arXiv subjects

Eric Thrane

Publications and source records attributed to Eric Thrane.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

The MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array: Maps of the gravitational-wave sky with the 4.5 year data release

In an accompanying publication, the MeerKAT Pulsar Timing Array (MPTA) collaboration reports tentative evidence for the presence of a stochastic gravitational-wave background, following observations of similar signals from the European and Indian Pulsar Timing Arrays, NANOGrav, the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array and the Chinese Pulsar Timing Array. If such a gravitational-wave background signal originates from a population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries, the signal may be anisotropically distributed on the sky. In this Letter we evaluate the anisotropy of the MPTA signal using a spherical harmonic decomposition. We discuss complications arising from the covariance between pulsar pairs and regularisation of the Fisher matrix. Applying our method to the 4.5 yr dataset, we obtain two forms of sky maps for the three most sensitive MPTA frequency bins between 7 -21 nHz. Our "clean maps'' estimate the distribution of gravitational-wave strain power with minimal assumptions. Our radiometer maps answer the question: is there a statistically significant point source? We find a noteworthy hotspot in the 7 nHz clean map with a $p$-factor of $p=0.015$ (not including trial factors). Future observations are required to determine if this hotspot is of astrophysical origin.

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arXiv2024

You only thermoelastically deform once: Point Absorber Detection in LIGO Test Masses with YOLO

Current and future gravitational-wave observatories rely on large-scale, precision interferometers to detect the gravitational-wave signals. However, microscopic imperfections on the test masses, known as point absorbers, cause problematic heating of the optic via absorption of the high-power laser beam, which results in diminished sensitivity, lock loss, or even permanent damage. Consistent monitoring of the test masses is crucial for detecting, characterizing, and ultimately removing point absorbers. We present a machine-learning algorithm for detecting point absorbers based on the object-detection algorithm You Only Look Once (YOLO). The algorithm can perform this task in situ while the detector is in operation. We validate our algorithm by comparing it with past reports of point absorbers identified by humans at LIGO. The algorithm confidently identifies the same point absorbers as humans with minimal false positives. It also identifies some point absorbers previously not identified by humans, which we confirm with human follow-up. We highlight the potential of machine learning in commissioning efforts.

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arXiv2024

No evidence for a dip in the binary black hole mass spectrum

Stellar models indicate that the core compactness of a star, which is a common proxy for its explodability in a supernova, does not increase monotonically with the star's mass. Rather, the core compactness dips sharply over a range of carbon-oxygen core masses; this range may be somewhat sensitive to the star's metallicity and evolutionary history. Stars in this compactness dip are expected to experience supernovae leaving behind neutron stars, whereas stars on either side of this range are expected to form black holes. This results in a hypothetical mass range in which black holes should seldom form. Quantitatively, when applied to binary stripped stars, these models predict a dearth of binary black holes with component masses $\approx 10 M_\odot - 15 M_\odot$. The population of gravitational-wave signals indicates potential evidence for a dip in the distribution of chirp masses of merging binary black holes near $\approx 10 M_\odot - 12 M_\odot$. This feature could be linked to the hypothetical component mass gap described above, but this interpretation depends on what assumptions are made of the binaries' mass ratios. Here, we directly probe the distribution of binary black hole component masses to look for evidence of a gap. We find no evidence for this feature using data from the third gravitational-wave transient catalogue (GWTC-3). If this gap does exist in nature, we find that it is unlikely to be resolvable by the end of the current (fourth) LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run.

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arXiv2024

Striking the right tone: toward a self-consistent framework for measuring black hole ringdowns

The ringdown portion of a binary black hole merger consists of a sum of modes, each containing an infinite number of tones that are exponentially damped sinusoids. In principle, these can be measured as gravitational-waves with observatories like LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA, however in practice it is unclear how many tones can be meaningfully resolved. We investigate the consistency and resolvability of the overtones of the quadrupolar $\ell = m = 2$ mode by starting at late times when the gravitational waveform is expected to be well-approximated by the $\ell m n = 220$ tone alone. We present a Bayesian inference framework to measure the tones in numerical relativity data. We measure tones at different start times, checking for consistency: we classify a tone as stably recovered if and only if the 95\% credible intervals for amplitude and phase at time $t$ overlap with the credible intervals at all subsequent times. We test a set of tones including the first four overtones of the fundamental mode and the 320 tone and find that the 220 and 221 tones can be measured consistently with the inclusion of additional overtones. The 222 tone measurements can be stabilised when we include the 223 tone, but only in a narrow time window, after which it is too weak to measure. The 223 tone recovery appears to be unstable, and does not become stable with the introduction of the 224 tone. We find that $N=3$ tones can be stably recovered simultaneously. However, when analysing $N \geq 4$ tones, the amplitude of one tone is consistent with zero. Thus, within our framework, one can identify only $N=3$ tones with non-zero amplitude that are simultaneously stable.

