learning such as knowledge extraction and natural language processing. Structure often can be formulated in terms of logical constraints. We consider the question of how to perform efficient active learning in the presence of logical constraints among variables inferred by different classifiers. We propose several methods and provide theoretical results that demonstrate the inappropriateness of employing uncertainty guided sampling, a commonly used active learning method. Furthermore, experiments on ten different datasets demonstrate that the methods significantly outperform alternatives in practice. The results are of practical significance in situations where labeled data is scarce.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2017

Estimating Accuracy from Unlabeled Data: A Probabilistic Logic Approach

We propose an efficient method to estimate the accuracy of classifiers using only unlabeled data. We consider a setting with multiple classification problems where the target classes may be tied together through logical constraints. For example, a set of classes may be mutually exclusive, meaning that a data instance can belong to at most one of them. The proposed method is based on the intuition that: (i) when classifiers agree, they are more likely to be correct, and (ii) when the classifiers make a prediction that violates the constraints, at least one classifier must be making an error. Experiments on four real-world data sets produce accuracy estimates within a few percent of the true accuracy, using solely unlabeled data. Our models also outperform existing state-of-the-art solutions in both estimating accuracies, and combining multiple classifier outputs. The results emphasize the utility of logical constraints in estimating accuracy, thus validating our intuition.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2017

Harnessing the Web for Population-Scale Physiological Sensing: A Case Study of Sleep and Performance

Human cognitive performance is critical to productivity, learning, and accident avoidance. Cognitive performance varies throughout each day and is in part driven by intrinsic, near 24-hour circadian rhythms. Prior research on the impact of sleep and circadian rhythms on cognitive performance has typically been restricted to small-scale laboratory-based studies that do not capture the variability of real-world conditions, such as environmental factors, motivation, and sleep patterns in real-world settings. Given these limitations, leading sleep researchers have called for larger in situ monitoring of sleep and performance. We present the largest study to date on the impact of objectively measured real-world sleep on performance enabled through a reframing of everyday interactions with a web search engine as a series of performance tasks. Our analysis includes 3 million nights of sleep and 75 million interaction tasks. We measure cognitive performance through the speed of keystroke and click interactions on a web search engine and correlate them to wearable device-defined sleep measures over time. We demonstrate that real-world performance varies throughout the day and is influenced by both circadian rhythms, chronotype (morning/evening preference), and prior sleep duration and timing. We develop a statistical model that operationalizes a large body of work on sleep and performance and demonstrates that our estimates of circadian rhythms, homeostatic sleep drive, and sleep inertia align with expectations from laboratory-based sleep studies. Further, we quantify the impact of insufficient sleep on real-world performance and show that two consecutive nights with less than six hours of sleep are associated with decreases in performance which last for a period of six days. This work demonstrates the feasibility of using online interactions for large-scale physiological sensing.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2016

Identifying Unknown Unknowns in the Open World: Representations and Policies for Guided Exploration

Predictive models deployed in the real world may assign incorrect labels to instances with high confidence. Such errors or unknown unknowns are rooted in model incompleteness, and typically arise because of the mismatch between training data and the cases encountered at test time. As the models are blind to such errors, input from an oracle is needed to identify these failures. In this paper, we formulate and address the problem of informed discovery of unknown unknowns of any given predictive model where unknown unknowns occur due to systematic biases in the training data. We propose a model-agnostic methodology which uses feedback from an oracle to both identify unknown unknowns and to intelligently guide the discovery. We employ a two-phase approach which first organizes the data into multiple partitions based on the feature similarity of instances and the confidence scores assigned by the predictive model, and then utilizes an explore-exploit strategy for discovering unknown unknowns across these partitions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our framework by varying the underlying causes of unknown unknowns across various applications. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first algorithmic approach to the problem of discovering unknown unknowns of predictive models.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2016