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arXiv2024

Does spacetime have memories? Searching for gravitational-wave memory in the third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational-wave transient catalogue

Gravitational-wave memory is a non-linear effect predicted by general relativity that remains undetected. We apply a Bayesian analysis framework to search for gravitational-wave memory using binary black hole mergers in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's third gravitational-wave transient catalogue. We obtain a Bayes factor of $\ln \text{BF}=0.01$, in favour of the no-memory hypothesis, which implies that we are unable to measure memory with currently available data. This is consistent with previous work, suggesting that a catalogue of $\mathcal{O}(2000)$ binary black hole mergers is needed to detect memory. We look for new physics by allowing the memory amplitude to deviate from the prediction of general relativity by a multiplicative factor $A$. We obtain an upper limit of $A<23$ ($95\%$ credibility).

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arXiv2024

Systematic errors in searches for nanohertz gravitational waves

A number of pulsar timing arrays have recently reported preliminary evidence for the existence of a nanohertz frequency gravitational-wave background. These analyses rely on detailed noise analyses, which are inherently complex due to the many astrophysical and instrumental factors that contribute to the pulsar noise budget. We investigate whether realistic systematic errors, stemming from misspecified noise models that fail to capture salient features of the pulsar timing noise, could bias the evidence for gravitational waves. We consider two plausible forms of misspecification: small unmodeled jumps and unmodeled chromatic noise. Using simulated data, we calculate the distribution of the commonly used optimal statistic with no signal present and using plausibly misspecified noise models. By comparing the optimal statistic distribution with the distribution created using ``quasi-resampling'' techniques (such as sky scrambles and phase shifts), we endeavor to determine the extent to which plausible misspecification might lead to a false positive. The results are reassuring: we find that quasi-resampling techniques tend to underestimate the significance of pure-noise datasets. We conclude that recent reported evidence for a nanohertz gravitational-wave background is likely robust to the most obvious sources of systematic errors; if anything, the significance of the signal is potentially underestimated.

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arXiv2024

GammaBayes: a Bayesian pipeline for dark matter detection with CTA

We present GammaBayes, a Bayesian Python package for dark matter detection with the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). GammaBayes takes as input the CTA measurements of gamma rays and a user-specified dark-matter particle model. It outputs the posterior distribution for parameters of the dark-matter model including the velocity-averaged cross section for dark-matter self interactions $\langleσv\rangle$ and the dark-matter mass $m_χ$. It also outputs the Bayesian evidence, which can be used for model selection. We demonstrate GammaBayes using 525 hours of simulated data, corresponding to $10^8$ observed gamma-ray events. The vast majority of this simulated data consists of noise, but $100000$ events arise from the annihilation of scalar singlet dark matter with $m_χ= 1$ TeV. We recover the dark matter mass within a 95% credible interval of $m_χ\sim 0.96-1.07$ TeV. Meanwhile, the velocity averaged cross section is constrained to $\langleσv\rangle \sim 1.4-2.1\times10^{-25}$ cm$^3$ s$^{-1}$ (95% credibility). This is equivalent to measuring the number of dark-matter annihilation events to be $N_S \sim 1.1_{-0.2}^{+0.2} \times 10^5$. The no-signal hypothesis $\langle σv \rangle=0$ is ruled out with about $5σ$ credibility. We discuss how GammaBayes can be extended to include more sophisticated signal and background models and the computational challenges that must be addressed to facilitate these upgrades. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/lpin0002/GammaBayes.

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arXiv2024

Which black hole is spinning? Probing the origin of black-hole spin with gravitational waves

Theoretical studies of angular momentum transport suggest that isolated stellar-mass black holes are born with negligible dimensionless spin magnitudes $χ\lesssim 0.01$. However, recent gravitational-wave observations indicate $\gtrsim 40\%$ of binary black hole systems contain at least one black hole with a non-negligible spin magnitude. One explanation is that the first-born black hole spins up the stellar core of what will become the second-born black hole through tidal interactions. Typically, the second-born black hole is the ``secondary'' (less-massive) black hole, though, it may become the ``primary'' (more-massive) black hole through a process known as mass-ratio reversal. We investigate this hypothesis by analysing data from the third gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-3) using a ``single-spin'' framework in which only one black hole may spin in any given binary. Given this assumption, we show that at least $28\%$ (90% credibility) of the LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA binaries contain a primary with significant spin, possibly indicative of mass-ratio reversal. We find no evidence for binaries that contain a secondary with significant spin. However, the single-spin framework is moderately disfavoured (natural log Bayes factor $\ln B = 3.1$) when compared to a model that allows both black holes to spin. If future studies can firmly establish that most merging binaries contain two spinning black holes, it may call into question our understanding of formation mechanisms for binary black holes or the efficiency of angular momentum transport in black hole progenitors.

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arXiv2024

Precision constraints on the neutron star equation of state with third-generation gravitational-wave observatories

It is currently unknown how matter behaves at the extreme densities found within the cores of neutron stars. Measurements of the neutron star equation of state probe nuclear physics that is otherwise inaccessible in a laboratory setting. Gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers encode details about this physics, allowing the equation of state to be inferred. Planned third-generation gravitational-wave observatories, having vastly improved sensitivity, are expected to provide tight constraints on the neutron star equation of state. We combine simulated observations of binary neutron star mergers by the third-generation observatories Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope to determine future constraints on the equation of state across a plausible neutron star mass range. In one year of operation, a network consisting of one Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope is expected to detect $\gtrsim 3\times 10^5$ binary neutron star mergers. By considering only the 75 loudest events, we show that such a network will be able to constrain the neutron star radius to at least $\lesssim 200$ m (90% credibility) in the mass range $1-1.97$ $M_{\odot}$ -- about ten times better than current constraints from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA and NICER. The constraint is $\lesssim 75$ m (90% credibility) near $1.4-1.6$ $M_{\odot}$ where we assume the the binary neutron star mass distribution is peaked. This constraint is driven primarily from the loudest $\sim 20$ events.

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arXiv2023

Evidence for a correlation between binary black hole mass ratio and black-hole spins

The astrophysical origins of the binary black hole systems seen with gravitational waves are still not well understood. However, features in the distribution of black-hole masses, spins, redshifts, and eccentricities provide clues into how these systems form. Much has been learned by investigating these distributions one parameter at a time. However, we can extract additional information by studying the covariance between pairs of parameters. Previous work has shown preliminary support for an anti-correlation between mass ratio $q \equiv m_2/m_1$ and effective inspiral spin $χ_\mathrm{eff}$ in the binary black hole population. In this study, we test for the existence of this anti-correlation using updated data from the third gravitational wave transient catalogue (GWTC-3) and improve our copula-based framework to employ a more robust model for black-hole spins. We find evidence for an anti-correlation in $(q, χ_\mathrm{eff})$ with 99.7% credibility. This may imply high common-envelope efficiencies, stages of super-Eddington accretion, or a tendency for binary black hole systems to undergo mass-ratio reversal during isolated evolution. Covariance in $(q,χ_\mathrm{eff})$ may also be used to investigate the physics of tidal spin-up as well as the properties of binary-black-hole-forming active galactic nuclei.

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arXiv2023

Multi-messenger astronomy with a Southern-Hemisphere gravitational-wave observatory

Joint observations of gravitational waves and electromagnetic counterparts will answer questions about cosmology, gamma-ray bursts, and the behaviour of matter at supranuclear densities. The addition of a Southern-Hemisphere gravitational-wave observatory to proposed global networks creates a longer baseline, which is beneficial for sky localisation. We analyse how an observatory in Australia can enhance the multi-messenger astronomy capabilities of future networks. We estimate the number of binary neutron star mergers with joint observations of gravitational waves and kilonova counterparts detectable by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. First, we consider a network of upgrades to current observatories. Adding an Australian observatory to a three-observatory network (comprising two observatories in the USA and one in Europe) boosts the rate of joint observations from $2.5^{+4.5}_{-2.0}$ per year to $5.6^{+10}_{-4.5}$ per year (a factor of two improvement). Then, we consider a network of next-generation observatories. Adding a $20$ km Australian observatory to a global network of a Cosmic Explorer $40$ km in the USA and an Einstein Telescope in Europe only marginally increases the rate from $40^{+71}_{-32}$ per year to $44^{+79}_{-35}$ per year (a factor of 1.1 improvement). The addition of an Australian observatory, however, ensures that at least two observatories are online far more often. When the Cosmic Explorer $40$ km is offline for a major upgrade, the Australian observatory increases the joint observation rate from $0.5^{+0.8}_{-0.4}$ per year to $38^{+68}_{-30}$ per year (a factor of 82 improvement). When the Einstein Telescope is offline, the joint observation rate increases from $0.2^{+0.3}_{-0.1}$ per year to $19^{+34}_{-15}$ per year (a factor of 113 improvement). We sketch out the broader science case for a Southern-Hemisphere gravitational-wave observatory.