Long-Term Trends in the Public Perception of Artificial Intelligence

Analyses of text corpora over time can reveal trends in beliefs, interest, and sentiment about a topic. We focus on views expressed about artificial intelligence (AI) in the New York Times over a 30-year period. General interest, awareness, and discussion about AI has waxed and waned since the field was founded in 1956. We present a set of measures that captures levels of engagement, measures of pessimism and optimism, the prevalence of specific hopes and concerns, and topics that are linked to discussions about AI over decades. We find that discussion of AI has increased sharply since 2009, and that these discussions have been consistently more optimistic than pessimistic. However, when we examine specific concerns, we find that worries of loss of control of AI, ethical concerns for AI, and the negative impact of AI on work have grown in recent years. We also find that hopes for AI in healthcare and education have increased over time.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2016

On Human Intellect and Machine Failures: Troubleshooting Integrative Machine Learning Systems

We study the problem of troubleshooting machine learning systems that rely on analytical pipelines of distinct components. Understanding and fixing errors that arise in such integrative systems is difficult as failures can occur at multiple points in the execution workflow. Moreover, errors can propagate, become amplified or be suppressed, making blame assignment difficult. We propose a human-in-the-loop methodology which leverages human intellect for troubleshooting system failures. The approach simulates potential component fixes through human computation tasks and measures the expected improvements in the holistic behavior of the system. The method provides guidance to designers about how they can best improve the system. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an automated image captioning system that has been pressed into real-world use.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2016

Influence of Pokémon Go on Physical Activity: Study and Implications

Physical activity helps people maintain a healthy weight and reduces the risk for several chronic diseases. Although this knowledge is widely recognized, adults and children in many countries around the world do not get recommended amounts of physical activity. While many interventions are found to be ineffective at increasing physical activity or reaching inactive populations, there have been anecdotal reports of increased physical activity due to novel mobile games that embed game play in the physical world. The most recent and salient example of such a game is Pokémon Go, which has reportedly reached tens of millions of users in the US and worldwide. We study the effect of Pokémon Go on physical activity through a combination of signals from large-scale corpora of wearable sensor data and search engine logs for 32 thousand users over a period of three months. Pokémon Go players are identified through search engine queries and activity is measured through accelerometry. We find that Pokémon Go leads to significant increases in physical activity over a period of 30 days, with particularly engaged users (i.e., those making multiple search queries for details about game usage) increasing their activity by 1473 steps a day on average, a more than 25% increase compared to their prior activity level ($p<10^{-15}$). In the short time span of the study, we estimate that Pokémon Go has added a total of 144 billion steps to US physical activity. Furthermore, Pokémon Go has been able to increase physical activity across men and women of all ages, weight status, and prior activity levels showing this form of game leads to increases in physical activity with significant implications for public health. We find that Pokémon Go is able to reach low activity populations while all four leading mobile health apps studied in this work largely draw from an already very active population.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2016

Toward a Science of Autonomy for Physical Science: Healthcare

In Star Wars Episode V, we see Luke Skywalker being repaired by a surgical robot. In the context of the movie, this doesn't seem surprising or disturbing. After all, it is a long, long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away. It would never happen here. Or could it? Would we accept a robot as our doctor, our surgeon, or our in-home care specialist? Imagine walking into an operating room and no one was there. You are instructed to lie down on the operating table, and the OR system takes over. Would you feel comfortable with this possible future world?

cs.CY↗
arXiv2016

Identifying Dogmatism in Social Media: Signals and Models

We explore linguistic and behavioral features of dogmatism in social media and construct statistical models that can identify dogmatic comments. Our model is based on a corpus of Reddit posts, collected across a diverse set of conversational topics and annotated via paid crowdsourcing. We operationalize key aspects of dogmatism described by existing psychology theories (such as over-confidence), finding they have predictive power. We also find evidence for new signals of dogmatism, such as the tendency of dogmatic posts to refrain from signaling cognitive processes. When we use our predictive model to analyze millions of other Reddit posts, we find evidence that suggests dogmatism is a deeper personality trait, present for dogmatic users across many different domains, and that users who engage on dogmatic comments tend to show increases in dogmatic posts themselves.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2015