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arXiv2023

Toward robust detections of nanohertz gravitational waves

The recent observation of a common red-noise process in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that the detection of nanohertz gravitational waves might be around the corner. However, in order to confidently attribute this red process to gravitational waves, one must observe the Hellings-Downs curve -- the telltale angular correlation function associated with a gravitational-wave background. This effort is complicated by the complex modelling of pulsar noise. Without proper care, mis-specified noise models can lead to false-positive detections. Background estimation using bootstrap methods such as sky scrambles and phase shifts, which use the data to characterize the noise, are therefore important tools for assessing significance. We investigate the ability of current PTA experiments to estimate their background with "quasi-independent" scrambles -- characterized by a statistical "match" below the fiducial value: $|M|<0.1$. We show that sky scrambling is affected by "saturation" after $O(10)$ quasi-independent realizations; subsequent scrambles are no longer quasi-independent. We show phase scrambling saturates after $O(100)$ quasi-independent realizations. With so few independent scrambles, it is difficult to make reliable statements about the $\gtrsim 5 σ$ tail of the null distribution of the detection statistic. We discuss various methods by which one may increase the number of independent scrambles. We also consider an alternative approach wherein one re-frames the background estimation problem so that the significance is calculated using statistically dependent scrambles. The resulting $p$-value is in principle well-defined but may be susceptible to failure if assumptions about the data are incorrect.

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arXiv2023

Search for an isotropic gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar timing arrays aim to detect nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). A background of GWs modulates pulsar arrival times and manifests as a stochastic process, common to all pulsars, with a signature spatial correlation. Here we describe a search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using observations of 30 millisecond pulsars from the third data release of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA), which spans 18 years. Using current Bayesian inference techniques we recover and characterize a common-spectrum noise process. Represented as a strain spectrum $h_c = A(f/1 {\rm yr}^{-1})^α$, we measure $A=3.1^{+1.3}_{-0.9} \times 10^{-15}$ and $α=-0.45 \pm 0.20$ respectively (median and 68% credible interval). For a spectral index of $α=-2/3$, corresponding to an isotropic background of GWs radiated by inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries, we recover an amplitude of $A=2.04^{+0.25}_{-0.22} \times 10^{-15}$. However, we demonstrate that the apparent signal strength is time-dependent, as the first half of our data set can be used to place an upper limit on $A$ that is in tension with the inferred common-spectrum amplitude using the complete data set. We search for spatial correlations in the observations by hierarchically analyzing individual pulsar pairs, which also allows for significance validation through randomizing pulsar positions on the sky. For a process with $α=-2/3$, we measure spatial correlations consistent with a GWB, with an estimated false-alarm probability of $p \lesssim 0.02$ (approx. $2σ$). The long timing baselines of the PPTA and the access to southern pulsars will continue to play an important role in the International Pulsar Timing Array.

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arXiv2023

The International Pulsar Timing Array checklist for the detection of nanohertz gravitational waves

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) provide a way to detect gravitational waves at nanohertz frequencies. In this band, the most likely signals are stochastic, with a power spectrum that rises steeply at lower frequencies. Indeed, the observation of a common red noise process in pulsar-timing data suggests that the first credible detection of nanohertz-frequency gravitational waves could take place within the next few years. The detection process is complicated by the nature of the signals and the noise: the first observational claims will be statistical inferences drawn at the threshold of detectability. To demonstrate that gravitational waves are creating some of the noise in the pulsar-timing data sets, observations must exhibit the Hellings and Downs curve -- the angular correlation function associated with gravitational waves -- as well as demonstrating that there are no other reasonable explanations. To ensure that detection claims are credible, the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) has a formal process to vet results prior to publication. This includes internal sharing of data and processing pipelines between different PTAs, enabling independent cross-checks and validation of results. To oversee and validate any detection claim, the IPTA has also created an eight-member Detection Committee (DC) which includes four independent external members. IPTA members will only publish their results after a formal review process has concluded. This document is the initial DC checklist, describing some of the conditions that should be fulfilled by a credible detection. At the present time none of the PTAs have a detection claim; therefore this document serves as a road map for the future.