Learning to Hire Teams

Crowdsourcing and human computation has been employed in increasingly sophisticated projects that require the solution of a heterogeneous set of tasks. We explore the challenge of building or hiring an effective team, for performing tasks required for such projects on an ongoing basis, from an available pool of applicants or workers who have bid for the tasks. The recruiter needs to learn workers' skills and expertise by performing online tests and interviews, and would like to minimize the amount of budget or time spent in this process before committing to hiring the team. How can one optimally spend budget to learn the expertise of workers as part of recruiting a team? How can one exploit the similarities among tasks as well as underlying social ties or commonalities among the workers for faster learning? We tackle these decision-theoretic challenges by casting them as an instance of online learning for best action selection. We present algorithms with PAC bounds on the required budget to hire a near-optimal team with high confidence. Furthermore, we consider an embedding of the tasks and workers in an underlying graph that may arise from task similarities or social ties, and that can provide additional side-observations for faster learning. We then quantify the improvement in the bounds that we can achieve depending on the characteristic properties of this graph structure. We evaluate our methodology on simulated problem instances as well as on real-world crowdsourcing data collected from the oDesk platform. Our methodology and results present an interesting direction of research to tackle the challenges faced by a recruiter for contract-based crowdsourcing.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2015

Information Gathering in Networks via Active Exploration

How should we gather information in a network, where each node's visibility is limited to its local neighborhood? This problem arises in numerous real-world applications, such as surveying and task routing in social networks, team formation in collaborative networks and experimental design with dependency constraints. Often the informativeness of a set of nodes can be quantified via a submodular utility function. Existing approaches for submodular optimization, however, require that the set of all nodes that can be selected is known ahead of time, which is often unrealistic. In contrast, we propose a novel model where we start our exploration from an initial node, and new nodes become visible and available for selection only once one of their neighbors has been chosen. We then present a general algorithm NetExp for this problem, and provide theoretical bounds on its performance dependent on structural properties of the underlying network. We evaluate our methodology on various simulated problem instances as well as on data collected from social question answering system deployed within a large enterprise.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2015

Metareasoning for Planning Under Uncertainty

The conventional model for online planning under uncertainty assumes that an agent can stop and plan without incurring costs for the time spent planning. However, planning time is not free in most real-world settings. For example, an autonomous drone is subject to nature's forces, like gravity, even while it thinks, and must either pay a price for counteracting these forces to stay in place, or grapple with the state change caused by acquiescing to them. Policy optimization in these settings requires metareasoning---a process that trades off the cost of planning and the potential policy improvement that can be achieved. We formalize and analyze the metareasoning problem for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Our work subsumes previously studied special cases of metareasoning and shows that in the general case, metareasoning is at most polynomially harder than solving MDPs with any given algorithm that disregards the cost of thinking. For reasons we discuss, optimal general metareasoning turns out to be impractical, motivating approximations. We present approximate metareasoning procedures which rely on special properties of the BRTDP planning algorithm and explore the effectiveness of our methods on a variety of problems.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2015

Inferring and Learning from Neuronal Correspondences

We introduce and study methods for inferring and learning from correspondences among neurons. The approach enables alignment of data from distinct multiunit studies of nervous systems. We show that the methods for inferring correspondences combine data effectively from cross-animal studies to make joint inferences about behavioral decision making that are not possible with the data from a single animal. We focus on data collection, machine learning, and prediction in the representative and long-studied invertebrate nervous system of the European medicinal leech. Acknowledging the computational intractability of the general problem of identifying correspondences among neurons, we introduce efficient computational procedures for matching neurons across animals. The methods include techniques that adjust for missing cells or additional cells in the different data sets that may reflect biological or experimental variation. The methods highlight the value harnessing inference and learning in new kinds of computational microscopes for multiunit neurobiological studies.

q-bio.NC↗