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arXiv2023

Improving pulsar-timing solutions through dynamic pulse fitting

Precision pulsar timing is integral to the detection of the nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave background as well as understanding the physics of neutron stars. Conventional pulsar timing often uses fixed time and frequency-averaged templates to determine the pulse times of arrival, which can lead to reduced accuracy when the pulse profile evolves over time. We illustrate a dynamic timing method that fits each observing epoch using basis functions. By fitting each epoch separately, we allow for the evolution of the pulse shape epoch to epoch. We apply our method to PSR J1103$-$5403 and demonstrate that it undergoes mode changing, making it the fourth millisecond pulsar to exhibit such behaviour. Our method, which is able to identify and time a single mode, yields a timing solution with a root-mean-square error of 1.343 $μ\mathrm{s}$, a factor of 1.78 improvement over template fitting on both modes. In addition, the white-noise amplitude is reduced 4.3 times, suggesting that fitting the full data set causes the mode changing to be incorrectly classified as white noise. This reduction in white noise boosts the signal-to-noise ratio of a gravitational-wave background signal for this particular pulsar by 32%. We discuss the possible applications for this method of timing to study pulsar magnetospheres and further improve the sensitivity of searches for nanohertz gravitational waves.

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arXiv2023

Nuclear physics with gravitational waves from neutron stars disrupted by black holes

Gravitational waves from neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers that undergo tidal disruption provide a potential avenue to study the equation of state of neutron stars and hence the behaviour of matter at its most extreme densities. We present a phenomenological model for the gravitational-wave signature of tidal disruption, which allows us to measure the disruption time. We carry out a study with mock data, assuming an optimistically nearby NSBH event with parameters optimised for measuring the tidal disruption. We show that a two-detector network of 40 km Cosmic Explorer instruments can measure the time of disruption with a precision of 0.5 ms, which corresponds to a constraint on the neutron star radius of 0.7 km (90\% credibility). This radius constraint is wider than the constraint obtained by measuring the tidal deformability of the neutron star of the same system during the inspiral. Moreover, the neutron star radius is likely to be more tightly constrained using binary neutron star mergers. While NSBH mergers are important for the information they provide about stellar and binary astrophysics, they are unlikely to provide insights into nuclear physics beyond what we will already know from binary neutron star mergers.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

Probing the efficiency of tidal synchronization in outspiralling double white dwarf binaries with LISA

Compact-object binaries including a white dwarf component are unique among gravitational-wave sources because their evolution is governed not just by general relativity and tides, but also by mass transfer. While the black hole and neutron star binaries observed with ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are driven to inspiral due to the emission of gravitational radiation--manifesting as a "chirp-like" gravitational-wave signal--the astrophysical processes at work in double white dwarf (DWD) systems can cause the inspiral to stall and even reverse into an outspiral. The dynamics of the DWD outspiral thus encode information about tides, which tell us about the behaviour of electron-degenerate matter. We carry out a population study to determine the effect of the strength of tides on the distributions of the DWD binary parameters that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to constrain. We find that the strength of tidal coupling parameterized via the tidal synchronization timescale at the onset of mass transfer affects the distribution of gravitational-wave frequencies and frequency derivatives for detectably mass-transferring DWD systems. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework informed by binary population synthesis simulations, we demonstrate how this parameter can be inferred using LISA observations. By measuring the population properties of DWDs, LISA will be able to probe the behavior of electron-degenerate matter.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

A follow-up on intermediate-mass black hole candidates in the second LIGO-Virgo observing run with the Bayes Coherence Ratio

The detection of an intermediate-mass black hole population ($10^2-10^6$ $M_{\odot}$) will provide clues to their formation environments (e.g., disks of active galactic nuclei, globular clusters) and illuminate a potential pathway to produce supermassive black holes. Ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are sensitive to mergers that can form intermediate-mass black holes weighing up to $\sim 450\ M_{\odot}$. However, ground-based detector data contain numerous incoherent short duration noise transients that can mimic the gravitational-wave signals from merging intermediate-mass black holes, limiting the sensitivity of searches. Here we follow-up on binary black hole merger candidates using a ranking statistic that measures the coherence or incoherence of triggers in multiple-detector data. We use this statistic to rank candidate events, initially identified by all-sky search pipelines, with lab-frame total masses $>55\ M_{\odot}$ using data from LIGO's second observing run. Our analysis does not yield evidence for new intermediate-mass black holes. However, we find support for eight stellar-mass binary black holes not reported in the first LIGO-Virgo gravitational wave transient catalog GWTC-1, seven of which have been previously reported by other catalogs.

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